Pletchers Demise
 

Pletcher is the most successful trainer in the game today. But every trainer always comes down from the top. Pletcher is still young and has many more years of training to go. But what will be the reason for his demise? Lukas was the best there was in the 80's and 90's and we see where he is at today. So, what do you think will be the cause of Pletcher's fall? Like Lukas, I think once is assistants go on their own then he will hurt a little. I also think that perhaps burn out will play a role as well. What do you guys and gals think.

was just thinking it wasn't more than a few years ago Frankel was dominating every stakes race in America and breaking records, coming close to Lukas's win record for a year...since he's tapered off a bit...I think Pletcher will dominate for awhile, definately the rest of this decade, then who knows, maybe I'll take out my trainer's license and it will all be over, no wait I can't wake up at 4 am, it's unnatural~training is a tough life, Todd's married, I guess he'll make his money, win all the big races, then take it easy

You guys are delusional. Todds assitants are products of Todds. He taught them how to do what they do and do it the way he wants it. If you think they have a lot of rope to run with, you are sadly mistaken. Weaver was Todd's assistant and went on his own and Todd never missed a beat. there was a slight learning curve time for Seth benzel but he picked it up fast and rivals any assitant trainer in the land. Make no mistakes about it, Todd is running that show. Hes still so yound and still learning himself from his own mistakes. he will be the leading trainer as long as he trains. Hes more brilliant and talented than you realize.

So you are saying that he will dominate as long as he keeps training? That is a pretty bold statement to make.

Truly and odd topic in my opinion. I guess when you're on top people like to see you fall.

Doesn't surprise me I don't get it...I'm not mensa material which has been previously called out....lol

I dont want him to fall at all. I am just curious to see what people think will be his demise.

he's earned $17 mill this year, the next closest trainer is Scott Blasi, err, Steve Asmussen (with $7 mill)...all I was trying to say was he can make as much money as he wants in this sport, and basically his "demise" will be when he wants to stop doing this full-throttle, whenever that time may be

See this is how I feel too. I think burn out is what is going to get Todd. Lukas got crushed when his assistance left, Baffert had a slight decline once he got married. I think Pletcher is prob the best trainer in the history of the game. I think he will be his own demise.

Best trainer in the history of the game? Come on...do you think you might be getting a little carried away?

No trainer has gotten the stock over the last couple of years that Pletcher has. Its not even close.

Pletcher is a good trainer and his horses look great. He runs a first class operation. I would have a hard time saying that a trainer is "the best in the history of the game" when he hasnt won a classic.

He has won more races without Johnny V than with him I think their on a skid together:cool:

First of all, I think Lukas was really only on top for less than 10 years. Off the top of my head, he did great from about 1984-1992 or so. He is really the exception to the rule. Training is not like sports where guys have a great career that lasts for 10-15 years. Guys will often train for practically their whole lives. Guys like Frankel and Mandella have been doing great for over 25 years. You have guys like Whittingham and Stephens that were on top for over 40 years. Training is something that guys can do for a really long time.

There are some people that suspect that Pletcher may be cheating in some way. I have no idea whether he is or not. Assuming that he is not, I think that he will be around for a very long time. On the other hand, if he is cheating then his great run could end at any time. Actually, even if he does have some type of unfair edge and that edge ended tomorrow, he would probably still be near the top of the standings for a few more years because he's getting such good horses. That's kind of what happened to Lukas. I think Lukas only had his really big edge in terms of pharmacology up until about 1990 but he was getting such good horses that he stayed pretty hot for another 2-3 years before he started to really cool off. If you have enough success at one time, that can carry you for a really long time. As poorly as Lukas does these days, he still gets really good horses because people remember how well he used to do.

Thanks Rupert, a very fine post.

Agreed Rupert

Burnout is inevitable for trainers handling huge stables and putting in the hours demanded by competing at that level. Pletcher is still young and achieved his success at an age before most of the others. Considering his record in the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup, I think there is still a lot of desire in him to keep going at the current pace, but it is just about impossible to maintain for the long haul.

Todd looks pretty old for his age. Maybe all this is wearing on him. Unless like the guy who won American Idol, he is lying about his age. That dude Taylor Hicks claims hes like 30. Ya right. If hes 30, I am 18. Todd looks like hes about 45-47.

I think that Todd is about 38.

It's all about the horse's owners people. It only matters how good you are when you don't have the Tabors, Lewis's, Overbrook Farms, Mlyenk and many other high spenders. If you have endless high dollar horse flesh then you have a gold mine of winners.

I dont see how some of these guys can run such large stables so competitively. You have to have a lot of good people under you and eventually they are gonna break out on their own. I am partial to trainers with small powerful stables. I think this is the way to go, if I was an owner anyways. How Pletcher manages so many horses at a top level is a CEO feat. ANd not some lazy azz CEO. Pletcher has to be a good judge of other's character and work ethic. You have to be able to delegate with a stable this large. Assmussen is a guy who has taken quantity over quality. Too large, bad service. I should not have said this as I do not have a horse with Assmussen. Im sorry. But Ill keep it up anyway.

With Pletchers success, where does he fit in with his big money owners as far as picking out there purchases? I dont have any figures to back me up but arent most of his horses howmgrown or weanling or 2yr old purchases?

Pletcher has a good mix of both. He has plenty of home-breads but he also has clients who spend top dollars at both yearling and two year old sales.

While I can't knock his success rate, I have a hard time canonized Todd Pletcher.

I mean, do you really buy his explanation/excuse over three of his runners DYING in a brief period shortly after far improved lifetime best off-the-chart #s? That "patch of grass" explanation took a lot of balls, but when you have Pletcher's high-powered and high-profile list of owners(who also pretty much control the racing organizations), I guess you can get by with pretty much anything.

Remember--Pletcher still has a very weakly appealed drug suspension currently over his head. I'm sure he will serve it from Dec.-Feb., when the racing world is in it's annual lull.

No defense for Asmussen, who will be publicly executed in print(Sunday), but why him alone, while Pletcher,Frankel and Dutrow run free?

The fact that Dutrow and Pletcher ran 1-2 in the BC Classic last year should tell you all you need to know about what a trainer must do to get to the top of the heap.

JMO

This thread is ridiculous to say the least. Any thread entitled Pletcher's demise when he has won over 17 million so far this year, and is over ten million ahead of the next guy is comical.

Asmussen is going to be publicy executed in print? Wow. Funny thing is that the beat goes on for his stable in his absence. Blasi won the the feature race at the Spa yesterday and has had a very good meet up here.

The thread isnt intended to find fault with Pletcher. It was basically to talk about what may cause he decline among the trainer standings. It happens to all trainers. It wont happen for perhaps 30 years but it will happen. I think the consensus is burn out.

If you took time to watch the race, you would notice CHACE CITY took it to this field from pillar to post. He was clearly the best horse, and has been in all of his races.

As for Asmussen, we will see.
Tell me, Oracle80--what caused those Pletcher runners to die in such a short time period, just after all of them upped their highest speed #s by double digits? I don't believe there ever was a real explanation.
Coincidence or bad luck, I'm sure.

Wasn't all of this about the same time LEFT BANK turned from a nice sprinter to a top handicap distance runner?

What ever happened to LEFT BANK?

[quote=jackofhearts]If you took time to watch the race, you would notice CHACE CITY took it to this field from pillar to post. He was clearly the best horse, and has been in all of his races.

As for Asmussen, we will see.
Tell me, Oracle80--what caused those Pletcher runners to die in such a short time period, just after all of them upped their highest speed #s by double digits? I don't believe there ever was a real explanation.
Coincidence or bad luck, I'm sure.

Tell me Jackofhearts, of what first hand info do you have about the circumstnaces surrounding these deaths? Do you have the full scoop and story? Or are you just another piece if trash on the internet who knows everything there is to know.

Tell me Jackofhearts, of what first hand info do you have about the circumstnaces surrounding these deaths? Do you have the full scoop and story? Or are you just another piece if trash on the internet who knows everything there is to know.[/quote]
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I have no first hand knowledge about these mysterious deaths. As far as I can tell, THERE IS NO FIRST HAND KNOWLEDGE or credible explanation for these quick deaths that ALL occured in ONE barn, just after ALL 3 runners had accomplished amazing improvements in form. Pletcher's theory was of a "patch of grass" where these horses might have all grazed, but there never was any substantiation that such "patch of grass" existed. Since things like this are unfashionable and just can't happen at Saratoga, plus the high profile trainer and owners involved, the incident was glossed over. Can you imagine today if these were Asmussen runners?

So--when do you think Mr.Pletcher will serve his suspension?
The evidence supporting the finding has been determined to be factual, while the appeal is only based on sketchy hypotheticals.

And no, sir(?), I don't consider myself an internet "piece of trash" for raising these issues, and take offense at your insulting comments. I have been around this business/game since the early 70's as a gambler, owner, breeder and seller. I have owned graded stakes runners, and bought/sold at Barrett's 2yo and the Keeneland sales.

Are you a typical turf writer, syndicator or horse peddler who's motto is to treat the fan and owner like mushrooms, keeping them in the dark and feeding them "fertilizer"?

Maybe YOU can explain the old Saratoga Pletcher mass murder, or link me to the official NYRA vet determination?

I dont know the story of these horses dying. Can someone share the story with me.

Me too, what is the story on this?

Is it the same stuff that happened to Baffert last year when I believe a poster on the other board described it as "they were dragging another one out of its stall in Baffert's barn this morning (Diamond Omi)?"

I as well would love to read more about this situation. Links would be great if anyone has em' handy.

Happened about 3-4 years ago, three of his horses died after big efforts within a couple of days of each other, all from some unknown reason. I believe Left Bank died of Colic. Left Bank had just won the Whitney. I believe the other two were fillies, one had just one a Stakes Race. Seems alot of people are curious about their deaths, because they just ran huge efforts and Pletcher is considered to be a "high percentage" or "move up trainer". I don't know for sure if there was something given to them, to encourage those "move up" performances, so I have no opinion on that, but I sure wouldn't go running someone's name through the mud, without proof.

Thanks Point. I remember Left Bank and I actually liked that horse. Forgot about him until now. Wasnt he owned by Tabor and Smith?

Yes, he was owned by Tabor. He was a good sprinter and then won the Whitney in impressive fashion...

EPO is known to weaken the immune system severley so that a horse can die even from a minor illness. I don't think any thoroughbred trainers in the USA have been caught using EPO, but it is pretty obvious that guys are using it. It is very hard to test for it. They are currently developing tests to detect antibodies for it. I heard that with a brand new test that was just developed, they caught a guy in Canada and he got a $100,000 fine and a 10 year suspension.

I'm not saying that Pletcher uses erythropoietin. Some people may suspect him of using it but that doesn't prove anything.

Thank you, pointg5 and rupert, for your input.
I was up on the incident when it happened, but so much has gone on since then.

Actually, a very nice 2yo stakes filly was one of the victims, a highly regarded 3yo sprinter(who had just run out of his skin in a toga allowance race) was another, and there MIGHT have been one more. During this time, LEFT BANK emerged from being a very tough short/mid-distance sprinter type to being untouchable in graded stakes at any distance. LEFT BANK did colic, and might have had prior trouble, which became seriously aggravated.

As for EPO, I didn't mention it.
Obviously some here know about it's use and after-effects.
Many subscribe to the possibility that these runners were all given something which un-intentionally(of course--no one thought differently) led to their quick demise.

I always thought possibly Baffert was one of the first to use it, and the Pletcher situation was almost textbook.
But--nothing was proven through testing(which also leads to the possible conclusion), and no other explanation was ever given other than the ridiculous "patch of grass" theory.

Draw your own conclusion.

The fact that this Oracle fellow had to quickly turn to cheap name-calling makes me wonder what he is all about. Pretty weak rebuttal, imo.

Jackofhearts--you need to post more often. I actually like reasing them.

Sorry about my timing, Mr.Oracle.
I said the Asmussen article would break Sunday, but it came out last night.

Any comment, other than name-calling?

Hadn't Left Bank suffered from colic previous to that episode? I seem to recall that the horse had serious problems previously but I could be mistaken. Regarding this incident, I recall a bit about it but hadn't heard the "patch of grass" part. I continue to maintain that the ONLY way to get past all this stuff is to require every trainer to provide racing officials with every medication every horse is given, then, any positive for any other substance would be big trouble! Hopefully someday, the technology would allow a pre-race test that would sort out any positives and require the horse to be scratched thus eliminating the incentive to cheat! There are honest mistakes...a stable hand administering the wrong med or dosage etc, and investigation would have to eliminate outside tampering but any trainer found guilty after due process should be banned for life...period!! Then, we'd see less of this! I have no opinion on Mr Pletcher or this situation as I have no real knowledge of the details!

I'm not blind to the fact that Horse racing has a drug problem but it seems like whenever anyone experiences success in this business the endless speculation begins. Pletcher has his choice of the best horse stock in the world year after year. His horses obviously get fed the best, trained the best and live under the best conditions. Why not give the guy his due instead of implying he's a cheater? To me, he's a great trainer. Until there's concrete evidence to suggest otherwise that's the only conclusion you can come to. Too many people subscribe to "The Magic Needle Theory" whenever a trainer has a good amount of success.