Hall of Fame? Yes or No
 

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro

Vlad Guerrero

Jim Thome

John Smoltz

Johnny Damon

Trevor Hoffman

Todd Helton

Chipper Jones

Bobby Abreu

Gary Sheffield

Miguel Tejada

Andy Pettite

my take above...

Helton yes but Vlad no?

Smoltz would have to be a definite.

I'm in the yes camp for Smoltz too.

What about the rest?

I think 500 Hr's gets you in.

So you take nothing else into consideration?

How many of these guys did roids?

Quite a few. Helton was on the 2003 list.

No, but I really don't think of a guy like Gary Sheffield as a Hall of Famer, but I think that's the number that will eventually get him in.

^^^

I don't watch any baseball hardly ever - but wasn't Guerrero like a freak in Montreal?

Injuries ruined his chances. He didn't hit much at all in the 2005 post. So, fk him. No real effort to get a ring, either. Too ugly for photos, too. No plate discipline (which would easily of gotten one of his teams a ring.)

He still has time. Cant blame me for hoping. Stranger things have happened.

Jones ever been caught enhancing?

Ichiro the only one on there I would vote for.

Ichiro Yes

Vlad Guerrero Yes

Jim Thome Yes

John Smoltz No

Johnny Damon No

Trevor Hoffman Yes

Todd Helton No (I think he SHOULD get in)

Chipper Jones Yes

Bobby Abreu No

Gary Sheffield Yes (eventually)

Miguel Tejada No

Andy Pettite No

Thome should and will make it. A shame he had no ring, but with those numbers, longevity, no 'roids and his great character..he'll be there

How can you not vote for Chipper Jones, besides the fact you love the Mets (and so does Chipper)?

Him along with Ichiro are locks to me. First ballots.

I dont think so, just excessive chewing tobacco use which is almost as common as steroids but not quite.

Seriously? I don't think Chipper is a HOF. No Met issue at all.

Guerrero and Helton have better numbers than quite a few current hall of famers.

Guererro should be a cinch. He was one of the top 5 all around players for the majority of his career, mostly playing in parks that dont favor hitters. He had the best arm in baseball outside of Ichiro before he got hurt though he was never a great outfielder.

Like Guerrero, Helton has numbers and has been injury plagued but played in Coors which means he should be held to a higher standard.

Ichiro is a lock as is Chipper Jones.
Hoffman is deserving and likely.
IMO Smoltz should be in easy.
Damon is a no as is Pettite (not because they are Yankees either)
Abreu probably wont do enough

Thome and Sheffield are the toughest for me.

Sheffield played 21 seasons and ran up some nice career numbers but is still 300 hits shy of 3000. Out of 21 years he had 8 really good seasons, so he actually had more subpar seasons than really good ones. And this is during the juice era where numbers are generally inflated 20% or so. He was a terrible fielder at a bunch of positions and has been linked to steroids which makes his top seasons at later ages suspicious. I'd say no to him.

Thome is similar in that he has played a long time and was limited in most areas except for power hitting. Despite being known for HR's he only led the league 1 time. He made 5 all star teams which is less than most HoF'ers. He was in the top 5 MVP voting 1 time. He never won any awards. He did lead the league in k's 3 times. He only has 2100 hits despite the length of his career. He is ranked 23rd all time in slugging % and is 48th in OBP though both are positively effected by the era he played in. He is 10th lifetime in walks but that is countered by being 2nd all time in strikeouts. His numbers are very similar to harmon Killebrew but he played during the modern deadball era. I would be surprised if he gets in but I dont know if I would vote for him.

Ichiro and Guerrero are the only two I'd vote in.

One reason why it's hard to judge by number of times they won an MVP or finished high in the voting is 1999.

Jones
45-110 .319 avg, .441 obp, .633 slg, 359 total bases, 41 doubles, 116 runs, 181 hits

Guerrero
42-131 .316 avg, .378 obp, .600 slg, 366 total bases, 37 doubles, 102 runs, 193 hits

Jones won the MVP. Guerrero finished 11th.

What hasnt he done that would keep him out? His numbers are big and his consistency and longevity amazing. He doesnt have the Cal Ripken streak but he hasnt missed much time. He hits for power and avearge and has hardly had any really off years. His fielding is excellent.

Tim, I think he compiles numbers, I've never felt he was a top 5 player in the league over a period of time....I think the HOF should be special.

I once heard someone say, that if you really have to think about the player then no should probably be the answer.

Besides he Coors field thing, I just feel like Helton has flown below the radar for much of his career. It seemed like he never got the recognition he deserved and when it comes time for the Hall I think all that lack of press/spotlight might end up hurting him.

For Vlad, although he has had some great season. I just don't think he ever reached that level that everyone thought he was destined for. I know thats unfair, but unfortunately it might come into play come voting time.

Sheff is a guy that's on the fence and from what I remember he wasn't the most popular guy with the media either. That and the allegations might hurt him, but I do think he will eventually end up in.

You make valid points about Thome. He did also play in hitter's parks, but I really think his HR's will carry him in.

I would definetely give a NO to Sheffield. If he gets in, it opens the door to a lot of others who are kind of marginal - borderline guys (to even be considered).

Interesting that for you, Jones is a lock while Thome and Sheffield are questionable. I looked at their career 162g averages and they are all very similar:

Jones 32-108, .307 avg, .406 obp, 11 sb, 109 runs
Sheff 32-105, .292 avg, .393 obp, 16 sb, 103 runs
Thome 40-111, .277 avg, .404 obp, 1 sb, 105 runs

Here's where I come out on it. When I have to debate their numbers or compare their cases against other players, that's a no for me. To me, a hall of famer is one that I say yes to without having to look at the numbers to make their case or say "well, since so and so's in, he should be in too." Guerrero was one of the most feared hitters in the game for a number of years and we remember that without looking up any numbers. Ichiro is one of the best hitters in the history of the game. No need to look up any numbers to remind you of that.

Guerrero would need to do something huge in the post to counterweight that 2005 post season he had (horrible.) Totally let his team down. He has slightly more intellect than a cow. I don't think he'll make it.

Sometimes you say some intersting things but sometimes you are so far off base its like you just came back from the methadone clinic.

No effort to get a ring? No plate discipline? Over Guerrero's career he averaged 76 K's a year (which is a very small amount for a power hitter) in an average of 685 plate appearances. He also averaged 197 hits over that same time.

His lifetime batting average is .321. His .568 slg % is 14th all-time. He has 7 silver slugger awards (other OF with 7 or more, Bonds, Ramirez, Gwynn, and Griffey). He has an MVP award and 4 other top 6 finishes. He is 5th alltime in intentional walks, leading the league 5 times. He has 407 HR's. He has 2250 hits. He has led the league in hits, runs and total bases.

All this in 13 seasons.

Baseball reference has a breakdown of stats called a similarity score adjusted by year, era, etc. Guerrero's most similar hitters by year? Willie Mays, Manny Ramirez and Duke Snider.

Yeah I think the results of three games in 2005 should trump that.

I listed the players IMO from most likely to least likely with a line in between HOFers and non-HOFers.

Ichiro
Vlad Guerrero
John Smoltz
Trevor Hoffman
-----------------
Todd Helton
Jim Thome
Chipper Jones
Bobby Abreu
Gary Sheffield
Johnny Damon
Miguel Tejada
Andy Pettite

Your opinion, not who you think will make it. Guess i should have made it clear.

What list?

The 103 people of which the government got. He is rumored to be on there, been coming out in drips and drabs.

We assume. While I generally agree, FWIW, the fact is that the era that he played in was a perfect fit for him. Any other era and there is no way he plays that long or has those numbers. Despite the fact that he seems like a great guy and all that it is hard not to wonder about one dimensional power guys like Thome. Virtually every one of his peers with similar numbers have been tainted.

He also played on a lot of very good teams surrounded by good hitters....very hard to pitch around him.

If Guerrero played for the Braves he would have won three or 4 MVP's

The problem with that is that the standard has been set by the prior induction of players.

Guerrero is iffy.

No offense, but have you read through this thread?