Mine that Bird
 

Worked a bullet yesterday morning at Saratoga under Jamie Theriot. Seemed well within himself, they said hes gained some weight and to me looks like hes taking to Saratoga nicely. As of right now, I know its early, hes my pick for the Travers. The only thing going against him is Mike Smith but it looks like the connections had a little talk with him about his premature moves. I think the mile and a quarter will benefit him, he will be able to sit back longer and not have to worry about being close to the pace. Most people fail to realize it takes alot for a horse to get the mile and a quarter. Hopefully he will be a decent price.

I think he's going to win the Travers if Rachel doesn't go.

I'll pass on taking a short price in the Travers with a horse who is a combined 0-for-3 at Sunland and Mountaineer this year.

The horse himself has a history of pre-mature moves.

I thought his Preakness performance was overrated - as he got the dreamiest pace setup of a lifetime - and still managed to only finish 3 lengths in front of Flying Private.. and a half length in front of Musket Man. Both fellow closers a little less aided by the pace. Even Luv Gov and Terrain weren't beaten all that far.

Unless it's a sloppy track like the Derby .. where he exploded to that 105 Beyer .. I'll play against him.

I don't think he'll be as short of a price as you think...But I'm talking less about value on him than thinking he is a likely winner of the race in my eyes.

His trainer has the coolest belt buckle in the world... so I'm obviously picking Mine that Bird based on the belt buckle angle..

I told him good luck in the travers and his response is "thanks we need it"

I would guess he'll be 10-1 in the Travers.

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

Rachel Alexandra almost certainly won't run ... and even if she did ... he still would not be 10/1.

I wouldn't be stunned to see MTB laid at like 9/2 on the ML and get bet down more than people expect.

How are you so sure the pace is going to work out for him? The pace was very fast in the WV Derby and that didn't seem to work out.

I'm not saying he'd be a bad play at 5-1 or so but I am concerned that the wheels are going to come off soon. They gave him very little time to "be a horse" after the Belmont and he sure did look tired in the final quarter at Mountaineer. That was his sixth workout yesterday along with a race in the last seven weeks. The first of those workouts also came only 21 days after the Belmont.

NT

send it in, just send it in, the more the better.

This horse sucks, in the end I said it after the derby its unlikely he wins another major race.

I totally disagree. Where the Derby came from, I don't know but it wasn't a Giacomo like disaster Derby at all. He ran a legit big time race and followed it up with a solid Preakness and Belmont. He isn't an alltime horse but he is much better than people are giving him credit for.

Im envisioning a Concern type of scenario. 10-15 lengths out by the clubhouse turn and uncorking a huge rally late, only MTB is not coming after Holy Bull. He didnt run his "type" of race in the WV Derby or the Belmont for that matter. Poor rides by both jockey's in both of those races. I think coming in here the connection should have the correct gameplan set in stone and if follow should result in a victory.

I feel like he is an average horse who got hot at the right time and will fade as quickly as he came. Giacomo for all he was not, he was consistent from 2-4 years old, Giacomo would have run down Big Drama IMO with that setup.

I don't know why people are so interested in Mine That Bird, he's probably no better than the 5th best 3 yr old colt at the moment. Summer Bird, Munnings, Quality Rd. are better, the best 3 yr old colt is currently not running at the moment and that is The Pampelmousse, surely there are more exciting prospects.

While I agree that he should be given a narrow pass for the WV Derby (even Pt Given narrowly won the Haskell over monsters like Touch Tone) take into consideration that even the horses who he finished in front of in races that played into his hands are not very good. The 2-3-4 finishers in the Derby 0-5since with most of those defeats being quite ugly.

I think the problem with him in the Travers is that he's going to run against current proven commodities like Kensei, horses who have potential like Warrior's Reward (who's a close 2nd to MTB in terms of wretched rides), and a potential monster like Quality Road.

It may not be that he's bad but the water is not as shallow now as it was on Derby day as he got the trip of a lifetime on a track that he loved.

NT

3 races before preakness Jockey rode him wrong, loses to sunland horses

Derby, perfect trip on a sloppy track and he beats the great Musket Man and Pioneer of the nile.

Preakness, again its the jockey who cost him losing with a perfect setup and edging out Musket Man, who aint no quality road.

Belmont, has the lead at the top of the stretch and wilts, again its the jockey

WV, Gets a perfect trip chasing a collapsing horse and comes home in 14 2/5ths and loses but its that dang jockey again.

See a pattern here?

That's why I said I think everything comes together for him this race. No more excuses here. He gets the trip, the ride and the setup and if he doesnt win well then I guess I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. If he wins I walk out of the track with fat pockets.:$:

I would want around 10/1 on that bet though, about the right chance of it happening, maybe 12/1 or so.

He is a decent horse, nothing less, nothing more. The trip at Mountaineer was not really what I would call an ideal trip. He moved WAY too soon.

I don't think a couple hundred bucks will make a difference but yea ill be sending it in @ 5-1

I agree on decent, decent for a grade 1 winning three year old

a "good" horse never loses the belmont or WV race though with bad horses collapsing in front of him.

I don't care if Smith move too early or not. The fact is there was plenty of pace to run at and he couldn't get past Big Drama who was staggering home in 14.5.

Who collapsed in front of him in the Belmont? That race (with that ride) cannot be picked out as one that proves MTB is not a good horse.

NT

ok lets take the borderline derby at sunland (or whatever it was called)

Usually when a horse needs a perfect trip, a perfectly timed ride, the perfect pace scenario, the perfect track...the perfect stars alignment, the perfect whatever....turns out to be not so perfect afterall. He's an okay to good horse, we determined that months ago his derby was not a fluke, actually I determined that the night after the derby but some are quicker than others....usually good horses are one's that overcome imperfect pace and trip scenarios, the fact that he can't really speaks volumes of his true abilty.

Correct, but i am betting on the stars aligning for this horse. I think they get it right here

maybe so, good luck....but arnt there much better investments at 5/1 with a lot less "aligning" needed?

I with you on this. I just have this feeling about MTB in this race with or without RA.

Honestly I really dont think the stars have to align, but if they did that would be great. I think the work yesterday showed alot. He took to the surface tremendously. Hes put on some weight and looks extremely healthy and seems to be feeling pretty damn good too! Dont underestimate the power of Saratoga Racecourse lol. Horse for the course has never rang more true than at Saratoga. Some horses win there and dont win again until the following year when they come back. The ease he worked that bullet sold me on this horse for the Travers.

For what it's worth I think he will like Saratoga more than Mountaineer, I'm just not sure he will be a fair price but who knows we've seen some strange prices at the Spa these 1st 2 weeks, however I won't be banging the door down to bet him. Goodluck if you you have a strong opinion about him.

Right and I say all this thinking I will be getting between 3 1/2 to 5-1. anything around 2-1 to 3-1 ill be spreading my bets around a little bit more. 5-1 everything goes on MTB

i usually put a line through good horses that race at tracks like sunland and especially mountaineer. i do it for keenland POLY now too since it doesn't equate to true dirt form. have you ever seen how mountaineer is configured? they would of been better off at monmouth. that horse had to move early, speed wins everthing at that strip! in my opinion MTB has had two bad rides in a row by two questionable jockeys. borel is great at CD, in ny (other major meets)hes never been much. smith probably felt like he had to be up there, to have any chance! that horse is good. who else came within a closing length of rachel? he needs the proper ride, hes a HARD horse to ride. you get one move at the right time or hes just a board hitter. any one that does not think this horse is good, is nuts. times at that track mean NOTHING. THE ONLY TIME THE TIME MATTERS FOR MTB IS THE FINAL QUARTER IF HES RESERVED FIRST MILE AND AN EIGHTH. HE'LL NEVER WIN RUSHING UP THERE EARLY ON!

So who are the better investments??

Next time I handicap I will give you a couple, is that fair enough?

Yup.

You're an ENIGMA. If the MNR trip is so obviously premature, how could you also not notice the premature move in the BEL?

I think the horse didn't handle the track last race. He's climbing and skipping (switching leads) in the run to the 1st turn like I've never seen him do before (I actually watched all his WO races.)

Give this horse Flatbold's run in the Jim Dandy and see what happens.

QR tackles 1 1/4 for the 1st time and Kensei is looking for another speed favoring setup. Odds of the Jim Dandy AND the Travers going 1-2 (or 2-1) around the track are good, aren't they? :rolleyes:



Thanks to DrugS for pointing out that its the horse (not the jocks) making all those premature moves.

Maybe Im wrong but reading Picking winners 101... It says "" At Saratoga, allways go with the ""Hat"" angle.... Even if your picking winners in the clubhouse !!!!! :D

i didn't like the way he looked in the WVD. Obviously he is very small, but he usually looks ok in the stretch and gallop out, but he appeared to decline physically there.

He is a game little horse and he posses a long drive. He got one of the best derby trips of all time, probably the best. Not only the ground saving trip, but his positioning.
Preakness was a good race, he had a good setup with the chasers collapsing, Rachel was just better although he shortened the margin close to the wire. Belmont he was arguably best, at least there is a fair chunk of probability that he was best. WVD- i just didn't like the way he looked.

Kensai has a lot of horse, and Asmussen is "hot". One of Jackson's favorite horses. We haven't seen his depth since the time he was moved up, it's possible that with a tough race he could crumble or Prado could waste too much horse. If Quality Road sets a conservative pace, that helps Kensei. If someone else goes or if Quality Road gets brave and looms a winning threat entering the stretch - then it could help the closers

He looked pretty bad on the main this morning....