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-   -   Leading Trainer / Jockey 2 weeks to go (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31374)

gales0678 08-25-2009 06:30 AM

Leading Trainer / Jockey 2 weeks to go
 
2 weeks to go folks and we have a monumental upset in the making up at the old spa.

Linda Rice leads by two over Todd Pletcher , Rice has simply been on fire the first 4 weeks of the meet. She has an amazing 13 winners from 33 starters39% win percentage.

If she pulls this out over the giants (tp and wm) would this be considered one of the best training meets for anyone at saratoga ever ? How many will she need to win to pull this off? Can she do it or will her form revert to where it was before the meet when she batted 20 % at Belmont this spring?

Looks like it will come down to Garcia or Ramon. Will Garcia continue to win on Linda Rice's horses will that be the difference in the battle of the jocks? Will Ramon be able to overtake him in the last 2 weeks as he most surely will get a few more mounts ?

S/b a good 2 weeks

robfla 08-25-2009 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
2 weeks to go folks and we have a monumental upset in the making up at the old spa.

Linda Rice leads by two over Todd Pletcher , Rice has simply been on fire the first 4 weeks of the meet. She has an amazing 13 winners from 33 starters39% win percentage.

If she pulls this out over the giants (tp and wm) would this be considered one of the best training meets for anyone at saratoga ever ? How many will she need to win to pull this off? Can she do it or will her form revert to where it was before the meet when she batted 20 % at Belmont this spring?

Looks like it will come down to Garcia or Ramon. Will Garcia continue to win on Linda Rice's horses will that be the difference in the battle of the jocks? Will Ramon be able to overtake him in the last 2 weeks as he most surely will get a few more mounts ?

S/b a good 2 weeks


what I find amazing is that 90 ( i think ) different trainers have won at least one race at the current meet

Gander 08-25-2009 09:25 AM

I heard she has new barns this year away from the NYRA grounds.

Scav 08-25-2009 09:32 AM

Here we go

Gander 08-25-2009 09:36 AM

13 for 33 = 39%

Pretty damn good but I dont think she can win the title because Todd will have too many horses going now that the big races are here.

I hope this comes down to the wire.

Coach Pants 08-25-2009 09:37 AM

The suspense is killing me.

parsixfarms 08-25-2009 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
13 for 33 = 39%

Pretty damn good but I dont think she can win the title because Todd will have too many horses going now that the big races are here.

I hope this comes down to the wire.

It's less about Pletcher's horses in the big races than the seemingly endless number of horses that he's been dropping into claiming races to win with. During the last two years on the NYRA circuit, his winning percentage is over 20% with claimers; it's under 10% with stakes runners (thanks to Formulator).

Kasept 08-25-2009 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
Linda Rice leads by two over Todd Pletcher.

I'd think Bill Mott's 10 wins merit a mention as being in the hunt.. And how about George Weaver (the real best story of the meet) and his 9 wins?

gales0678 08-25-2009 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
I'd think Bill Mott's 10 wins merit a mention as being in the hunt.. And how about George Weaver (the real best story of the meet) and his 9 wins?


steve take a look at my initial post i mention 2 giants (tp and wm) ....can she beat them? from a historical perspective what type of upset would this be if she were able to win the training title? .... would she become the "queen of sartoaga" and take away that cherished title from Mary Lou Whitney? would a part of Broadway be renamed the "Linda Rice Way"

while i agree that George Weaver is having a great meet , unless he can pass todd , bill mott and linda rice in the last 2 weeks , i'm afraid he will get lost (unjustly so) in the story.

if she pulls it off this would have to be the upset of the ages, kinda like when the americans beat the russians in lake placid in 1980

postpicker 08-25-2009 10:18 AM

It is amazing that so many trainers have won at Saratoga but Bruce Levine is 0 for 37, Tom Albatrani is 0 for 25 and Allen Jerkens was 0 for 25 at the meet so far.

The jockey race will be interesting. The key will be Alan Garcia's social life. His gf left town to return to school last wednesday. He went out sat night and was still at the nightclub "The Venue" at 3 am. Then he wasn't riding that great on sunday. He had a good night rest sunday night and he comes back strong monday. If Garcia behaves and keeps his social life under control and doesn't try to womanize, he will win the riding title. But if he goes out a lot, tries to pick up anything with a bra and panties and cleavage and short skirts, like he did during the Keeneland meet (he was 3 for 56 and lost riding priviledges for a major owner because of his after race activities), then Ramon will win the riding title.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-25-2009 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by postpicker
He had a good night rest sunday night

I'm affraid to ask how you know this for sure.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-25-2009 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
I'd think Bill Mott's 10 wins merit a mention as being in the hunt.. And how about George Weaver (the real best story of the meet) and his 9 wins?

I was a little surprised no one took D' Bigcat from him.

RockHardTen1985 08-25-2009 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
steve take a look at my initial post i mention 2 giants (tp and wm) ....can she beat them? from a historical perspective what type of upset would this be if she were able to win the training title? .... would she become the "queen of sartoaga" and take away that cherished title from Mary Lou Whitney? would a part of Broadway be renamed the "Linda Rice Way"

while i agree that George Weaver is having a great meet , unless he can pass todd , bill mott and linda rice in the last 2 weeks , i'm afraid he will get lost (unjustly so) in the story.

if she pulls it off this would have to be the upset of the ages, kinda like when the americans beat the russians in lake placid in 1980


Your making this bigger then it is, Im not signing into formulator now, but Linda Rice is very high percentage trainer all year long. She is also consistently best at turf sprints, where do they run the most turf sprints?

gales0678 08-25-2009 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
I heard she has new barns this year away from the NYRA grounds.


i believe she was off the grounds last year as well Gander , steve might be able to shine some light on this, but for those of you not familar with Saratoga , NYRA does not have the capacity to house all the horses on it's grounds. At Belmont and the Big A there are no trainers with offsite barns, but , at Saratoga there are some trainers whose stalls are not on NYRA gorunds .... not to worry though the detention barn is still present in upstate NY as it is in Queens, and the horses still have to go into the detention barn before the races just like Belmont and the Big A

Gander 08-25-2009 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
steve take a look at my initial post i mention 2 giants (tp and wm) ....can she beat them? from a historical perspective what type of upset would this be if she were able to win the training title? .... would she become the "queen of sartoaga" and take away that cherished title from Mary Lou Whitney? would a part of Broadway be renamed the "Linda Rice Way"

while i agree that George Weaver is having a great meet , unless he can pass todd , bill mott and linda rice in the last 2 weeks , i'm afraid he will get lost (unjustly so) in the story.

if she pulls it off this would have to be the upset of the ages, kinda like when the americans beat the russians in lake placid in 1980

Yep, kind of like that!

There will be a movie about here starring Jennifer Aniston.

gales0678 08-25-2009 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
Your making this bigger then it is, Im not signing into formulator now, but Linda Rice is very high percentage trainer all year long. She is also consistently best at turf sprints, where do they run the most turf sprints?


yes she is a high percentage trainer , i think she was 20% at belmont, but 40% is just amazing for the 4 weeks , and she is at a big dis-advantage against these giants Bill Mott and Tood Pletcher. Pletcher has started 77 horses so far this meet or nearly 133% more than Linda and still trails her by two. Bill Mott has 57 starters or nearly 72 % more starters than Linda. Thinks about that in a numbers perspective , if she were able to start as many as the guys and maintain the same winning % she would be home free by now with about 27 winners already

as for the turf sprints they are run a lot at saratoga, but , she has been winning on the dirt and stretching sprinters out on the grass for wins as well, truly remarkable

maybe drugs can run the numbers for us for turf sprints ,dirt races , and routes on the grass , she is firing on al cylinders and is poised to make a good run at this title with a modest size barn compared to TP and WM

postpicker 08-25-2009 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'm affraid to ask how you know this for sure.

Reporters protect our sources but I can assure you, his actions are true (multiple eyewitnesses on sat) and there is a definite correlation with his social activities and how well he is or isn't riding. When you see Garcia standing up before wire, giving up early, making awful foul claims after an awful acting attempt, it is a safe assumption he wasn't in bed before the late news broadcast.

postpicker 08-25-2009 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
i believe she was off the grounds last year as well Gander , steve might be able to shine some light on this, but for those of you not familar with Saratoga , NYRA does not have the capacity to house all the horses on it's grounds. At Belmont and the Big A there are no trainers with offsite barns, but , at Saratoga there are some trainers whose stalls are not on NYRA gorunds .... not to worry though the detention barn is still present in upstate NY as it is in Queens, and the horses still have to go into the detention barn before the races just like Belmont and the Big A

Linda is across Nelson avenue at the harness track. The barn is right by the entrance to walk across the street to Claire Court. Other trainers that are stabled at the harness track incluse Jeff Odintz, Rodrigo Ubillo, Greg DePrima, Bernardo Callejas and a barn full of horses for Gary Contessa.

the_fat_man 08-25-2009 10:43 AM

He's a kid and he's at the SPA. Why shouldn't he enjoy himself?

When I don't get a good night sleep, my handicapping suffers. So ****in what?

The Indomitable DrugS 08-25-2009 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by postpicker
Reporters protect our sources but I can assure you, his actions are true (multiple eyewitnesses on sat) and there is a definite correlation with his social activities and how well he is or isn't riding. When you see Garcia standing up before wire, giving up early, making awful foul claims after an awful acting attempt, it is a safe assumption he wasn't in bed before the late news broadcast.

In order to know he had a good night of rest ... you'd have either had to have been in the room while he slept or you would have had to ask someone that was sleeping with him how well he slept.

Probably a little carried way with in depth reporting I'd say.

I believe Dominguez is 2 wins behind ... but he will pull this thing out. He has 29 second place finishes to Garcia's 12 seconds ... and a lot of those 17 extra who kept there conditions will show up at a short price. Dominguez also has him well beaten with 3rd and 4ths.

Garcia is also riding way over his head. Winning at 22% with a $2.77 ROI through the first four weeks ... numbers that are extremely difficult to sustain. I realize the guy with the hottest hand will be the "live" rider .. but the few extra live mounts he gets for being hot won't be enough to put him over the top imo.

gales0678 08-25-2009 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
In order to know he had a good night of rest ... you'd have either had to have been in the room while he slept or you would have had to ask someone that was sleeping with him how well he slept.

Probably a little carried way with in depth reporting I'd say.

I believe Dominguez is 2 wins behind ... but he will pull this thing out. He has 29 second place finishes to Garcia's 12 seconds ... and a lot of those 17 extra who kept there conditions will show up at a short price. Dominguez also has him well beaten with 3rd and 4ths.

Gracia is also riding way over his head. Winning at 22% with a $2.77 ROI through the first four weeks ... numbers that are extremely difficult to sustain. I realize the guy with the hottest hand will be the "live" rider .. but the few extra live mounts he gets for being hot won't be enough to put him over the top imo.


Drugs can yu post ROI's for the leading trainers ?

Also what is the ROI with Garcia / RICE combo? and then what is garcia's roi taking at all his winners on Linda Rice?

gales0678 08-25-2009 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by postpicker
Linda is across Nelson avenue at the harness track. The barn is right by the entrance to walk across the street to Claire Court. Other trainers that are stabled at the harness track incluse Jeff Odintz, Rodrigo Ubillo, Greg DePrima, Bernardo Callejas and a barn full of horses for Gary Contessa.


thx for the info postpicker i knew there were other trainers off of NYRA grounds as well during the meet, just didn't know who they were

The Indomitable DrugS 08-25-2009 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
Also what is the ROI with Garcia / RICE combo?

They are 18-8-0-1 with a $5.46 ROI together.

Gander 08-25-2009 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
thx for the info postpicker i knew there were other trainers off of NYRA grounds as well during the meet, just didn't know who they were

Hey Gales, can you tell me why she moved her barns over here this year? Do you have that information? We all know she is the Queen of turf sprints, that comes as no shocker, but her recent success on dirt and longer turf races, does this surprise you?

Gander 08-25-2009 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
They are 18-8-0-1 with a $5.46 ROI together.

Thanks. Can you provide this in 2 separate stats...one when Alan has a good night's sleep and the other when hes out at the bars past midnight?

The Indomitable DrugS 08-25-2009 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Thanks. Can you provide this in 2 separate stats...one when Alan has a good night's sleep and the other when hes out at the bars past midnight?

I don't have the quality of Postpicker's sources to pull that off.

I'll say this about Garcia though ... he's ridden over 6,200 races in his riding career - and his lifetime ROI is $1.95.

The takeout is a lot higher than 2.5%

Sightseek 08-25-2009 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by postpicker
It is amazing that so many trainers have won at Saratoga but Bruce Levine is 0 for 37, Tom Albatrani is 0 for 25 and Allen Jerkens was 0 for 25 at the meet so far.

The jockey race will be interesting. The key will be Alan Garcia's social life. His gf left town to return to school last wednesday. He went out sat night and was still at the nightclub "The Venue" at 3 am. Then he wasn't riding that great on sunday. He had a good night rest sunday night and he comes back strong monday. If Garcia behaves and keeps his social life under control and doesn't try to womanize, he will win the riding title. But if he goes out a lot, tries to pick up anything with a bra and panties and cleavage and short skirts, like he did during the Keeneland meet (he was 3 for 56 and lost riding priviledges for a major owner because of his after race activities), then Ramon will win the riding title.

Yikes! People go to the Venue?!

parsixfarms 08-25-2009 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Hey Gales, can you tell me why she moved her barns over here this year? Do you have that information? We all know she is the Queen of turf sprints, that comes as no shocker, but her recent success on dirt and longer turf races, does this surprise you?

I think she's won a grand total of two dirt races at this meet, both off-the-turf NY-bred races at 5.5F.

Cannon Shell 08-25-2009 11:52 AM

Not denigrating Linda Rice but the modern Saratoga meeting doesnt have too much in common with the older versions. Exactly how many non NYbred, turf sprints or claiming races has she won?

I know it is blasphemy but the racing quality has really deteroriated.

Linny 08-25-2009 12:27 PM

Linda has had horses in the harness barns and in Roy Lerman's barn on Gridley for several years now. If I were training, I'd like to be back there too. It's a bit off the beaten path and the horses have to walk a bit more to get to and from the track, giving them a bit of a change of pace. Easy access o the gallop track at Clare Court makes it more likely that her horses are building up strength on that deep surface.
Cannon is right. They have run more claiming and condition claiming and turf sprints than ever and it plays to Linda's strengths. That said, alot of the elite type operations that have always thrived here certainly have some stock to dropdown to take advantage and Todd hs a barn full of More Than Ready's that should be winning every grass sprint.

scat daddy 08-25-2009 12:36 PM

The Rice Assistant .....Sam
 
Strange that you see little of Rice until opening day...the behind the scene assistant's (Sam) comes to mind are the real nuts and bolts of this operation. From April 13th on at the Oklahoma this top assistant is out in the morning moving these horses forward.

When Rice is present she is shaking hands and kissing babies most of the time. Did notice her and Garcia yesterday morning bright and early going over the charts and plans after a nice hug from Linda.

The name on the stable is Rice but got a feeling that the help is the real deal and she should be very thankful. Wonder how long it will be before Sam thinks of taking out on her own and possibly a few good owners along with her?

Rice also had a very noticeable limp yesterday in the paddock prior to hooking up with Garcia again,,,and again,,,and again.


Scat Daddy

the_fat_man 08-25-2009 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I know it is blasphemy but the racing quality has really deteroriated.

No ****. But I never thought I'd be reading this in a NYRA faithful forum. :rolleyes:

Linny 08-25-2009 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scat daddy
Strange that you see little of Rice until opening day...the behind the scene assistant's (Sam) comes to mind are the real nuts and bolts of this operation. From April 13th on at the Oklahoma this top assistant is out in the morning moving these horses forward.

When Rice is present she is shaking hands and kissing babies most of the time. Did notice her and Garcia yesterday morning bright and early going over the charts and plans after a nice hug from Linda.

The name on the stable is Rice but got a feeling that the help is the real deal and she should be very thankful. Wonder how long it will be before Sam thinks of taking out on her own and possibly a few good owners along with her?


Rice also had a very noticeable limp yesterday in the paddock prior to hooking up with Garcia again,,,and again,,,and again.


Scat Daddy

I'm sure Linda has a great team but I beg to differ as to her role. I am on the backstrech nearly every day and I see Linda out there all the time. She's at the starting gate 2 or 3 times a week, on the ground and working with the horses. Linda has ALOT of horses and that means relying on good help, and clearly she does. (I don't recall alot of people saying "Seth Benzel trains the horses, Todd shows up to saddle them.")
Linda also spent alot of time up here through the spring nwhile her string was here. Her father is a well known horseman and Linda is like and respected by her owners.

I will grant Cannon's popint that changes in the meet have made it easier for a barn like Linda's to thrive here, but I wont take as a given that her assistant is running the show.

Gander 08-25-2009 01:39 PM

So what is the most logical reason for her much improved stats?

I mean since the people in charge like her (unlike Drugtow and Juice Levine), it cant be cheating, so lets take that out of the equation.

Is it her spotting her horses better? Has her help gotten better? Are things just falling her way? It cant be just Garcia, shes won with other jockeys.
How are such a high percentage of her horses not only winning, but dominating races?

The Indomitable DrugS 08-25-2009 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I know it is blasphemy but the racing quality has really deteroriated.

I agree that turf sprints annoy me and you see too many NY Bred races card - but as for saying the racing quality deteroriated ...

In relation to what track?

Bobby Fischer 08-25-2009 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In relation to what track?

good ol' days downs

Revidere 08-25-2009 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
I'm sure Linda has a great team but I beg to differ as to her role. I am on the backstrech nearly every day and I see Linda out there all the time. She's at the starting gate 2 or 3 times a week, on the ground and working with the horses. Linda has ALOT of horses and that means relying on good help, and clearly she does. (I don't recall alot of people saying "Seth Benzel trains the horses, Todd shows up to saddle them.")
Linda also spent alot of time up here through the spring nwhile her string was here. Her father is a well known horseman and Linda is like and respected by her owners.

I will grant Cannon's popint that changes in the meet have made it easier for a barn like Linda's to thrive here, but I wont take as a given that her assistant is running the show.

I heard Jamie Sanders is helping out

Cannon Shell 08-25-2009 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I agree that turf sprints annoy me and you see too many NY Bred races card - but as for saying the racing quality deteroriated ...

In relation to what track?

In relation to Saratoga.

Turf sprints, NYbreds, condition claimers and maiden claimers dominate most cards.

It wasnt long ago that outside of the 10 or so NYbred races a week you wouldnt see any of these other races at Saratoga.

It has gotten so even 2 yo maiden races on the dirt arent having full fields and we have seen some carded with 6 or 7.

Cannon Shell 08-25-2009 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
So what is the most logical reason for her much improved stats?

I mean since the people in charge like her (unlike Drugtow and Juice Levine), it cant be cheating, so lets take that out of the equation.

Is it her spotting her horses better? Has her help gotten better? Are things just falling her way? It cant be just Garcia, shes won with other jockeys.
How are such a high percentage of her horses not only winning, but dominating races?

Her barn fits the condition book. She has always been great with turf sprinters and has a ton of NYbred sprinters and grass horses.

Cannon Shell 08-25-2009 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
good ol' days downs

Yeah like 3 years ago.


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