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-   -   3/36-28 (CD): Derby Future Pool 3 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35140)

Kasept 03-24-2010 01:44 PM

3/36-28 (CD): Derby Future Pool 3
 
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 3

No. Horse
Pool 1 odds
Pool 2 odds
Pool 3 M/L

1 Aikenite
54-1
57-1
50-1

2 Alphie's Bet
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
15-1

3 Awesome Act
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
15-1

4 Caracortado
3-2(f)
19-1
20-1

5 Connemara
3-2(f)
46-1
20-1

6 Conveyance
33-1
28-1
20-1

7 Discreetly Mine
3-2(f)
37-1
20-1

8 Dublin
20-1
10-1
15-1

9 Eskendereya
22-1
5-1
5-1

10 Homeboykris
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
50-1

11 Ice Box
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
12-1

12 Interactif
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
20-1

13 Jackson Bend
27-1
47-1
30-1

14 Lookin At Lucky
8-1
9-1
6-1

15 Make Music for Me
105-1
3-1(f)
30-1

16 Noble's Promise
36-1
26-1
12-1

17 Odysseus
3-2(f)
25-1
20-1

18 Pleasant Prince
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
20-1

19 Rule
24-1
20-1
20-1

20 Schoolyard Dreams
3-2(f)
3-1(f)
30-1

21 Sidney's Candy
3-2(f)
33-1
15-1

22 Super Saver
20-1
24-1
20-1

23 Tempted to Tapit
3-2(f)
63-1
50-1

24 Field (all others)
3-2
3-1
8-1

cakes44 03-24-2010 03:21 PM

Predictions on how many of the 23 don't make it to the starting gate for the Derby? Looks like a bunch to me.

justindew 03-24-2010 03:50 PM

At the risk of eating my words down the road...

...can't they come up with a better option than Aikenite?

Thunder Gulch 03-26-2010 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
At the risk of eating my words down the road...

...can't they come up with a better option than Aikenite?

I think I said the same thing when Mine That Bird was actually entered last year.

ninetoone 03-26-2010 10:09 AM

Awesome Act @ 15-1 seems OK...

cakes44 03-26-2010 10:22 AM

I don't see any as appealing whatsoever from a betting perspective in this group. However, I'm also banking on the Mine That Bird effect with so many people trying to hit a longshot because a 50-1 winning last year will be fresh in their minds. The MTB story will be the one that people who rarely bet all year will be hearing in the days leading up to the Derby anyways, which will help the odds on the horses who have a better shot.

pweizer 03-26-2010 10:39 AM

Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.

Paul

lemoncrush 03-26-2010 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.

Paul

I agree...I guess they think people would love to bet a future on a horse who's only race in 2010 was a 2nd place finish in an Allowance race.

I can't find any horse on here whose odds may be significantly lower on Derby day (if they make it) other than the 2 favorites, and that's pointless to bet anyway.

Dunbar 03-27-2010 07:49 PM

The average odds for "All Others" in Pool 3 since 2000 is 14.4-1. The lowest it's ever closed was 6.7-1 in 2004. Right now it's 3-1.

Granted, they are holding Pool 3 a week earlier than usual, and normally we'd have the result of the Wood to go on. But that's still a pretty large deviation from the average. It'll probably climb some before the close tomorrow.

--Dunbar

The Indomitable DrugS 03-27-2010 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
Did I miss the race that Homeboykris ran that merits his inclusion here when he was not in pool one or two? I am baffled by that one.

Paul


I agreed with you at first impression ... but actually, I don't blame them for including him.

But you know he's at least scheduled to make his next start in the Ky Derby .. and the crop is so laughably bad outside of maybe 7 or 8 horses.

About the only thing Mine That Bird had going for him last year was that he earned enough Graded Earnings to get into the thing when he won some abysmal 2yo stake in Canada. They wanted to take him back and use the Kentucky Derby as a prep for the Belmont.... an idea so crazy that it truly deserved a blanket of roses.

RockHardTen1985 03-27-2010 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone
Awesome Act @ 15-1 seems OK...

I like him a lot, but would never touch him at 15-1. Think about it... I doubt he can beat Eskendereya next week, even if he runs a good second, what could his odds possibly be Derby Day? I would expect Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box and Eskendereya to all be lower then him.... Im just assuming you can get 15-1 or 20-1 on derby day... Now if you think he's going to win next weekend you should crush the 15-1, because if he wins next weekend I think hes 6-1 or less in the Derby.

Kasept 03-28-2010 07:13 AM

Derby Future Wager (Live odds)

POOL (As of 8am Sunday): $120k

1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 50 47
2 Alphie's Bet Alexis Barba 15 43
3 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 15 13
4 Caracortado Michael Machowsky 20 47
5 Connemara Todd Pletcher 20 68
6 Conveyance Bob Baffert 20 22
7 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 20 37
8 Dublin D. Lukas 15 16
9 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 5 6
10 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 60
11 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 12 18
12 Interactif Todd Pletcher 20 29
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 30 48
14 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 6 5
15 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 30 37
16 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 25
17 Odysseus Thomas Albertrani 20 16
18 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward 20 37
19 Rule Todd Pletcher 20 27
20 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan 30 51
21 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 15 25
22 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 20 50
23 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris 50 54
24 All Other Three Ye 8 3

justindew 03-28-2010 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Derby Future Wager (Live odds)

POOL (As of 8am Sunday): $120k

1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 50 47
2 Alphie's Bet Alexis Barba 15 43
3 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 15 13
4 Caracortado Michael Machowsky 20 47
5 Connemara Todd Pletcher 20 68
6 Conveyance Bob Baffert 20 22
7 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 20 37
8 Dublin D. Lukas 15 16
9 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 5 6
10 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 60
11 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 12 18
12 Interactif Todd Pletcher 20 29
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 30 48
14 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 6 5
15 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 30 37
16 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 25
17 Odysseus Thomas Albertrani 20 16
18 Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward 20 37
19 Rule Todd Pletcher 20 27
20 Schoolyard Dreams Derek Ryan 30 51
21 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 15 25
22 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 20 50
23 Tempted to Tapit Steve Klesaris 50 54
24 All Other Three Ye 8 3

Schoolyard Dreams.

AeWingnut 03-28-2010 08:24 AM

37-1 seems a little low on Pleasant Prince but if I had to bet -

Scav 03-28-2010 10:18 AM

Schoolyard Dreams and SuperSaver are good bets IMO, i think both will be half those odds on Derby Day.

wapete 03-28-2010 11:51 AM

Noble's Promise looks decent @ 25-1. It's not a stretch to see him beating Dublin again to win the Ark. When he does you'll likely get 12-1 on derby day.

AeWingnut 03-28-2010 12:02 PM

Eskendereya with Looking and Lucky pays $42 while both of those with all other 3 yr olds pays $94 - $98

While an exacta box with Schoolyard Dreams - is what this thing is all about more digits than spaces 9999

I'm throwing Lucking at Lucky out and boxing some dream bets including Pleasant Prince

I just noticed - for the exacta they don't show a pay off for all other 3 yr olds with all other 3 yr olds.

NTamm1215 03-28-2010 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut
Eskendereya with Looking and Lucky pays $42 while both of those with all other 3 yr olds pays $94 - $98

While an exacta box with Schoolyard Dreams - is what this thing is all about more digits than spaces 9999

I'm throwing Lucking at Lucky out and boxing some dream bets including Pleasant Prince

I just noticed - for the exacta they don't show a pay off for all other 3 yr olds with all other 3 yr olds.

The exacta can't pay field-field. Thus, if it's a field horse first, the first of the named runners in the pool behind that horse will be the second half of the exacta. For example, a result of field horse-field horse-field horse-Awesome Act would pay on field-Awesome Act.

NT

Indian Charlie 03-28-2010 01:34 PM

caracortado at 50/1 seems like a good play to me.

RockHardTen1985 03-28-2010 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
caracortado at 50/1 seems like a good play to me.

OMG...I know, Im 100% sure your joking.

Indian Charlie 03-28-2010 01:50 PM

Not at all Joseph.

This crop, while not the worst in recent memory, certainly isn't that deep or good.

I fully expect this horse to run a big race if he goes to the Ky Derby.

AeWingnut 03-28-2010 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
The exacta can't pay field-field. Thus, if it's a field horse first, the first of the named runners in the pool behind that horse will be the second half of the exacta. For example, a result of field horse-field horse-field horse-Awesome Act would pay on field-Awesome Act.

NT

oh, it's like 1 - 1A - 1X

duh

thanks

RockHardTen1985 03-28-2010 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Not at all Joseph.

This crop, while not the worst in recent memory, certainly isn't that deep or good.

I fully expect this horse to run a big race if he goes to the Ky Derby.

I fully expect him to run 15-20th.

Indian Charlie 03-28-2010 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
I fully expect him to run 15-20th.

I am very happy to learn that.

RockHardTen1985 03-28-2010 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I am very happy to learn that.

No problem...Anyone else you want my opinion on?

Indian Charlie 03-28-2010 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
No problem...Anyone else you want my opinion on?

Actually, I didn't want your opinion on him in the first place, but since you asked, why do you think so little of him?

RockHardTen1985 03-28-2010 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Actually, I didn't want your opinion on him in the first place, but since you asked, why do you think so little of him?


He's not my type... Perfect trip winner of how many races? Vs shitty competition over synthetics. I doubt he's even half as good as Lucky or Candy and thats just out west. If he went to Oaklawn or NY for a prep I am sure he would get destroyed.

Indian Charlie 03-28-2010 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
He's not my type... Perfect trip winner of how many races? Vs shitty competition over synthetics. I doubt he's even half as good as Lucky or Candy and thats just out west. If he went to Oaklawn or NY for a prep I am sure he would get destroyed.

Good, that's what I thought, that you'd say something like that.

-BT- 03-28-2010 06:54 PM

maybe another promising "field" horse Endorsement just trounced 2/5conveyance

-bt-

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2010 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
caracortado at 50/1 seems like a good play to me.


We agree on something. Toss the last. Look at the horse who won the Tokyo Stakes yesterday. He Couldn't get up against that Bernstein horse in the 5th race on the same card. Out wide wasn't the place to be that day. That's why Zenyata was kept inside. Atkinson isn't as smart as Smith. Unfortunately, they are calling for rain on Thursday. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the track is irregular again next Saturday. CARACORTADO has a huge heart. Don't underestimate him. Right now, I'd need at least 50/1, because he's a little small to be holding on(late) going 10f. Yea, it's important. Look at the difference in head size between the 2 top finishers in the Dubai World Cup. Also, he's 32nd (or whatever) on the graded money list. If they put a bad one in next Saturday, most of those horses in the Santa Anita Derby will be in bad shape. He's worth 50-1.

nomad 03-28-2010 11:07 PM

Of the horses listed,these would be on my top ten list, in no particular order:

Caracoratado we'll see after prep
Dublin improving every time
Eskendereya obvious
Looking At Lucky ditto
Nobles Promise a tryer
Odysseus we'll see after prep
Pleasant Prince always a little behind
Sidney's Candy looks good
Tempted To Tapit could peak at the right time
Make Music For Me wasn't that impressed, we'll see

Patrick333 03-29-2010 07:43 AM

Field favored in final Future Wager

LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and the field were both bet down to 9-2 when wagering closed on the third and final Pool of Churchill Downs' 2010 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Sunday evening, but the field earned favoritism status. The "all others" wager was also favored in both of this year's earlier KDFW pools. It closed as the 3-2 choice in February's Pool 1 and the 3-1 fan's choice when wagering ended for Pool 2 on March 7.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...e.cgi?id=17973


2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER

Final Odds -- Pool 3

NO. HORSE ODDS
1. Aikenite 58-1
2. Alphie's Bet* 46-1
3. Awesome Act* 13-1
4. Caracortado 27-1
5. Connemara 77-1
6. Conveyance 19-1
7. Discreetly Mine 44-1
8. Dublin 18-1
9. Eskendereya 5-1
10. Homeboykris* 72-1
11. Ice Box* 19-1
12. Interactif* 26-1
13. Jackson Bend 46-1
14. Lookin at Lucky 9-2
15. Make Music for Me* 40-1
16. Noble's Promise 19-1
17. Odysseus 18-1
18. Pleasant Prince* 38-1
19. Rule 30-1
20. Schoolyard Dreams* 44-1
21. Sidney's Candy 22-1
22. Super Saver 35-1
23. Tempted to Tapit 45-1
24. All Other Three-Year-Olds 9-2 (f)

(*) denotes new wagering interest in Pool 3

the_fat_man 03-29-2010 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
We agree on something. Toss the last. Look at the horse who won the Tokyo Stakes yesterday. He Couldn't get up against that Bernstein horse in the 5th race on the same card. Out wide wasn't the place to be that day. That's why Zenyata was kept inside. Atkinson isn't as smart as Smith. Unfortunately, they are calling for rain on Thursday. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the track is irregular again next Saturday. CARACORTADO has a huge heart. Don't underestimate him. Right now, I'd need at least 50/1, because he's a little small to be holding on(late) going 10f. Yea, it's important. Look at the difference in head size between the 2 top finishers in the Dubai World Cup. Also, he's 32nd (or whatever) on the graded money list. If they put a bad one in next Saturday, most of those horses in the Santa Anita Derby will be in bad shape. He's worth 50-1.

In other words, Caracortado got a perfect trip in the RBL and just about the best trip one could ever imagine in the CBC. When it came time for him to show that he could run without the best possible trip, he clunked up for 3rd in the SF. Wake me up when this guy runs an against the grain race.

Left Bank 03-29-2010 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
I fully expect him to run 15-20th.

Kinda like your first time starter did???

Thunder Gulch 03-29-2010 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-
maybe another promising "field" horse Endorsement just trounced 2/5conveyance

-bt-

Please tell me I don't have to start paying attention to the Sunland Derby now. Reminds me of the early part of the decade when we all of a sudden had to notice Illinois.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-29-2010 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
In other words, Caracortado got a perfect trip in the RBL and just about the best trip one could ever imagine in the CBC. When it came time for him to show that he could run without the best possible trip, he clunked up for 3rd in the SF. Wake me up when this guy runs an against the grain race.

I'm saying throw out the races that took place at Anita on March 13th. You see that little rat trying to hold on from the 1 hole against Zenyata? They couldn't run that hog down for place. I know that was a fkd up inside speed biased track. Look at the huge move from Interactif on the turn. That's an inside move. Caracortado wasn't getting his moneysworth out there. He ran his same race, but he was running on a much heavier surface than the top 2 were running on. The horse who won the 5th? Never been able to hold on before at Anita. No matter how slow the pace. He'd always been caught. March 13th he found something he really liked. Tap It Light couldn't get to him with the wide move (same as Caracortado couldn't make up ground out there.) Tap It just came back to win the Grade 3 feature on Saturday. You should excuse horses that tried to make outside moves on March 13th. No matter what this guy does next, excuse anybody trying to make a wide move on March 13th.

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2010 11:51 AM

Caracortado has about as much chance to win the Derby as me and the Fat Man in a horse suit.

Next.

NTamm1215 03-29-2010 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Caracortado has about as much chance to win the Derby as me and the Fat Man in a horse suit.

Is Dominguez riding cause your Future Pool 3 price might have been lower than Connemara and Aikenite?

NT

randallscott35 03-29-2010 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Is Dominguez riding cause your Future Pool 3 price might have been lower than Connemara and Aikenite?

NT

Still can't believe Aikenite has been in every future pool.

NTamm1215 03-29-2010 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Still can't believe Aikenite has been in every future pool.

I think he's a cinch to outfinish Interactif, who is a prime candidate for Todd's last place runner.

NT


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