6/5 (BEL): Hill Prince (Gr. III); Brooklyn (Gr. II); + 2 Listed S.
 

4th (2:36) Alyssum S.

6 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $65,000

1 Mani Bhavan Garcia Alan 118 L
2 Roxyana Velazquez J R 118 L
3 Speculation Maragh R 118 L
1A Hollywood Hills Dominguez R A 118 L
1X Malibu Beach Dominguez R A 118 L
4 Pretty Katherine Gomez G K 118 L
5 Reforestation Castellano J J 118 L

A-Coupled: Mani Bhavan and Hollywood Hills and Malibu Beach



8th (4:45) Glowing Honor S.

6 Furlongs (Inner turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $65,000

1 Anofficerandalady Coa E M 121 L
2 Life Lesson Garcia Alan 119 L
3 Missvinski Castellano J J 121 Blk-Off L
4 What She Said Velasquez C 121 L
5 Lucky Copy Gomez G K 121 L
6 Jazzy (ARG) Maragh R 121 L
7 J Z Warrior Velazquez J R 121 L
8 Holistic Prado E S 119 L
9 Sales Tax Desormeaux K J 121 L
10 Frolic's Dream Dominguez R A 117 L

MTO Are We Dreamin 121 L
MTO Dance Gal Dance Maragh R 119 L
MTO Matchless Orinda Velasquez C 119 L



9th (5:17) Hill Prince S. (G3)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Duke of Homberg (GB) Dominguez R A 120 L
2 Despite the Odds Rose J 116 L
3 Rendezvous Gomez G K 116 L
4 Florentino (JPN) Garcia Alan 116 L
5 Lime Rickey Castellano J J 116 L
6 Heros Image Velasquez C 116 L
7 Elmfield Boy Coa E M 116 L
8 Conservative Desormeaux K J 116 L
9 Affirmatif Velazquez J R 116 L

MTO Dubinsky Rose J 118 L



10th (5:49) Brooklyn H. (G2)

1 1/2 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Ea Dominguez R A 116 L
2 Nite Light Velazquez J R 116 L
3 Eldaafer Chavez J F 114 Blk-Off L
1A Barrier Reef Dominguez R A 118 L
4 Lord Kipling Prado E S 114 L
5 Delosvientos Coa E M 120 L
6 Fierce Wind Desormeaux K J 116 L
7 Alcomo (BRZ) Velasquez C 118 L
8 Don Misil (ARG) Maragh R 114 L
9 Rising Moon Gomez G K 118 L

A-Coupled: Ea and Barrier Reef

Look's like a half day of work on Friday! :D

You'll need an ADW to watch the Hill Prince and Brooklyn live if your at home.

Got Capital OTB

Looks like NO WORK that day for me...going to Belmont...searching out the Bykster...munching a Carolina BBQ if its open...hoping for nice weather! :D

I know it's early, but I really like Missvinski.

The one who stopped on a dime on Saturday in that listed stake race?

NT

Here's a thought: how about Toscano and Chavez get their heads out of their asses and not have Eldaafer up close early before dropping to last and coming again prematurely on the turn. Toscano asses out with this claim and he needs to abuse the poor horse by putting Chavez up, AGAIN.

The trainer of record is now Diane Alvarado. Chavez's last two rides on this horse have been laughably bad and I think he has an excellent chance on Friday.

NT

yup

You should get a good price.

NT

I realize that the tone of your post is basically "you're an idiot - the horse has not shot," so I guess I might as well state my case.

First off, this horse's Euro form was obviously very, very good and she clearly showed A LOT of promise for Rouget - I'm sure you wouldn't debate that her last race in France almost certainly was better than anything any of these horses have ever run (on turf). She was also 3-for-3 at 6F in Europe. Now, we can't bank on her being the same horse she was in 2007 for various/obvious reasons, but we may be able to explain away some of her disappointments since then to the point where we can give her another chance at a very big price.

9/8/07 - G1 Garden City - a very tough spot - she ran only borderline credibly - we can excuse her because of the distance and because it was her first start in N.A.

10/14/08 - Listed stakes in CA - first for Canani - she was off slow and never in contention - placed on the bench for a while after that so it's safe to assume something went wrong

5/9/08 - turf sprint stakes in CA - first off the lay-off, she once again gets left at the gate, but then closes to get third into what I'm assuming was a very slow pace without knowing how the turf was playing that day (:23 3/5 and :46 2/5)

6/28/09 - she's then entered in a somewhat ambitious spot in the G2 A Gleam on synth against the likes of Dearest Trickski and Magnificience on the polytrack. If this is the race I'm thinking of, DT controlled the pace and even Magnificience (granted, a much worse horse on poly) couldn't get to her. Missvinski had a rough trip and never ran a step. We can chalk her non-effort up to that, the surface, or maybe another injury.

4/11/09 - First for Mott, won by front-runner Raw Silk. I don't have the chart for the race and can't remember anything about it, but from the looks of things Missvinski got a little too close to the pace. It was her first off the lay-off and first with Mott so while it's a slightly less easily excusable performance, I think we can still give her a bit of a break.

After the South Beach, her works signal improvement. She had three very fast works back-to-back before a slower final work before her effort on Saturday, and looked to be coming into the race pretty tuned up but also perhaps a little too keen. She came out a little too sharp in a race beyond her best distance, and spit the bit after setting a good pace.

The fact that Mott's running her back so quickly to me shows that he saw something in her works that makes him think she's better than that last performance and perhaps he realized that he mis-spotted her a bit. She's turning back - obviously good for her - and as long as she came out of the race on Saturday in good order probably gained a lot of fitness from the effort. Notice that all the works in her PPs have been at 4F - she may not have been fit enough off of those. Taking off the blinkers certainly can't hurt either. . .

I think he's desperate and she can no longer race competitively.

Look, she's a big price, and I realize she has a " wise guy horse " sign on her back......I just don't like her. But, I also won't be absolutely shocked if she runs OK.

"You're an idiot, the horse has no shot" is not my style and I'd rarely, if ever, say that here or anywhere. In fact, I hoped that you would mention what you liked about her. I made a sizable wager on her in the Garden City based on her Euro form. I thought she ran well that afternoon but the winner was just a superior horse that afternoon.

I agree that she's had a variety of things go wrong since and there are excuses for some of them. I'm mostly baffled by the quick comeback given that that's never been Mott's thing. She is definitely way off form but there is some merit to considering what she can do if they lay back and make one run. That was her preferred style in Europe, so it would definitely make a difference.

I really thought she stopped like a horse who bled last time out and maybe the time before. I've hardly looked at the field but she's certainly going to be a large price and undoubtedly faces a softer group than she has in her last two starts.

NT

I think Frolic's Dream will run well debuting on turf for Tagg. The last two - first two for Tagg - don't look good but can be tossed. The mile G2 Davona Dale was beyond her reach in terms of distance and then she clearly loathed the mud at BEL on 5/2. Like seeing Dominguez taking ride.

I could see this side of things, but the fact that she seems to be working speedily and showed a lot of speed on Saturday seems to go against this theory a bit. She has at least been showing SOMETHING. Nick's point that Mott's not one to run horses back this quickly could probably either be taken as a sign of desperation or something a little more promising. I'm obviously leaning towards the latter, as I don't think a patient horsemen like Mott would be running this horse into the ground if he thought she was done (not that I'm accusing you of intimating something so nefarious).

Cue the Wolfson juice comments. . .

The post you are quoting is just too dumb to even bother with.

Her first race with Tagg was too far? She was done early going many seconds slower than she ever had.

Does Wolfson juice though? How do you know?

Lets just say...I dont think the Jackson's will be flying into Calder for a private purchase, the next time Wolfson gets a dog biscuit to run huge.

I'm surprised to see a horse like Affirmatif running in the Hill Prince when he'd likely be favored in a G2, and for a lot more money, in two weeks.

I thought Pletcher would throw him in the deep end after his smashing debut at GP. I saw at Kee why he has decided to handle this one with kid gloves and bring him along slowly. After my best mush job of all time calling him the best 3yo colt in the land, he cost me a 2k DD and p4 hit. He is a very immature (head case) 3yo. Probaly would benefit greatly from being gelded but, has too much Pedigree and talent to be cut. His Dam side is very strong.

Bottom line: I think he is the most talented horse in the field....But a big bet against at short odds.
His last race wasnt all that impressive while beating absolutely nothing.
The only horse to beat Aff so far is Golden Mexico, who was sent off as the Fav in a Stakie at Arl against Giant Oak. After setting slow fractions on a lonely lead he folded like a soup sandwich in the lane.

I'm not sure how good this horse is; and he might not be much.

But, I believe, that basing an opinion on the KEE race is the wrong way to go.
He got all the worst of it in terms of setup and ground covered (running 39ft or 4.5 lengths more than than the winner) in that race and certainly ran better than Golden Mexico. The only lesson coming out of that one was that GW was a tossin the AP race.

I'm not a fan of Affirmatif either.

I'm not saying that I like the horse, but a better and more lucrative spot for him would be the Colonial Turf Cup where the other nominees are not too much better or worse.

I like Rendezvous to run well in that race.

They did the same thing in his last start. Passing on a $100k G3 to run in a $50k listed stake two weeks later. They're not being very ambitious with their spotting.

That being said, the Hill Prince looks like a great race.

Pletcher is very smart, and has a very good idea how good his horses are, and probably how far they want to run, so there is probably a reason he is running Affimatif shorter ( than Colonial ) and in perhaps less ambitious spots. Though, Friday's race is not an easy race.

An interesting horse, and I never thought I'd be plugging this plug, is Lime Rickey.

I feel the same way. I always thought he was a total phony, but he's clearly improved. His last race was very impressive.

Terrible angle usually, but my wife loves Lime Rickey. This will generally regulate a horse to 3rd or 4th. :D

So it looks like the forecast is saying rain for tomorrow...so I'm going to assume Belmont is going to be off the turf. How's that change everyone's thinking?

Mani Bhavan outclasses every horse in the Alyssum but she hasn't done much lately. And how will she do on a wet track?

I wonder what the chance of them keeping the two stakes on the turf is. . . totally kills the card if they have to take them off.

that was really unfortunate for her that they asked her to run 8.5 in decent company over that polytrack. She generally breaks alertly with gate quickness which should help her over a sealed track.

Reforestation is decent option with outside speed. Hollendorfer's filly is interesting longshot, works not impressive on paper.

Supposed to rain all day with the heaviest rain coming in the early afternoon. If they do stay on, I'd be skittish about betting anything considering the shape the course will be in.

As you mention, it's going to rain all day, and the heaviest rain, according to weather.com will be from 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. So I really can't see them keeping the races on the turf.

As hockey mentions, the card is pretty much ruined if the two races are taken off the turf, but it may be a necessity.

Mani Bhavan is not running. There was an article on DRF that Klesaris is only running the horse who just won at Delaware, Malibu Beach and the others are scratching.

As of right now the 8th and 9th are on the turf, which is rated soft. Total rainfall forecasted for today is about 1.25 inches. .

NT

Lime Rickey - I don't know if he will be the wiseguy choice today it seems many are interested in him today, but I like him also for the reasons already mentioned in this thread.

horrible pools in the brooklyn/belmont double

they aren't even betting the morning lines. its like 300k of smart money.

the preakness was like 900k of mixed bag money