![]() |
3/36-28 (CD): Derby Future Pool 3
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 3
No. Horse Pool 1 odds Pool 2 odds Pool 3 M/L 1 Aikenite 54-1 57-1 50-1 2 Alphie's Bet 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 15-1 3 Awesome Act 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 15-1 4 Caracortado 3-2(f) 19-1 20-1 5 Connemara 3-2(f) 46-1 20-1 6 Conveyance 33-1 28-1 20-1 7 Discreetly Mine 3-2(f) 37-1 20-1 8 Dublin 20-1 10-1 15-1 9 Eskendereya 22-1 5-1 5-1 10 Homeboykris 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 50-1 11 Ice Box 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 12-1 12 Interactif 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 20-1 13 Jackson Bend 27-1 47-1 30-1 14 Lookin At Lucky 8-1 9-1 6-1 15 Make Music for Me 105-1 3-1(f) 30-1 16 Noble's Promise 36-1 26-1 12-1 17 Odysseus 3-2(f) 25-1 20-1 18 Pleasant Prince 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 20-1 19 Rule 24-1 20-1 20-1 20 Schoolyard Dreams 3-2(f) 3-1(f) 30-1 21 Sidney's Candy 3-2(f) 33-1 15-1 22 Super Saver 20-1 24-1 20-1 23 Tempted to Tapit 3-2(f) 63-1 50-1 24 Field (all others) 3-2 3-1 8-1 |
Predictions on how many of the 23 don't make it to the starting gate for the Derby? Looks like a bunch to me.
|
At the risk of eating my words down the road...
...can't they come up with a better option than Aikenite? |
Quote:
|
Awesome Act @ 15-1 seems OK...
|
I don't see any as appealing whatsoever from a betting perspective in this group. However, I'm also banking on the Mine That Bird effect with so many people trying to hit a longshot because a 50-1 winning last year will be fresh in their minds. The MTB story will be the one that people who rarely bet all year will be hearing in the days leading up to the Derby anyways, which will help the odds on the horses who have a better shot.
|
Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.
Paul |
Quote:
I can't find any horse on here whose odds may be significantly lower on Derby day (if they make it) other than the 2 favorites, and that's pointless to bet anyway. |
The average odds for "All Others" in Pool 3 since 2000 is 14.4-1. The lowest it's ever closed was 6.7-1 in 2004. Right now it's 3-1.
Granted, they are holding Pool 3 a week earlier than usual, and normally we'd have the result of the Wood to go on. But that's still a pretty large deviation from the average. It'll probably climb some before the close tomorrow. --Dunbar |
Quote:
I agreed with you at first impression ... but actually, I don't blame them for including him. But you know he's at least scheduled to make his next start in the Ky Derby .. and the crop is so laughably bad outside of maybe 7 or 8 horses. About the only thing Mine That Bird had going for him last year was that he earned enough Graded Earnings to get into the thing when he won some abysmal 2yo stake in Canada. They wanted to take him back and use the Kentucky Derby as a prep for the Belmont.... an idea so crazy that it truly deserved a blanket of roses. |
Quote:
|
Derby Future Wager (Live odds)
POOL (As of 8am Sunday): $120k 1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 50 47 2 Alphie's Bet Alexis Barba 15 43 3 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 15 13 4 Caracortado Michael Machowsky 20 47 5 Connemara Todd Pletcher 20 68 6 Conveyance Bob Baffert 20 22 7 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 20 37 8 Dublin D. Lukas 15 16 9 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 5 6 10 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 60 11 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 12 18 12 Interactif Todd Pletcher 20 29 13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 30 48 14 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 6 5 15 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 30 37 16 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 25 17 Odysseus Thomas Albertrani 20 16 18 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward 20 37 19 Rule Todd Pletcher 20 27 20 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan 30 51 21 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 15 25 22 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 20 50 23 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris 50 54 24 All Other Three Ye 8 3 |
Quote:
|
37-1 seems a little low on Pleasant Prince but if I had to bet -
|
Schoolyard Dreams and SuperSaver are good bets IMO, i think both will be half those odds on Derby Day.
|
Noble's Promise looks decent @ 25-1. It's not a stretch to see him beating Dublin again to win the Ark. When he does you'll likely get 12-1 on derby day.
|
Eskendereya with Looking and Lucky pays $42 while both of those with all other 3 yr olds pays $94 - $98
While an exacta box with Schoolyard Dreams - is what this thing is all about more digits than spaces 9999 I'm throwing Lucking at Lucky out and boxing some dream bets including Pleasant Prince I just noticed - for the exacta they don't show a pay off for all other 3 yr olds with all other 3 yr olds. |
Quote:
NT |
caracortado at 50/1 seems like a good play to me.
|
Quote:
|
Not at all Joseph.
This crop, while not the worst in recent memory, certainly isn't that deep or good. I fully expect this horse to run a big race if he goes to the Ky Derby. |
Quote:
duh thanks |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
He's not my type... Perfect trip winner of how many races? Vs shitty competition over synthetics. I doubt he's even half as good as Lucky or Candy and thats just out west. If he went to Oaklawn or NY for a prep I am sure he would get destroyed. |
Quote:
|
maybe another promising "field" horse Endorsement just trounced 2/5conveyance
-bt- |
Quote:
We agree on something. Toss the last. Look at the horse who won the Tokyo Stakes yesterday. He Couldn't get up against that Bernstein horse in the 5th race on the same card. Out wide wasn't the place to be that day. That's why Zenyata was kept inside. Atkinson isn't as smart as Smith. Unfortunately, they are calling for rain on Thursday. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the track is irregular again next Saturday. CARACORTADO has a huge heart. Don't underestimate him. Right now, I'd need at least 50/1, because he's a little small to be holding on(late) going 10f. Yea, it's important. Look at the difference in head size between the 2 top finishers in the Dubai World Cup. Also, he's 32nd (or whatever) on the graded money list. If they put a bad one in next Saturday, most of those horses in the Santa Anita Derby will be in bad shape. He's worth 50-1. |
Of the horses listed,these would be on my top ten list, in no particular order:
Caracoratado we'll see after prep Dublin improving every time Eskendereya obvious Looking At Lucky ditto Nobles Promise a tryer Odysseus we'll see after prep Pleasant Prince always a little behind Sidney's Candy looks good Tempted To Tapit could peak at the right time Make Music For Me wasn't that impressed, we'll see |
Field favored in final Future Wager
LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and the field were both bet down to 9-2 when wagering closed on the third and final Pool of Churchill Downs' 2010 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Sunday evening, but the field earned favoritism status. The "all others" wager was also favored in both of this year's earlier KDFW pools. It closed as the 3-2 choice in February's Pool 1 and the 3-1 fan's choice when wagering ended for Pool 2 on March 7. http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...e.cgi?id=17973 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER Final Odds -- Pool 3 NO. HORSE ODDS 1. Aikenite 58-1 2. Alphie's Bet* 46-1 3. Awesome Act* 13-1 4. Caracortado 27-1 5. Connemara 77-1 6. Conveyance 19-1 7. Discreetly Mine 44-1 8. Dublin 18-1 9. Eskendereya 5-1 10. Homeboykris* 72-1 11. Ice Box* 19-1 12. Interactif* 26-1 13. Jackson Bend 46-1 14. Lookin at Lucky 9-2 15. Make Music for Me* 40-1 16. Noble's Promise 19-1 17. Odysseus 18-1 18. Pleasant Prince* 38-1 19. Rule 30-1 20. Schoolyard Dreams* 44-1 21. Sidney's Candy 22-1 22. Super Saver 35-1 23. Tempted to Tapit 45-1 24. All Other Three-Year-Olds 9-2 (f) (*) denotes new wagering interest in Pool 3 |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Caracortado has about as much chance to win the Derby as me and the Fat Man in a horse suit.
Next. |
Quote:
NT |
Quote:
|
Quote:
NT |
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:55 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.