Beyer Questions???????
 

I need a little bit of help regarding the Beyer speed figures....
What exactly does a horse have to do to get a Beyer rating more then 120? Let alone more then a 115??? Quality Road shatters a track record and only gets a 110? Rachel just misses and gets a 116, Fabulous Strike just missed Artax's track record and gets a 111 ( Groovy set the record and gets a 133 or 132).
The highest Beyer the last 2 years is a 120, set by Commentator in the Whitney...which was the slowest Whitney in 42 years. Just doesnt seem right...
Is it just me or are the Beyers getting slower? Records are still falling, training is more advanced...Why are there only 2 Beyers over 115 this year?
According to the DRF the Beyer scale is as follows...

57 +- Bottom level $2,500 claimers at smaller tracks
80 +- A typical $10,000 claimer
90 +- A typical $25,000 claiming race
100 +- Good allowance horse or low grade stakes horse
115 +- The best horses in the country

So....Quality Road is a "Good allowance horse or low grade stake"? Same with Strike...I guess the same with every stakes winner this year...Derby, Preakness, Belmont...Low grade stakes????
And only Rachel and This One's for Phil are the "Best" horses in the country?

Is it possible the claimers, maidens, allowance horses are getting faster?

I look back and see a 128 for Ghostzapper, Groovy gets a 133 and 132, Lava Man 120...

Are we ever going to see a number over 120 again?

Easy.Don't believe everything you read from DRF.

Sounds like the making of a research paper or even a DRF book.

And here I am thinking the Nea Platonists or the Aristotelian commentators (not related to THE Commentator, the horse) were THE most devoted followers in history. But they have nothing on the Beyerites. This is approaching cult status (we're in Epicurus territory now).

This is ****in' amazing. Years from now, people will still be quoting Beyer and following his method. :rolleyes: (Over on other forums, they practically WORSHIP Sartin. There are many over there who invested countless time and money in seminars and books/programs put out by Sartin. Damn, the game is hard to beat but not that hard.:rolleyes: )

It took until the 17th century for a REVOLUTION in science. Yet, here we are 400 years later and so many are still living in the GEOCENTRIC universe of (someone else's) figures. Go figure. :rolleyes:

It's getting harder and harder to keep from falling down everytime I read (or write) some of this stuff.

Times w/o track variant mean absolutely nothing.

Truer words are rarely spoken.

Times without track variant were part of the sport since the beginning of racing.
What happened to the day when a horse ran and we say wow, he ran a 1:13...now the first and only thing we here is "he ran a 110"

So...are we ever going to see a 120 Beyer again?

Remind me, i'll let you borrow a few books that will better help your understanding of the subject.

The race after Quality Road's Amsterdam .. a pair of dead on the board 20K maiden claimers went 1:09 and change.

There are A LOT of questionable figures over the course of a year .. but like Hockey says ... times are worthless without a track variant.

And speed figures are worthless in situations when you feel like you can't trust the variant.

If you slip Andy a quiet $20 he will add a few points to your horses number..if you give Jerry Brown $25 he will subtract -1. I think Sarin is dead.

And speed figures are worthless in situations when you feel like you can't trust the timer.

My :rolleyes: head:rolleyes: is:rolleyes: hurting :rolleyes:

Thanks Doug....still need to answer my question though...Are we going to see another 120 Beyer? What does a horse have to do to get that high of a mark?
You said a pair of dead on the board maiden claimers went 1:09 and change...Is it possible those maiden claimers nowadays are a bit faster then the maiden claimers 20 years ago?
Did Road need to run a 1:12 then?

Rachel should have gotten a 121 on Sunday. They split the variant a couple times even after the rains so she didn't, justified or unjustified remains to be seen.

Yes - you will obviously see another 120

In order to get that high of a mark .. a horse will probably have to be extremely good, probably have to have a favorable trip, and certainly have to run extremely fast in relation to the speed of the racetrack.

Yes it's possible that maiden claimers now a days are faster than 20 years ago. If you look at the Thoro-Graph figures .. claimers now a days are faster than Alysheba. That's why I prefer to use Beyer figures when comparing horses from different generations. They are very solid and consistant over the last 20 years in that regard IMO.

If Quality Road would have run a 120 ... that means Comeback would have had to run an 80 Beyer .. for running 4th in a 20K maiden claimer .. despite having been "pinched back at break. Checked far turn."

Cannon Shell was the former trainer of Comeback .. ask him if he thinks he could run an 80 Beyer on dirt. He ran a 53 and 45 in his two dirt races for him.

I thought you lobbed this softball over the plate nicely for The Fat Man to chime in about how we need Trackus.

Since he didn't bother ... I think all respectable race tracks should get Trackus.

I don't have stacks of stats at my disposal as some here, but I always take Saratoga dirt beyers with abit of salt, it seems to me there have been some abnormally high beyers earned here that cause me to atleast be abit skeptical, I will cite one, sprinter Left Bank and his 121 in the Whitney, I know Commentator has earned close to 120, I'm sure I will be reminded of many more, coincidence or not it seems like some of the higher profile performances are given big numbers.

Pretty sure we'll see another BSF greater than 120.



Pretty sure we won't see another one as good as GZ anytime soon, though...

But, according to most of the board, he is now with the Magical Move-up Mike Maker.

Left Bank's 121 Beyer was fairly cut and dry.

He ran a 121 in his prior start.

2nd place Street Cry ran a 119 in his prior start.

3rd place Lido Palace ran a 113 last time out


He ran 9 furlongs in a track record equaling 1:47 flat.

The only other 9 furlong dirt race of the day was won by Connie's Magic in 1:51.59

Connie's Magic, in victory, ran a mere 44 points less than the time for Left Bank's win.

Connie's Magic returned the following Wednesday to win by 5 lengths and pay $6.70 going nine furlongs. He did so despite breaking from the 11 hole and going 5 wide on both turns. His Beyer was a few points higher than what he got when he won the day he went 4.59 seconds slower than Left Bank for the distance.

Your friend Maker did move him up. He tends to do that.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...ers+understand


I think we could see a 120 Beyer this Saturday.

Did Macho Uno beyer 116 for 4th? If so that seemed somewhat high to me, regardless the Street Cry in the Whitney didn't resemble the one that won the Stephen Foster. That 119 was far more impressive than his second place to LB. It just seems to me the number was high, especially for a stretching out sprinter.

In the Whitney?? Alot more likely that Fab Strike runs one Sunday, and that is very unlikely.

Dont you have a pm for me ?
:)

Macho Uno showed no speed, was never involved, and steadily backed up against a weak field at 3/5 odds in his next start - which was at Arlington. He was toast.

He had run 5 straight Beyers between 110 and 116 coming into that race.

When a horse runs light years below their steady and consistant form ... it's typically a sign that something is wrong, not a sign that they're last race was overrated.

Sometimes horses will recover, sometimes they won't.

Skip Away ran 3 straight Beyers between 112 and 115 - and in his next start was 3rd beaten 7 lengths at 3/5 odds with a 92 Beyer. Isitingood and Spirtbound drilled him at Lone Star Park.

Even though that clearly wasn't the real Skip Away .. he bounced back to his old self... in fact better than his old self .. as if something holding him back a little was found and corrected.

Take a horse like Discreet Cat, who ran a series of 116 Beyer races as a 3yo. He goes to Dubai, gets sick, and is scratched from his prep.

In the World Cup, he shows no speed, breaks last, and finishes last by 23 behind some Turkey and Suadi Arabaian horses. People who don't understand racing think a performance like that is somehow a black mark against his previous races.

In his case, he was toast. They never could get him to do more than run like a high priced claimer after that.

NEVER look at PPs:D

Isn't this why it's hard to take seriously some of these figure-makers' recent hyperbolic claims like Big Brown ran the "fastest" Derby ever?

I always thought Macho Uno was overrated, of the 3 that came out of that BC Juvenile I thought Street Cry was the best horse, his problem was he had problems staying healthy. In the breeding shed he has been the most prolific and we certainly saw glimpes of just how talented he was in the DWC and The Foster. When it comes to Point Given there are always 2 differing views, the most glaring weakness on his record in my mind is he never faced any real competition, he was retired at the time to the ol suspensory injury or something like that, sounded a little dubious to me at the time.

To a degree yes. They have every type of horse getting A LOT faster.

Here is what a Thoro-Graph Kentucky Derby involving every winner since 1986 would look like.

Winner: Big Brown (2008) -4.75 (1st by 5 lengths)

2nd: Barbaro (2006) -2.25 (2nd beaten 5 lengths)

3rd: Street Sense (2007) -2.00 (3rd beaten 5.5 lengths)

4th: Smarty Jones (2004) -1.75 (4th beaten 6 lengths)

5th: Mine That Bird (2009) -0.75 (beaten 8 lengths)

5th: Monarchos (2001) -0.75 (beaten 8 lengths)

7th: War Emblem (2002) -0.50 (beaten 8.5 lengths)

8th: Giacomo (2005) 0.50 (beaten 10.5 lengths)

9th: Funny Cide (2003) 1.50 (beaten 12.5 lengths)

10th: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) 2.75 (beaten 15 lengths)

10th: Silver Charm 2.75 (beaten 15 lengths)

12th: Thunder Gulch 3.50 (beaten 16.5 lengths)

12th: Charismatic 3.50 (beaten 16.5 lengths)

14th: Real Quiet 3.75 (beaten 17 lengths)

15th: Go For Gin 4.00 (beaten 17.5 lengths)

15th: Unbridled 4.00 (beaten 17.5 lengths)

17th: Grindstone 5.00 (beaten 19.5 lengths)

18th: Lil E Tee 5.50 (beaten 20.5 lengths)

18th Sea Hero 5.50 (beaten 20.5 lengths)

20th: Strike The Gold 6.00 (beaten 21.5 lengths)

20th: Alysheba 6.00 (beaten 21.5 lengths)

22nd: Sunday Silence 6.25 (beaten 22 lengths)

23rd: Winning Colors 6.50 (beaten 22.5 lengths

24th: Ferdinand 7.00 (beaten 23.5 lengths)


Basically, if you believe TG, horses have become 20 lengths faster at about all class levels since the days of Alysheba .... the days when Jack Van Berg was king of racing. Now, Jack Van Berg is a hysterically incompetent bum who knows absolutely nothing about training horses ... and consistantly wins at 3% year in and year out.

But yeah, if you want to believe Big Brown is the fastest Derby winner ever.... you also have to believe that Recapture The Glory ran about 10 lengths better while getting pummled - than great horses like Sunday Silence, Alysheba, and Ferdinand did in victory.

I forgot to ask him. I will.

It begs the question "why"?

And it's the same with the Ragozin sheets. A Hall of Fame horse like Holy Bull's top lifetime Ragozin figure was a 2.5 (ironically, not his Met Mile, Travers or Woodward, but the Olympic Handicap as a 4YO). I think three horses in Monday's Amsterdam had figures as low (Quality Road, Everyday Heroes and Capt. Candyman Can), two of whom could never be mentioned in the same conversation as the Bull.

Here's what they say...

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/ge...r%20pt%20I.htm

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/ge...%20pt%20IA.htm

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/ge...r%20pt%202.htm

Sorta makes you want to cry, doesn't it?

If humans improved at these rates we'd be running three minute miles and running the 100 meters in 8 seconds by now.