Silverbulletday VS Rachel Alexandra through Aug of 3yo season
 

2-year-old races:

Silverbulletday: 6-for-7 Top Beyer: 104

RA: 3-for-6 Top Beyer: 99


3-year-old races:

Silverbulletday: 7-for-8 Top Beyer: 115 Avg Beyer 104.75

RA: 7-for-7 Top Beyer: 116 Avg Beyer: 106.71



Sprint Races:

Silverbulletday: 3-for-4 Top Beyer 87

RA: 2-for-4 Top Beyer 85


Route Races:

Silverbulletday: 10-for-11 Top Beyer: 115 Avg Beyer: 103.64

RA: 8-for-9 Top Beyer: 116 Avg Beyer: 103.33


Overall Record:

Silverbulletday: 13-for-15 (12 Graded Stakes wins. 4 Grade 1 wins)

RA: 10-for-13 (7 Graded Stakes wins. 4 Grade 1 wins)


Almost identical body of work in every way to this point.

Silverbulletday felt the strain of that tough campaign and all the Baffert training .. she won the Grade 1 Gazelle easily in Sept giving away a bunch of weight .. but her figures were tailing off just slightly and the older mares she'd run into were a beastly fast group at the time.

Rachel Alexandra doesn't have to worry about any beastly fast group of older horses .. and her form is surging forward somewhat and doesn't seem likely to tail off.


Still ... Rachel Alexandra's accomplishments are very comparable with SBD's to this stage of their careers.

Accomplishments or Beyer figures?

Sure, their graded stakes tallies may be similar and their Beyers may be similar but based on accomplishments they are vastly different in my opinion.

NT

Well put. Against who matters. As does fractions faced.

I think SBD and the second best 3YO filly that year avoided each other--Excellent Meeting, both trained by Baffert. They did go head to head in the BC as 2YOs, however.

Did SBD ever race against colts? I don't think so. Nor do I recall her winning a race against older fillies (but my memory could be suspect). But she danced every dance against fillies of her generation.

Silver Bullet Day did race against the boys in the Belmont, 4th I think.

Yes - in fact - she is the single reason why Charismatic didn't win the triple crown.

As he dueled head to head with her the whole way and pinned her inside - and it helped that Stephen Got Even made a premature middle move in the Belmont.

Silverbulletday's Belmont was as good an effort as RA's Preakness ... and RA ran five lengths better than anyone else in her Preakness win.

Why - you think Silverbulletday faced better fillies and better colts? .. I'd obviously agree that she did.

However, you can't take away from the quality of RA's performances.

I forgot that Belmont. I remember Excellent Meeting in the prior two TC races but lost that one, thanks.

Tough call. I'd lean towards Rachel but not by a whole lot.

On a side note, when thinking of Rachel's Preakness effort vs. SBD's Belmont effort, it makes me think of Winning Colors' Preakness. That was one of the best performances I've ever seen from a filly. When you consider the quality of the horse (Forty Niner) that tried to take her out of her game and how she put him away and still held for third, it was very good.

I actually was just thinking if you could say that the trio of Rachel, Zenyatta and Goldikova are the best group of fillies/mares that have ever been racing at the same time (I guess you could argue that the Zarkarva, Zenyatta and Goldikova trio is a push depending on how you weigh the Zarkarva v. Rachel debate) but have we ever seen the female division this loaded at the top?

Don't you have to go back to Miesque, Winning Colors and Personal Ensign to even find anything close?

I didn't realize Dreams Gallore was that good. Or the Happy Hopper, Marley Vale and the rest of the horses Silverbulletday beat.

You may not think much of who Rachel Alexandra has beaten this year, but her two wins against males are both better than any of Silverbulletday's wins up to August 1, 1999. The idea that Rachel's Preakness is on par with Silverbulletday's Belmont seems silly to me.

Of course it also remains to be seen if Rachel will suffer the same abrupt decline SBD did when she became Roza Robata and Lu Ravi's whipping girl.

NT

Those fillies are light years better than the fillies RA has faced ... and they aren't even among the three or four best SBD faced. Kind of amusing you left out Excellent Meeting and Three Ring.

Who are the ok fillies RA has faced? Besides Sara Louise anyway.


By the way, Excellent Meeting and Three Ring both were as good or better than Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, or Musket Man.

Horses like Charistmatic, Stephen Got Even, Lemond Drop Kid, and Menifee were all light years better than any male RA has ever faced.

You don't remember Silverbulletday's Belmont?

She basically dueled head-to-head with Charismatic (a sharp horse off of 3 straight wins) through a vicious 1:36 2/5th mile . while pinned down inside.

Stephen Got Even - a horse who ran a 120 Beyer and is probably best known for siring champion 2yo Stevie Wonderboy and ML Derby favorite I Want Revenge - he made a middle move to ensure both SBD and Charismatic could take no breather.

After 10 furlongs, Silverbulletday was still down inside fighting for the lead in a time equal to about a 110 Beyer. She did falter late from the pressure at a distance beyond her best.

Menifee, who is no bum at all, was kept up close to the pace and was so out of gas that he finished 7.5 lengths behind SBD but still beat several lesser horses home.

In Menifee's very next start, he once again was kept close to the pace - and he won the Haskell over that years Breeders Cup Classic winner.

Only a moron can watch Silverbulletday's race in the Belmont and not see that it was VERY impressive.

She single handedly saved the sport from Lukas winning a triple crown with a former claimer ... and she ran out of her mind through pressure from good horses for just over 10fs before understandably quitting.

If you don't think her race was good ... you probably think Menifee is a mere allowance horse who should have been 60/1 in the Haskell.

I should probably correct that.

Munnings has sprint races that fit with those horses.

Why did Silverbulletday scratch out of the Preakness?

I left out Excellent Meeting and Three Ring because she didn't face them as a 3YO. I'm not denying that SBD's accomplishments as a 2YO were far superior to Rachel's but I think Rachel's 3YO accomplishments vs. SBD's 3YO accomplishments give her the edge overall.

NT

Because she won the Black Eyed Susan the day before?

And did so with a higher figure than Charismatic got for winning the Preakness ... but she pretty much got no real pressure on the front end and won under a moderate hand ride.

That is the reason why Chris Antley couldn't let Silverbulletday have her way on the lead in the Belmont. Tough luck for him than Stephen Got Even didn't let him and the filly catch a mid-race breather.

If SBD doesn't run in the Belmont, Charismatic would have certainly won the triple crown.

In fact, the way Charismatic ran that day ... there's a good chance he might have won the triple crown if he didn't press SBD but kept a close eye on her and wore her down in the final furlong.

I've seen bad horses like Da Tara run big in the Belmont though when allowed to have it all there own way .. you can't blame him for taking the fight to her and pinning her.

True ... but I compared their careers through Aug of age 3 .. not just the 3-year-old seasons.

Attach the chart for this race, if you have it. I'd like to see what it looks like.

Didn't she opt out of the Preakness because she drew post 14?

Well, that might have had a little something to do with it.

Even though 9.5 furlongs is a perfect distance for her and 12fs isn't .. it would have been tough to win a race like the Preakness on just 24 hours rest.

I'm just glad she saved us from a Lukas triple crown winner.

We can agree on that one.

The crop of fillies that had Lakeway, Inside Information, Heavenly Prize, Sardula, and even Phone Chatter (who was never the same after the injuries she incurred during her BC Juvie filly win) was as good a group as I've ever seen.

Lakeway at 2: 1 for 1 Beyer: 92 (109.26 debut)


Lakeway at 3: 5 for 6 Top Beyer: 117 Avg Beyer: 104.83

Her lone loss was a hard fought second to the hugely underrated Sardula in the Kentucky Oaks over a miserable track.

Her three year old debut was on Jan. 08 in a nw1x allowance. The splits were 22.67, 45.14, 109.16 and the final time was 121.34! Her BSF was a 103.

Compare that to Cardmania's race two races earlier on the card, which had splits of 22.12, 44.64, 110.86 and the final time was 121.23! His BSF was a 106. Keep in mind that it was Cardmania that had just won the Breeders Cup Sprint just two months prior.


Lakeway 2 for 2 Top Beyer: 103


Lakeway: 4 for 5 Top Beyer 117 Avg Beyer: 105.2


Lakeway: 6 for 7 (4 Graded Stakes wins. All 4 were Grade 1).

Lakeway had a far tougher crop than either of these other two and had the handicap of being trained by one of the all time butchers, Gary Jones. Her two last races before being sacrificed by Jones (she nearly died after running sick in the Alabama) were two races for the ages.

In the Mother Goose she set fractions of 23.14, 45.35, 108.65, 133.54 and the final time an amazing 146.58. In second, 4.5 back was the decent filly Cinnamon Sugar with future superstar filly Inside Information another six back in third.

Next, in the Hollywood Oaks, she was on or near the lead with fractions of 23.62, 46.99, 110.08, 134.28 with the final time in 146.93. That makes her last three fractions of 23.09, 24.20 and a final furlong in 12.65. In this race she avenged her lone defeat in the Kentucky Oaks by trouncing Sardula by 4, with like another 15 lengths back to third. The Beyer? 117.

I think we'd be all very hard pressed to find a three year old filly that could do what she did up to this point.

She had big races for sure.

That's all you can come up with?

How about this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BkTYYL15G0

Yeah, she was near death the day after this race.

I was a huge fan of SBD, and vividly remember standing at Churchill when she was asked to run in the Oaks and being awestruck at how easily she cruised past the front runners. I'll always believe she would have won that Derby, and was mad that Baffert entered the wrong filly in the wrong race.

With that said, Rachel has done more to this point by virture of going where no other fillies dared. While SBD could have (would) won the Derby or Preakness, Rachel did win the Preakness. SBD's wins that followed were very impressive, but RA stepped out again to take the Haskell vs the colts by open lengths.

Either way you want it, they are the two best 3yo fillies I've seen in my 20 years of closely following the sport.

Beating "the boys" is nice, but I'm not sure how many "points" it earns her in a comparison with Silverbulletday because the boys she beat weren't exactly outstanding. Just because they're colts, doesn't mean they're good.
She obviously can't control who she faces, but if injuries hadn't gotten in the way, and she had won a race like the Preakness or the Haskell with horses like I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and The Pamplemousse entered.....well that would be a very different story.

On the whole I think the two are pretty close if you compare their careers up to this point which is a complement - not an insult - to Rachel's career. Given the dip that Silverbulletday took after this point in her career, RA certainly has the talent to move well past her in terms of a total career.

In honor of SBD's induction, Crist posted her lifetime PP's on his blog:

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

What about Zenyatta versus Silverbulletday :D

With Beyer figs being a so called measurement, does this mean Rock and Roll's 121 makes him one of then greatest horses of all time?

Only to a complete and utter moron.

Rock and Roll's 121 came with an uncontested early lead - over a sloppy speed favoring Belmont Park race track. He won by 14 lengths under just 112lbs in track record time. Getting 8.5 furlongs in 1:39 2/5ths.

Simply, that number only means that when Rock and Roll is allowed to loaf on an uncontested early lead under 112lbs over a sloppy speed favoring track - he's capable of beating a lot of outstanding horses. Assuming those outstanding horses don't have the speed to press him - or have jockeys who give R&R a free pass on the lead.

The horse who ran 2nd to him beaten 14 that day was 2nd by 5 to the very good Coronado's Quest less than a month later.

It really would take monumental stupidity to suggest that final time speed figures are not the best overall measurement when comparing horses from different time periods throughout the last 15 years or so.

To suggest that they aren't even a measurement at all is something you'd expect to hear from Sumitas when he's on PCP.

Which is why I bring it up. Anyone that uses Beyer figs to compare who is the better horse is a moron. Each race is unique, no two races are run the same. To use Beyer figs as any type of comparision between horses, especially great horses, is a disservice to the horse. While Easy Goer had the consistently higher Beyer figs, Sunday Silence had the 3 - 1 record over him in 1989. You want to compare Rachel and SBD, don't use the Beyer figs, just look at their record and accomplishments on track.

Final time figures - like Beyer figures - simply tell you how fast the race was run.

To suggest being able to run fast isn't important is laughable. And if someone can't analytically factor the circumstances of a race with how fast a horse ran ... they're simply not a very good handicapper.


Disservice to a horse? Just use their record and accomplishment on track?

That is the kind of stupidity that gets Favorite Trick voted horse of the year over Skip Away.

It's the same kind of stupidity that made people insist Stardom Bound was way better than Rachel Alexandra.

It's the same kind of stupidity that made bettors bet Justwhistledixie to favortisim over Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks future pool in late March.

Here I am saying Rachel Alexandra is the best 3yo in the country - male or female - back in Mid Feb. after she won the ungraded Martha Washington Stakes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P007YXgCvE


You have a filly who was 3-for-6 as a 2yo, with just one stakes win - and just won a 50K stake against bums in her 3yo debut...

Are you supposed to pretend that she's somehow not as good as Stardom Bound .. because Stardom Bound is a champion who won 5 straight Grade 1 stake races? Like that means anything at all.

Rachel Alexandra's Golden Rod was unarguably the best two turn route race by a 2yo last year - male or female.

In the Martha Washington, she ran 3.5 lengths faster than Eight Belles did when EB won that race by a pole the prior year. AND .. unlike Eight Belles, Rachel Alexandra came into that race off of a layoff for a trainer who's not a very good layoff trainer.

But yeah, it's a disservice to Stardom Bound and her amusing 5 straight Grade 1 wins and championship .. to say that she's inferior to a horse (RA) who is unquestionably open lengths better than Eight Belles.

Think this one through a little bit. By your half baked theory .. Stardom Bound and her 5 straight Grade 1's and championship in 7 lifetime races drowned Rachel Alexandra's much more modest resume through her first 7 races.

In my half baked theory I would never have said Stardom Bound is "superior" to RA because with my own eyes I can see how Starbom Bound was regressing and RA was moving forward. As we all know, 2 year old form doesn't always translate to 3 year old form. We can argue for or against who deserves awards, HOY, who is better etc. and we all have some validity. I'm just saying, Beyer figs or any type of figs in general shouldn't be used as a major source of comparision between horses. BTW, I wouldn't have made Justwhistledixie the favorite in Oaks future wagering either, that was probablty made by the West Point owners.

So we are supposed to ignore how fast horses run when comparing horses?

Heck - if race record and accomplishment is all that matters ... we're even supposed to ignore a hell of a lot of other handicapping factors that are far more important than race record and accomplishment.

I don't blame people who bash final time figures from a betting standpoint - because they're priced into the odds .. and sometimes figuremakers get them wrong. However, when comparing horses from the last two decades ... there is without question no better starting point than asking 'how fast is the horse .. and how were his figures earned.'