The Wood June 5, 2009
 

Math has usually been quick with the 'Wood thread on Fridays to help me escape my day at work, but nothing today, so here I am...

To announce I'll miss it tonight (I think)....have Red Sox tickets, but the deluge is en route. So, maybe I'll end up 'capping after the rain out and jumping in the late quad, but I think I'm going to save my bullets for tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone!

I know this sounds ridiculous, but I usually cap and post from work. But I actually have the day off today and haven't even had a chance to look at the card. I'll take a look when the boys go to bed tonight.

Here's what I have

Late Pick 4
3,4,7
4,5
4,6
3,4,7,8

Trying to beat the Sadler in the first leg. Just feel this horse needs more ground and will have a tough trip with the outside post.

Also trying to beat Christy's Bullet in the finale. Looks like she'll be the favorite and is already a two-time chalk money burner.

Good luck.

Early 4 PRE scratches
1st
Looks like a chalky start to the early quad.
#1 Mud Sweat n Tears & #6 Standford Dolly seem to be in the best form. Both should be looking for that stalk/closing type trip and should get a fair pace to run at with the 2 & 5 most likely both trying to get the lead.

2nd
Wide open 2 year old affair where I am considering going 6 deep.
#6 Sweet Tiger, #7 Bertran Hill and #9 Wolf Trail all come out of the same race, where the 2nd place finisher won next time out. I also like the 2 Harrington horse to the outside,
#10 Zees Echo (first time starter with good works and trainer winning at 26% with firsters) and
11 Awesome Swiss (making 2nd start and has 4 good works under his belt since his debut).
#4 Chocolate Marini sports a bullet 2 days ago leading into this race.

3rd
#1 Roi Charmant making 2nd off the bench for the hot Truman barn. Gets the rail and will probably try to go wire to wire.
#3 Cayambe sports a bullet for his return after a brief layoff. Stalker also gets some class relief dropping in for 40k.
#4 Shadow of Illinois looking for his 3rd straight win. Trainer has good numbers with his limited starters.
Playing against the Mullins (always dangerous) horse off the layoff here.

4th
#10 Celena ran 4th for statebred 35k last out with 1st time blinkers. Cuts back a panel, drops to open 25k and breaks from the outside.
#3 Ampys Lil Girl just missed at the same level last out. Chris Russell comes over from Los Al for the mount and any type of repeat performance should put her right in the mix.
#1 Kristen's Lil Lady sports a good work heading into this race where she drops a level and gets the rail. Tyler Baze back abord the 3 year old filly, he was abord the first 2 races where she ran second and third. She should be a square price.

1,6
6,7,9,10 (using the 6 now and tossed the 11)
1,3,4
1,3,10
$72
Good Luck

Kathy Walsh horse taking the early money in the first leg - not really seeing that one :confused:

I agree, I really have a hard time getting past the 1 and 6 in the 1st, I don't see anyone else winning the race. It is the 2nd and 4th that give me fits.

33% 2nd off is my only explanation

Early P4

1,2,6/6,7,9/3,4/3,6,10

good luck all

I can't make heads or tails of the 4th.

P3 $2.

1,6/6,7,9,10,11/1,4 =$40 Pays $74.40

True dat, Tom.... looking at the 2 logicals (3,10) but don't know what to make of the 2...Turf Paradise shipper off the freshening, draws Talamo... Would like to have seen a work at Hollywood

I am with you here RBE, and I am putting that 2 somewhere on the tickets I am splitting with pmac.

Split a set of early tix with Pointman. GL

$1
R1 - 1,6
R2 - 6,7
R3 - 1,3,4,5,6
R4 - 3,10
$40

$1
R1 - 1,6
R2 - 4,6,7,9,10,11
R3 - 1,3
R4 - 3,10
$48

$1
R1 - 1,6
R2 - 6,7
R3 - 1,3
R4 - 1,2,3,5,6,7
$48

$1Pk4 - $632.50

$1
R1 - 1,4,6
R2 - 6,7
R3 - 1,3
R4 - 3,10
$24

$180

I'm in, played my original ticket. Execpt swapped the 11 for the 6 in the 2nd leg.
1,6
6,7,9,10
1,3,4
1,3,10 CRACKED IN THE LAST LEG
$72

Let's get it on!!!!

1,6//6,7,9,10,11//1,3,4,5//3,10

80.00

Hol 1
 

1) $2 ex 56/174 $1 tri 56/1567/14567 $4 w 4 bet 34 lost

Early P4
 

1) 1, 6
2) 2, 4, 6, 10
3) 1, 5
4) 3

$16

146/69/35/36-10

R1) $10 w 1 lost
$2 ex 1,6 w/ 1,6,2 $23.40

I have no balls! That horse was a single and I just couldn't do it!

Cheap-O Pick 3 to stay out of trouble and handicap for tomorrow

146
6910
4

On a very limited bankroll today since I got completely sodomized at the track today but what the hell. Basically, I need Silent Stalk to win in the 5th.

Race 4:

Pick 3 --> 3, 6, 10 / 3 / 4

Race 5:

Pick 3 --> 3 / 4 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Pick 4 --> 3 / 4 / 6 / 2, 3, 7

Exacta --> 3 with 1, 7, 8

Trifecta --> 3 with 1, 8 with 1, 8

There's a thread going on where someone listed the Derby Trail guys who they thought won money gambling on horses.

I was shocked and appalled not to see sdjcom on that list.

Wow, I can't believe the 7 is 4/5.

dean,... lol i'm down 4600 so far this year, iv'e got to do some big hitt'in to break even for the year.

But that's your style, baby! The ol' rope-a-dope. I know I'm going to log on someday and see that you've taken down a $10,000 trifecta or $100K Pick Six. You work too hard at this for me to think otherwise.

lol... well thx for your confidence it will be a tri or super cause i rarely play pk6 except for an occasion my wife will play a number or names, she is handicapping now and is going to box MTB-Chocalate C, -Summer B, i;m going to play wps on Summer bird. good-luck to you tommorrow i have to drive most of the day. on that big hit ..it's coming my friend

R2) $5 w 4,10 lost
$2 exb 4,6,10 lost. cheaped out. almost added the 9.

Yeah... I'm dutching.

2nd
$1 tri 6/7,9,10/7,9,10

Oof. Heartbreaker. You were right on it, Math. Just missed it. Warning track.

Yeah unfortunately for me any horse Joy Scott is on is usually an auto toss. But there were a few angles that made him playable.

Have you hit a $10,000 trifecta before?

How do you guys handicap turf races differently than dirt? I understand it's the late kick that counts, but I have to admit, I'm lost on the turf.

I just pick the horse with the best name.

You're the first expert I've heard or read who doesn't love Dunkirk tomorrow.

I can dig that. Sometimes I think handicapping is all just a big bull$hitting game. Nobody knows anything and anything can happen. We try and make sense out of the chaos of a calvary stampede before and after the fact.

Hol
 

3) $2 ex 35/14 $1 tri 35/1345/13456 $5 ex bx 35 bet 36 lost last bet tonight -236 on day -4851

R3) $10 w 5
$2 ex 5 w/ 1,3

Takin a shot with a little P3:

3: 1,3,4,5,6
4: 10
5: 1,2,3,4,8

$25

BOL!!

But seriously, I'm a complete novice. I just didn't want you to think I was ignoring your question.

I don't know how much the experts put into this, but when dealing with horses racing on turf for the first time I heavily consider the horse's Tomlinson turf number. It doesn't always work, and it's certainly not the only thing to look at, but there have been a few 10-1 shots that I've had come in based on the Tomlinson number.

Why doesn't RUSSELL Baze ever pilot anyone in the Triple Crown and/or Breeders Cup races? Is he afraid to fly or something?