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-   -   What is Racing's Biggest Current Hurdle? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33387)

randallscott35 12-23-2009 09:25 AM
What is Racing's Biggest Current Hurdle?
 
Interested to see what people here think is the biggest current issue facing horse racing in the U.S.?

jms62 12-23-2009 09:30 AM
Having to open multiple accounts to bet all the big tracks due to signal battles.

MISTERGEE 12-23-2009 09:34 AM
might be simply expanding the fan base?

Gander 12-23-2009 09:35 AM
Probably the polytrack/cushion surfaces ruining the game and rendering meets that were once looked forward to and cherished, pretty much insignificant... a la Santa Anita and Keeneland.

freddymo 12-23-2009 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
Interested to see what people here think is the biggest current issue facing horse racing in the U.S.?
Other then getting Byk to toughin up on ATR's.. Too much racing which is encouraging bad horses being bred.

Coach Pants 12-23-2009 09:37 AM
The "Stars" of the game avoiding each other.

randallscott35 12-23-2009 09:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
might be simply expanding the fan base?
I think that's where I am on this as well.

Kasept 12-23-2009 10:17 AM
The Host/Guest simulcast revenue model. It is as much a source of the game's ills as anything. It's repair would go a long way to righting the wrongs.

randallscott35 12-23-2009 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
The Host/Guest simulcast revenue model. It is as much a source of the game's ills as anything. It's repair would go a long way to righting the wrongs.
How would you go about fixing it Steve?

cmorioles 12-23-2009 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
The Host/Guest simulcast revenue model. It is as much a source of the game's ills as anything. It's repair would go a long way to righting the wrongs.
It isn't that easy in my opinion. Right now, most of the handle is coming from people betting with a rebate. If you "repair" that model so the host track gets more, all you are going to do is cut the rebates of the biggest bettors.

The biggest hurdle to the game is declining handle. Now, there are a myriad of reasons for this. The economy is a convenient excuse, but far from the only one. There are too many races being run at too many tracks. Fields suck, so people don't bet as much. The takeout is certainly a factor. Even those that say they don't care about takeout can figure out they are going broke quicker. Signal wars don't help either. How many accounts do you need to bet all the North American tracks today? Three, four, five? It might be more next month.

Until the handle is addressed, fighting over the current shrinking pie is short sighted and a colossal waste of time.

Gander 12-23-2009 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
It isn't that easy in my opinion. Right now, most of the handle is coming from people betting with a rebate. If you "repair" that model so the host track gets more, all you are going to do is cut the rebates of the biggest bettors.

The biggest hurdle to the game is declining handle. Now, there are a myriad of reasons for this. The economy is a convenient excuse, but far from the only one. There are too many races being run at too many tracks. Fields suck, so people don't bet as much. The takeout is certainly a factor. Even those that say they don't care about takeout can figure out they are going broke quicker. Signal wars don't help either. How many accounts do you need to bet all the North American tracks today? Three, four, five? It might be more next month.

Until the handle is addressed, fighting over the current shrinking pie is short sighted and a colossal waste of time.
I agree. Gamblers will always find money to bet. Much in the same way drug addicts and alcoholics do the same. Recession or no recession...Vices are always "recession proof", if you will.

Kasept 12-23-2009 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
It isn't that easy in my opinion. Right now, most of the handle is coming from people betting with a rebate. If you "repair" that model so the host track gets more, all you are going to do is cut the rebates of the biggest bettors.

The biggest hurdle to the game is declining handle. Now, there are a myriad of reasons for this. The economy is a convenient excuse, but far from the only one. There are too many races being run at too many tracks. Fields suck, so people don't bet as much. The takeout is certainly a factor. Even those that say they don't care about takeout can figure out they are going broke quicker. Signal wars don't help either. How many accounts do you need to bet all the North American tracks today? Three, four, five? It might be more next month.

Until the handle is addressed, fighting over the current shrinking pie is short sighted and a colossal waste of time.
Think we're on the same page on this generally. 'Declining handle' is a broad-based issue that cuts through a wide array of the more mundane to intricate issues.. Agree wholeheartedly about too many races at too many tracks. The boutique meet philosophy continues to stand as the example to be emulated: Less racing of full fields for better purses = solid handle. From what I read and hear, adjusting the revenue split reasonably does not have to take away from rebates. And if the top level bricks and mortar operators had an appropriate 'modern era' revenue stream from the simo model, they could more easily approach state governments with plans for takeout reductions.

There is no simplistic 'fix-all' here is the message I think... There are so many inter-related issues that depend on almost a domino effect. That's why in the "Our Industry" segments I'm doing with Satish Sanan, we keep coming back to his 4 point program that tries to address things comprehensively AND specifically:

1. Overall Industry structure and governance
2. Re-sizing game and repairing the revenue model
3. Integrity (Medication; Safety; Tote; Sales)
4. Horseplayer/Customer-centric Marketing/Service

MISTERGEE 12-23-2009 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I agree. Gamblers will always find money to bet. Much in the same way drug addicts and alcoholics do the same. Recession or no recession...Vices are always "recession proof", if you will.
Dont know about that--"discretionary income" is way down for many

Riot 12-23-2009 10:50 AM
Lack of one overall industry organization = Fractured fifdoms with no national coordination of major issues: drugs-perception, wagering, calendar-scheduling-excess racing/disposable horses

jms62 12-23-2009 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Think we're on the same page on this generally. 'Declining handle' is a broad-based issue that cuts through a wide array of the more mundane to intricate issues.. Agree wholeheartedly about too many races at too many tracks. The boutique meet philosophy continues to stand as the example to be emulated: Less racing of full fields for better purses = solid handle. From what I read and hear, adjusting the revenue split reasonably does not have to take away from rebates. And if the top level bricks and mortar operators had an appropriate 'modern era' revenue stream from the simo model, they could more easily approach state governments with plans for takeout reductions.

There is no simplistic 'fix-all' here is the message I think... There are so many inter-related issues that depend on almost a domino effect. That's why in the "Out Industry" segments I'm doing with Satish Sanan, we keep coming back to his 4 point program that tries to address things comprehensively AND specifically:

1. Overall Industry structure and governance
2. Re-sizing game and repairing the revenue model
3. Integrity (Medication; Safety; Tote; Sales)
4. Horseplayer/Customer-centric Marketing/Service
Steve is there anywhere that we can go to see the specifics of how Satish feels the 4 points can be addressed.

philcski 12-23-2009 10:56 AM
#1 Takeout too high
#2 Taxes on windfalls causes jackpot-style wagers to be no longer attractive

Indian Charlie 12-23-2009 11:19 AM
#1 Idiots in charge of tracks, BC, etc making one bad decision after another, for years now.

It's like they are hell bent on destroying the industry.

MISTERGEE 12-23-2009 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
#1 Idiots in charge of tracks, BC, etc making one bad decision after another, for years now.

It's like they are hell bent on destroying the industry.
yes Ive seen hot dog carts have much better management than Calder or Gulfstream down here in Fla for example

Indian Charlie 12-23-2009 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
yes Ive seen hot dog carts have much better management than Calder or Gulfstream down here in Fla for example

Also look at how the BC has been handled the last few years. They are trying to appeal to a select few rich and famous celebs and they have no regard for the typical fan. Their decisions really make no sense at all.

The CHRB decision to mandate synthetics? Don't get me started.

CD management just a year or so ago saying they don't want to host the BC, due to some made up nonsense? Now they want it?

The constant bickering with signal feeds?

Stronachs dismantling of GP?

It's really like they are all in a race with each other to see who can destroy themselves the quickest.

Maybe the Breeders Cup has some sort of secret race. It's restricted to racing management types and the first ones to destroy themselves are the winners. Purse, $100 mil.

Though, come to think of it, racings approach to running their businesses is pretty consistent with the normal way of doing things lately across the board in big companies these days.

Stickhorse 12-23-2009 11:42 AM
We need to draw more fans to this great game.

The ITW that I attend in Cali has fewer patrons every year. Those in attendance average at least 55 years old.

cmorioles 12-23-2009 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stickhorse
We need to draw more fans to this great game.

The ITW that I attend in Cali has fewer patrons every year. Those in attendance average at least 55 years old.
The game doesn't need fans. The game needs gamblers.

the_fat_man 12-23-2009 12:23 PM
No doubt the game needs an influx of need blood. And, the best way to attract new players is to follow the model of POKER. Check out all the new players that POKER drew by providing special treatment for all their HIGH ROLLERS. I mean, in the World Series of Poker, for example, all HIGH ROLLERS get a 10% rebate on their stack. So, all the HIGH ROLLERS (including the BEST PLAYERS) aren't really winning on their own (for the most part).

Yeah.

What racing really needs to do is show all the gamblers out there looking for a new game that ALL PLAYERS are treated EVENLY. And, that having a NEGATIVE ROI means that you LOSE MONEY.

If they can't attract players to the game using this model, then maybe they need the game to be a bit SIMPLER. Keeping the game difficult for some while making it simpler for others is not exactly the way to go about making it an attractive proposition.

I bet a lot of money, so I need an unfair advantage. This might work when it comes to dealing with banks, for example, but, in situations where there's a choice, it's not happening.

Gander 12-23-2009 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
The game doesn't need fans. The game needs gamblers.
I dont think you have much to worry about. How is this game going to attract new fans when the few stars we do have run 4-5 race campaigns and take 7 months off between starts. From tomorrow's DRF....

Fabulous Strike is getting a break on a farm in Ocala, Fla., and will be pointed to a limited 7-year-old campaign in 2010 that his connections hope ends with a start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs in November.

A multiple stakes winner, Fabulous Strike has not raced since getting run down by Kodiak Kowboy in the Grade 1 Vosburgh in the slop at Belmont in early October.

A much deserved break after running all of what, 5 times in 2009?

johnny pinwheel 12-23-2009 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
#1 Idiots in charge of tracks, BC, etc making one bad decision after another, for years now.

It's like they are hell bent on destroying the industry.
i agree with the indian and some of the other posts which point out the crummy decisions. Poly in Cali where its hot, there is no "weather"...stupid,stupid,stupid. poly at keenland, those are what i call lost causes right there. i rarely bet that crap! the horses have to "avoid" each other because of specialized tracks. whose going to send a horse to run in a big race on poly when you know you have no shot? after two years of breeders cups there(which is another joke of a decision) the connections for dirt horses know its a farce. charging for parking, admission and all the other crap when casinos are giving things away and you walk in the joint free! turning gulfstream park into some kind of racino/mall.....brilliant. i could go on and on and on and on.........

Kasept 12-23-2009 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I dont think you have much to worry about. How is this game going to attract new fans when the few stars we do have run 4-5 race campaigns and take 7 months off between starts. From tomorrow's DRF....

Fabulous Strike is getting a break on a farm in Ocala, Fla., and will be pointed to a limited 7-year-old campaign in 2010 that his connections hope ends with a start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs in November.

A multiple stakes winner, Fabulous Strike has not raced since getting run down by Kodiak Kowboy in the Grade 1 Vosburgh in the slop at Belmont in early October.

A much deserved break after running all of what, 5 times in 2009?
The 'sticking around' schtick makes for a nice argument, but it's a canard in this conversation. Stars may matter to 'fans', but they don't matter to gamblers. CJ has always been right on this subject, and was banging that drum before anyone. People who will make the difference at the windows contributing to handle in a meaningful way couldn't care less how long some high profile horse is around... (unless they are a money-burning favorite type of course).


Separately, why in the world would Fabulous Strike draw ire? All he does is show up every time out. Horses that run really fast are the most likely to get hurt and most likely to need time between starts. Todd Beattie has handled Fabulous Strike brilliantly, and his scheduling has ALLOWED him to make the starts he has and still have a horse going into his 7yo season.

freddymo 12-23-2009 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I dont think you have much to worry about. How is this game going to attract new fans when the few stars we do have run 4-5 race campaigns and take 7 months off between starts. From tomorrow's DRF....

Fabulous Strike is getting a break on a farm in Ocala, Fla., and will be pointed to a limited 7-year-old campaign in 2010 that his connections hope ends with a start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs in November.

A multiple stakes winner, Fabulous Strike has not raced since getting run down by Kodiak Kowboy in the Grade 1 Vosburgh in the slop at Belmont in early October.

A much deserved break after running all of what, 5 times in 2009?
How many G1 horses campaign every 4 weeks?

Gander 12-23-2009 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo
How many G1 horses campaign every 4 weeks?
If you are asking how many Grade 1 horses run 12 times a year, the answer is very few (if any), none of which I can name. But 4-5 race campaigns is to be the norm? Summer Bird ran more. So too did Gio Ponti.

I guess running 9-10 times a year is too demanding given the new medications most horses run on.

Sightseek 12-23-2009 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
The 'sticking around' schtick makes for a nice argument, but it's a canard in this conversation. Stars may matter to 'fans', but they don't matter to gamblers. CJ has always been right on this subject, and was banging that drum before anyone. People who will make the difference at the windows contributing to handle in a meaningful way couldn't care less how long some high profile horse is around... (unless they are a money-burning favorite type of course).


Separately, why in the world would Fabulous Strike draw ire? All he does is show up every time out. Horses that run really fast are the most likely to get hurt and most likely to need time between starts. Todd Beattie has handled Fabulous Strike brilliantly, and his scheduling has ALLOWED him to make the starts he has and still have a horse going into his 7yo season.
Well it does kind of effect everyone overall when the lack of stars are responsible for not filling Stakes races and what should be a huge day for a track isn't.

Gander 12-23-2009 01:04 PM
I like both: Betting on cheap races and watching races where Fabulous Strike wins at 3/5 type odds, a la the Vanderbilt and True North. Guess I will have to wait until April to see Fabulous Strike again.

Any guesses on his return race? The Carter?

Kasept 12-23-2009 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Well it does kind of effect everyone overall when the lack of stars are responsible for not filling Stakes races and what should be a huge day for a track isn't.
So 6-8 sophomores per year that may retire arguably early are responsible for stakes not filling to the brim? I don't buy that. While an overall lack of 'good' horses contributes to the problem, Stakes races with narrow fields are due to the inane overabundance of opportunities. There's too many stakes for the amount of horses. Cut down the stakes and boost the purses and you'll see what happens.

Duvalier 12-23-2009 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
I like both: Betting on cheap races and watching races where Fabulous Strike wins at 3/5 type odds, a la the Vanderbilt and True North. Guess I will have to wait until April to see Fabulous Strike again.

Any guesses on his return race? The Carter?
According to Dave Grening's article in DRF a start in April or May is possible...but it didn't mention a specific race.

Riot 12-23-2009 01:13 PM
As important as gamblers are to horse racing, it's a pretty expensive and inefficient way to provide that entertainment or livelihood.

Providing a gambling outlet is not why breeders, owners, trainers, track workers form a whole industry around, and dedicate their lives, to a live animal.

Sightseek 12-23-2009 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
So 6-8 sophomores per year that may retire arguably early are responsible for stakes not filling to the brim? I don't buy that. While an overall lack of 'good' horses contributes to the problem, Stakes races with narrow fields are due to the inane overabundance of opportunities. There's too many stakes for the amount of horses. Cut down the stakes and boost the purses and you'll see what happens.
I agree with you about there being too many opportunities.

Kasept 12-23-2009 01:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duvalier
According to Dave Grening's article in DRF a start in April or May is the target...but it didn't mention a specific race.
Work backwards...

BC Sprint at Churchill (Nov)...

Vosburgh (Oct)

Vanderbilt (Aug)

True North (June)

Churchill Downs H. (May, but don't know if you want to go 7f first start back)

Gander 12-23-2009 01:20 PM
Steve, has Fabulous Strike ever run at Churchill? Why not the Carter?

Duvalier 12-23-2009 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Work backwards...

BC Sprint at Churchill (Nov)...

Vosburgh (Oct)

Vanderbilt (Aug)

True North (June)

Churchill Downs H. (May, but don't know if you want to go 7f first start back)
Interesting...thanks. The Aristides at Churchill in June was mentioned as a possibility for one of his starts also. The horse really has been well handled by Beattie throughout his career...props to him.

The Indomitable DrugS 12-23-2009 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
has Fabulous Strike ever run at Churchill?
Yes

Sightseek 12-23-2009 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
So 6-8 sophomores per year that may retire arguably early are responsible for stakes not filling to the brim? I don't buy that. While an overall lack of 'good' horses contributes to the problem, Stakes races with narrow fields are due to the inane overabundance of opportunities. There's too many stakes for the amount of horses. Cut down the stakes and boost the purses and you'll see what happens.
Question though - who do you let fail and who makes changes to their Stakes schedule and or cuts live racing days? I know everyone says that this needs to be done, yet simultaneously they are signing petitions to save xyz track and talking about how slots need to be approved etc.

First and foremost, the continuing decline of handle needs to be addressed, but once you really delve into the topic there are so many smaller factors that affect this and need fixing too.

Coach Pants 12-23-2009 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
The 'sticking around' schtick makes for a nice argument, but it's a canard in this conversation. Stars may matter to 'fans', but they don't matter to gamblers. CJ has always been right on this subject, and was banging that drum before anyone. People who will make the difference at the windows contributing to handle in a meaningful way couldn't care less how long some high profile horse is around... (unless they are a money-burning favorite type of course).


Separately, why in the world would Fabulous Strike draw ire? All he does is show up every time out. Horses that run really fast are the most likely to get hurt and most likely to need time between starts. Todd Beattie has handled Fabulous Strike brilliantly, and his scheduling has ALLOWED him to make the starts he has and still have a horse going into his 7yo season.
You need to add "fans" in order to have a shot at turning them into "gamblers."

It's difficult to do that when the top horses run 4-6 times a year.

randallscott35 12-23-2009 01:40 PM
You need to turn gamblers into fans. Horse racing needs to lower the takeout. It is not a non-starter. It needs to be done across the board.


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