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-   -   Are you ready for SA Showvivor? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32028)

letswastemoney 09-30-2009 11:43 PM

Are you ready for SA Showvivor?
 
Starts Saturday Oct. 3!! $$$$$$$$$

jwkniska 10-01-2009 10:31 AM

I'm in!

mclem0822 10-02-2009 05:14 PM

I signed up yesterday, hope to last longer than last year.

Arletta 10-02-2009 07:36 PM

I'm in too.

Best of luck to all playing :)

jwkniska 10-02-2009 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822
hope to last longer than last year.

that makes 2 of us. i got ko'd the first day last time.

letswastemoney 10-03-2009 01:58 PM

I chose Lethal Heat in the Cal Cup Classic

mclem0822 10-03-2009 02:56 PM

Didn't get the pick in!
 
Why can't they make it so if you miss the start of the card, you just can't get a pick in for the races you've missed? But you can still get a contest pick in for a remaining race, am I crazy here there's got to be a way to do that? Guess I'm out!:mad:

Arletta 10-03-2009 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822
Why can't they make it so if you miss the start of the card, you just can't get a pick in for the races you've missed? But you can still get a contest pick in for a remaining race, am I crazy here there's got to be a way to do that? Guess I'm out!:mad:

Don't feel bad Michael... I bombed out too.. I thought I was playing it "safe" by picking Grazen in the 6th... He broke down :(

I'm still alive in the Meadowlands tho (barely) :rolleyes:

jwkniska 10-03-2009 06:48 PM

I got lucky with a 3rd today. get to pick at least one more.

letswastemoney 10-03-2009 08:28 PM

Day 2...I choose Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk!

letswastemoney 10-06-2009 02:23 PM

For Wednesday I chose Miss Dixie Dancer, Race 5

letswastemoney 10-07-2009 05:32 PM

She finished 4th!! Woo hoo!!! I'm done lol

Arletta 10-07-2009 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
She finished 4th!! Woo hoo!!! I'm done lol

you've done enough :D

jwkniska 10-07-2009 07:53 PM

I got booted today too.

Dunbar 10-08-2009 10:02 AM

I'm still in. Got knocked out earlier than this the only other time I entered.

Looking at the 1st and 3rd races today.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-08-2009 12:50 PM

Went with Miss Heather Lee in the 3rd. Do I really want a 2-yr-old 3rd-time-starter that hasn't run in over 2 months?!

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-09-2009 04:49 PM

633 players left out of initial 3713. I already have $8 of tournament equity!

I have Raiding Party in the 5th today.

--Dunbar

PeteMugg 10-09-2009 05:07 PM

Hangin around in this one, also. Had the winner in the first today. Six hundred left, this is about when I run fourth. Maybe I'll get over that hump this time.

Dunbar 10-09-2009 07:32 PM

I made it past today, too, Pete.

I'll be choosing from these 3 tomorrow:

1. Indian Firewater
4. Magical Fantasy
8. Zenyatta

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-10-2009 02:34 PM

I went with Indian Firewater in the 1st. Otherwise I couldn't stand the suspense. ;>)

--Dunbar

PeteMugg 10-10-2009 09:11 PM

Took Zenyatta. Would have felt foolish had I not chose her and missed the board.

Dunbar 10-11-2009 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
I made it past today, too, Pete.

I'll be choosing from these 3 tomorrow:

1. Indian Firewater
4. Magical Fantasy
8. Zenyatta

Despite the fact that all 3 of those horses finished 2nd or better, 73 people were eliminated yesterday leaving just 477 of the original 3713. Here are the leading picks from yesterday, according to the website:

266 people selected #05 Zenyatta in race 8

83 people selected #02 Indian Firewater in race 1

43 people selected #01 Magical Fantasy in race 4

21 people selected #06 New Bay in race 3

18 people selected #10 Excellent News in race 5

15 people selected #01 Noblety in race 3

11 people selected #03 Privilaged in race 1

6 people selected #09 Cowboy Cal in race 6

5 people selected #04 Black Mamba in race 4

3 people selected #10 Whatsthescript in race 6

2 people selected #07 Get My Fix in race 10


I'm leaning toward Differentkindagreat in the 2nd today.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-11-2009 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
I'm leaning toward Differentkindagreat in the 2nd today.

Between that one and Ruffled Feathers in the 3rd.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-11-2009 02:24 PM

Stayed with Differentkindagreat for today's pick.

Dunbar 10-12-2009 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
Stayed with Differentkindagreat for today's pick.

Differentkindagreat won, but so did pretty much every fav yesterday. Yet amazingly enough, another 53 people dropped by the wayside leaving 424 players.

Lots of short fields today. I'm probably going with Talktoomuch in the first.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-12-2009 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
Lots of short fields today. I'm probably going with Talktoomuch in the first.

178 of us chose Talktoomuch. I watched the race and thought my contest was finished. Talktoomuch fell back into 4th place with the wire maybe 25 yards away--then the unbelievable happened. The horse running 2nd took a couple of awkward steps and lost the rider, allowing Talktoomuch to finish 3rd.

56 more people dropped out today. Now just 368 of the original 3713 are left. My tournament equity hits double figures: 3713/368 = $10.

--Dunbar

PeteMugg 10-12-2009 09:30 PM

true to form, I get below 500 and run fourth.

it's up to you, Dunbar, bring it home

Dunbar 10-13-2009 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
My tournament equity hits double figures: 3713/368 = $10.

Brain f**t. The equity is 5000/368 = $13.59

--Dunbar

PS--Sorry you're out, Pete!

Dunbar 10-14-2009 08:16 AM

Traveling all day today. Have to pick before seeing scratches.

Sam's Special in the 2nd. Go Mullins!

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-15-2009 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
Traveling all day today. Have to pick before seeing scratches.

Sam's Special in the 2nd. Go Mullins!

Still in. 40 more dropped out yesterday, leaving 328.

Tough day today. I like Cardiff Giant in the 8th, but there were 2 scratches from the 2nd, leaving just 5 horses--meaning I only need to beat 2 of them to stay alive.

I can see the 2 most likely to finish out of the money, but it wasn't at all obvious to me which of the other 3 is the safest bet. Went with Langfuhrious. Will probably regret deserting Cardiff Giant.

--Dunbar

mbahadur 10-15-2009 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
Tough day today. I like Cardiff Giant in the 8th, but there were 2 scratches from the 2nd, leaving just 5 horses--meaning I only need to beat 2 of them to stay alive.

I can see the 2 most likely to finish out of the money, but it wasn't at all obvious to me which of the other 3 is the safest bet. Went with Langfuhrious. Will probably regret deserting Cardiff Giant.

--Dunbar

I also originally had Cardiff Giant, but with him coming off short rest, I decided to switch to the 5-horse 2nd race with the 2 weak 12-1 shots. I selected Fog Alert out of the 3 who had the best chance to finish in the money, although the blinkers on, the layoff, and the slower works do concern me. I don't see much pace in this 2nd race.

Dunbar 10-16-2009 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur
I also originally had Cardiff Giant, but with him coming off short rest, I decided to switch to the 5-horse 2nd race with the 2 weak 12-1 shots. I selected Fog Alert out of the 3 who had the best chance to finish in the money, although the blinkers on, the layoff, and the slower works do concern me. I don't see much pace in this 2nd race.

We got another scratch in that race, leaving just 4 horses. There was no show betting, but our picks still counted.

We would have been okay with Cardiff Giant in the 8th, too--finished 1st.

39 people dropped out yesterday, leaving 289 of the original 3713. Equity per player has climbed to $17.

Today I'm leaning toward Raiding Party in the 3rd. But I have to leave for another road trip before I'll get to see the scratches.

--Dunbar

mbahadur 10-16-2009 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
We Today I'm leaning toward Raiding Party in the 3rd. But I have to leave for another road trip before I'll get to see the scratches

Nice call - Raiding Party finished second.

I took Silent Stalk who held on for 3rd by a head. It may be a while before I select another Showvivor horse from a race going down the hill. My other option for today would have been the Baffert horse that held on for 3rd by less than a length in the fourth race. Probably another day where alot of players will move on.

Dunbar 10-17-2009 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur
Nice call - Raiding Party finished second.

I'd forgotten that Raiding Party was also my horse one week earlier!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur
I took Silent Stalk who held on for 3rd by a head. It may be a while before I select another Showvivor horse from a race going down the hill. My other option for today would have been the Baffert horse that held on for 3rd by less than a length in the fourth race. Probably another day where alot of players will move on.

Right. Only 18 dropped by the wayside yesterday. The previous lowest number of dropouts was 39. There are 271 of us left.

If I'd started with a $100 bet and reinvested my winnings, after 11 days my bank would have grown to $366, plus $3 in roundoff change. (+$269)

I looked hard at today's 2nd race after a scratch reduced it to 5. But I couldn't settle on one runner that was that much better than any of the other 4. Tempted by Via Verde in the 4th, but 1st time on grass. Leaning toward Niger River in the 3rd.

--Dunbar

mbahadur 10-17-2009 02:46 PM

Went with Oliver in the 2nd race.

Dunbar 10-17-2009 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur
Went with Oliver in the 2nd race.

Oliver is the 2nd most popular pick today. (58 players chose Oliver). I usually have one of the 2 most popular picks, but today my pick isn't even in the top 10. At most 2 other players picked Niger River. Another horse from Race 3, Union Soldier, is the #1 pick today.

7 players are already eliminated after Race 1.

Good luck with Oliver!

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-17-2009 03:11 PM

Good work, mbahadur. Nice show payoff, too. Even though Oliver went off as the 9/5 fav, he had less than 1/3 the show money that the 2-1 2nd fav had. And he had just 2/3 the show money of the 5/2 3rd choice. $2.60 is pretty nice on the fav in a 5 horse race!

--Dunbar

Dunbar 10-18-2009 06:55 AM

A surprising 33 people dropped out yesterday, leaving 238 players. I'm listed as #236 because of my measely 2 winners in the 12 races. But the actual tiebreaker, if necessary, will depend on highest show prices.

My hypothetical $100 starting bankroll has climbed to $439 after 12 races.

There are several short fields today. My pre-scratch pick is the 2nd ML fav in the 5-horse 3rd: Star Redeemer.

--Dunbar

mbahadur 10-18-2009 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
There are several short fields today. My pre-scratch pick is the 2nd ML fav in the 5-horse 3rd: Star Redeemer.

Going the same route with Star Redeemer in the 3rd, which is now a 4 horse race due to a scratch.

gorvy 10-20-2009 12:32 PM

This is a true survivor contest, too bad I missed it. I miss the NYRA ones too, although that one usually comes down to tie breakers. In my opinion, they should start the survivor contests at the beginning of each meet so that there would be no need for ties unless someone lasts the ENTIRE meet without running out.


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