Breeders Cup Turf winners 1999-2008
 

I'm getting excited about the Breeders Cup, just looked over the past 10 years turf races. Here's how I'd rank them

1. Daylami 1999 (As good as there is on this list, this is no contest!)

2. High Chaparral 2002/2003 (such a professional no nonsense horse!)

3. Fantastic Light 2001 (Improved every year, so good over 10f or 12)

4. Kalanisi 2000 (Very underrated horse, had some might tussles with Giants Causeway, will probably be the last horse to win the Champion Stakes and BC Turf in the same year?)

5. Conduit 2008 (Some may say he is high enough on this list and benefitted from a suicidal pace last year, but this guy can really motor when in top gear and will make a bold bid to join High Chap as a double winner)

6. Shirocco 2005 (Was an out and out stayer, got his conditions in Belmont, and had a successful 2006 until the Arc)

7. English Channel 2007 (Needed a mudbath to win it, but was a solid enough, consistent horse for his whole career)

8. Better Talk Now 2004 (Rather fortunate winner I thought but he was a great servant to connections and nearly doubled up 2006)

9. Red Rocks 2006 (Famous for this win and beating Curlin. Hasnt really done much more!)

10. Johar 2003 (Played his part in history but it would have been a tragedy had he beaten High Chaparral)

Johar was a much better horse than most people realize. I'd put him quite a bit higher.

Really? The same Johar whose biggest win in America prior to the BC was the Hollywood Derby over Mananan McLir?

These are the PPs for Turf winners between 96 and 2005. http://www.drf.com/bc/2005/pps/winners/turf.pdf

I'll try to grab the PPs for Red Rocks, English Channel, and Conduit but there's no way Johar was better than maybe one or two of the others on that 99-2005 list.

NT

There's more to it than just what is on paper. I followed this horse closely since he broke his maiden and I was convinced early on, and still am convinced, that was a tremendously talented horse.

He did lose way too often though, I'll give you that. One thing that I really liked about him was his turn of foot. He kind of reminded me of a male version of Toussaud, without the mental issues. Awesome acceleration.

1. Daylami
2. High Chaparral
3. Kalanisi
4. Fantastic Light
5. English Channel
6. Better Talk Now
7. Red Rocks
8. Shirocco
9. Conduit
10. Johar

my least favorite BC race to watch

So, people rate High Chapparal 2nd on the list but Johar tenth, despite their deadheat the one time they met.

Yeah, that makes sense.

How the hell is any American supposed to be able to rank those? You can't do it without a whole lot of guess work.

Here's the best I can do...

#1: I don't know
#2: I don't know
#3: I don't know
#4: I don't know
#5: I don't know
#6: I don't know
#7: I don't know
#8: I don't know
#9: Red Rocks
#10: Johar

Whose biggest win was in a suspect American Derby at Arlington and who was basically dusted in all his other graded stakes tries....except when he was running close to Johar.

Not a shining endorsement.

I think Conduit will repeat this year. I could see Dar Re Mi running in the BC Turf though instead of the Fillie Turf race and I could see Dar Re Mi winning it this year. It will be interesting to see if she runs in the ARC. I doubt she could beat Sea The Stars but at 10-1 I might take a shot with her.

you just have to accept that the euros are better, even when one of theirs deadheats with one of our lousy turf horses. as to where to rank them individually, who knows?

You saw Daylami race, it's a no brainer he's #1. The rest are a lot closer, but I've seen enough of their races to have a creditable opinion.

Probably a very sharp bettor who follows Euro racing day in and day out if anyone.

It's not easy to compare American turf horses 5-to-10 years apart with confidence.

I guess if Cigar had retired before putting it all together, my prediction of future greatness for him would have been scoffed at as well. Come to think of it, it was (by friends)!

Perhaps Johar just needed more time to mature as a racehorse, I don't know.

I do know, however, that if you know how to watch a horse, you'd have seen an acceleration with him that you rarely see from other horses.

Back when he was running, I thought that perhaps his rider had a tendency to get him going just a bit too late to get to the wire first.

Toussaud must have been a goat as well I guess, since she didn't win even half her starts either. I wonder how it's possible Frankel thought her, at least at one point, thought her to be one of the best three fillies or mares he'd ever had.

Johar was in the midsts of pronounced progression late in his 3yo year, and his first start of 2003 (victory of elder The Tin Man) looked as though it would be a springboard to much greater things. A shoulder injury derailed everything.

His two losses prior to the BC, hardly humiliating defeats, could easily be seen as "racing into form" preps for the Turf.

Its not hard to imagine the horse being at least the equivalent of another American like Bien Bien in terms of accomplishments, had he stayed healthy.

The top 4 and bottom 2 were pretty clearcut i thought. The rest are all in a heap.

Johar wasnt a good horse. He benefitted, I thought from the bad ride Daryll Holland gave the very iffy stayer Falbrav, Kinane had to go earlier than he would have and was nearly nicked on the line.. I was very keen on Red Rocks the year he won it (He is probably one of the reasons I am welcomed over to Arlington and other places :) ), but he just isnt a good horse..

That's an interesting twist. Johar was able to deadheat with the beloved High Chapparal due to a bad ride a jock gave a third horse?

And just how many races of Johar's did you see? As Rollo just mentioned, Johar was coming around nicely towards the end of his three year old campaign, and personally, I think he would have won the BC that year had he run in it.

On the basis of his scintillating nose win over Rock Opera in what would have been his final tune-up, I assume?

Since we're talking bad rides now, I'd like to see some rankings of worst BC rides in any turf race. There have been some BEAUTIES, especially from the Euro jocks.

You may have seen more in Johar than he put on the track but it's somewhat undeniable given what we saw from horses like Daylami, Fantastic Light, Kalanisi, and even the emerging Conduit that they are far better than him on their best days.

NT

Ranking them strictly based on their Turf wins:

1. Daylami
2. Shirocco
3. High Chaparral
4. Fantastic Light
5. English Channel
6. Kalanisi
7. Red Rocks
8. Conduit
9. Better Talk Now
10. Johar

I nominate Murtagh's ride on Soldier of Fortune last year. Hurrying into your rabbit on the backstretch of a 12 furlong race is always intelligent.

Of course there's also Swain.

NT

Spencer gave Powerscourt a really brilliant one, too.

Go on then, tell me how impressive Johar was for the rest of his career? No need, he wasnt. You can come up with all the ifs and buts in the world, but I cant see how you can put him any higher.

On the other hand, High Chaparral won the Derby, The Irish Derby, another Breeders Cup, an Irish Champion Stakes and on his bad days, he came 3rd in 2 Arcs.. He also won a G1 as a 2 year old..

Murtagh's ride on Soldier gets some amount of bad press over here as well, a way in how not to do team tactics.. but i sort of got what Coolmore were trying to do. Soldier of Fortune isnt quick, he is essentially a grinder, no turn of foot, just a real stayer. I guess they thought if they made it into a real slog from a mile out, he would be the one that would last home. If they went any slower they would be vulnerable to anyone with a turn of foot.

Still it wasnt a good ride, there was the Leger winner who basically got his dream pace scenario due to Coolmore..

Spencer's ride on Powerscourt was awful. He doubled up pretty nicely with Antonius Pius that year!

Whatever their intention was that's fine but Diane Nelson would have been able to tell that they were flying in front of her and it was probably a bad idea to engage at the 5/8 pole in a 12 furlong race.

The plan to win with the best stayer is realistic when you're talking about a mid-range type pace. However, Murtagh had to have known they were cooking in front of him and whether he did or not, to me it was a terrible ride.

NT

They werre also in highly unusual 3 and 4 horse fields

You seem stuck on superficial form. Of course, most on total accomplishment, surpass Johar. But whereas time may mean little in Europe, certainly NA handicappers glancing at the 1:46 flat for the Oak Tree Derby, the record setting 1:57 4/5 for the San Marcos, or the 2:24+ in the BC Turf have to admit he was a serious racehorse, probably more so than Red Rocks and Better Talk Now at the very least.

Except what you are doing is mostly comparing older European horse form to an american three year old form. The only 2 legit races Johar ran in as a 4 year old he won. He dead heated High Chapparal. For those that dont understand that means tied. That means he beat a bunch of other Euros and was at least the equal of the best one. Look at Schirrocos form. Before the BC he never won a race outside of Germany or Italy. It is pretty apparant that we never saw much of the best of Johar on the track as an older horse.

Yet he could only muster a dead heat with lowly Johar in the Cup

There's a lot hidden in that statement Chuck.. He never raced outside Germany (where he won the Derby) and Italy (where he beat a Dubai World Cup winner!) until September of his 4yo career. After being off for a nearly a year, He was 3rd behind Pride (multple G1 filly) and Alkaased (a Japan Cup winner) in his prep for the Arc, then was 4th in the Arc behind mutiple G1 winners Hurricane Run, Westerner and Bago.

Excluding Johars BC win, you could say Shirocco's 4th in that Arc was better than anything Johar accomplished..

That may be true but Johar did DH with a very very good horse in High Chaparel which surely is a better effort than anything Shirocco ever produced. The fact was Johar was a horse who improved almost from day 1, had a compromised 4 year old year and no record after the BC due to injury. While his body of work may not be as complete as some of the others his best race was pretty damn good. Certainly he wasnt a cinch to continue to improve but chances are that we never did see his best. Plus Shirracco beat Ace in his BC. Hank could give Ace a run for his money.

Thanks for the clarification on what's a dead heat. That's scheduled to be covered in session #4 that I have with RockHardTenPGJCS113004055Dagulla where he teaches me racing and we're only on #2.

I'm not getting into potential because that's really what any fan of Johar is resting their case upon.

I didn't say anything about Shirocco but having the luxury of seeing the entire careers of Fantastic Light, Daylami, and Kalanisi, then I'm willing to say that even if we didn't see the best of Johar, it would have had to be better than anything he had done prior to best those "older European horses."

NT

Of course it is conjecture but again you are comparing established older horse form to an abbreviated career. Not saying that Johar was going to be better than those but the fact was his 2 fairly run races as a 4 year old were pretty damn good. And if he was good enough on his best day to DH with the 2nd best horse on the list than he surely had the potential to be at least as good s the rest if he had been given the chance. It wasnt as though he was some bum as BWS is trying to imply.

I do like that you called me out, when I've been much nicer than several others posting about him.

With that said...

I'm fairly confident that my assessment is much closer to spot on than that one borderline unbelievable post in here that was trying to imply that a nose win over Rock Opera was going to be a springboard to a BC Turf win.

I never said he was terrible. I stand by the assertion that EVERYONE else here but you and IC is trying to say -- that he ran a huge race in the BC....but on that list, he's just not that good compared to them, you know, the original point of the thread.

Not cool Nick.

Itsallgreektome won a Grade 3 at Bay Meadows against fellow 3yos before nearly taking down the BC Mile in '90. It goes back to the idea that young horses can progress fairly rapidly.

While in 2002 Indian Charlie would have been dodging tomatoes for predicting such, the fact that Johar DID win the BC Turf the following year takes a lot of the absurdity out of the prediction.

Except for the fact that they're a year apart and don't really have anything to do with each other.

Obviously Johar was a better horse the year he won the BC Turf. The idea that a desperate nose winner over Rock Opera was going to go win the BC Turf in his next start (no less after seeing how it was won....) is made no less absurd because the horse won the BC turf over a year later. Non sequiter.