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Good God
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkbFXxCW_ps
That's how you win a horse race! Face a field of multiple other very good horses and obliterate them all with ease in fast time. |
Final times for the Ascot card today:
Race 1: 7 furlongs in 1:30.23 Race 2: 7 furlongs in 1:29.72 Race 3: 6 furlongs in 1:14.86 (Group 3) Race 4: 1 mile in 1:41.04 Race 5: 7 furlongs in 1:26.85 Race 6: 12 furlongs in 2:26.78 (Group 1) Race 7: 12 furlongs in 2:32.19 So, he ran 5.41 full seconds faster (or about 33 full lengths) than the winner of the very next race on the same day at the same distance. He took a Group 1 by 11 lengths in track record time in a race where the 2nd place finisher won the Irish Derby last time out. The 3rd place finisher has finished 2nd in the Arc three years in a row - and was beaten just a nose in a Group 1 last time out. The 4th place finisher won a Group 1 race three starts back and was beaten just a neck in a Group 1 last time out. The 5th place finisher won the English Derby by 7 lengths in record time last time out. The winner carried 133lbs - while the winners of the Irish Derby and English Derby both got in at 121lbs ... a 12 pound weight break at the distance of 12 furlongs and still they couldn't get within 11 lengths today? That winner is a total freak. |
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Comparing it to the other 12 furlong race should be in the context that the last race of the day was a Class 4, restricted to 3YO. Not a stellar bunch, but not awful.
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He ran in that spot cause he was afraid of Rachel...
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The winner of the Group 1 ran 60 Beyer points faster than the winner of that class 4. He ran 20 points (11 lengths at 12 furlongs on Turf) faster than the 2nd place finisher... a last out Irish Derby winner. There's absolutely no way the winner didn't run at least a 120 Beyer - and he probably ran a 125 or faster. That was without a doubt one of the greatest performances in the history of horse racing. When Twice Over won the Group 1 Coral Eclipse last week - he went the distance in 2:04.64. That same exact day and at the same distance .. a Class 4, restricted to 3YO went in 2:06.77 and was also won by a male. So .. in Twice Over's case - you have a Group 1 winner running 2.13 seconds faster than a Class 4 3yo handicap winner on the same card. The spread in final time between those two class levels yesterday was an insane 5.41 seconds. This absolutely has the look of a 125 Beyer or higher race - which is close to impossible on turf. It's impossible. I'm going to assume the last out Irish Derby winner who finished 2nd by 11 lengths ran a 105 yesterday. I'm going to assume that Youmzain ran a 98 while finishing 3rd by 14.5 lengths. He's an older male who's made over $6 million in his career. He always fires and he was 2nd by a nose in a Group 1 at the distance 4 weeks ago. He's been in the exacta 3 straight years in the Arc. I'm going to assume Daryakana ran a 98. This horse is a Group 1 winner who had never been beaten more than a 1.5 lengths in an entire career. Was 4th beaten 14.5 lengths there. I'm going to assume the supposed super horse Workforce ran a 94 Beyer. He won the English Derby by 7 lengths last time out. He was 5th beaten 17 lengths. I'm going to assume Confront ran a 84 yesterday. He was a shorter price in the betting than both The Usual QT and Take The Points in a $5 million turf race in Dubai earlier in the year. He finished less than 4 lengths behind both of them in that race. He was last beaten 23 lengths yesterday. I'm going to assume that the winner of the Class 4 3yo race at the same distance yesterday ran a 65 Beyer in victory. He's owned by Shiek Maktoum and is a son of Rahy with a lifetime record of 7-3-1-1. Despite the nice record, he's slower than most NY Bred maiden turfers in this country. I hope this horse stays sound. No horse in history has ever won both the Arc and Breeders Cup Turf ... he's an absolute cinch to win both races if he holds together. |
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some performance alright - my guess is he'll get a RPR of 136 or so which puts him in Sea The Stars territory.
you can pick plenty of holes in the performance though.. I don't think he'll win the Arc |
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Was it that he didn't carry enough weight? (a mere 133lbs giving 12 away to a pair of last-out Derby winners) Was it that he didn't run fast enough? (He shattered the course record and ran 60 Beyer points faster than a 3yo male 3-time winner at the same distance the very next race) Was it that he didn't beat quality competition? (obviously he did - and the 4 other Group 1 winners in the race he beat were all in sharp recent form.) The only slightest thing I can say about his performance that isn't glowing is that the two Derby winners did kind of eye-ball each other a bit early on in the race and he was behind them in a perfect targeting spot. Basically, he had a nice early position. That's the only knock I see... and few look harder for knocks than I do. Brock - I did a whole lot of cringing last year reading all that brutal nonsense about Sea The Stars being possibly the best horse ever. He won the Arc by 2 lengths over Youmzain carrying 9lbs less than Youmzain. Youmzain's form is as fine as ever and he was 3rd by 14+ lengths with a good trip yesterday. Sea The Stars other celebrated wins came by just a length or so at the expense of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman ... about the only two European horses to under perform their odds on Breeders Cup Day over the last two years. They gave him a 138 when he beat Fame And Glory by 2.5 lengths .. and FaG was soundly beaten in his next two races. Sea The Stars had a very royal pedigree, he always fired, he made the best of the fact that European racing wildly favors 3-year-olds over older horses with the extreme weight spreads they impose against olders, but he never delivered a performance even remotely like the one whatever his name is did yesterday. By the way ... in my book, Fame and Glory has the 2nd greatest initals ever for an outstanding horse. Slightly behind Heritage of Gold. HoG and FaG |
Peslier was chilly as can be turning for home. Touched him once on the stretch?
Brilliant to say the least.:tro: |
Here's video of his last start before yesterday ... He's 4-for-4 with all easy wins so far this year
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYaI68fHg80 This was only in a Group 2 ... but it's turned out to be an incredibly key race. * The winner Harbinger took a Group 1 by 11 lengths at 4/1 odds next out * 2nd place finisher has yet to run back * 3rd place finisher beaten 9.5 lengths came back to win a Group 2 at 7/2 odds next time out. * 4th place finisher beaten 11 lengths came back to win a Group 2 by 2.5 lengths at 14/1 next out. * 5th place finisher beaten 12 lengths came back to run 2nd in a Group 2 at 16/1 odds next time out. * 6th place finisher beaten 15.5 lengths came to America and was 4th beaten 3 lengths as a longshot in yesterday's Grade 1 Eddie Read at Del Mar. * 7th place hasn't yet run back * 8th place hasn't yet run back * 9th place beaten 22+ lengths was beaten just 1.25 lengths in a Group 1 next time out * 10th and 11th place both haven't run back yet. |
I think it was a great performance...
I also think Confront set off at a fairly quick gallop and the Derby winners weren't that far off his his hot fractions, giving Harbinger a better chance to run them down. What might me more surprising is that the other decent horses, Daryakana and Youmzain could get no closer. Here, to me, beating them by the margin he did was just as impressive as the others. |
Incredible is right.
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DrugS that's for posting... I heard the race call on "Down the Stretch" yesterday, and the call gives some indication of how impressive the victory was, but that video is unreal.
I still think that Zarkarva was better that Sea the Stars, but I don't recall either of them ever doing anything like that. |
I love the call: "He's going to win by a street."
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thanks for posting the link. very nice effort by the winner. and carrying 133. when's the last time one of our good horses carried 130 or more?
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WOW... that 142 puts him is some pretty serious company.
The following are Timeform's Greatest Racehorses: Highest Timeform Annual Ratings (Flat) 145 Sea Bird II 144 Brigadier Gerard, Tudor Minstrel 142 Abernant, Ribot, Windy City 141 Mill Reef 140 Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium, Shergar, Vaguely Noble, Sea The Stars |
Ooops - ya - mine was Timeform - so not a direct response to brock
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any chance at all he travels to churchill? probably not...
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Weight isnt an issue for me - its WFA so thats what older horses are supposed to carry against 3yos at this time of year, he'll give 8 pounds to these guys in Paris in October. The time isnt as big a deal as you make it to be - the course in Ascot is only 5 or so years old and they are constantly breaking track records at every distance - there isnt that many top quality 12f races at Ascot (i can only think of 2, the King George and the Harwicke - Harbinger won both!). I havent got the chance to watch the race after the King George but the comments are that it was a steady early pace, unlike the feature. The way I saw the race beforehand was I hated all the 3yos in the race - Workforce's derby was (excuse my hyperbole) a big farce of a race - everything just didnt seem right. They smashed the record time despite not going that quickly, I dont buy it at all, my guess is they did something with the railings which made the track shorter than usual. Cape Blanco is an OK horse but not a superstar - yeah he won the Irish Derby but it was a far from vintage race - which seemed to prove to me that this crop of 3yos are well below average. Youmzain got hammered in this race 2 years ago by Duke of Marmalade. He is a ridiculously quirky horse that obviously likes the set up he gets in the Arc. Daryakana looks like countless other older fillies who were top class at 3 but have struggled for form at 4. The disappointing thing about Sea The Stars was he never won by much - he just toyed with his opponents. I do agree that his Irish Champion Stakes win over FAG :) was overrated. Harbinger is a much bigger stronger horse (who won his seasonal debut over 13f) and is the type of horse to ground others into submission and win by distances like we saw yesterday. I do feel im being overly negative here when we saw a brilliant performance but Im yet to be convinced that he is a better racehorse than Shergar, Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium and Sea The Stars.. |
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You mention the Arc ... since 1994, 3-year-olds have won the Arc 13 times while older horses have won the Arc just 3 times. Compare that to our Breeders Cup Races: 3-year-olds have taken 9 BC Classics while older horses have won 17. 3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Turfs while older horses have won 19 races. In one edition a pair of older horses dead-heated - so you could say 20 wins. 3-year-olds have taken 8 BC Miles while older horses have won 18. 3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Distaffs while older horses have won 19. 3-year-olds have taken 6 BC Sprints while older horses have won 20. I think the spread in weight has something to do with that. If you believe Thoro-Graph or the Ragozin sheets, 8 pounds at 12 furlongs equals 3 3/4 lengths ... which is a very significant margin in a turf race. If you believe Beyer's study in Beyer on Speed the impact is about 2.5 lengths. Basically, the older horses give a way a big handicap to 3yo's in a race like the Arc. In the Breeders Cup races - the weight break the 3yo's get is just half of what it is in the Arc. Quote:
I've never been a big fan of speed figures for turf races - but since '91 when they've first been published - the top figure earned in a turf race was a 118. Daylami's BC Turf win was a 118 for instance. Considering the beaten length margins between each horse in the field - and the final time in the next race at the same distance ... it's 100% impossible for the winners Beyer figure to be anything less than a 120 and even when you bake some real caution into the number - it's still in the 125 range .. which makes it literally open lengths better than any single performance we've seen in a turf race since '91 over in North America. You go on about how the two 3yo's are just ok - overrated horses who are far from superstars. How the two big older horses are just honest nothing special types who didn't run to their best. That's fine. Even assuming that all of them didn't fire their good race and ran at a level that might get them beat in one of our typical crappy Grade 3 turf stakes in America .. even assuming that, the winner still ran a better race than any turf winner we've ever seen in America since '91 based on figures. Quote:
I'm of the opinion that's he a rapidly improving 4yo and not a course and trip specialist ... but great horses always have to go and hold form for the public to give them the respect they deserve. What he does in the Arc over possible soft ground, without such a choice early position, for a legendary trainer who I believe still hasn't won the race before ... that is what will ultimately define the horse in the public's eye. In my eye .. what he does in that situation won't matter at all. His performance yesterday was an all-time great treasure - both visually and analytically. I'm not into art or music that much .. but he just painted a picture or put together a song for the ages. His next few pieces of work will determine his place with the great artists, but his piece of work yesterday was as good as it ever gets and nothing can change it much. |
Waiting for..."He's done enough."
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Speaking of horses who actually have done enough...
How about Youmzain made his 22nd straight start in a Group 1 race? I wonder what the record for consecutive starts at the Gr 1 level is? The last time he ran at a level other than Group 1 was the Gr 2 Prix Neal on September 10th 2006. In that race - he was 2nd beaten just a half length to Rail Link. Rail Link won the Arc at 23/1 odds next time out and was retired. Instead of running in the Arc, Youmzain instead went to Germany and won a Group 1 there. He finished 2nd in the Arc in 2007, 2008, and 2009 ... he probably would have been 2nd in 2006 from the looks of it had he gone there instead. Of his 22 straight Group 1 starts - they've come in the following countries - Germany, Dubai, Ireland, France, England, and Hong Kong. Before Saturday, he was only beaten by 6 lengths or more one time over that stretch .. that was when he finished 3rd by 9.5 lengths to Duke Of Marmalade despite the fact the chart says he "missed break" and "was squeezed back 1.5 furlongs out" He's carried 131lbs or more 8 times over that stretch and has made over $6 million. No world beater - but what a nice tough honest horse |
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From a betting perspective I'm more excited about Paco Boy if that one comes over for the BC, knowing Goldikova will be all the rave over here.
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Richard Hannon is staying home with all his horses, unless he changes his story. He said his horses race in Europe, nothing wrong with staying there...this was about 1.5 months ago. So don't get all excited waiting for Paco Boy, or any of his others...
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He gets a RPR of 135 for it - That sounded quite low but it sounds like theyve taken a very conservative view of it http://www.racingpost.com/horses/hom...280182452.0112 The last time I can think of a race like this was the 2003 Lockinge when Hawk Wing demolished a proper G1 field and got a ridiculously high mark which was eventually scaled down. However, on some lines of form, he could have been rated the best horse of all time, a bit like Saturday's race. |
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Great thread guys. I don't know what to add other than that's in the top 3 performances I've ever seen on turf. Stunning turn of foot in the lane. |
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I remember conversing with a knowledgable British Horseracing fan about the time when Aiden O'Brien had Rock Of Gibralter, High Chapparal, and Hawk Wing in the same stable all racing as 3 yr olds and he thought Hawk Wing was the best of the 3, as it turned out in terms of winning grade 1's he was the least accomplished but in terms of ability he was very bullish on his ability. He was out of the Windsfields farm(Northern Dancer raced for the same outfit) race mare La Lorgnette, a filly good enough to win the Queen's Plate. But that is saying quite alot considering the other 2's accomplishments on track.
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http://www.richardhannonracing.tv/news.php |
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