Lookin at Sucky
 

WOW 83 Beyer for what would be the Ky Derby favorite if Future pools opened today.

He's had a lot of cozy trips and lost the only time he didn't. It's amazing how many MSW and ALW winners will go into 2010 looking as good if not better than the two "favorites" right now.

NT

It didn't even look that fast.

All bets are off because of the synthetics, obviously.

Last year, the 1-2 horses ran an 86 and we all know IWR rattled off 113 and 103 Beyers respectively when switched to dirt.

CA and its major 2yo/3yo races are obsolete now as a proving ground for Derby horses, which is a shame because it was potent for quite a stretch in the '80s and '90s, and obviously there are still a few horses who may prefer dirt (eg IWR, Papa Clem, Colonel John, Gayego, etc) that are at a huge disadvantage as far as competing in the Triple Crown is concerned.

Who are the 2 favorites? Dublin and Wow Wow Wow?

More than the speed, right now I'd have a hard time embracing Lucky going forward toward real routes of ground based on his early eagerness. Every race he hits the backstretch and is fighting to go on. If that isn't cured, it won't matter how much he may move up on dirt. He may be outrunning horses right now, but the true two turn horses will devour him down the road if he can't relax.

Afleet Express will probably be the Derby favorite.

This is bold, he's a maiden winner who ran slow.

I don't think that's accurate. The Hollywood Futurity is the first time he pulled down the backstretch, and was most likely a by-product of Bob Baffert wanting the horse closer to the pace after the way the trip in the BC panned out. In addition, the pace was dawdling yesterday, especially since the track seemed to be playing fast (at least in the sprints).

To hear most people, whether fans or critics of the horse, his ability to relax (ie professionalism/maturity) is perhaps his main strength.

He is only going to run in 2 more races before the Derby. Where is the question. Oaklawn, Florida, NY.:confused:

RT,

Might be right... I think in the Norfolk you can see him throwing his head and really wanting to go. He does settle there, as he did yesterday, but when they start going 9f and beyond, that starts to catch up with you. I just get the feeling watching him that he wants to get to the front sooner than Gomez wants him there.

If they are in it just for the dough, he'll stay on the west coast. Is Lucky this years Pioneer of the Nile?

Looking at Lucy is probably not the best Baffert runner

They would be crazy not to keep him on the junk. Easy money. A la Pioneer of a Nile. Afleet Express is running in 2 weeks at GP in an allowance where he will be like 3/5.
Then he'll run in the FOY where he'll be vieng for favortism with Buddys Saint. Then its the Florida Derby, a la Quality Road. I see no reason this horse wont be favored if he is in the gate in the KY Derby.

oh, there's a reason. silly season, with a new, hot horse every week, is about to commence. i can't wait!

I know you're prone to hyperbole but I think your confidence in Afleet Express is a little excessive.

NT

I didnt say he was going to win the Derby, I just said he'd probably be the favorite. My guess is people will flock to him after he wins a few races at Gulfstream, especially if he does what QR did last year, and there is no reason to think that is far fetched given the current players pointed to the Gulfstream preps. His trainer rarely shows his emotions and overconfidence, but from what I hear, he is putting all his eggs in this basket.

Baffert said his next start would probably be on dirt.

I would guess Florida but it depends on how long he sits

Agree!

LOL! Baffert said he will run two preps on dirt next year. I would guess he goes head-to-head with Pletcher's best.

Considering that Baffert has sent many top 3yos of both sexes (General Challenge, Captain Steve, Indian Blessing, SBD, and Chiluki) to Fair Grounds, I would say that if LAL has two dirt preps next year, the first and maybe the second will be at Fair Grounds.

My guess is maybe the Wood........

That Malibu Moon horse Baffert sent out there yesterday has nice action. Wasn't tired after the race, either. Had the blinks n' silks color coordinated. I would imagine he runs him in the San Pedro Stakes around 1 turn(unless the owner gets Derby Fever.)

After the race Baffert said he was going to give the horse an extended break and run two times. We probably won't see Lookin at Lucky unil March.

Baffert has a history of shipping to Fairgrounds. However the Louisiana Derby will be run on March 27th in 2010 which is five weeks prior to Kentucky Derby 136. If he ships out of So Cal I think the next time we'll see Lookin at Lucky is either in the March 6th Gotham Stakes or the March 13th Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

I'm just glad the worst weekend in horse racing all year long is now over and we can look forward to Aqueduct being back in action on Saturday. Hollywoof is abysmal and cant carry horse racing on its back. We need Aqueduct.

:zz:

I think there is still some possible upside to Lookin at Lucky.

For starters, he's a very late foal, born on 5/27. It's not often you see such late foals have such success at this stage in their careers.

Another is that he has a half brother that had two grade 2 wins on dirt this year, in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy. That horse, Kensei, might have gone on to good things if not weighted down by the PG1985 hype ball and chain.

I hated Kensei and heavily bet against him a number of times.

Really?

I thought you were high on him before you became sour, but I could easily be wrong.

It's often difficult keeping track of all your opinions, after all.

No not me. I was crazy about Warriors Reward.

Well considering they started off the race 24 and 48....how fast do people expect him to run? He's clearly better than a beyer in the 80s would have one believe. Unless the track was just playing super slow, which in that case I retract my statement.

Back away from the bong

everyone mentioned zenyatta having all those low beyers as well. look where that got her.

maybe when beyer adjusted his numbers, he didn't adjust them enough for the syns. of course, if the #'s are consistent, then it doesn't matter.

Its only temporary and sorry if I cant take racing on rubber tires seriously.

Like Hard Spun or SJones?

2nd place finishes are still technically losses.

Clutch Player is a very nice horse. The stripes were tres chic.

Yes - it's not often you see horses run one of the entire decades top 5 best performances in defeat - and still have so much room for possible upside.

But hey, after you run slower than mediocre older fillies at the same day and distance .... I guess there is a lot of room for improvement.

Good thing for Pioneer of the Nile Lite (another May foal) - is that this time there appear to be no killers like Chocolate Candy or the sad synthetic surface version of I Want Revenge... at least at this time.

RIP.