The 3yo's are finally starting to look less horrible
 

Sidney's Candy is the fastest 2-year-old in the history of Del Mar Synthetics by an incredibly wide margin.

The 99 Beyer he earned in his maiden win is 8 full points higher than any other 2yo race ever run at Del Mar since the switch to synthetics.

Only two 2yo's had run 91's at Del Mar before .. they are eventual 2yo champion Midshipman and Details R Sketchy - both ran 91's in their debut win. Details R Sketchy only had a 4 race career .. he won his first two starts - and was beaten a neck by Dancing In Silks in his 4th and final start. Dancing In Silks followed that narrow win up with 3 straight stakes wins including a Breeders Cup Sprint upset.

I thought Sidney's Candy looked great today crushing a moderate field in the San Vincente. A 4+ length margin of victory - and gaps of more than a length between each horse in the field from first to last place are things very rarely seen in synthetic races - so that's a great sign as well.

The obvious question now is how far will he go and how well will he run on dirt?

I think he projects pretty well for both. His sire Candy Ride put on a spectacular display when mopping the floor with a razor sharp Medaglia D' Oro at 10fs in the Pacific Classic. His 2nd dam Exchange won a Grade 1 at 10fs and a Grade 2 at 12fs - and ran very good 2nd's to top mares like Paseanna and Hollywood Wildcat on dirt.

At Tampa, Rule made the best of a soft trip and finished strongly to win the Sam Davis with a 98 Beyer. He's the 3rd Pletcher trained winner of the race in the last five years. Any Given Dog Biscuit won the '07 running with a 95 Beyer. Bluegrass Dog won the '06 running with a 96 Beyer. Both of them would eventually win the Haskell later on.

Finally - Caracortado is now a perfect 5-for-5 after another clear cut win in the Bob Lewis. The 97 Beyer is exactly one point less than the 98 earned by Pioneer of the Nile in last year's Bob Lewis... and that was the race where Papa Clem ran 2nd and I Want Revenge ran 3rd and some tried to make it out to be the key race of the century.

Bred for durability and soundness .. Caracortado's sire ran exactly once and his dam was unraced - he has already answered the dirt and distance question with a compelling win in a 4f maiden claiming race on real dirt at Fairplex.

Dave In Dixie was a nice - but non-threatening 2nd in his first try since the Norfolk.

Oh yeah - and Conveyance did nothing wrong either.

Scavs has already pre booked 8 Bob Gary mares to Cat Dreams Indiana watch OUT

Cat Dreams had the makings of a pretty nice horse.

As for Conveyance, how much did you wager on him in the futures pool?

Stop it

To tell you the truth at 1500 a shot and with the Indy money as strong as it is... you get 5 decent mares that can produce and you will have 3 or 4 solid earners

$0.00

$10 at 75/1 right before his race last month.

They do show betting on Derby futures now?

lack of sleep, sorry!

The Indy program is exactly like the Penn program. It is going to rapidly get better because people are dropping foals there because dropping in KY makes zero sense.

The major problem with the Indy program is their lack of stakes races for IN bred horses. IL has four days specific to IL breds, 75-100k races, IN has two and only one or two route races.

They do write Allowance races up to nw4, and have an open allowance condition for IN breds, so that is a positive

gl getting a stud fee on an indy bred after they 'have done enough' thats why people drop in kentucky



The Indy program is exactly like the Penn program. It is going to rapidly get better because people are dropping foals there because dropping in KY makes zero sense.

I get it now...There are plenty of non-KY stallions.

Wasn't Smart Strike an Ontario bred?

Yes.

He's an Ontario bred that is bred better than 99.99% of Kentucky breds.

Have to see how he comes out of it. Last Summer, I thought he was more talented than L.A.L. This horse comes from a highly enhancing barn. As you might have noticed, he doesn't have a Breeders Cup Win. So, they don't do quite as well when they come under more thorough testing. So, there are actually 4 issues:

1) Durability ..hello

2) Distance

3) Synth. to Dirt

4) Trainer's ability to get horses to perform while under more extensive blood testing than routinely encountered.

The word talented shouldn't be associated with Lookin At Lucky until he proves otherwise.

I like how TVG's worst analysts are so fond of picking out a random horse that ran against two seperate horses in totally differnt types of races and comparing them as though it's some sort of conclusive measuring stick and such pesky things as race-to-race circumstances are unimportant.

For instance ... The Program was beaten 14 lengths by Sidney's Candy at Del Mar. But ... The Program was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Looking At Lucky in the Hollywood Futurity.

It will be interesting to see what shakes out of the three races going this Saturday on dirt.

But I am really looking forward to the filly race at GP the following Saturday. Mr. Cobra Venom's filly could be any kind.

Same here.

I don't know what to make of horses like Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend just yet.

Obviously Buddy's Saint's 2nd race was huge - but it was a performance that came while racing on a very gold rail.

Well, I only put his initials, because I know how Eastern folks reflexively respond to that individual.

He's a full blown talent of Spectacular Bid and Seattle Slew like cloth compared to Yankee Bravo. :)

I looked up a few old races of Sidney's Candy's 2nd dam (Exchange) ... who can forget the most dreadful creation of all ... the jockey cam! As seen at 1:23 into the following clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnwiy...er_profilepage

Exactly. Not like these types of analyses come even remotely close to approximately TRUE ability measuring tools; like BEYERS, for example. :rolleyes:

Yeah - being able to understand both the value of race to race circumstances and final time figures is pretty important. Not that you still don't have countless other factors that are sometimes more important than both and sometimes not important at all.

I only type so much about Beyers because they work brilliantly comparing horses many years apart, because the scale is consistant over time, and because I make my own figs on their scale.

He's amazing... but not even the best Ontario-bred stallion/racehorse standing in Kentucky.

Don't tell me you think Awesome Again is bred better than him?

Exchange was a really game filly, but not really the most talented runner of all time. I always thought of her as a Spawr juice job.

A nice juiced overachiever who could run on dirt or turf, and I think had some decent sprint races in her career.

Seems like Exchange was constantly overbet chalk. That much I remember. That was like the replacement for Paseana. She was good, but not great. Like in this race, she goes in 1:13:32, and (big surprise) she wants to hold on going 1:49 n' change. She was good enough for your purposes. Is this the best mare Candy Ride got? Is that why he was named after the owner?

Exchange is the 2nd dam.

Wow. Searching for video of 2nd dams. Now I remember the one reservation I had about this horse last Summer. Lookin' at the win last August, I remember thinking this guy had some weird action. This is another talented runner Drugs likes that wants to twirl a lasso. I know a lot of people think that's not important, but look at the head-on today. He's twirling, and his front n' back aren't really lined up. Again, a big stride is overcoming the problem. You got to wonder about durability when they're getting around the track that way. That's now a 5th issue. 10 f is a long way to run when a 3 year old is moving that way. I like the horse, but there are some things that are red signs (to me.) Then, I notice the splits today weren't fast (compared to the other races on the main.) He was alone on a moderate pace. So, it may be a little less impressive than it appears. Hey, I like the horse, and it carrying the dead owner's name, but I think ya got to tread lightly with this guy (Run-on sentence -10 BTW pts.) I'm guessing he would tire going 10f. That's my gut feeling. I mean the trainers sort of acting like he knows the horse prefers 1 turn. Guess you could counter that he wanted to make sure n' get some graded money. When you look back at these horses (like when they're late in their 3 year old year,) you notice that these trainers really did know what the horse wanted to do. They are either in a hurry to get to 2 turning, or they aren't. They are almost always right, too. Look at who won this 7f race 2 years ago.

Forget about talent ...

If the sire is Candy Ride and the dam sire is Storm Cat .. it's a huge plus when the 2nd dam won 15-for-30 - could go 1 1/2 miles - could run well on any surface - and was considered an iron horse.

Few pedigrees shout 'probably unsound' more than a Candy Ride to Storm Cat.

I used to post on the Pedigreequery forum like 7 years ago and some guy was pitching Smart Strike when he first came out or shortly after his first few crops..Anyway he certainly was prolific

Better bred? Mr. P out of an excellent racemare and superior producer is difficult to argue against, even with Deputy Minister out of a broodmare of the year. I'm talking about race record and sire production. Race record it's no contest (even though Smart Strike was damn good), on production they are both amazing and would be my #1 and #1a choices if I had a good mare.

My point was more that a lot is made out of being a Kentucky Bred around here and that's kind of a hoax when you think about it. It's the same dopes who said Funny Cide couldn't win the Derby because he was a NY-Bred gelding. The horse doesn't care where he was born.

Awesome Again(for a top tier stallion) tosses a bunch of blanks..I mean some real crapola. Smart Strike is likely the next Indy..Maybe even better.

There's one of Smart Strike's blanks running Friday at Tampa. Unraced 3 yr old filly can be had for $8k.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.p...g=5&p=0&f=1&l=

There are more than a few Smart Strike's that can't run at all.

Check out Strikinglyhandsome next time he makes about his 20th straight start for maiden 5K claimers at Charles Town and gets drubbed like always.

The point is not that there arent plenty of crappy horses from both.

I know a guy that bred 2 mares to Smart strike in his first or second year standing at stud...Brilliant move, right?
neither ever made it to the track..total dog biscuits.

Looks like we'll be seeing Sidney's Candy on dirt before the Derby - he is probably going to the Gotham.

Bad news for Sadler, in New York they actually test and regulate illegal drug use.

Here is the best one of them all. If they are smart, they will take their time with him and point for the big summer races like the Haskell and the Travers. His name is Trappe Shot.

http://www.youtube.com/gulfstreampar...12/4SzHZMNI4aA

What was the Beyer on that one?

88