9/12 (BEL): Ruffian H., Garden City S. (G1's)
 

4TH (2:35) Ruffian H. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Swift Temper Garcia Alan 118 L
2 Be Fair Gomez G K 112 L
3 Exotic Indy Velazquez J R 114 L
4 Seventh Street Maragh R 122 L
5 Luna Vega Bridgmohan S X 116 L
6 Skylighter Leparoux J R 116 L



8TH (4:43) Garden City S. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles (Inner turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Gozzip Girl Desormeaux K J 122 L
2 Katara Castellano J J 116 L
3 Don't Forget Gil Leparoux J R 118 L
4 Miss World Gomez G K 116 L
5 Many Kisses Luzzi M J 116 L
6 Shared Account Dominguez R A 120 L
7 Pull Dancer Garcia Alan 116 L
8 Maram Lezcano J 118 L
9 Keertana Coa E M 118 L

Over/under on how many poles Seventh Street wins by?

The Garden City is a nice race. So many of these are coming off very good performances in their last. Take a long look at Pull Dancer. She's really improving...perfect trip or not, she exploded last time. She may sneak away at a nice price with Gozzip Girl and Maram taking money for sure.

Nice way to begin what should be a fantastic meeting.

If Gozzip Girl falls down, Pull Dancer is the one I'd look to also.

1.6?

Eh, upon closer inspection, the race came up tougher than I thought. Swift Temper and Luna Vega can both give her fits.

Even with the added weight of PG'85 .... Maragh will have a tougher time making it to Erie by 8 PM than winning that race.

I think it's 2 horse race, Swift Temper is decent.

Handicapping the 6-8 pick 3 now. I know this might sound crazy, but Im not sure the Gozzip Girl is much better then the 6,7 especially on a soft turf. Maram has some foot issues right now and might scratch, I need to hope she runs, because IMO she's simply not as good as the top 3 and will be the second choice. I might just end all my pick 3's with 6,7 and hope my read is correct.

What makes you think they're as good as Gozzip Girl? Her lone effort on wet turf was very, very good considering she won with a trip that she had never had before.

She is so incredibly much better than any of the horses in here I think she might be one of the easiest winners of the meet.

NT

Agreed. Which is why I'm with him on hoping Maram runs. That might make GG 6-5 instead of 1-2. If you believe Brown though, she won't run.

OK. Well you take her at 6-5, maybe lower. I play pick 3's, I will be happy to get live to my 2, both will be over 5-1 and both will have inflated pick 3 payouts because of the top 2.

If you take her American Oaks out, shes slightly better then these and anyone can improve and beat her. Matz filly was BEST in the American Oaks, if she wins then what? Im not sold on her, Im either right or wrong. Im going to trust my gut, and use the 6,7.... As long as Maram runs, I am assured value.

Miss World also might be ok. I might even use her instead of Shared Account.

Dude, she was life and death to win last time with an absolute perfect trip against much cheaper. Just how much do you think Clement can move up to compete with the top 3? Shes hung in races prior to finally winning last time. Shes the easiest throwout of the race.

LOL...

Your boy Serling just called her the most likely to upset.
I think Clement can have her ready to compete.

Opinions, everybotti got em! Mine is shes way in over her head and the only horse who can beat Gozzip Girl is Pull Dancer, but I would like her a lot better on firm turf. To me, its a no play, but good luck with Miss World. You'll be getting paid if she wins and I'll eat crow.

Talk tomorrow about Sunday's card. Its more likely I'll play there.

We can talk about Sundays card now, I plan on making 1,2 bets tomorrow.
Only races 6-8. A lean pick 3 2-2-3.... the middle leg I will lean heavily on the Violette. Then a spread.... 4-4-3.... I will end both of them with my 3, Miss World, Ramon and Garcia.

Sunday hmm....
Race 3- The 6 might be ok. Almost has to be a ok price with KM having one and Prado riding one that looks live.

Race 7- I think the 1 turns the cables. Straight Story has upside still and faced REAL runners last time. I would bet the 1 to win and box those 2, try getting Banrock out of the exacta

Race 8- The 1 entry is almost unbeatable. A better single then Gozzip tomorrow, IMO

Race 9- Im willing to give the 6 one more chance.

I'm not sure I could take a super short price on Gozzip Girl. Even though she is the most likely winner it's not like the American Oaks is turning out to be a super key race (same could be said for the Sands Point).

I also think the pace situation is interesting as Ramon could easily send Shared Account and suddenly Gozzip Girl is stuck having to close/rate off a slow pace on a very wet surface.

Plus, Miss World and Pull Dancer are improving and if someone stubs a toe Keertana always runs her race.

I love you man. I needed some backup on this one.

Why is Shared Account faster than Gozzip Girl? Especially with the latter breaking inside the former. I realize that Dominguez got it all his own way setting the most ridiculously slow paces on the turf up at SAR the entire meet but I'm thinking that Kent has an understanding of the situation and will probably not let anyone try to control with slow fractions; and will run a similar race strategically to the Sands Point. I realize GG got a very nice setup out in CALI but look what's in this race. This is field of allowance horses otherwise.


Edit: I really an editor.

For all of the Desormeaux bashing that goes on (and I'm definitely one of the bashers) the guy is tremendous when it comes to assessing a situation and riding his horse like they're the best in the race. Case in point was the Sands Point when he capitalized on the paceless setup and took the race to them. He's very, very good when it comes to that stuff.

I can't imagine how anyone who has watched replays of races could like Miss World, Pull Dancer, or Shared Account, all of whom had incredibly perfect trips in their last races. They might have upside but upside, to me, comes into play when you have a vulnerable favorite. Gozzip Girl is not vulnerable at all.

NT

If Kent takes her to the front and backs down the pace she'll probably win for fun. My thought was the way to play against her is to think he pulls back and tries to emulate that American Oaks kick in the stretch.

I love Kent, I think he's top 5. I just think Gozzip is slightly overated. If Im right about that, any with upside can jump up and win.

Here are some prop bets on these two races from World Sports Exch (wsex.com):

Outcome Lengths Money Line
SEVENTH STREET/BE FAIR -160
FIELD (ALL 4 MUST GO) +130

Outcome Lengths Money Line
SWIFT TEMPER -1.0 -115
LUNA VEGA +1.0 -115

Outcome Lengths Money Line
GOZZIP GIRL -0.5 -140
PULL DANCER/MARAM +0.5 +110

Example: In the last one, if you bet on Pull Dancer/Maram, then if either of them finishes less than 1/2 length behind Gozzip Girl, you win $11 for every $10 you bet. (losing by exactly 1/2 length would be a push.)

--Dunbar

I think I'd rather wait and take a shot against a much more vulnerable favorite in Grand Couterier tomorrow in the Bowling Green. Granted, his price will be higher than that of Gozzip Girl, but I think hes twice as likely to lose as Gozzip Girl.

Looks like a chalky day at the office for the Ruffian and GC.

Thats why they run races on dirt and turf, not paper. Wow, what an upset. No excuse perfect trip for Seventh Street and did she ever look flat in the stretch.

It's only a big upset because Seventh Street was so horrendously overbet. I figured she'd be 3-5, not 1-4. People really drank the "Godolphin is back!" Kool-Aid.

They looked at her off-track record and sprouted wood and hard nips. I played my area code (215) for $5. :rolleyes:

I knew she'd be lower than 3/5. She didnt look good at all. Reminded me of Coccoa Beach when she lost in her first back on the dirt this year. Very dull effort.

She didn't run well but she ran significantly better than Cocoa Beach did in that ridiculous overnight race. The winning Beyer by the other-worldly With Flying Colors in that Cocoa Beach race was a 77 for crying out loud. Seventh Street at least ran a fast race today, the fractions were:

23.03 / 45.58 / 1:09.71 / 1:34.13 / 1:40.59

NT

It's not like she looked spectacular coming down the stretch at Saratoga... it was just a matter of finding someone who could out-finish her.

IMrbO ("in my red-boarding opinion"), anyone looking at the BSF's would have wondered why she'd be even 3-5. Both Luna Vega and Swift Temper had been running equal or better BSF's in their last few.

The bridgejumpers made a little money this time. Of the $323,368 in the show pool, 93.0% of it was bet on the Seventh Street entry. The previous race had 1/10th the show pool.

--Dunbar

I'm with you on Pull Dancer. Outside of Gozzip Girl, she doesn't have much to beat. I'm shocked no Euros came over to steal the pot.

Really? She was up on a :45 and change half and was only beaten 1 1/2 in 1:40 and change. She was well clear of third. I'm no big fan of hers and Swift Temper was certainly best, but her effort was far from very dull.

I figured the "class of the race" angle as well as the connections would have her at around 3-5. As long as we're redboarding, I put a few bucks on Swift Temper, so I'm glad Seventh Street got bet like she did.

GREAT ride Desormeaux.

NT

Not saying it was all his fault, but this reads kinda funny now.

You had to figure the first time I pay the guy a compliment he'd do that.

That was a 1st class horrendous ride.

NT

On top of him earlier on TVG saying she's the best horse he rides today....