Early Preakness odds peak thru Susie Double
 

Early ($138k in pool) Susan-Preakness Double wagering:

#7 Casanova Move with:

01 Big Drama - 61.80 (4th)
02 Mine/Bird - 80.20 (6th)
03 Musket Man- 83.40 (7th)
04 Luv Gov - 613.00 (12th)
05 Friesan Fire - 51.40 (3rd)
06 Terrain - 259.40 (10th)
07 Papa Clem - 79.20 (5th)
08 Genl Qrtrs - 187.00 (8th)
09 Pioneer - 46.00 (2nd)
10 Flying Pri - 515.80 (11th)
11 Take/Points - 187.20 (9th)
12 Tone/Down - 721.00 (13th)
13 Rachel Alex - 16.00 (1st)

I like Payton d'Oro with Papa Clem

although it is all hypothetical at this point, doesn't this make RA about even money - 6:5 at best?



Has anyone seen early advanced wagering odds yet?

Payton D' Oro with Big Drama, Mine That Bird and Fresian Fire offers good value

When I convert those odds to a 16% takeout, I get these odds, which make Rachel 9-5:

Big Drama 7.6
Mine That Bird 9.9
Musket Man 10.3
Luv Gov 77.4
Friesen Fire 6.3
Terrain 32.6
Papa Clem 9.8
General Quarters 23.4
Pioneerof the Nile 5.6
Flying Private 65.1
Take the Points 23.5
Tone It Down 91.1
Rachel Alexandra 1.8


--Dunbar

I understand your thinking, but IF Casanova Move goes off at ML 5:2 and pays 7.00, and the double is paying 16.00, would that mean the odds are about 6:5 at best

Right. I ignored Casanova Move's odds because I was only interested in the relative amounts of money bet on each Derby horse. I think using 5:2 for Casanova Move will give you too low an estimate for most of the Derby horses.

--Dunbar

Edit: I meant "for most of the Preakness horses". Also, I should have used 18%, not 16%, for the takeout.

Can someone post the payoffs in the BES/Preakness Double with #2 Payton D' Oro? Thanks in advance.

too much stress
 

I dutched Cassanova and Payton D'oro with Rachel and Friesan Fire. skewed toward Rachel a little

I'm in play for tomorrow.

I'll back this Double up with a tri key of Rachel Alexandra overBig Drama, Mine That Bird and Fresian Fire

Only other bet of the day is Arlington 10th, Sly Storm

If i wasn't trying to play so conservative, i would have just used Friesan Fire in the double , and backed my double up with that pick4 using rachel as a single. I just don't know how much that p4 will pay , even with the guarantee.


big drama scares me a little with what i have going i might use something with him

D,

Did you send me these finals maybe?

Big Drama - 7.8
Mine That Bird - 11.7
Musket Man - 10.2
Luv Gov - 94
Friesan Fire - 6.7
Terrain - 37.4
Papa Clem - 12.5
General Quarters - 24.0
Pioneerof the Nile - 6.3
Flying Private - 99
Take The Points - 28.7
Tone It Down - 117
Rachel Alexandra - 1.1

Thanks Bobby

I would have to believe that when the casual players money gets in the pool Mine That Bird's odds will come down some.

Black Eyed Susan/Preakness Probs
 

Anyone have the probables for the double?

Thanx in advance

odds as of Friday night (per DRF.com). I think RA only drifts up from here.


PREAKNESS EARLY BETTING

1. Big Drama - 9-1

2. Mine That Bird - 7-1

3. Musket Man - 18-1

4. Luv Gov - 25-1

5. Friesan Fire - 8-1

6. Terrain - 25-1

7. Papa Clem - 14-1

8. General Quarters - 17-1

9. Pioneerof the Nile - 7-1

10. Flying Private - 25-1

11. Take the Points - 14-1

12. Tone It Down - 19-1

13. Rachel Alexandra - 3-2

No, not me, Steve. Here's what I get using the will-pays with the Susan winner and making the takeout 18%:

Big Drama 7.2
Mine That Bird 10.2
Musket Man 9.6
Luv Gov 74.5
Friesen Fire 5.5
Terrain 31.7
Papa Clem 11.6
General Quarters 22.5
Pioneerof the Nile 6.4
Flying Private 82.6
Take the Points 25.9
Tone It Down 93.1
Rachel Alexandra 1.5

--Dunbar

Pretty damn close...

Not to be greedy, but I was expecting a better price at this "point" on Take the Points for exotics.

I dont get the allure of that horse, his one fast race looks like it was not as good as the rating, nothing he beat has done much, and his SA race was very average.

10 pnt, not that anyone here would ever read, care or remember my writings, but I almost always handicap and bet the Triple Crown races differently that I do any others during the year.

Truly, I play 'em more like a lottery and toss my normally accepted race betting logic aside. Not advocating the approach, but at least I truly always enjoy the Triple Crown race finishes, regardless of the winner.


I just really believe that Prado is going to have some way to hit the board with Take the Points tomorrow.

If the filly wins and Prado's not there, I'll be happy just the same.

Take The Points ran maybe his biggest race in the Sham. He made a couple runs at the Pamplemousse and held off the suck-up trips.

he could the hit the board.

this race is full of options