forget Summer Bird for a minute. Who Was Better Dunkirk or Mine That Bird?
 

Dunkirk had a nice inside trip up front, while going wayyy too fast.

Mine That Bird had a tremendous early set up off the fassst pace, but then had a stupendous timing of his run allowing him to move way too early.


the actual outcome was a photo finish, so it is all about the trip


which handicappers were right?
Who ran the better race?? It isn't as straight forward as it seems. I think it is actually very close.

I'll say Dunkirk.

At least Mine That Bird got a realistic chance to even make a move, staying off that pace early.

I think if they both had good set ups off the pace* and both had to make a well timed move, Dunkirk beats him easily while Mine That Bird flattens out.
*John Velazquez probably is a horrible choice for that hypothetical "fair race".

Dunkirk had a great trip, yes he had to run hard on the lead but I think making the run MTB, wide as well, was a better run.

Mine That Bird.

I don't think the pace was as demanding as the fractions indicated. Charitable Man continued on okay while four lengths back after a quarter and two and half lengths back after a half. Even Summer Bird was fairly close up through the opening half.

The track was playing fast all day. Baffert's filly pulled a wire job while going 6f in 1:09 in the mile Acorn, and the fractions in that race weren't much slower to the ones in the Woody Stephens.

You are right it is a close call. Dunkirk was put in an unfamiliar pace spot and didn't try to run off, so he gets points for that. If Dunkirk hadn't had to fight with MTB with a quarter left to run, he might have been able to hold off the winner.

MTB was the best yesterday IF calvin doesn't move him to early.

Dunkirk was impressive and certainly moved forward BUT did the mile and half ruin him for the rest of the summer?

this and only this race, Dunkrik. Otherwise, MTB no qeustion.

Dunkirk

I think MTB was too ranked...Travers would be fun.

Since we are doing hypotheticals, what if MTB skipped Preakness & did not move prematulrey.. then what? Dunkrik loses by 5 lenghts?

I think this type of looking at the pace by "where they finished" is tricky in a race like this.

I'm not saying it is definitely wrong to do (and you can see I didn't include quote some of the other supporting strong arguments about how the track was playing.)

the problem I have is that one way of looking at the race is that most of the best horses were up front. Them being successful is still very possible whether they all went too fast or not.-The only really good horse far enough off the pace was Mine That Bird, and he had a problem with moving too early.

Dunkirk's fractions(after we adjust for how fast the track was) were borderline between too fast and fine. That is what makes it difficult to call. If they had been a lot faster it would be obvious and the horses up front would really be paying a price late.

in that race MTB, but id' prefer to own Dunkirk

I was anti-Dunkirk until yesterday. That colt showed some moxie.

Dunkirk.


The Florida Derby in my opinion was still the most impressive prep going into the Derby - it would have been very interesting had Dunkirk taken control out of the gate like he did yesterday.

Dunkirk was better because he was 2nd. Considering the hype he has recieved the past few months he is nothing more than an expensive turd sandwich.

You have raised a very valid point. As a last resort, we can always look to what Johnny V had to say after the race. He may not have known the fractions, but he probably had a good idea about how Dunkirk was moving early. This is what JV said: "I couldn't believe he was on the lead early. There was no pace."

What can we make of these comments?

Unless there was an airport style "moving walkway" under the track it isn't really possible for a paceless race to go 23.41 for the first quarter of a 12 furlong race. I don't know what JV could have possibly been expecting for a 12 furlong race with the 2 fastest runners on form being Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Both of those runners have only route speed - they aren't sprinters...

Was JV that clueless to reality? Was he making excuses for breaking a stretch runner too keenly in a 12 furlong race with little expected pace? Was he intimidated with having an inside post and felt that he had to use some horse from the gate to avoid feeling the squeeze early??
Who knows.

Velazquez is pretty much a negative in any situation now except for dominant outside speed.

Uhm, perhaps the track was insanely fast? While I tend to think jockeys are retards and often make things up as they speak, that's both CB and JRV who said the pace was very slow.

Also, watching the race, Dunkirk did not look like a horse that was going 47.

Dunkirk had the best trip in the Belmont, followed by MTB and then SB. I know what has been said and written about it, but that's the way I saw it.

Of the top 3 finishers that is.

Dunkirk set a fast pace and beat MTB to the wire, even after MTB rushed up on him off the turn....easily Dunkirk.

Fat Man is really going to scold u for that one

Do you really think that? Summer Bird, while he inconsequentially steadied a couple of times on the backstretch, received an outstanding ride and had a perfect trip.

Look at Fat Man's chart and you can see what the winning move was vis-a-vis the earlier moves that were made. Looking at it from a race flow perspective, which is a crucial part of trip handicapping, it is quite clear that this race was set up for Summer Bird. All he had to be able to do was finish and considering how much ground he had saved while galloping on the rail, he was packing quite a wallop in the stretch.

NT

I watched the race 3 times last night each from the perspective of being on MTB, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird to be as objective as possible I don't know if anyone here has taken the time to be that objective. Honestly if we all get past this trip stuff of who got the best trip and especially the slightly premature move by Borel, the difference in the rides is very miniscule. Raw numbers aside, Dunkirk was comfortable riding the golden rail as the speed, MTB was not rushed up but floated up by Borel, Durkin's call is hyperbole..mad rush my ash...it was only that when he got side by side with the leaders he asked him, the majority of the time a horse making that move at Belmont the horse wins. Summer Bird had a good trip, despite the obvious steady/checks down the backside, he could have been closer but he did make up alot of ground on the worst part of the track. Other than that, all the rides had good aspects to them and all them had some negative aspects to them. The best horse won, I think most educated horseplayers will agree the result was a true one whether MTB waited a little longer before he made his move or not.

If he really is the Fatman, I would be more scared if he sat on me. :rolleyes:

The thing is, we're discussing the trips and the rides go hand-in-hand. We can't discuss the trips if we take out or marginalize the premature move of Borel, you can't rationally analyze the trip.

I also don't really buy into the argument about how Summer Bird made up ground on the worst part of the track. The race that really screamed bias on Saturday was the Acorn but that result, in my opinion, had more to do with GGG getting a clear lead in a race that lacked any good horses. The favorite was a perfect trip winner in each of her graded stakes efforts and was returning from an unnecessarily long and injury-induced layoff.

To sum it up, do I think the best horse at 12 furlongs, a distance beyond the scope of the 2-3 finishers, won the race? Yes.

NT

Is Summer Bird the new Jazil?

Though we will never know this, had Calvin waited as he had in the Preakness and Derby, does MTB get up in time? I think his run fizzles and I am sure people would be on here criticizing he was too far back, didn't move him fast enough. Horseracing is just made for revisionists huh? I'm glad you acknowledge SB was the superior horse this time and though you haven't mentioned it, I am pretty sure you had a bet on him because you did recognize he was a live longshot last week.

I think Summer Bird will prove to be a better horse than Jazil.

I think Summer Bird is better at 9 furlongs or less, Jazil is better at 10 furlongs or more.

Jazil only won 2 career races out of 11, I still remember him retiring off of a failed allowance race, just as Monarchos had. I believe the question's intentions were to ask is this a one off..I don't think it was. This horse still has an upside.

What exactly are you basing this on?

yes, basically I was asking if people thought he'd be a one hit wonder at 12 furlongs like our favorite horse, Jazil.

I like Summer Bird. I actually think he will be tough in the 9 and 10 furlong races. I don't know that he is super talented but he could do really well in this division simply by getting the distance and grinding home in the stretch. If Quality Road or Rachel don't partake in a race, stamina could be enough many times...

I also think Summer Bird was best in the Belmont. However that could easily be an optical illusion as several have argued that Mine That Bird or even Dunkirk had rough trips as far as the flow of the race.
Nice youtube replay - I like the way Summer Bird looks from 200 - 100 yards out. Of course the flow of the race helps greatly here as well.

I think it is a lot safer to say Mine That Bird or Summer Bird. SB didn't have to change a thing, and MTB simply had to wait longer to move...

With Dunkirk it really gets hypothetical... we are asking for a whole different approach - patience from the gate, maybe getting shuffled back a little inside traffic, settling back off the pace with Summer Bird and Chocolate Candy and last-moving with Summer Bird. - Who knows if all that is even possible? And then we have a fracture as well to complicate things...:(

Performance and speed figures. Both had one race at 10 furlongs and one at 12 furlongs on the dirt. Jazil was faster in both on speed figures and was 1st/4th in those races as opposed to 1st/6th for Summer Bird. There's no reasonable metric that puts Summer Bird ahead from 10 furlongs and on.

I would say Mine That Bird ran better than Dunkirk. Having a much wider trip and all. Here are the quarter splits I came up with in the race for the top 3....
I'm sure they're off, but not too much.

Summer Bird:

24.18
23.72

50.98 (second half mile)
23.46
25.20

Dunkirk:

23.41
23.72
25.30
25.43
24.16
26.06

Mine That Bird:

25.28
23.38

50.13 (second half mile)
22.87
26.39

I guess the argument is...was Dunkirk's 23.41 first quarter more taxing than Mine That Bird running the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th quarters significantly faster than Dunkirk. Plus he took a much wider path the whole way. I don't think it's much of an argument.

Big sample size. . .

I'm with you on this one Coach. Dunkirk has gotten incredible media support, benefitted from more excuses for failure to finish and still is getting the benefit of the doubt for Silver medal performances. Quality Road stole his heart that day in the Florida Derby and he has yet to respond by winning a subsequent race. The bias written about in DRF may explain Dunkirk's second wind and/or MTB's lack of a sustained effort going wide in the 4 path Saturday.

As opposed to the sample of zero that suggests Summer Bird is better?

I wouldn't suggest either is better because it's irrelevant and unknowable - especially considering that Summer Bird has run exactly five times. Just seems like a silly discussion to me. . . but carry on. What was Jazil's beyer in the Belmont?