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-   -   Most Likely BC Winner/Single (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32587)

tiznowthegreat 11-03-2009 07:05 PM

Most Likely BC Winner/Single
 
Who over the two days do you think are the top 3 most likely winners regardless of odds or would be the horse you would most likely single?

Mine:
1. Mastercraftsmen - outclasses an extemely mediocre field
2. Ventura - in very good form and showed that she likes the surface before
3. Conduit - 4 for 4 on courses with left handed turns and obviously likes SA and hooks another weak field outside of stablemate

Would be very interested to hear from others.

RockHardTen1985 11-03-2009 07:06 PM

Mine....

Zensational
Zenyatta

randallscott35 11-03-2009 07:10 PM

Ventura.

VOL JACK 11-03-2009 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985


Mine....

Zensational
Zenyatta

Damn it...I had already tossed both of those.

randallscott35 11-03-2009 07:17 PM

I think Zenyatta will run well but I can't fathom her being the most likely single on this card with that field in the gate.

randallscott35 11-03-2009 07:19 PM

Gun to my head after Ventura....Music Note.

mclem0822 11-03-2009 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Ventura.

To me the work was sensational, of the repeat candidates he seems most likely IMO.

Seattleallstar 11-03-2009 08:11 PM

Even with post 1, Zenzational is still a freak, will run them into the ground and still pull away in the stretch.

Scav 11-03-2009 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar
Even with post 1, Zenzational is still a freak, will run them into the ground and still pull away in the stretch.

YES!!!

Two of the all time greatest mush's in internet history. I am loving life right now

Linny 11-03-2009 08:32 PM

Gayego

Lava 11-03-2009 08:49 PM

Noble Court

Hickory Hill Hoff 11-03-2009 09:02 PM

Spanish Moon & Ventura

Oaklawnfan 11-03-2009 09:03 PM

Looking at Lucky. I believe to be the real deal.:$:

Thunder Gulch 11-03-2009 09:16 PM

Ventura....

Would have said Goldlikova, but she drew outside and that field is loaded.

-BT- 11-04-2009 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
Ventura....

Would have said Goldlikova, but she drew outside and that field is loaded.


don't even need to glance at the post draw............CONDUIT


after reading post #2 i feel even more comfortable than ever tossing Zenyatta and Zensational

-bt-

johnny pinwheel 11-04-2009 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Gun to my head after Ventura....Music Note.

i agree with both of those. ventura entered where shes going to be very, very tough. music note looks like a monster off her last two and ran well last year, she looks better this year. i can't possibly single zenyatta, first time boys, first time distance, crummy price. that alone cries for me to use "others".

King Glorious 11-04-2009 10:34 AM

1. Zenyatta
2. Ventura
3. Rip Van Winkle

NTamm1215 11-04-2009 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
1. Zenyatta
2. Ventura
3. Rip Van Winkle

So you might single one or the other between Rip and Zenyatta but prefer Zenyatta?

NT

King Glorious 11-04-2009 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
So you might single one or the other between Rip and Zenyatta but prefer Zenyatta?

NT

I think Zenyatta is much more likely to win. But it's racing and anything can happen and I think if for some reason, she doesn't get it done, I think if Rip takes to the track, he's more likely to win that race than any other horse I can think of in another race besides Ventura. Zenyatta is my choice to win though.

knickslions2 11-04-2009 11:39 AM

Love Bridgetown

Cannon Shell 11-04-2009 11:57 AM

Get Funky

Fulla Sheets 11-04-2009 12:02 PM

Connie and Michael

miraja2 11-04-2009 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
1. Zenyatta
2. Ventura

How you think Zenyatta is a more likely winner than Ventura I will never know.

Clip-Clop 11-04-2009 12:29 PM

Lethal Heat.

Capt. Candyman Can

letswastemoney 11-04-2009 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop
Lethal Heat.

Capt. Candyman Can

is this a joke

Clip-Clop 11-04-2009 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
is this a joke

Not at all. More likely than any of the Zenyattas up there. :)

Gander 11-04-2009 01:11 PM

Cannonball.

Travis Stone 11-04-2009 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop
Lethal Heat.

Capt. Candyman Can

Love those who pick separators as their single.

munster705 11-04-2009 01:41 PM

I like the following

Conduit
Zensational
California Flag

NTamm1215 11-04-2009 01:56 PM

I don't really see Conduit being beaten by anyone but Presious Passion.

NT

Antitrust32 11-04-2009 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I don't really see Conduit being beaten by anyone but Presious Passion.

NT


thats funny I was just thinking the exact same thing.

King Glorious 11-04-2009 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
How you think Zenyatta is a more likely winner than Ventura I will never know.

Ventura did lose a race to one of her top competitors in this race didn't she?

Clip-Clop 11-04-2009 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Love those who pick separators as their single.

Not sure I understand "separators".

fantini33 11-04-2009 02:52 PM

Precious Passion is the TYPE of horse to single in multirace sequences, and I will. The 4/5 shots that will bring back $97.50 pick 3's because they are on every ticket are the ones to avoid. If they beat me, keep the change, I'll grab that cheap pick 3 at Ozone Park some random Thursday in December!

With Precious Passion you'll be getting a clean trip from an oxymoron of a horse. That is, a multi-dimensional, one dimension horse. You'll clearly be on the lead with the 3rd or 4th betting choice. A wire-wire job obviously a possibility, but as we have seen, that other dimension, the coming back when passed dimension. If someone goes on by and hangs he'll fight back and regain control.

Add to this what will certainly be a confusing pace scenario for the Euros, and this could be the KEY HORSE in multirace wagers, as it doesn't really matter the win odds, but more the # of choice within the race (3rd or 4th).

With the other races around this one being extremely contentious, going wide in them almost seems a certainty.

I will be leaning heavily on Precious Passion in Pick 3's and 4's.

Good Luck!

Gander 11-04-2009 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Ventura did lose a race to one of her top competitors in this race didn't she?

Thats only because Ventura has run against top fields her whole career. She hasnt been ducking anybody. Look at those horses shes beaten and barely lost to. Gio Ponti beat her by a hair. If she ran against the crap Zenyatta has, she'd be undefeated too.

Hows the jump shot?

King Glorious 11-04-2009 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Thats only because Ventura has run against top fields her whole career. She hasnt been ducking anybody. Look at those horses shes beaten and barely lost to. Gio Ponti beat her by a hair. If she ran against the crap Zenyatta has, she'd be undefeated too.

Hows the jump shot?

I'm not saying Ventura is not a single. I think she is. I didn't even mention how Zenyatta has never lost. But she's still facing a horse that's beaten her so that factors into my feelings.

miraja2 11-04-2009 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Ventura did lose a race to one of her top competitors in this race didn't she?

Yes, but she is also the most likely winner of the race she is entered in.
Zenyatta strikes me as about a 10/1 - 15/1 shot here. I doubt if she hits the board.

King Glorious 11-04-2009 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Yes, but she is also the most likely winner of the race she is entered in.
Zenyatta strikes me as about a 10/1 - 15/1 shot here. I doubt if she hits the board.

That's the great thing about racing. I think Zenyatta has no trouble here and if I were betting, anything over 2/1, I'd be thrilled with. We'll find out this weekend.

Gander 11-04-2009 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
That's the great thing about racing. I think Zenyatta has no trouble here and if I were betting, anything over 2/1, I'd be thrilled with. We'll find out this weekend.

I think you'll get every bit of 2/1 and then some. Maybe 7/2. You should be mixing some jump shot practice in with your handicapping. Dont let something that rare go.

King Glorious 11-04-2009 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
I think you'll get every bit of 2/1 and then some. Maybe 7/2. You should be mixing some jump shot practice in with your handicapping. Dont let something that rare go.

It won't matter if she's 3/5 or 35/1. I've vowed to never bet another dime on a synthetic track race again. I just don't see her losing and I only see one other horse that can possibly win and he's 50/50 to not like the track and has these foot issues.

The jumper is in mothballs.


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