Travers Buzz: Quality Road a yes..
 

Travers next up for Quality Road
By Mike Welsch

http://www.drf.com/news/article/106086.html

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - On Tuesday morning, Quality Road became the focal point of similar praise following his record-setting performance Monday afternoon in the Grade 2 Amsterdam. While Rachel Alexandra's connections remain noncommittal regarding the Travers, trainer Todd Pletcher confirmed that if all goes well, Quality Road is definitely headed to the midsummer Derby.

Much more at link in Welsch's Saratoga track note piece...

Quality Road in the travers would be one of the biggest bet againsts that I have seen in awhile.

Reason had not run in 4 months prior to the Amsterdam. Then sets a track record(depending on whose final time you look at) going 6 1/2 furlongs. Then going to Come back in 26 days and run a 1 1/4 in the Travers. Thats a very tall order for any horse. thats why he will not be on my tickets.

Mine That Bird in
Summer Bird in
Quality Road in
Rachel Alxeandra ? Come on Steve make this one of the greatest Travers in recent memory. If RA goes that place will break the attendance, weather permiting, record.

It would have such electricity about the place, it would just be insane.

Run Rachel Run

thats a pretty bold stand right there.............personally i still think he's one of the best 3 YO's in the country, and has a pretty solid chance

-bt-

If Rachel doesn't run, is Mine That Bird or Quality Road the favorite?

I would think Quality Road.

I agree with Round Pen. QR wouldnt be a very good bet at what likely will be short odds. Maybe he is some kind of super freak and he wins but it still looks like a very poor bet. I wouldnt bet a horse going 10f for the first time 3 weeks after prepping with a 6.5 furlong sprint. Throw in the fact that it is following an injury and four month layoff and it looks like a strong bet against.

I think Quality Road is the Travers favorite, as I have a feeling Rachael wont go (I hope I am wrong). Wouldnt appeal to me as a betting race because I think Quality Road could win the race, but he will be in the neighborhood of 6/5 without Rachael in there. Now, throw Rachael in there and it becomes a great betting race if you think she is beatable.

I think Rachel Alexandra is a longshot to go in the Travers and that has more to do with Kensei than anything else. The Travers is the logical spot for him and there's no reason for Jackson/Asmussen to run those two against each other.

The buzz at Monmouth after the Haskell was Woodward, which I think would be a terrific place for her to run. It's uncharted territory and gives her a chance to bring some life to the final weekend of the meet.

A Travers lineup that includes the Birds, Kensei, Warrior's Reward, and Quality Road isn't too shabby. I suppose you can throw the vaunted stakes winner Charitable Man in the mix as well.

NT

Agree with you. This guy cruised 9f back in the spring and certainly wasn't pointing at the Amsterdam. There is evidence that the time may not have been legit, and the track was lightning fast, so it's not like the "modest" speed figures (103 Beyer) will point to a big bounce. On the contrary, they may show he's ready to jump again.

Reminds me of that old Ray Milland movie, where a college professor discovers a liquid that repels when around wood and uses it to fashion a (short) career as a pitcher. He pretty much runs out of it for his final game, however.

It appears that Pletcher has found some of that Lawyer Ron elixir laying around. Would be interesting to see what kind of run QR puts in in the Travers. Stretchout not an issue, in this case.

I am surprised that more people haven't talked about the Amsterdam being a possible workout for the Travers. Trainers use races all the time to get their horses fit and maybe he needed an actual race to get him primed...

The difference is that Quality Road was a good horse before Pletcher got him. Lawyer Ron was a wayward minor graded stakes competitor.

I've always subscribed to the theory that Lawyer Ron needed a stronger rider and a more relaxed regimen and he got that moving to Pletcher's barn.

NT

Assuming QR took care of business in the Travers, and RA did so in the Woodward, they could always meet in the JCGC. Unlike the terminally boring connections of Zenyatta, the players in these camps are not going to be afraid of making it happen.

The Woodward is the logical spot for her, especially given Kensai, who needs an opportunity to pump up his value as a stallion. If Pletcher is so all fired hot to have QR meet her, he can show up there, too. I really fail to see why, given her accomplishments to date, RA is obligated to go anywhere for anybody at this point. If she runs in a race that is absolutely open to anybody--fillies and colts--3YO and up--she is taking on all comers. What the hell more do you want? It is the others who are not taking up the gauntlet. She is the leading candidate for HOY right now. If somebody else wants it they can come to her or (probably, if they are named QR, Zenyatta and maybe Einstein) go win the BC Classic.

Yeah that and every seemingly decent horse from his crop getting hurt or retiring after their three year old year. The older horse crop in his 4 yo year was hardly stellar.

Quality Road has proved his quality. Couldnt this be considered a6.5f work, preping for the Travers? If it was just a work, some would say it was perfect work 26 days out and now they would just work on his conditioning.

Stronger rider? He ate Johnny V up in the race at BEL (against Curlin).

Here's the deal with Pletcher (and Johnny V):

when his horses win with those ridiculous WIDE, NO COVER trips, then they're strongly handled and reveling in the 'relaxed regimen'

when they collapse, like typical horses would, as a result of these trips

it must be that they're not getting the strong handling or reveling in the relaxed regimen

For a good example of how horses typically run with the patented Johnny V trip (when not riding for Pletcher) check out any of Patrick Husbands' rides up at WO. And I do mean, 'ANY'.

That certainly didn't hurt. You were too generous, though, the 4YOs with Lawyer Ron were atrocious.

The Super Derby is a perfect example of what changes Lawyer Ron needed as his tin man jockey can do nothing as he attempts to run off only to be caught late by Strong Contender, who was given a day pass out of John Ward's barn.

NT

McKee didnt help the horse for sure

Lawyer Ron was headstrong no matter what but he was certainly more relaxed for Pletcher and JV. The two races LR ran at Saratoga remain somewhat enigmatic given that he was perfectly tractable and did whatever JV wanted with the typical JV trip.

To get back to your original point though, there's no magic elixir being given to QR in my opinion because he was already good.

NT

This remains to be determined, given his performance in the Travers. How much better did he project after the FD than Dunkirk?

2006 derby field tells the story pretty well.
Barbaro- injured, deceased
Bluegrass Cat- retired
Steppenwolfer- plodder that never moved forward at 4
Jazil- plodder that never moved forward at 4
Brother Derek- injured, retired
Showing Up- moved to turf, turned into a beast
Sweetnorthernsaint- never got back to his 3yo spring form
Deputy Glitters- fell apart after ok Ohio Derby
Point Determined- ?
Seaside Retreat- turned out ok in Canada
Storm Treasure- turned out ok as a turf horse
Lawyer Ron- transferred, freaked
Cause to Believe- ?
Flashy Bull- never ran fast races but found ways to win a few big races, turned out ok
Private Vow- ?
Sinister Minister- only ran a couple times in Cal, not well
Bob and John- ?
AP Warrior- retired
Sharp Humor- injured, retired
Keyed Entry- headcase sprinter

Okay, so call it a work. You want to bet a 3 year old that has never been 10f coming off an injury layoff of close to 5 months off of works?

This is no indictment of the horse's talent. I just don't see how he could be ready.

This used to be the way almost all horses were prepped off of layoffs

How is what Quality Road doing any different from the long line of fillies that used to prep for the Alabama in the Test (aside fom the fact that he'll get 26 days to recover instead of only nine)?

both of you guys just said "used to".

Chuck, you are the trainer. What is your opinion on the horse being ready?

So cause it worked on great horses in the past it can't work on horses today? I don't question whether Quality Road will be fit for 10 furlongs, I just question whether he is a 10 furlong horse to begin with.

For anyone that is looking forward to betting against Quality Road you should be really pissed at the Beyer people right now for using their handheld time instead of the official time to give him a 103 figure instead of a 119. Can you imagine how much more money he would have drawn coming off a 119?

Quality road is a quality horse under the care of a quality trainer with the riding services of a quality jockey. There is no reason to believe this horse, who had a quality return to the races on Monday, will perform poorly in a quality race like the Travers on a quality track like Saratoga.

With quality weather?

NT

[quote=parsixfarms]How is what Quality Road doing any different from the long line of fillies that used to prep for the Alabama in the Test (aside fom the fact that he'll get 26 days to recover instead of only nine)?[/QUOTE


THat has Nothing to do with it now it might if all those fillies came off of a 4 month layoff in the test.

I do as well. I hope they run Rachel. It will be an exciting race. I doubt they will however. I am sure Jackson/Assmussan will put Kensei in as Rachel probably has less to prove in their eyes. It sure would be fun. But in response to Serlings Twitter question, I still don't think I will go to the track just for that race unless I get invited again.

A quality comment Mr. Pants!

I don't know what to think of Quality Road at 10f. His Florida Derby performance was certainly impressive, but there really didn't seem to be any clues to me in that race one way or the other regarding how he would like the extra furlong. I never really like Elusive Quality's stretching out past 8.5, but memories of Smarty Jones and Raven's Pass make me wonder if I'm just flat out wrong about that. The dam is bred to run all day.
He's a tough one to figure, but he has enormous talent and I actually like the sprint/route angle off a layoff. If the race was 9f, I think he'd be really tough. At ten....I just don't know.

Totally agree.

Assume the horse wasn't fit. Then you have to deal with it running that monster effort and needing one?:rolleyes:

But someone needs to explain to me how blazing 6.5F gets him fit to run 10F.

He probably has enough natural speed for 10F, so I don't get having to tighten him up or put some speed into him. There's still the stamina factor.

I think that NYRA will step up and do the 'right' thing for the Travers: soup up the track, get it favoring frontrunners, and anticipate some 'monster' efforts from the kickback specialists.

If you add the track bias factor to the 'tightner' and the 'elixir' factors, you have a formula for certain success.:rolleyes:

There is no reason why he couldnt be ready. Pletcher rarely runs a short horse in any case. Obviously if the foot becomes an issue of any sort, that changes everything.

Trainers stopped doing it because somewhere along the line horses werent allowed to lose and were supposed be ready to fire their best shot every time.

Stop it.

There is no way he would have ever got a 119 if they used the final time ... which was consistant with how every 6.5f race at last years meet was timed.

You really think that if they accepted the final time .. they still would have had two dead on the board 20K MCL'ers both running an 86 Beyer in the next race?

They have the 4th place finisher in that race jumping up 30 points and running a gigantic new top in career start number 7 while having trouble in multiple spots.

You make it sound as if this horse was out of training for four months. In reality, it was closer to four weeks. He had 5-6 works heading into the Amsterdam. This horse has back distance foundation, having won the Florida Derby at 9F. Fitness should not be an issue.

I still say fitness wll be an issue and I will make a strong stand against him at the the Windows. THe last 1/4 mile will be his undoing hey but if I am wrong I will be the first to say I was.