Eskendereya: 109 BSF for Wood
 

109 Beyer

he's done enough

LOL

Your on a roll tonight, most productive posts.....

Good to see Stevie Wonder making figs over in Queens.

What are you talking about?

NT

??
Feels like a good number to me. Should be 14 points faster than the Excelsior which would give that a 95. Also gives Jackson Bend and Awesome Act low 90's which fits well.

That being said, the question remains whether Esk runs back to or close to that number in the Derby.

I did not think that track was slow today, 1:50 is avg for the Wood. Both 8550 and WR broke 1:22 at 7 panels...I'm not buying 109. Sorry

Your in really good form right now.

How do you explain the 1:51.43 in the Excelsior?

Very slow horses. More than a reason, are you serious?

He doesn't understand how speed figures are made....isn't that obvious?

You have given him the derby already. Please stick with it.

Well, that's a relevent response. I see you passed dopey internet posting 101.

Am I serious? Eskendereya ran almost 1.5 seconds faster than them. How low do you want to make the Excelsior figure? As bad as the field was, the top three finishers were still running 95-100s coming into the race.

Beyers are for clowns. 88

Who are those numbers (the ones you totally pull out of your ass) for?

Excell

I would think that performance was just what the doctor ordered 4 weeks out from the Derby. What will he run when asked? Looked like a Sunday morning work out.

More Than A Reason ran a negative 1.5 last out on your numbers, TG .. and he had run a 1.50 or better in 4 of his last 5 races.

Esk will get a pretty huge sheet number because it's baked in that he carried 123lbs and was 3 wide on the turns.

durkin bless his hart made the call sound exciting though it was a bernardini eske hand ride..

Like in Mary Hart. :)

Isn't the explanation here the slow paces in both the Excelsior and the Wood? The final time of both races seemed a little slow for how the track was overall playing yesterday.

Eskendereya was very impressive, especially in comparison to the slow come home time for the Excelsior, but both of these races were contested in the manner that we often see in turf/synthetic races and result in final figures slower than the actual performance may warrant.

It seems like there was a number of slow paced prep races. Horses like Sidneys Candy, American Lion, Discreetly Mine and others who were aided by slow paces are going to find the going much more difficult at Churchill. Not to take anything away from Eskendereya but in that GP stake, he clearly was aided by a slow pace, and he was close to another slow pace again yesterday. He might win at CD but will probably be overbet.

Two things against him already. He's ridden by Johnny V and trained by Pletcher. Two big derby curse's right out of the box.:rolleyes:

Don't get too hung-up on this number. Regardless of whether or not it's 101, 109 or 119, Eskendereya posted an effort out there that no one in this crop has come close to.

see post #25

People said the same thing about Frankel in the BC, about geldings winning the Derby and about NY breds winning the Derby. The history is damning but I've always thought it's only a matter of time for Pletcher.

NT

Pletcher was 1-for-41 ... in fact, 41-1-6-4 at last years CD Spring meet.

The 0-for-24 Derby record means absolutely nothing ... however, the fact that he's normally red hot in the winter and cools off in spring is a concern for me.

Gulfstream has always been his best meet and CD has always been a place where his barn signficantly underperforms against their odds.

i agree. Eskendereya loped around three wide behind a pace where no pressure was felt what so ever. the rider could of had the lead at any time. only one horse made a move (awesome act) and he came up with absolutely nothing at the end. they can give him a 109 , a 115 or a 120 for that matter. the horse might as well of been working out. this horse has not had to run hard yet this year. put him in there with 19 other horses with a couple that have nothing to lose when they go 46 to the half and it could be a whole new ball game. break out the bandwagon because i smell 8 to 5 coming....lol. i wish they gave him a 120 as if these numbers ever prove a thing. 24, 49, 1:13.5 and 1:37.7...oh yeah, he was flying...give me a break.

Is it fair to say that so far, Eskendereya is the only 3 year old horse that has displayed a Derby worthy performance? And now, he has done it twice.

What's going to beat him besides luck or injury? He doesnt even need all of what he had yesterday to win this year's derby.

....it was

yup, he can't lose. wait a minute doesn't the favorite lose almost every year? oh , that must be a different race....lol

Everyone also loves to dangle Pletcher's record but how many of those horses were hopeless? Keyed Entry, Join In the Dance (who ran okay considering), Wild Horses etc. And he's outperformed with a lot of them as well based on odds (Limehouse, Bluegrass Cat)... it just takes the right horse at the right time, and is not a reflection of his abilities as a trainer.

Are you suffering from Dale Earnhart Jr. withdrawal on this NASCAR-less Sunday? Hence, the "88"...

Haha. I don't understand the Nascar appeal. Unless you are actually in the race, I can't see being a spectator.

The favorite in the derby has won 50 times. In the last ten years- Big Brown, Fusaichi Pegasus, Street Sense, Barbaro and Smarty Jones were either favored or amongst the top three betting choices.

Indeed, you must be watching a different race.

While Esky was visually very very impressive last night, at his current odds of 2-1 for the Derby, Id be very much playing against him..

There were also a lot that weren't considered "hopeless" going in to the Derby and underperformed expectations. When you have a stable the size of Pletcher's, during most of the year, you have the luxury of picking your spots with your horses. For the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, you don't get that luxury. Given that fact, I think it's hard to say that his rather dismal record on the big days does not reflect on his operation's performance, especially when he seems to have almost all of the well-heeled owners who are specifically looking for success on those days.

No doubt about it. Anything can happen and you can find a good price on a horse with a shot. At the same time, is there any single horse out there that you have seen so far with a reasonable shot to beat him? If so, Please name him.