Rachel Alexandra's two-turn campaign
 

Here's how her Beyer's stack up against the fastest editions of the races she has run around two-turns.

I use Beyers because they are superior at comparisons like this. Sheet figures will have claimers from this era running way faster than Sunday Silence and Alysheba.

Obviously, a figure is only going to tell you how good a performance was without the aid of key circumstantial factors like pace, trip, etc etc.

* Golden Rod:

RA Beyer: 99

Best this decade besides RA: no Golden Rod winner has run better than Sara Louise's 91

Best since '92: Silverbulletday 104.

Result: RA beats any Golden Rod field this decade by the 4.75 lengths she beat Sara Louise by. Silverbulletday won the Golden Rod by 10 lengths - she beats RA by 3 lengths.


* Martha Washington:

RA Beyer: 100

Best this decade besides RA: Eight Belles 96

Best since '92 besides RA: Eight Belles 96

Result: RA beats Eight Belles by 2.5 lengths


* Fair Grounds Oaks:

RA Beyer: 103

Best this decade: Take Charge Lady 107

Best since '92: Take Charge Lady 107

Result: RA runs 2nd beaten 2.25 lengths to TCL.


* Fantasy:

RA Beyer: 101

Best this decade besides RA: Eight Belles 99

Best since '92: Blushing KD 110

Result: RA beats Eight Belles by a length. RA runs 2nd beaten 5.5 lengths to Blushing KD.

The year Blushing KD won the fantasy .. Ajina was 3rd beaten 14 lengths in a field of 5. Ajina later won that years BC Distaff and was voted champion 3yo filly. Blushing KD won the KY Oaks over a super field next out. She died after her Monmouth win.




* Kentucky Oaks:

RA Beyer: 108

Best this decade besides RA: Rags to Riches 104

Best since '92 besides RA: Silverbulletday 107

Result: RA beats Rags To Riches by 2 lengths. RA beats Silverbulletday by a half length


* Preakness Stakes:

RA Beyer: 108

Best this decade: Smarty Jones 118

Best since '92 besides RA: (Smarty Jones & Silver Charm 118)

Result: RA finishes 2nd beaten 6.75 lengths behind Smarty Jones - but comfortably ahead of Rock Hard Ten and Eddington.

RA finishes 5th by 6.75 lengths behind Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit, Free House, and Touch Gold .. while a few lengths ahead of Frisk Me Now and Concerto.


* Mother Goose:

RA Beyer: 111

Best this decade besides RA: Fleet Renee 105

Best since '92 besides RA: Lakeway 106

Result: RA beats Fleet Renee by 3.75 lengths and Lakeway by 3 lengths.


* Haskell:

RA Beyer: 116

Best this decade besides RA: Any Given Saturday 113

Best since '92 besides RA: Holy Bull 115

Result: RA beats AGS by 1.75 lengths. RA beats Holy Bull by a half.


* Woodward:

RA Beyer: 109

Best this decade: Lawyer Ron 119

Best since '92: (Formal Gold 125 & Bertrando 125)

Result: RA finishes 2nd by 6.5 lengths to Lawyer Ron.

RA finishes 2nd beaten 10 lengths to Bertrando .. while 3.5 lengths clear of Devil His Due in 3rd. RA finishes 4th beaten 10 lengths to Formal Gold, Skip Away, and Will's Way.


From a sheer figure standpoint ... her record is 9-6-3-0 against the fastest editions this decade.

Wins coming against Sara Louise, two against Eight Belles, Rags To Riches, Fleet Renee, and Any Given Saturday. Defeats coming to Take Charge Lady, Smarty Jones, and Lawyer Ron.

Since '92 her record is either 9-4-5-0 or 9-4-3-0 .. depending if you want to use the Smarty Jones and Bertrando races - or the Silver Charm and Formal Gold races.

Just food for thought. Obviously if you took the slowest editions of each race - you can have her killing just about every field but the Woodward. She'd have Prarie Bayou by almost 7 lengths in the Preakness.

Interesting :tro:

Yeah, it's still raining here.

I needed something to occupy my mind .. you just can't sit around and dream of an 18-1 season all day.

Very nice work and a true testament to the type of season she has had this year. It continues to blow my mind that some on here, whether serious or not, are trying to latch onto ridiculous reasoning for why she's not a great horse or at least a really, really good horse who had a great year.

NT

So which Northeast NFL team are you a fan?

I'm a fan of no city or corporation. Just Moss. The NFL is dead to me when he retires.

I saw Blushing KD at Monmouth. What an animal.

Blushing K D was seriously injured after the Mth race. She didn't die for several years, I think when she was six.

You've got too much time on your hands, and I'm glad of it. Good stuff!

--Dunbar

Rachel is much like her daddy. An exceptional horse up to 9f but just like her daddy she is vulnerable at 10f.

I don't think Rachel would have finished ahead of Icon Project or CJ this weekend in the 10f Beldame and her connections know it. There really was no excuse to not run her this weekend. It is a dirt race. Fans want to see the best against the best and clearly Icon Project is the best 10f dirt animal in the country. Rachel's connections did racing no favors by ending her racing season before the best racing begins.

First of all, Careless Jewel isn't even running in the Beldame and it's not even 10 furlongs! Second of all, if you had any ability to judge pace you'd have an entirely different opinion of Rachel Alexandra's ability to get 10 furlongs. It's very easy to take 9f and 9.5f races that were run in a very peculiar way where she was understandably tired late and say that she wouldn't get the extra furlong.

NT

P.S. Here's a video of MDO getting vulnerable at 10fs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDl6LmeQgiY

Yeah, I was wondering when the Beldame got switched back to 10f. Didn't see any press releases on that.

I have always thought it was one of the silliest things ever to read that Medaglia d'Oro was vulnerable at 10f. He happened to lose to Pleasantly Perfect in the BC in one of the best efforts you'll see from a horse. He was beaten by Candy Ride while setting a track record for the distance at DM. There's a difference between losing to better horses at a distance than being vulnerable at it. Medaglia d'Oro was probably better at 10f than 90% of all horses that have run it on the dirt in this country since this decade began. Maybe 95%.

I don't get it... so in this case there's no such thing as vulnerable, there's only better horses.

Medaglia d'Oro was a good horse, but he was all-out to hold Repent going 10f who if I remember correctly was coming off a big layoff. Medaglia d'Oro was a good horse, but he certainly didn't excel at 10f, which I suppose makes him vulnerable compared to how he was at 9f, right?

He'd have lost to Secretariat, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid at 9f. Does that mean that he was vulnerable at that distance too? I will say that I don't think he was as good at 10f as he was at 9f but he was still damn good at it. If he's running today, he would be dominating these goats out there and nobody would be suggesting that he is vulnerable at 10f. Timing does a whole lot when it comes to public perception.

Meanwhile, he got beat a head in the Belmont Stakes. But he couldn't go 10F. LOL

Well, yeah!

What makes you think that if he can't get 10, he'd get 12?

He got beat by Sarava .. which might only further undermine things.

I think he was marginally a little better horse at 9fs .. the actual record is misleading though.

Here's who ran 2nd to him in his 7 wins short of 10fs...

* Tallest Timber

* U S S Tinosa

* Quest

* Olmodavor

* Slider

* Volponi (that was the year he went 0-for-8)

* Seattle Fitz


In his final 3 tries at 10fs ... he ran 2nd's with Beyers of 117 and 118 against outstanding horses in Candy Ride and Pleasantly Perfect ... than he missed by less than a length when 2nd in the Dubai World Cup to PP.

In his 9f races - he dined on cupcakes.

If Medaglia D' Oro was around right now ... the current handicap division would be in a world of trouble at any distance.

If Medaglia D'Oro was around right now we wouldnt be able to enjoy Rachel :(

Uncle Rico's time machine.

They could race each other.

Let me dam this up before someone else draws a parallel to the McKenzie Phillips story.

How much you wanna bet I can throw a football over them mountains?

I'm sure you'd like to not be bored, but I rather selfishly hope you're bored for awhile longer. These analysis are kinda fun to read. Great job.

Since we all know horses just can't run as much as they used to, he'd only manage a start every 4-6 weeks...there are still plently of Grade 1s left for the other horseys!

i kind of agree about the rachel part. her daddy was good at 10f. they seem to not want to run her 10f. after the preakness i can see why. shes a great horse no doubt. but shes not the icon some make her out to be. she was in trouble in the woodward and still won ,like a good horse should. my guess is that took alot out of her and she would not be ready this weekend. even if she runs again i don't think she will ever take on the boys at 10 f. and the way that horse looked at saratoga the girls would be no cinch either.

Thanks, I need a good laugh this morning

Is Rachel Alexadra faster than any typical Top 3yr old?
 

I am fairly new to speed figures but based on what I have seen it does not appear that she is anything more than your typical top 3yr old.

It looks like much of her reputation as a great horse had to do with beating bad fillies and overrated colts.

Can anyone provide solid facts and figures that show her to be something unusually fast?

let me get this straight. you know enough to call icon project great, but someone has to convince you that rachel is something special? i hope no one wastes their time, as you obviously have your mind made up, have an agenda, and wish only to be nonsensical and adversarial. have fun with that.

I never said Icon Project was great. I said I think she can be great. She has no distance limitations and I think she is capable of a 120 type beyer at 10f.

Now if you can't provide facts and figures showing how Rachel is any different than your Street Sense, Curlin, Big Brown types than how can you say she is great and they are not. Clearly they were very good horses but far from great.

Someone tell me the last time someone ran a 120 Beyer at 10f on this continent.

Hell, someone tell me the last time a filly of any age, shape, or form ran a 120 going any distance, let alone 10 panels.

Rachel Alexandra has five of the top 15 route Beyers run this year, for whatever that's worth, since we're talking Beyer Speed Figures and all.

It could have only been: Ghostzipper, Candy Ride or Formal Gold.

Apparently, Lava Man got a 120 Beyer in the Hollywood Gold Cup back in 2005.

Nobody has done it since Ghostzapper. He was great. That is the point. Too many people throw the word great around and there has not been a great horse since him.


Icon Project looks to me like an animal that may flirt with that figure.

I thought the Lava Man figure was a 118 but either way I think people can argue he was great. His longevity must be factored in and he ran at a great level for a good time and he could run on anything.

I put Lavaman more in the Invasor and Saint Liam, just below the greats.

Lava Man had a SWEET record outside of Cali, so yeah, he sure could run on anything. Good call.

Attacking Lava Man for his record outside CA is sort of ridiculous. It is not like all his CA races were at 1 track.

Would you criticize a horse with great wins at Belmont, Saratoga, and Aqueduct but a few poor efforts at Churchill and Gulfstream?

Lava Man ran for a long time and ran a bunch of races and obviously he was a very good horse.

Great? No. But he won big races on a bunch of different surfaces. So yes he could run on anything. Show me all the grade 1 winners on dirt and turf.

Yes.

So a horse that can win the Man O War on the turf at Belmont, the Wood at Aqueduct, and the Whitney at Saratoga isn't worthy of praise because he ran poorly in the Clark and Donn?

Of course not. Lava Man was very versatile and perhaps he just did not like getting on planes.

There's a reason Sky Beauty is not in the Hall of Fame...

Yes, it was that fear of flying that made him run 11th in the Japan Cup Dirt and 16th in the Dubai Duty Free. At least he was consistently bad when he tried to leave California.

You know what is funny about this Lava Man sidebar? Rachel Alexandra has run on seven different tracks this year and won on all of them: Oaklawn, Churchill, Pimlico, Fair Grounds, Belmont, Monmouth, and Saratoga.