Pletcher explains Flower Alley's last race
 

From today's DRF:

Flower Alley, who finished seventh as the 3-2 favorite in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap on Aug. 5, continued preparations for next month's Grade 1 Woodward here by breezing five furlongs in 1:02.27 Tuesday morning over Saratoga's main track.

After examining the Ragozin sheet numbers, trainer Todd Pletcher said he believes the Whitney came up a strong race and that Flower Alley, having had just one race under his belt, wasn't ready for a peak effort. Invasor won the Whitney by a nose over Sun King. Flower Alley was beaten nine lengths.

"The [Whitney] might not have been as bad as it seemed," Pletcher said. "According to the Ragozins, he ran just as fast there as he did [winning] the Salvator Mile, so it probably was a strong race. It was only his second start of the year. Hopefully, having that race under his belt, and today was his first of three breezes between the Whitney and the Woodward, I would think he would move forward for having done that."

It sounds like he is admitting Invasor is a better horse.

That is absolute nonsense. As I have said before, most trainers will not tell you what is wrong with their horse unless they are going to lay the horse up. I have no idea what is wrong with Flower Alley but I'm sure there is a problem. Let's just pretend that his knee is bothering him. Pletcher is not going to come out and tell you that his knee was bothering him and that they are going to inject it next time.

i disagree rupert. there isn't anything necessarily physically wrong with the horse. maybe he wasn't ready. they aren't going to jeopardize thousands in stud fees by continuing to run a horse if he has a problem. he wasn't fit and ready, one race since last october is no doubt the culprit. some horses fire well off of lots of rest and just works, others don't. it didn't work for him this time. i feel if he had a real issue physically, they'd send him to the farm now. wouldn't be the first time a promising horse went into retirement at this point in a career, certainly wouldn't be the last. they obviously think they know what the deal is, and feel he will improve. of course, that could just be wishful thinking, but i don't believe pletcher runs his stable based on wishes rather than logic.

My question is why didnt the best trainer in the game have his best horse ready for a race he was planning for since Dec of last year? Something is kind of weird.

don't know gander......

is it the time of year? pletcher gets a whole lot of newbies at that point, maybe flower alley got lost in the shuffle a bit. or maybe pletcher underestimated the competition and overestimated flower alleys ability to win after one start since the bcc last year.

Funny that the best horse in his stable would get lost in the shuffle, LOL! Cmmon. Something isnt right.

tim - maybe d wayne could help Todd turn him around

than why are they continuing on with him?? if something IS wrong, why keep going? if it's not serious enough to warrant stopping, than it isn't serious enough to keep him from competing, right? i think pletcher took it too easy with him. he had a big plan that worked out on paper, problem is you have to do it, not just show it can be done. the horse obviously wasn't ready to tackle the likes of invasor and sun king...who would have thought it? no one, everyone expected this horse to come out from last fall and win everything he entered....pletcher must have believed it too. oops.

i'm not saying flower alley got lost, but maybe he didn't pay as much attention, maybe he thought flower alley was doing so well that he was on auto pilot with him.

gotta say, i appreciate the likes of lava man and his campaign this year, rather than soft flower alley and his....maybe this year will show people that going too lightly is wrong, moderation is the key. not too much, not too little.

If it was his first race back that would be one thing. It wasn't his first race back. He ran really well in his first race back. He had plenty of works in between races. There is no way the horse would have been that short for the race. He could have been a length or two short but here is no way that he would be 10 lengths short. I can't say for sure that there is something physically wrong with the horse. Maybe he just wasn't feeling good that day. Maybe he had a little bug in his system that he was just getting over that went undetected. I'm sure there are some fairly harmless reasons as to why he didn't run well. But I can tell you that there is no way his bad performance was simply because he was short. If he would have run 3rd and got beaten by a length or two, then it could be a fitness issue.

You are right that they won't continue to run him if they think that he can't compete. They also will not run him if they think that he might break down. However, they will run him if they think the problem is something they can deal with and something that will not put the horse at any huge risk. If he has a little bit of an ankle injury, but they think they can inject and get one or two more races out of him, I'm sure they will do it. What's probably the worst thing that will happen? The worst thing that will probably happen is that the ankle will get a litttle worse. By him runing him on the ankle, it would jeopardize his chances of being able to run next year, but he's not running next year. He's retiring after two more races so it doesn't matter if the ankle gets a little bit worse.

I think that FA had a minor injury last year. He ran terrible and lost by about 15 lengths in his race right before the BC Classic. They probably injetced whatever was bothering him and get one more great race out of him(his 2nd place finish in the BC Classic). I think the same thing happened with Speighstown. He ran a lousy race right before the BC Sprint but he ran great in the BC Sprint. Most of these top trainers have very good vets and as long as the inujury is not too bad they can usually get one or two more races out of a horse. This happens all the time even with very good horses.

Gander,
You and I both know that horses run through pain all the time.
I agree that something isn't right.
Rupert also is correct in his assessment.
DTS

[quote=Danzig188]than why are they continuing on with him?? if something IS wrong, why keep going? if it's not serious enough to warrant stopping, than it isn't serious enough to keep him from competing, right?

No, that's not true. He may have a little problem that doesn't seem to be bothering him too much in the morning, but in the morning he's not even close to being all out. They don't want to inject him if they don't have to, so if they don't think the problem is bothering him, they may leave it alone. But then when the horse runs terrible, they realize that the problem is bothering him and they need to treat it next time. This type of thing happens all the time.

That is why you can't always throw out a horse based on one bad race. There is a good chance that the bad race was due to something physical. But there is also a good chance that they can treat it and get one or two more races out of the horse.

This is a dilemma that trainers face all the time. For example, let's say that Bernardini comes out of his next race with a pretty puffy ankle. Let's say the vet says that he needs two months off. The vet also tells them that they can probably get one or more two more races out of him if they inject him, but they will risk doing some permanent injury to the ankle. What should they do? Some of you may think it's a no-brainer and that they should not run the horse. If they were planning on retiring him at the end of the year any way, they would probably take a shot and try to win the BC Classic. If they are planning on running him next year, they still would not necessarily turn him out. They may take a shot and run him in the BC Classic and just hope that the ankle doesn't get any worse. If they are cautious they would turn him out to the farm immediately to make sure that he comes back 100% next year.

D Wayne Lukas? He could show him how to break him down. He has had alot of horses in his time and had little success with older horses much less bring one back from a lay up.

still waiting for lava man to win outside of california and he last race wasnt as good as it looked. he was all out to beat Ace Blue. He's vulnerable in the pacific classic.

Seriously, Flower Alley really hasnt won that much. Sure he got two Grade I's as a three year old but who has he really beaten in his career? He beat Bellamy Road in his 1st race back in the Travers (big deal) and he beat no one in the Jim Dandy. I really think the horse is overrated when I look closer. I have to admit I was really impressed me in the Salvatore Mile but I was wrong. I think the horse will be lucky to beat three year olds. I dont think anything is wrong other than he isnt as good as it seems.

I tend to agree with this. I think his rep was really earned based on that 2nd place in the BC Classic which was good, but not enough to suddenly make him "thee horse".

I'm inclined to give FA one more shot. If he can't produce next time out, I'll be ready to toss him as well, but off two races, I can't call him totally overrated or washed up..

Yet..

I assume you're kidding. That will be the day when one of the lowest percentage trainers helps one of the highest percentage trainers. Not only that, despite all of Lukas big wins in the past, he is not considered a good horseman at all. There is no good trainer that would want training advice from Lukas. Despite what any of us think about Lukas whether good or bad, he is the laughing stock around the backstretch. He has a terrible repuation and nobody has any respect for his training ability.

This is different from a guy like Jack Van Berg who doesn't win much any more but is still considered by some to be a good horseman.

Flower Alley has done much more to impress me than Invasor. Invasor beat a totally empty field in the Pimlico Special where nobody fired. In his next race, he beat a terrible field. Then in his last race he beat Sun King by a nose.

Flower Alley was pretty much on par and was probably slightly better than Roman Ruler last year. Sun King was not nearly as good as either of those horses last year. You could argue that Sun King has improved this year but I honestly don't think he has. I haven't been overly impressed with any of his races this year. I actually think he was better last year.

Flower Alley's coming within a length of Saint Liam showed what level he is on. SL ran Ghostzapper to a photo finish. FA is a very good horse on his best day. I think that Invasor is ridiculously overrated. I think that FA would easily handle him on his best day.

Its hysterical here that many of the same "experts" on this board who love Invasor have bashed Sun King repeatedly. How exactly does that work? Lets see if I get this right, one horse is king of the world and the other is a nothing rat. Yet the king of the world is the king of the world because he beats the "rat" by a nose? Wow!!
I actually like both horses, and like FA but don't know what to make of his last race either.

I think Flower Alley is big and FAT
Pletcher has to look at the sheets ? Didn't he watch the race?

I thought they were trying to pull a Tiznow.

run two preps and fire in the BC Classic

Sheesh, Rupert, Invasor is "ridiculously overrated"? Compared to WHOM? The horse has lost 1 race, right? In Dubai to Discreet Cat. He comes here and reels off 3 straight wins, 2 of them in races with hallowed names in American racing. He has 2 of the top 15 BSF's run in route races this year. He's not winning these races by default.

Using Sun King as a measure of how good Invasor is is like using Sharp Humor to measure Barbaro. I'm sure there are horses that did (and will) beat Sharp Humor by more than the 1/2-length that Barbaro beat him in the Florida Derby. Are those horses on a level with Barbaro because they handled Sharp Humor more easily?

oracle, I think there are legitimate reasons to like Invasor a lot more than Sun King. Sun King has run some nice races, but he has thrown in numerous clunkers, too. Consistency counts for a lot.

--Dunbar

first of all, we all know that form at two doesn't signify what a horse will do at three, and evidently what a horse does at three doesn't translate to four either. how you can be more impressed by a horse that's one for two on the year, than by a horse who has shipped around the world, and has lost once ever is beyond me.

besides, speculating that FA could beat invasor is one thing, actual results another. looks to me that invasor handled him just fine....

oh, and btw--this is danzig188...i'm at work, so i guess this will be my work sign in....

People who criticize Lava Man for not winning out of his home state absolutely crack me up. Actually criticizing a horse thats one multiple grade ones this year on 2 different surfaces. Flower Alley rests all winter and cant even be competitive in a race on his bread and butter track. Granted, Invasor is a nice horse and Sun King has really improved, but not even to hit the board in a race you have been targeting for months and months? Wow.

Same thing with Surf Cat, Tim. I don't give a rats ass if he has all his wins in Cali. as long as he keeps racking up the wins and the $$$

Big difference Kev. You know I love Surf Cat and his talent. But he needs to get on the racetrack, any racetrack and win a significant race. To date, I dont think hes won more than one significant race. Hope to see that soon.
As for Lava Man, another weekend, another old warrior to root for. Sunday he is expected to add another grade 1 to his resume and I believe he will do it in dramatic fashion. Its one thing for Giacomo to get past Preachinatthebar, but quite another for him to go by (up to this point) the horse of the year.

Im sorry he is out too....I think SC would give Lava Man everything he wanted and then some.

Kev- Did you see my PM to you? WHat do you think his odds will be?

SC aint doing bad...he has won:

Mervyn Leroy
Potrero Grande
San Carlos
Swaps


I know it ain't much, but he can only go where Headley sends him. I hate that he is hurt, I think he could have had a very big summer/fall this year starting with a win in the Pac Classic. I know you like him alot too. I just love to watch that burst of speed when he turns it on.

the one from yesterday about SJ? Let me look it over..

Makes one wonder with all the success of his 2 year olds... they dont show up in the winners circle on the ""first saturday of may""..

Tim...there isn't a horse in that race that would scare me. I like to see that Bejerano sticks with him, but the outside posts is the only thing that concerns me. He looks to me to have enough early speed to clear them all and he may just do that and not look back. 4-1 ML....I think you will be lucky to get 2-1 on him. I just don't see much else in the race putting pressure on him early.

IMO...A non-wagering race unless you get 4-1 and that just will not happen.

I agree 100% Kev. Not the kind of horse I want at anything under 4/1 and if he doesnt make the lead, he has zero shot. No thanks for me. I'll wait until Friday.

Not buying the optimism...I think this horse is done....hate to be synical, but you can't look at that race ad think of it as a positive race for a horse of his stature....he folded like a cheap suit ad he was supposed to be the incumbant handicap division leader.....if he didn't have a better excuse than that like something that physically went wrong, then I would say that the horse is not close to the same animal as a year ago...

I'm with you, because even if Lava Man doesn't win, he literally runs his heart out trying, like last years Pacific Classic, that race more than any of his others showed me how much heart and class Lava Man has, he got a ridiculously bad ride running into an insane pace and he still desperately tried to the effect of his own health, he was literally exhausted and almost collapsed, give me that horse over Flower Alley any day of the week.

I'm just giving my opinion. I have no stake in this. I have no connection to Invasor or FA. Invasor is obviously a good horse. He's one of the top few best horses on the East coast right now. But some years the horses are stronger than other years. On the East coast this year, I don't think the older horses compare to the older horses on the East coast in 2004 or 2005.

By the way, I think that Discreet Cat beat Invasor by about 7 lengths or something like that.

With regards to the Barbaro/Sharp Humor comparison, I think that Barbaro ran about 5-6 lengths better in the Derby than in his win over Sharp Humor. I think Invasor ran his race against SK.

To address what Danzig was saying, I'm not saying that FA is better than Invasor right now. I'm saying that when FA is at his best he is much better than Invasor.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

There are several horses out there right now that I think would beat Invasor by open lengths on their best day. I think that on his best day Bernardini would beat Invasor by 3-4 lengths. I think that LAva Man and surf cat would both easily handle Invasor on their best day. I think that Buzzard's Bay would esily handle Invasor on his best day. I will be extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic.

I agree with all this. I think Sun King should have been able to get by Invasor yet he didnt. Neither strike me as a major player in the Classic, especially if Bernardini runs in it.

On a horse's "best day", a lot of things can happen. Some horses do not need their best day to run at the very top level. Invasor has answered each call so far. So has Bernardini, for that matter. FA has thrown in clunkers that have to be explained with whatever excuse seems most logical. Same thing with Buzzard's Bay. I would take Invasor against FA or Buzzard's Bay in a matchup at +100 if given the chance. For that matter, I'm not sure we've seen Invasor's best day yet.

If you will be "extremely surprised if Invasor wins the BC Classic", then who do you think is a more likely winner? I can only think of Bernardini and Lava Man. If you think any other horse is more likely, then we can make a "friendly" bet on the race. It can either be a matchup (whichever horse finishes in front of the other) or we could say that one of the horses must win. You pick a horse other than LM or Bernardini, and I'll accept it. (um...before the Pacific Classic, of course.) Maybe leave out David Junior, too--I'm thinking US-based horses ;>)

--Dunbar

Rupert, I do agree that this year's group of older horses appears to be weaker than the past couple of years. I'm not touting Invasor as an heir to GZ or Saint Liam or RIM. But I think he is very near the top of what we've seen this year.

--Dunbar

Didn't Surf Cat run in the 2005 Big 'Cap?