Best 3 yr old in the country
 

Not counting the fillies if the vote was held today Mine That Bird would be my vote.

If he wins the Belmont , i don't see how that wouldn't lock up the title after that race - 2 wins and a second in the TC would have to make him a lock for 3 yr old colt of the year no?

not necessarily. there are some good horses on the sidelines that could be heard from throughout the year. i'd say he's the front runner right now.

who is going to beat him - if he wins two legs of the TC and a 2nd in the Preakness - expalin to me how he could not get it if the above plays out , aren't those 3 races the most important for 3 yr old colts for the year - he would have 2 wins and a 2nd

even if quality road comes back and wins the travers and a few other races - how would it be right for MTB not to get the award?

i'm not arguing right or wrong. but horses have won tc races, and then not got top 3 yo. that's why i'm saying it's not a lock. obviously he's the front runner now. besides, he has to win another tc race for the first part of your scenario to be factual.

as for quality road, or other horses who missed the spring classics, there are still plenty of races out there. there's taking on older horses in the fall, and of course the bcc.

i know that my case is hinged on him winning the belmont , a tall order but , in my opinion winning 2 of 3 and running 2nd to a super filly in the 3rd leg should make him an automatic lock

if he doesn't get if the above plays out , it' an injustice - in my opinion

it's may. you might want to see how the year unfolds before making your eclipse selections-that's all i'm saying. you might be thinking differently by years' end.

If he wins the belmont... and had some nads and the owners rushed him off to the shed like most horses that win 2 TC races he would be a LOCK for 3 yo colt.

If he wins the belmont but god forbid runs in races the rest of the year and does average I dont think he wins the 3yo colt title.

Its weird logic but than again the eclipse awards are a weird event.

This is a very interesting case with this horse. He WASN't 'fast enough' to even be considered in the discussion a few weeks ago. Then, as luck would have it, he gets cut off out of the gate and the jock decides to ride him off the pace. And, all of a sudden, he BECOMES 'fast enough'. I'm thinking, whether he's top 3 year old (excluding RA) or not depends on whether or not he remains 'fast enough'.

Get my drift?:rolleyes:

Especially if that were Quality Road and the horse beat Mind that Bird head to head in at least one of those races.

Jay help me please if a horse wins the KY derby by 7 , runs 2nd in the preakness beats all the colts and losses to a super filly , then comes back and wins the belmont stakes - how in the world can he not get the top 3 yr old of the year for colts - aren't those 3 races the most important of the year aren't they the races that everyone shoots for ?

Let me run this by you if QR comes back and wins the JD and travers then wins the Gold cup - and then doesn't race in the classic (i don't think JJ will send him to the west coast on the ploy) why wouldn't MTB get it over him even if MTB does nothing after winning the Belmont - please explain that to me - i don't get it

His beyers on synth were mediocre last yr, obviously he has improved since he moved to dirt coupled with a preferred late running style. Or the Woodbine beyers were off last yr...

So, in other words, you think based on his accomplishments prior to May 2nd, he should have been considered in " this discussion " back in April? That's interesting and I would love you to explain this ( or even direct me to your posts about this from a few weeks, or more, ago ). And, let me offer a belated congratulations on the score you made in the KY Derby and further compliment you on your modesty, until now, about this life altering event.

scott - what if they go back to Sunland for the summer after winning the belmont and don't go head to head vs QR

I'll give QR 3 wins in NY , but, i won't give him the classic on the poly in california - who would get the vote , who won the more important races

injuries are part of the game it's unfortunate that QR did not get to compete in the TC , but how in the world could you in all honesty vote for QR over MTB in this secnario - explain please

Its only May 19th........ Right ???

It would be an interesting vote if that happened. I think there would be a huge backlash against the owners for ducking the competition by hiding out in New Mexico. I also think the stupidity of hiding a gelding cause you might lose the prestige of an Eclipse Award when he could be out earning checks is a pretty amusing scenario.

TFM,

The decision was made well before the race that Mine That Bird was going to be taken back and come with one run. As soon as they saw that they could get into the Derby with their earnings, Woolley sought out Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, and told him what they were looking to do and that they wanted Borel specifically. While the break exacerbated the 'take back/one run' scenario, it wasn't happenstance that the gelding was coming from well off the pace in the Derby.

For the love of God....it is M-I-N-E That Bird! Why can't people get a simple name like this right?

it has been edited

Now that it has been fixed, I can respond. No way does a Belmont win lock up 3 year old of the year. He has not won another race all year, and might have to do more if some other horse goes on a hot streak later. He certainly has a leg up on the competition.

what if the connections take him up to Woodbine to run in some of the big races up there and he wins - does that get held against him as well

it's a long way to go - my main point is IF he wins the belmont , another 3yr old colt would have to run the table in some pretty big races including the BCC out on the poly in cali - and i don't think Jimmy will go to california with QR in my opinion to run on the cushion , so if MTB wins at BEL i don't see a chance for QR to overtake him for 3 yr old of the year because i don't think QR is going to Califronia no matter how many races in NY he wins

Big races in Woodbine? You mean on the turf in races often targeted by older European horses? I'm sure he'd turn some heads if he won those but he'd be longer odds than he was in the Derby to do so. What other big races would they run him in at Woodbine?

I will reserve comment until Summer Colony a Pole checks in.

i don't know what 3 yr old races are up there

If- big, big if- MTB wins the Belmont, I think it would take an already accomplished 3yo winning the Classic to beat him for the 3yo colt Eclipse. The only 3yo colts who have enough on their resume now to even talk about getting in the mix later in the year are Quality Road, I Want Revenge, POTN, Musket Man, and Friesan Fire. If one of those were to win the Travers, another top race, and the Classic, it would be close. If QR or IWR came back with strong summer/fall campaigns, they would certainly have to be considered especially if they beat MTB head to head in races.

If anything we have learned you cannot discount the talent that comes from perceived inferior locales. Sealy Hill & now Mine That Bird are a testament to that, both former Sovereign winners. Throw in Fatal Bullet also.

'cause he got beat by Rachel ALEXANDER

i maybe jumping the gun but at this point i guess it's safe to say he is the top 3 yr old of the year for colts - and we still have a good 5 months of racing ahead of us - it's his to lose now

tiznow.

ever heard of him?

Rachel Alexander is the maiden name of Rachel Nichols.

And for the record ... I'd toss her salad.

Gee

All this attention from you.

All I'm saying is this 'FAST ENOUGH' **** is just that: BULLSHIT

You, of all people, know that it's all, pretty much, about SETUPS.

Horses improve or take step backwards based on the way the race shapes up.

As for the other ****: I didn't bet the Derby. I'm only on record as thinking that Friesan Fire was a piece a ****.

Life is good when you don't have to justify some FIGURE. And even better when your opinion is not FIGUREcentric.

I don't understand why someone who understands the game as well as you do needs to constantly twist people's use of figures, and the viability of good speed figures, to somehow justify your points. The idea of understanding race flow, and how it affects outcomes, is interesting and important enough on its own to not need to be supplemented with a misguided constant attack on speed figures.

You are ahead of me... It only took me 2 TC races to figure out FF is a one track wonder. As far as Mine That Bird, If he wins the Belmont is most certainly should be 3 year old of the year.. He would be 1 length away from the Triple Crown. I go on record stating that his running style is absolutely not a fit in the Belmont.. You need to be on or near the lead and RA fits that perfectly.

Of course you do not.

I think everyone is being premature here. We need to see how those monsters that were beating him down in NM finish out the year. I mean, if Kelly Leak can beat him again, wouldn't that make him a legit contender? Mythical Power came back to dominate the Lone Star Derby. What if he beats MTB again in the Haskell and/or Travers? Wouldn't he have a case too? Let's see how things play out.

If that is the case, why did the owner 'downed my head in disgust when they went by the frontstretch for the first time'??? I think I remember Fu-Man-Chu saying he was expecting Borel to have him a few lengths off the pace but was surprised to see him drop completely out of it early.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Come on, man, after the race they definitely planned to take him back to last all along. Kind of like when you want to bet the 4, mispunch and bet the 5, and win. You know you wanted the 5 all along.

you are correct , he never expected him to be that far back in the derby that is what he said on NBC after the race, being last is one thing , being where he was , that was not a plan , unless you subscribe to the fact (which i have seen on another board) that they knew they had the "goods" to win and the sunland races were just used to give the horse some works for the derby , no one here knows how this horse trained coming into the derby , he may have been rating him the entire time in the am works out at sunland or wherever and knew the horse could fly from off a quick pace - he has just run 2 beyers over 105 from low 80's in sunland , surely these connections were doing something wrong at sunland or they weren't trying in the sunland races there is no other explanation

fact remains this horse just ran two very fast races and nothing in his form suggested before ky that he could do any of this

i would also add that MTB at this point is not a "fluke" - before RA was going to go to the preakness i said why not MTB , he can pair up and win again against this crop - yet the skeptics here claimed is was an abnormality

nbc also said on sat that he ran the fastest last qtr in the derby since Secretariat so this horse has to be a tremendous animal no matter what the beyers or rags say