Super Savings Indeed
 

Looking over this race it is evident to me you won't get rich but the excitement of a Belmont with a Triple chance seems better than 75% to me. With the defection of HI, and the style of SS, his chances of winning are higher than a 5/2 ML would indicate. He isn't Big Brown or Smarty Jones, but guess what, he doesn't have to be in here. As Davidowitz said yesterday, of the 3 jewels this is easily the most formful and has been of late as well. Don't try and be a hero.

1. Aikenite- Went to a new top in the Trial but he strikes me as a 1 turn horse so that's not surprising. Some would say that means he could pair that effort and he will get a ground saving trip. Looking at his routes though don't give me much hope that this Yes It's True wants to go this far at all. If you think this horse can clunk up for 3rd I wouldn't say no, but he is not a win candidate.

2. Schoolyard Dreams- Ryan is a clever guy and somebody who hits the board 71% with Coa up. That's a 28 horse sample as well. Horse has done nothing but route in his career. Rushed a bit into the Wood facing the best 3 yr old of the year. No shame in his performance. Gets six weeks, draws well. The most likely 2nd place horse in the field.

3. Pleasant Prince- Expecting an even effort after 2 off performances following his biggie in FL. Cooked him, and the rush job by Ramsey was gross. If he was thought of as much he wouldn't have debuted for a tag. If you want a horse who will finish 6th, this is him. Not a win candidate in here.

4. Northern Giant- Feeling here is he is sent along with JB and his last effort was awful. His best efforts aren't fast enough to compete with the top horses in here. Can see him getting run off his feet on the front end and packing it in at the turn. Eased candidate.

5. Yawanna Twist- Numbers say he can figure in here actually but I'm going to play against him. Yonaguska's going routes are not my cup of tea. His effort in IL was better than it looked but American Lion hardly flattered it with his nothing effort in KY. Boring out at the end not a plus either. He shouldn't be 30-1 based on his figs but I don't like him at any price.

6. Jackson Bend- How about a rest? This guy is getting run into the ground and he through in the towel hard core in KY. Yes he tries but what makes you think he can wire this bunch? I don't and I think NG will be sent as well so he has a potential ground loss trip as the speed. No thanks.

7. Lookin At Lucky- He finds trouble. I'm tired of hearing trouble finds him. Maybe he's just not that good. Its not like his 2 yr old races were that fast. And as distance has increased he seems to have stagnated. 3-1 is no bargain on this horse and I think you have to pass on him anywhere above 3rd in here on your tickets. And karma wise, moves like Baffert made upset the Preak On Gods. Garcia is a huge step down. You can have him.

8. Super Saver- The most likely winner at a fair 5/2 if you ask me. Has tactical speed and was actually able to win the Derby without moving up that much, i.e. I don't think he's spent. Remember his first work this year was Jan. 24th and Pletch has said in some ways he has been playing catchup with him the whole time. I am more excited for this race than the Derby. Why? B/c I think he is going to win and win convincingly which helps one of the best days in horse racing at Belmont when a Triple is on the line. I want him to roll. And he should.

9.Caracortado- Hammerin Hank aside, when's the last time that a horse who debuted for a tag at Fairplex won a Crown race. Not happening and he's slow too. Why is he going to move up on the dirt? There is nothing about him that appeals to me and he is an underlay under 20-1. Happy for Paul getting a big mount but he won't get a check.

10. Paddy O'Prado- He ran to his works and training in the slop at CD. Kent did a great job regardless of what people said, he got a 1W 2W trip in a 20 horse field and encountered not a peep of trouble. Guess what, with all that he could muster only 3rd. On a fast track he is a play against in here. I hate his chances to hit the board in here. Back to the turf after this one.

11. First Dude- Has a nice pattern but what scares me is the trip he will get from this spot. His dirt races show a lot of pressing type races and if that's the case he could be 4 or 5 wide around the turn and that isn't going to help since he's not that fast to begin with. Price is right to play in the exotics with him a bit underneath but I'm going to take a stand against him. Value for sure with his line and he is much preferred to Paddy O.

12. Dublin- Ran better than I would've thought in the Derby. 12 spot no help. Gomez helps but this guy just isn't making up ground at the end of routes. I think he needs a rest and a look at the Kings Bishop. That is if Lukas doesn't run him into the ground before then.

1. Super Saver- by daylight
2. Schoolyard Dreams
3. I don't know or care

I think part of the move to Garcia was to get the horse closer to the pace, which will help the horse in this race. I like LAL over SS in a chalky exacta.

No value whatsoever in LAL. He opened up offshore last night as a favorite over SS. That makes no sense to me.

Didn't say I was betting it.

AAI agree 110%, looks like a cold exacta

I wasn't saying that LAL made no sense, just that him being favored over SS made no sense. Just to clarify my cake friend.

That's how I'm playing it, with a small saver on Schoolyard.

who is HI

i'm drawing a blank

Ike

Im having a hard time figuring out the love affair and the world beater status thrust upon Super Saver here. Granted he won the derby, but he also got beat in the Tampa Bay Derby(outgutted), the Arkansas Derby and his first win of the year came on a sloppy nasty track in which I think he took a liking to and it wasn't like he set the track record, they walked in 205. Seems like every other horse was just spinning their wheels, except Ice Box who in my opinion should of won the race. He also won his only stakes victory over the same surface months back(horse for the course). Now we have a track where the surface will be a 180 from what he just ran on and a fast track that he has yet to win on this year. The horse is a gamer and has only been out of the money once in seven starts but the talk of him winning "by daylight" and in a "walkover" like most people on here are saying is nonsense. Nice horse but not a world beater by far and will be exposed in this race.

Randall, you don't really mean 75%, do you? Fair odds of 1 to 3? You can get 3-1 on Super Saver at TheGreek, as you probably know. That would represent an edge of +900% on fair odds of 1 to 3. (You can also get Super Saver at -115 vs LAL, btw).

Well said, thought I would hardly guarantee that he'll "be exposed". I think Super Saver has maybe a 30% chance to win the race. Fair odds are around 5-2, IMO. He deserves to be the favorite, just not an overwhelming fav.

--Dunbar

Yes I do, a slight move forward, came out of the race great and facing tin cans. FYI I bet SS at 3.45-1 when that opened as well as SS against LAL at even money last night....Money is where mouth is.

I have no interest in Schoolyard Dreams. Until he proves he can run a big race on a track other than Tampa, I'll be betting against him. What exactly was his excuse in the Wood? That he isn't fast?

Jackson Bend, I'm leaning towards using. His Derby, like so many others, is a throwout. His workout on Monday indicated that race didn't phase him.
He'll clearly be forwardly placed, and perhaps not a likely win candidate,
fit enough to hit the board for sure.

Jesus.




SportyFans....was it really that hard??

I :{>: Clyde

I like the matchup bet, but still...

I think we can agree that LAL had significant trouble in the first 1/4 mile. After 1/2 mile he was 13.5 lengths behind Super Saver. At the wire he was 7.5 lengths behind Super Saver. It gives me some pause.

btw, Schoolyard Dreams will be racing against more than 6 other horses for the first time in his short career. Never had to deal with a bumping steadying bunch like this. It might not matter, but I give some weight to horses that have had that kind of experience.

--Dunbar

Dun, SD is going to take back though so I don't see where he'll have the same kind of chance for trouble.

DumbBar loves me ,too.

hope you are right but I probably will be cursing BO-REL after the race and tossing my tickets and my lunch

I hear where you are coming from, but his pattern says otherwise and in fact is explosive when it comes to big race performances...That being said, he is not Smarty Jones, but guess what, look at this field and the crop of 3 yr olds at this point. There is very little standing in his way here at all.

Most likely? I don't see that at all. Lookin At Lucky's lone start on a fast dirt surface appears much better to me than anything Schoolyard Dreams has ever done.
I agree with Lemoncrush that SD's Wood was a poor effort all the way around, and he got beat that day by two horses that ran like garbage in Louisville. You point to his layoff after the Wood as a good thing, but given his thoroughly unimpressive effort off a layoff in January I'm not at all convinced that's the case. You also suggest that they will take back with the horse, but given that the race appears paceless, I'm not convinced that is a good thing either. Toss in what I see as a negative jock-switch from the Wood and the fact that he looks an awful lot like your basic Tampa-lover to me, and I'll pass.

I think a chalky exacta is the :most likely" here: either 7,8 or 8,7.

A fair argument with regards to Lucky. I would say only that I think SD is better than you think and if you looked at his numbers his best race is not as far off of Lucky as you think and Lucky was on the fence for this race which to me is a negative.

I think the Super Savings would be to pass this race.. hope Super Saver wins.. and then bet against him in the Belmont.

That said, I'm sure I'll be taking a stab at tri/super on Saturday. :)

Schoolyard Dreams is more likely to be last than 1st or 2nd...horse is just plain slow...the new shooters are a very, very weak group. In fact I wouldn't be shocked if the super ends up involving the 4 horses who come out of the Derby in some order, although Paddy O'Prado I expect to not be anywhere near as good on fast dirt as he is on turf/synthetics/wet tracks.

Sorry, I agree with you. None of my bets of any kind will leave either SS or SD out of the top spot. I am betting with my head so L@L I can only wish the best to, just like last out.

LAL/SS/all

LAL/all/SS

simple ticket and you wont get rich.

Why try to make it more than what it is' Super Saver is fit and just beat this group so he will get brave again.

He's not going to beat LAL which has shown in all his races that he is willing and trys to finish and win in every race. It has been a case of being in the wrong place and try to get too cute with his trip in some races and thats why he belongs on top.

Who looks to improve in 2 weeks Nobody. Thats why the all

Sooner or later, LAL is going to have to stop living off his 2-year old reputation and run a "big" race as a 3-year old. So far, he hasn't.

There's no guarantee LAL gets a perfect trip this week either, despite the talents of big race rider Martin Garcia aboard (sarcasm mode turned off). Then I assume we'll have more excuses for this horse.
If he's as good as so many claim he is, then he should win comfortably on Saturday. I don't buy it, and will not being using him on top on any of my tickets.

LAL wins by daylight!!!

Why you would take a daylight comment as an affront to any other picks is silly. Everyone has an opinion. :zz:

lol you caught that, I was being facetious chillax :p, seriously though LAL is by far the most talented horse in the race and it finally comes together for him.

He needs to show it. This is his chance.

Super Saver is 1 for 5 away from Churchill Downs, does this scare anyone?

put it this way . if looking at lucky loses again, hes this years pyro. who in their right mind would play chalk on that....i don't care if he wins and beats me. i'll use him in exactas(back up) but if super saver is anywhere near 5-2 or 3-1 even its a ...go to the window. the horse won for fun wet , dry i could give a crap that derby was not even close. the new horses look like junk......super saver with LAL, dublin, paddy o prado.

Small sample, not as if he's been awful is his other performances.

I'm not saying he is not possible, he is the safest bet in the race; however both of his wins came at CD where he rode the rail with Borel aboard that it atleast makes me think it may be worth taking a shot at him considering he will be the favorite.

Now if LAL wins by daylite, does this put a kink in GoGo's armor as a Triple Crown big race rider?Do we see a pattern or has he just been finding the wrong horses?

pyro won too many races in the spring for looking at lucky to be him. looking at lucky is more like this years dollar bill-one hard luck story after another.

the more i think about it, the more i think super saver will win. playing him with the dutrow horse.

Doesn't scare me... I'm not using him in the top spot.

If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it but no,I don't see him winning tomorrow.

That said, I know it's a lot easier to predict who will lose than who will win.

I'm using Caracortado on top and Paddy, Aikenite and Jackson Bend in some order underneath.

Maybe I'll use SS in a super.

Good luck to all his fans and I wish him well of course, a safe trip home. I don't think he's the Triple Crown winner we'd all love to see...

Maybe next year.

you might be right. i can not bet this horse as the favorite. i'm tired of the excuses. thats how the derby and many of these big races go. plus, people have to realize that horses that get perfect trips often have tactical speed like super saver. horses like ice box and looking at lucky have problems in half their starts. not that they can't win, its just harder. i don't know what race people saw in the derby, super saver won by almost three lengths and the second horse is not running today. post position...exucse after excuse, this horse (LAL) still has to make up about 8 lenghts as the favorite.....good luck on that happening.

hard to tell what will happen, the derby was on a sloppy track after all. no doubt that had an affect. question is, how much of an affect? super saver seems to have gotten good at the right time, and seems to be thriving. no other horse in the field seems to be in that same boat as him, which is why i think he's the most likely winner. looking at lucky imo hasn't shown the huge ability many think he has this year. i think he's on par with several other horses. his race in arkansas showed that. he evidently was a precocious two year old, who hasn't improved as they've matured.

now, watch him win...:D but i just think, based on what he's done this year, he's not the big horse.