No love for the Preakness?
 

I realize that the Derby is our most "famous" horse race on an annual basis, and Derby fever can be contagious. However, is it me, or does it seem odd that so many stables are running all of their horses in the Derby and not saving any "bullets" for the second American Classic? For example, WinStar looks poised to run Rule, Super Saver, American Lion (all with similar running styles) and Endorsement in the Derby, and you get the sense that if they could have gotten Drosselmeyer into the starting gate, they would have run him as well. Despite already having a Derby starter, Ramsey is going to run Pleasant Prince for the third time in five weeks to get that horse "qualified" for the Derby. And Zito/Lapenta are looking to run Jackson Bend in the Derby even though they already have Ice Box in the race, and the Preakness would seem to be a better fit for their hard-trying Wood runner-up.

I'm not saying that some of the horses noted above would be more likely to win the Preakness, but you'd think these owners with expensive, far-flung operations would want to have chances in both races instead of going all out to win only one of them. Is this simply a reflection of the reality that few people remember who won the Preakness (as opposed to the Derby), or the true impact of the Giacomo/Mine That Bird effect - that there are only so many "tickets" to the Derby and you have to go it if you get one? And with trainers wanting more time between starts, the days of Derby rematches in the Preakness seem to be a thing of the past.

D'Funnybone.

Not anymore. They are staying 1 turn the rest of the year

This is a good point and I think some of it has to do with last year's result and an "anything goes" type attitude about the Derby. The fact that the graded stakes earnings bar has been set so high this year as well leaves many out of the mix. Should more connections be concentrating on the Preakness? Sure, however the memories of a 50-1 outsider winning the Derby from a race at Sunland that no one cared about from a trainer who hadn't won a thoroughbred race all year are still fresh.

NT

miner's reserve may go in the preakness. typically the top horses point to the top race, the preakness generally gets the top from the derby, and then a few that get hot but not soon enough to make churchill-horses from the withers, the federico tesio, derby trial, etc. maybe the lexington winner?

One Kentucky Derby would mean more to me than 10 Preaknesses if I were an owner.

How many people get to say "I won the Kentucky Derby."

How many people know what you are talking about outside of horse racing when you say "I won the Preakness."

Eightyfiveinafifty might try to join the infield crowd at Pimlico. Does that count?

Seriously though the biggest case of a stable ditching the Derby and aiming to kick things off with the Preakness (as far as I know) was Man o' War. The Derby was a big race but not quite the phenomenon it is today, and Riddle wasn't about to go to Kentucky of all ungodly places to run 1 1/4 in early May. He thought that was for the birds. Sufficed to say, today I'm sure he'd be more easily persuaded. Didn't he get grumpy about sending War Admiral to begin with? It's such a shame since MOW probably would've been the easiest TC winner in history. It's not like there was a Sham in that Derby.

It's not like the Preakness is a nothing race or something. There seem to have been at least a few years in recent years where the Preakness winner was considered a stronger stallion prospect than the Derby victory. 2001 and 2005 come immediately to mind.

:tro::D

actually, maryland horsemen say that very thing-maybe not so much buy, but breed. but yeah, everyone wants the derby.

In a lot of instances, the Preakness tends to be the more "honest" or "formful" race in the long run. The road to the Derby is such a clusterfucl< that its almost as if the race itself is an anti-climax and tends to be run in a haphazard fashion (breakneck pace, auxiliary post positions, all sorts of traffic woes going on, etc.). The Belmont, at 12f, is an anomaly that also really has no bearing on the rest of the year in most cases.

For these reasons it's also a race to catch a good horse at an overlaid price. How many beaten Derby favorites have bounced back at Pimlico in recent times? Snow Chief, Prairie Bayou, Point Given, Afleet Alex, Timber Country, Hansel. Well-meant Derby horses like Louis Quatorze, Pine Bluff, Tabasco Cat. Certainly, despite the trouble trips from each, the '89 Easy Goer-Sunday Silence Preakness was the more accurate result of that Triple Crown series.

This year, and I realize its much too early to make any substantial predictions, I'm already on the lookout for expected Derby dud Sidney's Candy to be more of a threat at Pimlico than at Churchill.

I imagine after seeing his sheet numbers they decided to get a little more realistic.

True. Lemon Drop Kid, Commendable, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Summer Bird, Jazil. But I'm willing to bet a couple of those would have done fine at Pimlico, too.

Beyond the TC, do you see anything that can sprint or mile with D'Funnybone down the road? Perhaps A Little Warm, Awesome Act, Mission Impazable, Conveyance?

I think his run is over. He's OK but I honestly am far from convinced as others possibly improve he will be a major factor.

west ocean.:rolleyes:

85/50? Or are you assuming Contessa ruins him?

Is that because of the quality of the winners, or the quantity of your alcohol consumption?

No, I forgot about him. However, I was thinking more of the extended sprints and flat miles like the Woody Stephens, King's Bishop, and Jerome.

Even though he won the sparse Bay Shore at 7f, I suspect he'll be at his best at 6f ultimately if he survives the route experiment.

Don't know much about that filly beyond her FG race. Does she run on dirt at all?

I was thinking about the 3yo races this summer anyways, so we won't have to worry about her until the BC if they choose to take on males.

West Ocean got a 98 and was tremendously impressive. I don't know where Pletcher's going to run her but she's very good right now.

NT

Jerry Brown intimated she earned a negative 2, which is absolutely unheard of for both a 3 year old filly, and a turf sprint.

She was a 3YO filly last year.

RHT math makes her 5

There have been several recent Derby winners who have not been particularly attractive stallion candidates. In recent history, more Belmont winners have emerged as significant sires than Derby winners. Also, a win in one of the other Classics can help enhance the reputation of a stallion they already own. As crazy as this sounds today, two years ago, Da' Tara's victory in the Belmont did a lot to enhance the reputation of Tiznow, a WinStar stallion.

Doing my best Don Adams imitation:

"Would you believe lightly raced 4 year old filly?":o

What's the longest priced Preakness Winner in recent history? Louis Quatorze is the only one that comes to mind.


Sarava is the best Belmont long shot I can remember
followed by Birdstone
then D Tara

Bernardini.

Exactly. Charismatic was actually the same price as Louis Quatorze.

NT