6/26: BEL (P4); CD ($33k C/O); PrM (Stakes/P4)
 

Fun afternoon of racing at Belmont finished up OK with modest $230 P4 hit that covered the day's investment adequately. On top nightcap winner I've Got Speed also keyed a similar payoff for the $1 Super. Missed the early P4 though, a chalky $50 sequence, when stupidly overlooking the KMc baby Dahlgren Chapel. Hope you did well on a good prequel to another big Friday night of racing with Belmont (Twilight card), Churchill (Night card and $33k C/O), Prairie Meadows (3yo Stakes card) and Hollywood (Late night card) keeping you busy from 3pm-1:30am EST!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th (5:32pm): NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 A Word to the Wise 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #2 Saarlandisourland 5-2 WON
Next Best: #7 World Express 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Lyrical Bobcat 15-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

A very difficult group with potential for 'jump-up' horses..

Most Likely: #2 Chinese Whisper 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hot Pace 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Alabama Man 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Triple Honor 10-1 5th


8th: The Perfect Sting, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Strike the Bell 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Dynaslew 7-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Dame Ellen 4-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Fast Tigress 5-1 6th


9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

CANCELLED

Most Likely: #5 Tobruk 5-1
Best Value: #10 Munition 12-1
Next Best: #2 Woodrunner 7-2
Super Add: #7 Puregoodniss 20-1


<$75 P4 Play:

Very challenging sequence..

6: 2-3-7
7: 2-7-10-11
8: 6-10
9: 2-5-10

3x4x2x3 = $72



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th (7:29pm): ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fortheboysatthebar 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Quiet Alice 9-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Alley Theater 4-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Suz Slew 5-1 5th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Five Plus Five 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Oscar De La Thorn 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 McTapit 8-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Missaintbehavin 15-1 9th


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Feminine Flair 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Hyper Hannah 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 See the Future 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Turn to Bernstein 4-1 10th
High 5 Play: #7 How Regal 10-1 4th


7th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Candid Image 4-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Charlie V 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 My Little Connor 2-1 5th
Super Add: #6 An Heir of Magic 9-5 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 2-4-9
5: 1-2-3-5-6-7-9-11
6: 3-5-8
7: 4-5

3x8x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 .50 Pick 4 (4-1-8-4) Paid $243.15


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Son of a Chief 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Checksandbalances 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Essence of Speed 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Ksar Ghilane 5-2 3rd


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Autry 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Captain Bayne 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 All West 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Matching Whites 5-1 6th


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Blue Whistler 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Tar Beach 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Miro 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Zion 5-1 3rd


11th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #12 Capt Obvious 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Begriff 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Baku Breeze 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 John Kelly 9-2 WON
High 5 Play: #1 Option 8-1 9th


<$75 P6 Play:

6: 8
7: 3-4-5-6
8: 3-4
9: 1-5-8
10: 3-7
11: 6-12

1x4x2x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-4-5-7
9: 1-5-8
10: 2-3-5-6-7
11: 6-12

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75



PRAIRIE MEADOWS


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: 16th Saylorville, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Lady Chace 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Miranda Diane 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Sly Storm 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Adhsilver 8-1 5th


8th: 11th Iowa Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Peach Brew 5-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Sweet Relish 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Hooh Why 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Hightap 4-1 WON


9th: 11th Iowa Derby, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 MOONPORT 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Duke of Mischief 10-1 WON
Next Best: #9 His Greatness 5-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Proceed Bee 9-2 5th


10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y

Most Likely: #5 Karl's Speed Demon 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Service Hawk 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Richard entry 2-1 2nd/4th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-8
8: 2-4-5-7
9: 6-7
10: 1-4-5

3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve

I kind of like Oscar De La Thorn too. Those two 5F works should give her a fitness edge, and the horse she's been working with - Pops Lady V. - would probably fit with these (she's 3, though) even though she's an 8 time maiden $12.5K claimer.

Bartletts appears loose in the 7th (unless Alabama Man decides to go). He's a quitter but he should be a decent price.

I had $50 wp on the 6

Going nuts. This day is the worst.

i had a $10 P3 to hit with the 6, just love this game.:zz:

I needed the 6 badly too. Stay focused... LONG NIGHT TO COME.

again thanks steve for your east coast picks, you really help me. i did do a $10 back wheel 2,8,10/6 in the exactas, so that helped. Hollywood is a good track for you, dont forget their P4s. good luck, AZ Dave

The dam is 2 for 3 with firsters and the sire is 18%.

Not bad.

Anyone know why they cancelled the last race today?

Frustrating day for sure, but got out nicely and then some on New Yawker, thank you Andy. It was a race I had absoluely no intention of playing, no strong opinions on and cashed a really nice ticket. The horse that screwed me out of a nice score was Green Harbor. I needed her to win for the 2nd into the 3rd double (many times). Liked La Concerto but didnt play her straight up :(

A violent thunderstorm with low lightning came it, it was pretty bad. They almost got the card in, but fell just short.

Noticed you were on fire and played the 7th accordingly. Muchos gracias, Senor Byk.

Way to conquer the mid pk4, Steve...congrats!:tro:

I'm rolling with a modified Pick 4. Steve's top 3 choices in the first 3 and top 2 in the last.

Just back from dinner in Glens Falls... What did I miss? :o

AzD,

My pleasure... Nice work utilizing Strike the Bell. I was stunned that she got caught. Passed on HOL tonight with the PrM Stakes action looking interesting.

G/L this weekend!

Nice! Told you to stay the course. Long night. Many rivers to cross...

Thx buddy! WAs fortunate to get that Ramsey-Maker winner home.

Just crossed the Missouri river right there. Good start.

How about that?

FYI all.. Crazy overlay at PrM for the Saylorville right now... #5 Adhsilver 25-1 which is psycho as #1 P.S.U. Grad being bet like iron (7-5!)...

NYRA rewards still has ML odds posted, can someone update if the odds are still overlaid on Adhsilver?

Borel/Borel, who pulled one off last Friday, being hammered here in the CD 9...

Currently 15-1 with 7 MTP

Thank you, Gus. $20W 5. Good Luck!

And dropping. Unfortunately with $13,000 in the win pool we are making a legitimate dent.

PSU Grad is insanely overbet in the Place Pool.

Wow, that 3 almost got there.

just back from dinner. rode the byk train for the cd p4. BIG THANKS STEVE. good luck to those alive in the late p4.

Wow these Friday nites at CD are Fun. Look at you Steve , Rock N Rollin Again ! You've already hit the Early P-4 & are alive in the late P-4 & P-6. :tro:
I only have a few meager P-3's going , but the nite has been OK :) :

Churchill Downs 8 1 P3 2,4,5,WT,5,8,WT,7,8 Open Cost $12.00 06/26/09 21:30 050414205198XXX

Churchill Downs 9 1 P3 5,7,WT,7,8,WT,1,6,12 Open Cost $12.00 06/26/09 22:08 56094235993XXX

OUCH, F. Jara runs Calvin down :(

Steve, I hope you have a backup on the pk6 with the 6 on it, this has been some roll. Pat and I split your pk4 and pk6, even 5/6 will pay here. Let's take this home!

Ever since Jara has been back from Panama, he's been riding well at AP and CD tonight.

Steve, nice run - It's almost like having a no hitter in the 8th inning. Bring home the 5/6.
Congrats on the PK4

I always liked the kid. He rode Invasor, Jazil in the Belmont :confused: Right ?

Yep, before being exposed in the Big Apple. Those that follow NY racing on a daily basis would give a better answer on how he struggled there. He's young and has every chance to get to the top tier in the jockey colony. Having won a BC Classic and Triple Crown race never hurts the confidence.

Nice, There's a lot of talent there. :tro:

Gonna try the #12 here 8-1 , 2MTP

Struggled is putting it nicely. It was brutal.

Steve, nice go at it, tough getting the first 4 twice in the last few days only to have it go down, but you are on top of things and on the verge of a breakthough. The 12 put in a hell of an effort and was making ground every step of the way, it sucks that the only horse that could take that down did.

I can always depend on Leparoux and Wilkes to bring me back to Earth. It helped that the horse was a huge sissy. Perfect.

Tough way to end CD, and just saw the stunningly weak P4 will pays at PrM and am going to sleep.

Unbelievable... $29 horse in the sequence and the P4 only pays substancially to the 2-3. My play uses 1-4-5... :rolleyes:

Curious how big the pool was...

1-144.90
2-1059.60
3-1130.25
4-190.45
5-178.45

Yeah I was shocked at the will pays.

Good news is this hanging rat might get put up 1st at Hollywood. That'd be nice for me.

Them Calder horses are the toughest.

Real low on the PK4 payouts

It was with you today that I talked the winner up, no?

YEP

P4 pool just under 17K