The Elusive Triple Crown
 

Let's face it, the chances for a Triple Crown in the modern era of horse racing is evolving into a bigger long shot than the Mine That Bird's D'atara's, and Giacomo's of their sport.

Even if Super Saver would have won today, do you really think he would have had a realistic chance against a well rested Ice Box among others in the Belmont? While I didn't bet Lookin AT Lucky, on paper he was the talent of the Preakness and that talent prevailed.

I know some of the older folks on here think that any comparisons of the past few years' horses don't stack up to Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed. I have tons of respect for those three and all the others that achieved the Triple Crown.

It's been 32 years since we have had a Triple Crown Winner. There is no reason to think another one will happen in the next 32 years. Maybe Smarty Jones and Big Brown really were the Superhorses of this changing era.

Maybe if Real Quiet or Silver Charm were about 10 feet better we wouldnt be talking about this. Truthfully what horse in the last 20 years deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as any triple crown winner?

And Spectacular Bid was probable better that the triple crown winners.

You're right I have not seen a race horse that comes close to these.

Respectfully, don't you think this kind of thinking might just be a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointment of another Triple Crown try-less Belmont? I mean, in the less than ten years that I've been following the sport, there have been, what, four TC chances? Three of them were competitive in the third leg (Smarty Jones was a real close call), and the fourth (Big Brown) was a mortal lock in the eyes of many people with recognized opinions. Maybe I'm too green to know any better, but I don't see how it's not going to happen eventually -- and probably sooner rather than later.

Smarty Jones and Silver Charm... maybe. None of the others.

I remember being a great doubter of Seattle Slew in 1977.

33 years ago. A fricking "one third of a century."

I attended his Preakness and his Belmont. Very happy I did.

I remember well that Secretariat's 1973 campaign was always discussed with mention of Citation.



Some nice horse will again win The Triple Crown one day.

I just hope I have the right angle wagered along the way.

The '79 Jockey Club Gold Cup and '78 Marlboro Cup suggests a very different ranking of Seattle Slew to Affirmed to Spectacular Bid.

Agreed, and for the matter couldn't you also include Smarty (since Birdstone passed him right before the wire)? And maybe I'm reaching a little bit, but Alfleet Alex had a bad trip in the KD and still almost pulled it out.

I don't know, maybe you're right. I just feel there is more of a reason as to why it won't happen as opposed to anytime it will. Here's just a few.

1. A bad post position (Lookin At Lucky @KD)
2. A horse that just isn't feeling right on race day (since horses can't talk...)
3. A quarter crack (Big Brown)
4. A horse more bred for distance like a Birdstone (Birdstone)
5. Weather conditions (Super Saver)
6. A rested and fresh horse (Rags To Riches, maybe this year Ice Box)

:tro:

Until the trainers train their horses for the TP, there will not be one. 4-6 weeks between races leading up to the TP is not going to help any Kentucky Derby winner's chances. Basically the horses have been sissified, yet we expect them to run a 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and a 1 1/2 in 5 weeks.

I can see it happening. One mediocre crop after another, it wouldn't even have to be a super horse, just one that can catch a few breaks. Then we'll be discussing how it's the worst Triple Crown winner in history.

What he said. You need a fit horse like Alex (who trained twice a day, if you recall) to run well in all three.

For my money, Afleet Alex is the closest we've had to a Triple Crown winner since 1978 - and that includes Smarty Jones.

lol.. Isn't that the truth!

Holy Bull, Candy Ride, Point Given?

In terms of talented 3 year olds. No?

hell, some of the triple crown winners don't deserve being spoken of in the same breath as other tc and non-t.c. winners.

I think if they ever limit the Derby to 14 of the top horses instead of having a herd in the gate then maybe. Point Given comes to mind when I think of this happening.

You think Monarchos wouldn't have been in the field of 14??

Or Congaree?

I don't get it.

That is ridiclous

Again did you miss the Silver Charm and Real Quiet TC trys? We almost had 2 and everyone would have been talking about it being too easy to win. There have been plenty of horses that have had legit chances that just missed.

NY's Big Apple Triple commences June 20 @ Belmont , 7F . Folowed by the The NY Derby on July 17 @ FL, 1 1/16 mi. Concluded by the Albany Stakes @ Saratoga on Aug, 25 , 9F . A $100,000 bonus to the winner of all 3 .

Run since 1978 there has only been one winner of NY breds Triple Crown . Tin Cup Chalice by Crusader Sword, trained by Mike Lecesse, in 2008 .
http://www.nybreds.com/racing/big-apple-triple.cfm

I laughed

we'll never know because there was 20 something horse's in it. It would've changed the whole race. Just like adding or subtracting a few horses in any race would change the outcome.

What was needed was 20 horses but only 19 jockeys.

I like it...especially if Eightyfiveinafifty would have got in and been the horse without a jock.

If Esky had stayed healthy we would all likely be dicussing today whether or not he was going to win the triple crown as he had two races this year that would have wiped out anything in the Derby or Preakness. A horse will come along that will be superior to the crop and get the job done. I can only imagine the things people were saying between 1948 and 1973.

Spectacular Bid definitely would have been a deserving triple crown winner if he didn't step on a pin. I personally think Smarty Jones would would have been as well if not for a boneheaded ride and several jocks who were not riding to win the Belmont, but just to beat Smarty. Afleet Alex may have been a deserving candidate as well with a better trip in the Derby.

Let's face it, Real Quiet and Silver Charm both came very close and who knows whether Charismatic would have won it if he didn't suffer the injury in the stretch. The simple fact is that Super Saver is really just not that great and certainly does not stand out amongst this weak crop.

uhh guys?
 

HELLOOOO!!! Is everybody forgetting two major things??? It is supposed to be this difficult to win thats why it is the most prestigious and sought after achievement in our sport. This period of time will only make when it actually happens all the more special and good for the sport.

The second point is a little bit more trivial however nothing but the truth. IF yeah I know but IF Kent Desormeaux hadnt moved at the 5/8THS POLE!!! Let me say it again 5/8THS POLE. We wouldnt even be having this conversation. His decision to chase after Grand Slam and Chelito two horses who had no chance at making the distance is beyond me. Clearly the modern horse is capable, we were a head bob and a major human error away. Classic Tom Durkin, "Kent D has guided the derby winner and the Preakness winner to the outside for a clear shot at the lead and he's moving early with 6 furlongs to go!" "Real Quiet now makes a powerful run for the lead with 5 furlongs to go!" and lastly, "a picture is worth a thousand words this photo is worth 5 million dollars! OH NO! " One of Tom's best calls and he couldn't be more dead on, the oh no is hilarious, he knew Kent screwed it up terribly and he showed it through his call. I don't think the Triple Crown is impossible and I don't think we will have to wait too long for another one.

Just in case anyone forgot.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIRP4UbrCg8

Hey RollerDoc, Great post.
Point Given is living proof that horses still exist who could win the triple crown.

In 2001 Point Given lost the kentucky derby (perhaps to foot issues or a bad ride) but in my eyes Point Given had to goods to have won the triple crown.
There will 1000% be another triple crown winner.

And Spectacular Bid was probable better that the triple crown winners.

110% CORRECT

Smarty Jones should have won it. Jockey error cost him

Point Given, Afleet Alex and Smarty all were worthy of being a triple Crown winner, We will see one soon, and he probably will be an undefeated TC winner