7/28 (SAR): Lake George S. (G2)
 

8th (4:56) Lake George S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Inner turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 1 House of Grace Dominguez R A bin Suroor Saeed 116 L 8-1
2 2 Crescenda Velasquez C McDonald Michael K 116 L 6-1
3 3 Khancord Kid Maragh R Kimmel John C 122 L 20-1
4 4 Neon Light (GER) Prado E S Wohler Andreas 120 FTL 9-2
5 5 Perfect Shirl Velazquez J R Attfield Roger L 116 L 15-1
6 6 No Explaining (IRE) Lezcano J Attfield Roger L 118 12-1
7 7 Go Ask Alex Court J K Glenney John 120 L 30-1
8 8 Strike It Rich Gomez G K Clement Christophe 122 L 7-2
9 9 Dynazaper Leparoux J R Mott William I 120 L 12-1
10 10 Exclusive Love Bridgmohan S X Casse Mark 116 L 30-1
11 11 Caminadora Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 122 L 12-1
12 12 Bay to Bay Albarado R J Lynch Brian A 120 L 4-1
13 AE Ambitoness Hill C Cesare William 116 L 50-1
14 AE Kittylicious Coa E M Sciacca Gary 116 L 50-1
15 AE Queen Hazel Garcia Alan Ribaudo Robert J 116 L 20-1

Very nice field. . . For betting purposes at least.

No Explaining intrigues me.

There is a horse in here, WHO CANT LOSE. She will not be defeated.

Kittylicious?

German filly is interesting.

She's logical, but I think she'll be overbet.

hahaha, Good one. I LOVE RAMON IN HERE.
She is super talented, so many reassons why she ran the way she did in her last, this is the spot they want to win. She rolls home.

I figured your boy Sciacca gave you a tip over a bowl of Carbonara at King Umberto's.

I don't trust House of Grace at all.

I thought Bay to Bay's last race was a solid effort considering how the race played out.

I agree, I think she'll run very well here. I also think House of Grace is due to rebound in a big way.

Robby Albarado will certainly be due by the time the Lake George rolls around, 0-20 and counting...

NT

Why dont you trust her?

Well. . . For one, I think a lot of the horses she was running against last year have ended up being overrated or disappointments. I guess you could say she needed the last race, but trip wise I didn't think she had any excuse not to blow by those horses - she came to them and they repelled her - and Granted Tiger didn't exactly flatter her today. I also don't think Suroor (Metee) is an upgrade over McPeek. Plus she'll be overbet.

I disagree.... Tapitsfly has yet to run back, so who knows whats up with her. Hatheer just blew a field away at Belmont, Rose Catherine is 2/3 and her loss she DID ALL THE RUNNING EARLY. Het 2 wins have been really strong. Ill give you Smart Seattle though she SUCKS. Really though, what does 2yr old form have to do with now? She is eiether talented or shes not, I think the Suroor is a giant upgrade over Mcpeek.
Last 5 years at Saratoga on turf, pretty simple stat-

Suroor- 7/21, 28%, 52% ITM $2.18 ROI

Mcpeek- 5/39, 9%, 38% ITM $1.58 ROI

Last 5 years at Saratoga, PERIOD

Mcpeek- 12/70, 11%, 41% ITM $1.58 ROI

Suroor- 23/45, 37%, 67% ITM $2.54

Suroor>Mcpeek anyday of the week and ESPECIALLY AT SARATOGA.

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

Again I just threw the 2yr olds out there, what does 2yr old form from 8 months ago have to do with now? The simple minded comment... even for me, is a low blow. You and I both know this, is it safe to say last year you spent more time talking to me about Toga-Belmont then anyone? Im pretty sure my opinion was golden more then once last Summer. Its all good though Brian, Joey understands. Discussing the horses is one thing, I posted some stats, if you wanted to critize it would have been fine, I dont like the shot though.

McPeek has been absolutely slaughtered with older horses at Saratoga over the last five years (5-74, $1.07) and overall he's far from impressive with them (18%, $1.65). In stakes races for older horses over the last five years, McPeek is 14-196, with an ROI of $0.89. Can he train 2YOs? Absolutely, but I'd hate to risk my money on a McPeek 2YO being a good 3YO.

His 2YOs have rarely held their form and his two stable stars from 2009, Beautician and Noble's Promise, are a combined 0-8 this year and Beautician most recently lost at 3/5 to a filly who was beaten by a city block in the CCA Oaks.

Even if his stock is lesser than Godolphin's, which is an understatement, McPeek's numbers with older horses are not exactly the type that make you say, "Wow, no one could improve on those."

There are fewer nicknames assigned be Indian Charlie that are more appropriate than "McPeeked."

NT

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

How are you not a fan? It was the basis of your argument vs me. I dont like HOG is a lock, but I expect a BIG LATE RUN. We will see in about 45 hours if that run is big enough.

Seriously?

DUDE, stop. You love Mcpeek.

Ummmm. . .

What McPeek does with older horses sort of gives you a snapshot of where she was likely headed had she stayed in his barn. I think Godolphin's operation, with all of their flaws, is a clear upgrade over McPeek.

It remains to be seen with her but given how horribly Godolphin has done at the Belmont spring-summer meet over the last two years, and how well they did at Saratoga in 2009, there's reason to believe she'll bounce back in here. Whether she was ever any good is also a question that we'll likely get an answer to on Wednesday.

My thought on her all in all is that her effort last time out gives no indication whatsoever of her ability. She should fare better in an honestly run race but is far from a lock in what looks like a contentious field.

NT

LOL, you know I get excited sometimes. Im betting her to win at anything higher then 7-2.

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

I can see knocking HOG at 3-1 ML, but shes 8-1. Even if she gets bet, I cant see her going under 4-1. I think with Ramon from the rail, shes an ok play.

There are a number of reasons that everyone betting the Lake George should watch the replay of the Regret.

#1 - To see why Julien Leparoux is a vastly superior turf rider to Jose Lezcano, who fought with Queen of the Creek during the first 5 furlongs of that race. Leparoux rode her to perfection this afternoon.

#2 - To see how dreadful Albarado's ride on Dynazaper was. There was absolutely no reason to tackle Go Ask Alex with 5/16ths to go. Of course, then he thinks he's done just inside the eighth pole so he basically stands up before realizing that he might be able to pick up a check, so he flags her a few times with the whip. Leparoux getting back on her is a colossally important rider change.

During all of this, one horse capitalized on the multiple moves that were made into the pacesetter, and that was Caminadora. Could she run well again? Perhaps, but the whole wedding-funeral racing adage is definitely applicable.

NT

4-1 on her in that field is a terrible, terrible play.

Nick are you saying that there's one horse who you can guarantee won't win the Lake George who'll be under 10-1, and that horse is Caminadora? Is this what your saying?

4-1 at worse and I disagree. Like you said this stable is always crushed. When she wins for fun, we will never even get 2-1. I dont get how her last is not a perfect prep, the Jerkens had EVERYTHING her own way. There is real pace in here, and why is it far fetched to say she needed a race? I understand she should outfinish Hot Trip, but she ran hard just to get into contention, no?

dynazaper is the other who caught my eye. i'll definitely watch a replay a few times.

also, how's the weather? will it be firm for the race?

and it just seems an argument could be made for many here, so it may be a good time to try to hit at longer odds.

Danzig... THe weather is great up here, supposed to be perfect the next 5-7 days. Look for fast/firm.

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.

18 1/2?? WTF? 3 1/2

She is the only horse who ran a step against the pace in that BC race, only horse who made up any ground, I believe there is a ton of talent here.

:tro:

Granted Tiger. . . I was saying it half tongue-in-cheek.

The stable has not been the same of late bringing horses back, this was the spot they wanted to win. PERFECT PREP.
Let me ask you something, and try to be serious. If she did not return in that Allowance, and was coming into this off the BC run, what would her fair odds be then?

That's a very good theoretical question. . . I'm proud of you. 12-1 maybe.
But from a practical standpoint - who cares?

Vastly superior? That's a little strong, don't you think Nick?

Kev-

I like Lezcano but I feel like the difference between the two of them is consistency. Leparoux is generally always going to do what will work for a turf horse. Lezcano is a bit more inconsistent and one of his serious issues is with getting horses to relax, something Leparoux excels at. It's not that I think Lezcano is bad and Leparoux good, I think Lezcano is good and Leparoux is excellent.

Lezcano needs to take tomorrow and relax and get a deep breath because the first four days looked a lot like his entire 2009 Saratoga.

NT

IMO Lezcano is very good, but he tends to struggle in big spots. Very good is nice though. Leparoux is young and already one of the best, he is easily top 5 in the US, and one could argue top 3.