Derby futures
 

TheGreek has odds for all the top 20, and them some. But they also have this interesting abbreviated list:

1251 Lookin at Lucky +425
1252 Eskendereya +215
1253 Sidneys Candy +825
1254 American Lion +2050
1255 Dublin +2250
1256 Any Other Runner +145

That line has a 10% takeout. Neither Bookmaker nor 5Dimes has Derby futures up. (5Dimes DOES have snooker futures for the "World Championship", though. Thank heaven for that.)

Eskendereya was +285 at TheGreek before the weekend's races. (Actually +325 was available in a separate 'Eskendereya vs Field' bet.)

--Dunbar

You really don't have a clue what you are watching if you even consider a bet on that horse.

In a race that's going to be loaded with horses who have little chance of winning, I think Dublin at > 20-1 is far from a bad bet.

NT

Then maybe you don't know what you are looking at either. I do not mean that to be nasty but he has zero shot to factor or hit the board. Absolutely none

Oh no...

Duly noted. I'll be eagerly awaiting your selections soon, I have no idea what I'm talking about nor what I'm looking at.

NT

Bashing a G1 winner who cant run past a mile, whos never won past 7/8ths of a mile. Who has absolutely no punch in the stretch against mules. Save your money, see if you can find an English bookmaker that will let you bet him as last 4 to finish. That is where he will finish.

If you bet that horse you do not have any idea at all what you are watching. Not that I ever thought you had any idea, but that will pretty much seal the deal. The eternal moosh, betting a hopeless plug, going a mile and a quarter when he cant even run a mile against mediocre horses.

You and Rich Perloff on TVG maybe the two sharpest MF to ever breath.

I could careless what you think. You don't know what you are talking about, nor what you are looking at.

hes really bad

Worst I have ever seen but always has something to say

Joe, you could learn a lot from the Bid. I'd recommend you rethink putting him on ignore and maybe listening a little more to why he's right.

And again... making selections 3 weeks before the race is run is probably a bad idea. I thought you were over that??

Phil I appreciate that

Hes the guy that boxes 5 in an exacta and still misses. 7 horse field.

Not to mention with Dublin hes been ran in all the preps, hasn't won any. In fact, hasn't won since he was a juvy! Makes perfect sense to bet him in Derby. 20-1 IMO is a short price on him. He should be 60-1 at post and I still wouldnt use him in anything because hes a hopeless puke

You cash more mythical wagers than anybody I have ever seen.

You have more money on horses you hate than any MF I have watched in here. You bashed VJ balls about Stately Victor, yet he wins and pays 80 and you have 10 accross on him. Then you hafta back peddle like Kenny Lofton because you look like a moron of epic proportions

Its too bad you don't bet exactas. I would follow you from track to track. Im sure your money shakes the board

Seriously though, why Dublin? D. Wayne hasn't won a stakes race with a 3YO in like 8 years. Why not, say, Super Saver- who will be the same price, and has a win over the track, beat Dublin on the square, and a better chance to move up on Derby Day?

And again, while discussing contenders early especially in the Derby is important, don't lock yourself in 3 weeks out. Go back and watch every race. Digest the results and think about what really should happen. Formulate a way how each horse could potentially win. Step back and evaluate the prices at which these horses will be versus the way you decide each could potentially win. Remember the other day when you were supremely confident in Warrior's Reward? You gave a situation how and why he was going to win, at a bonus mutuel. Just because you bet Dublin in the Ark Derby doesn't mean you need to bet him again in the Ky Derby.

I am pretty shocked that Dublin is still even running, let alone make the Derby.

That horse isn't even on a ****** like yours radar without Vol Jack. Thats the point. You put yourself in a position that if the horse loses you jump jack and bash him,if it wins you loved him.

Hush on Super Saver, although he should have cruised past that horse on Saturday, and he didn't gallop out that strong.

I am not sure what to think about the race.

Scav he wont win a race of merit as an older horse. I doubt he ever wins another graded stake, and he will never win a graded stake 1000000 percent past 7/8ths. That includes G3

Dublin or Super Saver?

Dublin

SS would at least get a look

It was a strong performance from the winner, but a huge jump up. He'll go backwards in the Derby. I haven't watched the gallop out yet although that doesn't mean a whole lot to me usually (unless they look like they're going to fall apart.)

I don't think Super Saver is even good by any means. All I'm offering is a viable alternative to Dublin at roughly the same price to make PG think about his selections more.

I don't disagree with you on Dublin, I am shocked that he has held up this long after getting grinded on.

From a TG perspective, SS has a really really good pattern, this last race worries me though, he shoud have rolled Line of David and galloped out fairly strong with that type of trip but looked unfit. I guess the plus side is that he isn't gutted and Derby is third race off the layoff. I am wondering if he has distance limitations, he shouldn't, but who knows.

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

See, I can't stand Noble's Promise....Not a fan at all with him, if he runs in the top two I am in alot of trouble on Derby Day.

Im not a fan,but if you made me take one out of that race hes the only logical horse you can take. He had a ton of trouble in there and still really didn't get licked to bad on a surface that was pretty front end. I think hes the only one worth a look moving forward.

Thats if he even runs on to the Derby. Mcpeek sounded like he was gonna skip

I would hate that if he did. Alot is gonna happen in the next 20 days...

Not a chance I bet a Cuvee-Clever Trick going 10F. I'm not a big pedigree guy- but eventually breeding like that catches up to him. Noble's Promise is his only stakes winner going 2 turns. He's a nice horse, but the Derby isn't the right spot for him, especially with McPeek saying he's banged up.

I can't find a race in this prep season I actually liked, PERIOD. Obviously Esken's Wood ranks high- but I have a very strong feeling they are holding this one together with string and tape, Pletcher putting wraps on is a HUGE negative. And besides him... they all pretty much suck.

While I like Wayne and I don't think Dublin can win I'll back up the point that he can easily be used underneath...what's likely to happen is he's going to have to revert to his Southwest run where he's going to be 10+ lengths off what is going to be a torrid pace as before I even pick any horses, although I am leaning towards Awesome Act right now, is that he can absolutely hit the board because right away any horse who wants the lead is an automatic toss, and a reason I favor a horse like Dublin over Super Saver is that Super Saver is going to be totally out of his element because he's going to be 5-10+ lengths off the early lead whereas a horse like Dublin has shown he can settle way back and make one late run if the scenario would set it up...while horses like Eskendereya, Awesome Act, et al are higher on my list, I will use Dublin a bit underneath as he's one of about 6 or 7 horses that have a shot to get into the number whereas the other 13 are hopeless.

Im not sure that horse is real banged up. I think Mcpeek probably agrees with you and would rather try the preakness after the others are softened up a little. I would have the same reservations about him carrying that run on 1 1/4, hes already well beyond his scope. That being said the really good ones do things they aren't supposed to do. Unfortunately Dublin isn't a really good one.

His 2 turn win was on Poly also, if it was on dirt it would be a different story.

I agree about Esky, I can care less what they are saying about another horse run down earlier in the day. What is he gonna say, "He's a race away from being dead lame but we can get one more out of him"

I mean the way it looks the following are auto tosses due to running style:

Rule
Line of David
Conveyance
American Lion
Super Saver

The following are tosses because they are just really bad horses or haven't proven they can run on dirt any good:

Mission Impazible
Stately Victor
Discreetly Mine
Dean's Kitten
Interactif
Paddy O'Prady
Homeboykris (mainly because Dutrow is making a moronic decision here him being off 8 weeks).

That's 12 easy tosses right there leaving me with 8 contenders for the number.

I haven't decided to auto toss American Lion yet. I want to decide to,but I havent. The others you have listed I agree with.

I think Impaz and Victor you cannot toss. Impaz had a bad trip at Oaklawn was his first run against those kind. Came back and ran well enough to win,but not well enough to dazzle. He has had pleanty of time between and I think he will at the very least be around till the last bit of the Derby. Victor I know will handle the surface. Kitten cannot stand up on the dirt, and I doubt very seriously Prado is even a good horse. Homeboy and Interactif are auto outs for me.

I'm not so sure Rule is an instant throwout. He's one of the few horses in the field who's never been out of the money and his speed figures are every bit as good as anyone except Esky,Sydney or Endorsement.
As for his running style he appears headstrong but I can't help thinking that if given an opportunity to rate behind horses he could. In a Derby field that certainly looks laced with front end speed types there will be a few of them who will have no alternative but to make an attempt from off the pace. At that point it comes down to talent and ability to get the distance.
He's had a good foundation and although he failed in his most recent test if he build on that by working up to the race he could be one to sneak in to the super.

:)

Phil, the Bid may sometimes have something to say, but he didn't say it well in this thread.

IMO saying "zero shot" is being clueless. I know The Bid is not clueless, but that post is.

I'm sure The Bid would not want to give me 50-1 on Dublin hitting the board. If he does, we can work something out so that he can make his no-risk 2% profit.

--Dunbar

Not to be nasty, but am I the only person who thought The Bid was a chick? I always get that poster and Linny confused for some reason.

Anywho, all of the nonsense from this weekend and last, and I keep coming back to Endorsement as a live horse on May 1.

Dunbar

give me even money he hits the board. I'll give you top 4 slots. You pay double if he runs last 4 slots.

Theoretically they all have a shot it's a horserace. That said he'll be a total non factor when they turn for home. Be moonwalking like Michael Jackson (god rest his soul)

Endorsement, live

Im more confident he is burning in hell...than u r of Dublin stinking up the track in the Derby.

Lawd ha mercy

He stinks up every joint! You think he's gonna show up under those twinspires and run out of his mind. Mack will just be happy to show up there all the money he's blown.

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT