Look Out, Quality Road
 

Rail Trip headed east - to Dutrow:

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/ra...o-dutrow-barn/

LOL is this a joke? I always thought Rail Trip could improve on dirt, but beat the mighty Quality Road? Get the hell out of here, QR would break his heart early.

Wow.

St. Trinians will now win the Pacific Classic in an open gallop.

Gio Ponti is likely for that spot. Clement said it on CapitalOtb this past Saturday morning.

I'd take St. Trinians over Gio Ponti.

I think I agree with you, I was just letting you know. If they dont change there minds now and run Z in the Pacific Classic, I really wont care anymore, it would be totally crazy not to let her beat up on Awesome Gem and Gio Ponti.

Can't wait for those 2 to hook up going 10F.

27 minutes to post at PID. Let's get some LIVE play going.

Why? Do you actually believe Raip Trip is even competition? Quality Road is truly the highest mountain, maybe Dick can run them as an entry, Rail Trip and I Want Revenge, Rail Trip being the rabbit for the big horse.

I'm getting ready to go to the track now.

Every person I run into today .. I'm going to ask them about the Comptroller thing and find out how they feel about NY Racing politics. Should be a whole lot of peace and quiet for me tonight.

Considering St. Trinians is a desperate lunge away from being the first Zenyatta slayer, it'd be unlikely that you'd get much of a price on her anywhere in Southern California in any race.

That being said, I'm pretty sure Gio Ponti would beat her going 10 furlongs at Del Mar.

NT

I have no idea how Rail Trip will run on dirt. Nor do I really think that much of him, though I know his was poorly ridden in a few of his races. It still needs to be proven to me that QR can get 10F against a 'competitive' field. He needs to do a lot more going 10F, in terms of how he runs, then he does at a shorter distance and I think he's vulnerable to a good horse.

It's interesting that the horse once thought to be a MILER is now 'accepted' as being able to get 10F, RT, and the horse that has yet to prove it can get 10F is now 'accepted' as being able to do so.

Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.

However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.

Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.

I have said for a while now that the QR not being able to get 10f is really not an argument at all. People love to hate this horse, he was a horse for the Gulfstream course even though he had won at Aqueduct, Saratoga and ran huge at Belmont. How do you run a 110 beyer, vs the champion 3yr old going 10f if you cant get 10f?

So much for DrugS golden rail @ PID in the 1st -- the wipe-out horse blows by the rail running 2, who I bet.:rolleyes:

I'm not twisting dynamics. I'm using dynamics to make a very strong case against the horse going 10F. He has the natural speed to control a race going up to 8F or so -- 9 at GP (or other speed favoring tracks). In other words, he's fast/good enough to not only set the pace (or chase a fast one) but also to repel any bids, whether early or late -- though, most recently, these came in the form of a premature move by a sprinter and a late run by, essentially, a plug; and he didn't exactly beat anything good down at GP. But I digress. Anyway, he has yet to show this same ability going 10F. I realize that Summer Bird, highly regarded by so many here, beat him both times last year but these were both races with a minimal number of moves. Doubtful we get a similar scenario in the CLASSIC, where, hopefully, there'll be a large field and, thus, plenty of chances for plenty of IDIOT moves. And, JV is not exactly the type that will put him INSIDE and wait patiently to make a final run. Know what I mean? Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.

It's not an unfair argument, but are you saying he isn't the best horse ( even at the distance ) or his superiority isn't enough to overcome a likely difficult dynamic?

Given the likelihood now of Rail Trip running in either ( or both ) the Whitney and Woodward, and given that Dutrow also understands the value of speed, as well as his main opponent's strongsuits, shouldn't you also now consider him vulnerable at 1 1/8 as well. I'm not saying Rail Trip is as good as Quality Road, but he is of obvious quality, and he could present the obstacle that didn't exist in the races you mentioned, and soften him up for others.

I think that your main problem isn't so much the distance, though obviously his possible achilles heel could be exposed the farther they go, but that you feel he has been able to dictate races. That could change...and on a very fair racetrack.

[quote=the_fat_man;668693 Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.[/QUOTE]

how come this guy seems to make sense, alot? unlike alot of others. i bet quality road last year at 11 to 1...he scratched after throwing a fit. this year hes running shorter races. if he does not win at 10 furlongs before the cup. theres no way i'm taking some low ball price on him. seeing is believing,,,talk is for the internet. i love how people talk these horses up before the fact. yes, hes going good now but theres plenty of time and competition left. its only july and granted the tracks were wet but he could not get it done last year. this year you are looking aT 6-5 if he keeps winning.

all salient points, made before by me and others...and fell on deaf ears. but maybe you can get somewhere with it.

It's sometimes a question of whom you address.

I think you missed the point again, sure he can get 1 1/4 depending on the trip and the competition, but as I have tried to tell you last month, it probably isn't his ideal distance. With his penchant of attracting money in any race he shows up in, is he really your best bet?

he may not be the best bet-but that's the case in any race he will enter from here on out.

Who cares if its ideal? Are you kidding me, a lot of things in racing are not ideal. If he goes in the Classic he is the most likely winner, PERIOD. He is just faster then anyone else.

Do you guys think its fair to say that Rail Trip is likely to improve on dirt and with Dutrow? And if that is indeed the case, wouldn't that put him at least within sniffing distance of Quality Road?

I respect QR and he is the best horse that I have seen run this year. At the same time, he seems very beatable to me for some reason.

Agreed, that is why if one has an opinion that he has a chink in his armour, he is one you try to beat.

We don't know who will be in the field yet, but supposing the field turns up solid, I'm sure there will be better bets.

Case in point....why bother responding?

I agree with the notion that Quality Road is at his "best" going a mile. That doesn't mean that he can't get 10F, but it's probably not his optimum distance.

It's probably a bit hazardous to compare Quality Road's performances in the Travers and JCGC last year because of questions surrounding his level of fitness coming into the Travers. With that caveat stated, when QR ran in the Travers, a 10F race with a legit (23.0, 26.4, and 1:11.0) pace, he tired and was beaten by a mediocrity like Hold Me Back. Because of the relatively soft pace of the JCGC (24.4, 49.3, 1:13.0), that race is probably not the best evidence of his ability to "get" 10F.

If Dutrow does half the work with Rail Trip that he did with horses like Saint Liam and Offlee Wild, and even if he doesn't, the pace scenario is unlikely to be similar to the JCGC. For that matter, a match-up in the Whitney or Woodward would present a completely different ball set-up from what QR faced in the Donn, especially with a legitimate closer like Blame waiting to take advantage.

No way Quality Road is 6-5 if an undefeated Zenyatta shows up! The public will pound Zenyatta at this point no matter what, because she's the "undefeated" champion.

If Zenyatta doesn't show, then I'd agree probably 6-5 on QR.

Why is it about betting, I spent an hour last night discussing why I think Paddy O' Prado is a toss out this weekend, I am the first one to try to beat the chalk, but Quality Road is working on a resume this year and running speed figures that might make him go down as an all time great. I think he is that good, and I dont think Rail Trip going to Dutrow scares anyone in the Todd Barn.

Faster at a mile? Sure. But that doesn't mean he'll be "better" at 10F. In many races, the "fastest" horse doesn't win.

not sure...maybe i'm in the mood to debate?? lol

but, it's really just like any other race, with any other field. can you beat the fave? if so, try. if not, find the plays underneath, or in a sequence. if qr faces off vs a quality 10f'er, try to beat him. but, everyone really already knows that....

he doesn't run enough to be an all-time great. i don't think when people toss that phrase around that they realize exactly what category that puts a horse.

I hate to use Medaglia D'oro as an example because he was better than what Quality Road has shown thus far shown, many will agree he was better at 9 furlongs than 10 and I think the same holds true for QR. Liking a horse at 9 doesn't necessarily mean they will win the Classic at 1 1/4.

Danzig I think the correct way to put it would be he has not run enough yet. If Quality Road runs in and wins the races they are pointing him to, I dont think it will be a debate at that point. Is that fair?

no

an all time great is a horse that transcends time, generations, ages. a horse other horses get compared to. he won't be that.

man o war, yes. citation, native dancer, secretariat, dr fager, the bid, slew, affirmed. those are all time greats. hell, i wouldn't put him with a holy bull or skip away, tiznow...i'd take congaree over him at this point. if he wins the classic, i'd compare him to curlin-that doesn't make him an all time great.

Congaree ran a really good race in the Classic, he and Medaglia D'oro really set it up for Pleasantly Perfect a horse that obviously had an affinity for 1.25 M.

always liked congaree. another horse who wasn't at his best at 10f, but tried his heart out. his big cap loss to milwaukee brew was one of his best efforts.

Interesting you mention Milwaukee Brew, Frankel's other runner. I was waiting all year to put a bet on him in the Classic, unfortunately he was hurt going into the race. He really liked SA and it would have been interesting to see how he would have done given how the race came off.

TVG has Ellis booked for BC so its a logical switch. Not to mention the 6 lengths

Only 2 hours late.

I wouldn't hold the defeat to Zenyatta against St. Trinians that much.

Look, St. Trinians hadn't raced in over 3 months coming into it - and the connections say she lost a shoe on the turn... so I'm willing to forgive the performance.

And lets face it... it's not like Zenyatta is a total bum either. She's easily one of the 35 best mares to run in So. Cal over the last 10 years or so.



Maybe you're right ... but why did you feel the need to add the "at Del Mar" part at the end?

Gio Ponti is based on the other side of the country ... he's run only once at Del Mar on turf (his best surface) and he was beaten by the hapless Madeo as a 4/5 favorite.

It's not like his resume is stellar on synthetics .. off the board in a longshot everywhere Dubai World Cup. 2nd to Zenyatta in the Classic. And 5th to Cowboy Cal in the Strub ... those are his last 3 attempts on a synthetic track.

You made it sound like he has some kind of home court edge at Del Mar.