9/19: Belmont Park (4th-10th)
 

BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: 22nd Noble Damsel (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Does Rutherienne win here? Probably.. Should you take $3 on a notorious hanger that refuses to win against whatever level of competition she faces? Absolutely not. Fred Seitz' filly has the hedge, Ramon and 5 pounds on the favorite. She's nearly as fast too and will be at least a $20 prop. I'll bite.

Best Value: #1 Meadow Saffron 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Rutherienne 1-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Quiet Meadow 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Social Queen 8-1 3rd


5th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Sunny 5-1 9th
Most Likely: #1 Es Mia 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Casa Di Vino 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Simple Western 8-1 WON

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 7 with 1-2-3-6 with 1-2-3-4-5-6 with All (1x4x5x7 = 140 x .10 = $14.00)


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Pictural 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Picou 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Brother Nick 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Crown Point 20-1 9th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 4-5 with 4-5 with 2-3-6-8-9-11 with All (2x1x6x8 = 960 x .10 = $9.60)


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 D' Wildcard 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Live On the Edge 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Pavoratti's Soul 10-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Stroll for Acure 2-1 5th


8th: 120th Futurity (Gr. II), 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 D' Funnybone 6-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Discreetly Mine 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Successful Score 10-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Thiskyhasnolimit 12-1 3rd

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-6 with 1-6-7-8 with 1-3-6-7-8 with All (2x3x3x5 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)


9th: 103rd Matron (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Very well-matched group of fillies.. Will play against 2-1 Violette fave..

Most Likely: #4 Awesome Maria 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Worship the Moon 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Speightful Lady 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Southern Truth 20-1 4th


10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Terrific nightcap with mind-bendingly balanced bunch of solid state-breds. Respect ML fave #10 Scientist (3-1), but simply compelled to find prices here. Impossible finish to very tough P4..

Best Value: #2 Globemaster 8-1 10th
Most Likely: #12 Livin Large 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Too Amenable 8-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Gamblin Fever 15-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

Murderously tough quad..

7: 1-4
8: 1-6
9: 1-2-4-5-6-8
10: 2-5-12

2x2x6x3 = $72

P4 Paid $268.50


Good luck!
Steve

Steve go check out the stakes thread in the main forum, I posted last night, we think exactly alike for the 4th-5th races... Good Luck.

First time I've ever seen a 10-for-21 horse be called a notorious hanger.

On another note, has this meet been chalky enough so far? Favorites are winning at over 46%.

Most of her wins were in her 3yr old seasson, she does not win when shes supposed to, what is that?

That's: not understanding race dynamics. This horse is far from a hanger.

Ok.
I guess I dont understand, I put 36$ into trying to beat her... I thought it was worth trying to beat her.

It's not worth trying to beat any chalk at this track right now. Up over 47% now, it'll go up another percentage point when Ruthy wins.

Well IMO the pick 3's Im live to are all giant OVERLAYS.

Tough beat. Garcia almost butchered that one.

Um I still dont see her nose on the line, WTF

Wait for the headon. Appears that Javier did all he could to put him in tight.

Certainly a 'hanger' performance by Rutherienne.

NYRA conspiring against you. Have they shown the photo yet? If you are complaining from what you see on the video, stop it.

They showed the photo for a good minute. It's about as close as you can get without a dead heat, but Ruthy was first. So much for those overlaid Pick 3's.

Well I could not tell, clearly a lot harder with the 5 on the outside, they did not show any reverse angle....

Yeah, Castellano tried to put him over the rail, but Garcia let Castellano get the jump on him, then decided not to switch outside when he could've. A little too confident, but the mare got it done somehow.

Look closely.

I see a dead heat...

Well, this is when the STEWARDS need to make an appearance and FINE him. Javier INTENTIONALLY steers his horse in to, as you stated, put Garcia over the rail. This goes beyond race riding.

If they allow Castellano to herd at will, they really shouldn't be taking OTHER jocks down for not keeping straight paths.

As for Castellano, he got BENT OVER today.

No you don't. Look at the snippet of blue between Quiet Meadow's nose and the line. You don't see that in front of Rutherienne's nose.

RHT, you have to be kidding, she clearly won the photo though by the closest of margins and probably the most favorable point of the bob for her, but she won the race. No dead heat, there was a tiny bit of space between Ruth and Quiet Meadow.

TFM, I have to agree with you on this one, Javier should get days, he clearly tried to cut Garcia off and that is nothing but dangerous riding.

sure...

Thanks Steve..Check out Sat. play along for more details of my first ever Pick-4.!! It was all you. Just screwing around while drinking some beers and used for most likely for races 7,8, and 9 with all of your picks for the 10th.
$4 = 268.50. WOW!!! I'll take it!

Call her whatever you want. Her recent performances said it all. She waits on horses.

And meet has been crazily chalky... (though Sciacca tried to shake it up in the opener with kooky San Naa at @ 60-1)...

Ah.. the Prince of the ATF comment.

Thattaboy! Glad you caught it... Was an OK pay considering the first three winners.

Including today she is 3/12 in the last 2 years.... Before that she was 7/10....Her numbers have never really improved, so the same horse who was 7/10 is still running, its not like she's fallen off, IMO at some point she lost the will to win and is now A HANGER... Todays race does not make me think other, that was the closest possible margin of victory.

Shes def. a hanger, but these guys tell me I dont understand dynamics... She had a rough trip today, SURE.... She was still all out to win at 1-5... Shes a ok Grade 3 level performer that they can make some money w/ if they continue to run her... Nothing more.

WoW!!

Ahhh.

So conveniently neglects post # 5.

Ooh.. the race dynamics catch-all! Much like the 'Twinkie Defense' for horses that really aren't that good. She's just not inclined to pass horses up front. 5 different riders since the start of 2008 too, so you can't claim ongoing ineptitude. Her 2 wins since last spring include the vanquishing of Callwood Dancer, Meadow Saffron (twice), Points of Grace, Favorite Fantasy, Remarkable Remy, Tell It Like It Is and then this collection of listed stake winners and G3 (at best) miserables.

Rutherienne is not the horse she gave the indication of being as a 3yo. I don't think there's a debate to have on the topic. And counting on her at 2-5 is a quick way to lose money. And she nearly came through with another disappointment yesterday like the mundane product she is.

She proved yesterday, after being put in tight by the punk Castellano, where Garcia wasn't able to whip her without hitting the rail, that she is game. Most horses don't battle back from being pinned inside. As for the indication she gave as a 3 year old: she got more than her share of PERFECT trips, including the Lake George, where she came up on the rail while Sharp Susan and Lady Attack were in the parking lot. I never thought much of this horse but she's cost me a ton of money with her photo wins. You can say that she's not that good, at least not G1 quality, but to consider her a hanger is to miss the point.

I don't know, maybe it's just me but I don't DEPEND on those instances where I need to get lucky to get me through the game, like RockHard... does. If I need to depend on a jock herding to win a race, putting another jock and horse in danger, and then have the balls to bitch afterwards when the attempt fails, what else need be said?

And, if race dynamics is a 'Twinkie Defense", what exactly is using someone else's FIGURES and DATA to form an opinion? Not watching races but trying to explain them by using the abstractions of others is really not conducive to any kind of argument I want to get into. But, it's the only one available here, it seems.

Fats,

I loved her as 3yo and thought she was a star at the end of 2007 and had huge things ahead... But didn't it turn out she was beating nothing special that year... Valbenny? Red Birkin? Sharp Susan? Bit of Whimsey? And getting ideal trips in beating them to boot? I'm not indicting her 'gameness'. She's been competitive for 2+ years at a high level. But at what point does she get labeled as an under-performer as a mare? She may simply be a difficult horse to ride in the way Perfect Drift was and Naughty New Yorker is/was; needing to be produced on perfect timing..

As to discussion of races and general capping habits and practices, I'm usually not one to label any particular approach negatively. Whatever gets winners is a good approach and everyone should develop their own unique style. I kidded about the race dynamics argument because it's completely interpretive and as easy an excuse for underwhelming effort as bounce theory is to sheet players.

I'm sorry if you find my incorporation of Thoro-Graph figs and statistics into my selection method some kind of egregious shortcut to perception. I incorporate much more than figs into my selection process, and I think I do pretty well. I watch as many races as time allows as part of my capping. I'd love to watch the last race of every competitor in every race, but many days it isn't practical.