Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1
 

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

His thinking is that the public will dismiss a horse like the Tin Man, who hasnt beaten top fields like this too often. He is old and extremely lovable. If I dont have a bet on someone else I will be rooting for him.

I happen to agree with the oddsmaker and think these odds will hold up, maybe 8/1 on the Tin Man but certainly not much lower.

Cacique and English Channel are two very awesome horses right now who never fail to fire and keep the very best competition.

The Tin Man has won every race that he's run in since he came back off the layoff with the exception of the $2 million Dubai race where he ran 2nd to David Junior. He's been running in nothing but Grade I and Grade II races and he's won all of them except for his 2nd place finish to David Junior in the Grade I $2 million Dubai race.
David Junior would be the favorite in this race.

he is smoking something....he is probably trying to sway the public as arlington look at the ML as gospel..

You think Tinny is live?

Didnt David Junior beat him by many lengths and couldnt it have been even more?

He's been unbeatable since he's come back with the exception of his 2nd place to finish to David Junior. If he runs the way he's been running, he's got to be the horse to beat.

I think he beat him by about 2-3 lengths but David Junior is one of top few best turf horses in the world.

David Junior might be the best. He has actually beaten Ouija Board at Sandown.

In addition, I think that The Tin Man went off at about 3-1 in that big race in Dubai. If he's going off at 3-1 in there, he's not going to be 10-1 in the Arlington Million. There is no great horse in the Million this year. There are some very good horses but there's no super star. I actually expected to The Tin Man to be the favorite.

No way, The midwest Pletcher steam and the euro's are guaranteed to take action. Everyone in these midwest tracks want to tell their friends that they had the Pletcher horse that won today yadda yadda.

I am looking forward to seeing the sheets for this race. I know Tin is just as quick as the others, so might get some serious value in the pick threes with him

What's the pace scenario? Tin Man loves to sit up front through easy fractions and keep on going.

That VERY well could happen in this race. It could be a Silvano type year

I bet he will be bet way down, but English Channel will still be the favorite. I expect that The Tin Man will be the second choice at something like 4-1, and that just means I'll get the winner (Cacique) at a nice third choice price of something like 9-2. :D

I suspect that if you put together a fair odds line for this race, no horse would be lower than 5-1. It's hard to separate Cacique, English Channel, and the Tin Man. Ace is not far behind them, and there are several other horses that have a shot.

It's easy to think 4-1 or 9-2 looks good until you try to put reasonable numbers on the other horses' chances. This is especially true in an 11-horse field.

--Dunbar

i think most everyone would love to see the tin man win, for sentimental reasons for many of us. it sure wouldn't break my heart if he won, altho i do like english channel.

Well the San Marcos does look like it turned out as a "Key" race: 3 returning stakes winners, and 2 returning stakes places. I do think he's a level or two below the top contenders, though.

With regard to the Dubai race where The Tin Man ran 2nd, I meant to say it was a $5 million race, not a $2 million race.

I tend to not favor what happens in Dubai that much quite honestly. While the money is unbeatable, you just don't know what you are getting when you come back...Not saying this is in reference to The Tin Man, but in general

The Tin Man is always a great horse to have in a turf race cause he can wire a good field. He can win up front, and even if he does not, the others will have to work and not take their jolly time like many of the Euro races. Imo horses like this makes wagering on turf more fun.

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.

I think he is a better horse now. If I remember correctly he just ran off and got swallowed. He has learned.

No he ran second all the way around and was passed by five horses in the stretch. I'm looking at the PP's.

I agree with you that horses are often not the same after going to Dubai. But with The Tin Man they gave him a 3 month rest and he came back and won at Hollywood Park. So I would have to assume that he he came out of the trip alright.

You gotta give him a little chance, M. Smith was on him last time at Arlington...that is when he was an immediate toss.....

Also, I am going to be taking a HEAVY look at Touch of Land. PVal did not fit this guy when he came here last time and I remember him making a MONSTER move last year only to get into some trouble. I like how the jock is coming here also, just a thought

I think he should be 10-1 against these.

No way, he isn't going to wire this field and won't have any response to the closers in the stretch. imo

It was a joke..FUNNY HOW, FUNNY LIKE A CLOWN?

Doesnt matter what the m/l odds are. Odds only matter once they're off.

You are correct by taking a HEAVY look at him.

Also take a heavy look at Phoenix Reach.

Phoenix Reach is my pick. I hope his odds stay decent.

Looking at the Euros, Soldier Hollow looks interesting to me....

Well he's got a great arlington turf jock in Douglas. I just don't know how tough those fields were in Germany this year, where by the way he hasn't managed to win yet this year. I can't imagine that this race represents any kind of class relief for him.

I just thoroughly looked at the PP's for the Million. These Euro's LOOK RIDICULOUS. Ace, Solider's Hollow, Phoenix Reach and I am not throwing out Touch of Land. I went down from 1-11 so I am looking at Ace, and I am like "WOW, serious Timeform ratings, and I think he loves lasix" then I go down to Touch of Land, and I see the same progession as he took last year, and I SWEAR he made some sort of monster move in last years Million, Euro jock comes here, Then I go down to Soldier Hollow and I see 1) Douglas, great breeding for the distance, competitive timeform ratings, THEN i go to Phoenix Reach, while I am not a fan of the layoff, look at the horses he has run up against(Zenna's Rob Roy, Rakti, Alexander Goldrun, Azamour(FRIGGIN RAT IN THE BC TURF but tough in Euro), Bago (another rat but tough in euro)

Man, I am so excited about this weekend, these races are going to be awesome to watch in person...I will say this though, I am going to be in the paddock for this race because I want to see what some of these horses look ilke, if I can't make a decision, I might be going 5-6 deep in this race....

Yes but he ran off. That race was on soft turf. If the course is fast he is a player. The horse is definitley better now. I think he is in deep but he is going to have an impact on the race. Probably will ruin some other front running types. If I could read the damn timeform crap I would have some idea what the foreign horses do. How in Gods name do they handicap races over there besides watching replays?

He'll be a factor, yes. He'll be one of the leading horses spread across the track as they straighten for home. By the time the wire arrives he'll be no better than fourth.

Note: I don't know if this is an angle or not but Gaff went to Dubai also and his first race back in the states was a decent race, only to throw a complete clunker next out...

I know Tin ran well last time, could this be his clunker?

I am thinking I am gonna try for some Euro lovin and throw in English Channel, maybe just English Channel and Ace, but that will cause some serious anxiety....

I think it could be another year where 5 or 6 horses are in the win photo.

I wouldn't really say that Gaff ran good when he came back. He ran 3rd in a 7 horse field at Pimlico. It wasn't a great field. I think the only decent horse in the race was Friendly Island. A horse called Celtic Innis ran 2nd. The rest of the field was Better Than Bonds, Gold Cluster, Kazoo and Crafty Schemer.

Acually I take that back. I am editing this post. I just watched that Pimlico race and I do think that Gaff ran a pretty good race that day.

Your theory can be true in some cases. A horse can get back from a long trip and may run well the first time but then the fatigue kicks in after that.

I just watched Gaff get his ass beat at god damn Mountaineer with my money on him. :( . He is definitely not the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector last winter...