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-   -   who is a real threat to RA? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29687)

Bernardini 05-14-2009 05:36 PM

who is a real threat to RA?
 
imo, on paper there is no way RA loses but on the track, who would poses a real threat? How about Musket Man?

CSC 05-14-2009 05:47 PM

Really? I think she is taking a sigificant jump in class from her last race.

Indian Charlie 05-14-2009 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bernardini
imo, on paper there is no way RA loses but on the track, who would poses a real threat? How about Musket Man?

In no particular order.

God.
Other jockeys.
Her Jockey.
Stewards.

Bobby Fischer 05-14-2009 06:27 PM

friesan fire
pioneerof the nile
big drama

She sure looks invincible. What if she had run in the derby? Would she have been 8/5?

freddymo 05-14-2009 06:42 PM

While I expect she will win..She has been racing against and beating some suspect stock.. While this class of colts is absent its most talented colts they still are colts and several are grade 1 winners.. Mind you Rachel has only won 1 grade 1 against complete dog biscuits..

Coach Pants 05-14-2009 06:43 PM

Potn Or Ff Or Mm Or Ou812 Or My Fat F.uckin Fingers Get Tired So I Abbreviate Every F.ucking Horse Name.

HaloWishingwell 05-14-2009 06:45 PM

off the board

citycat 05-14-2009 06:46 PM

Musketman

rontheman1964 05-14-2009 06:49 PM

Is it possible for the field to pull "the old Smarty Jones" on her to get her beat? Big Drama goes out fast to see if she will chase. FF, Gen Quarters, et al stalk and run at her in the middle. POTN, MTB and others try to beat her on the wire. If they can gang up on her and make her run every step of the way, maybe one of them can get past her at the wire....I guess I'm just not anxious to take 8/5 or less on a filly with a big target on her back.

scat daddy 05-14-2009 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bernardini
imo, on paper there is no way RA loses but on the track, who would poses a real threat? How about Musket Man?

The man has shown up each and every time..great to see a hard knocking colt that gives his all each and every time.. however I think she has a few hurdles to jump to get to the circle be draped in Black eyed Susan's.
Very interested in seeing two horses in this race...FF & Take the Points. Think they are sitting on huge races.

Should be a great race for all to enjoy!

2Hot4TV 05-14-2009 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell
off the board

Bounce like a Super Ball

the_fat_man 05-14-2009 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rontheman1964
Is it possible for the field to pull "the old Smarty Jones" on her to get her beat? Big Drama goes out fast to see if she will chase. FF, Gen Quarters, et al stalk and run at her in the middle. POTN, MTB and others try to beat her on the wire. If they can gang up on her and make her run every step of the way, maybe one of them can get past her at the wire....I guess I'm just not anxious to take 8/5 or less on a filly with a big target on her back.

Hard to believe that the colts in the race are going to gang up on a filly. I suspect, if they take a liking to her, that most are going to want to follow her around the track.

sdjcom 05-14-2009 07:50 PM

if they go 47 and change she has a shot below 47 1st 1/2 she's done. look @ her pp over 1mile, I think POTN will move forward on a fast track with MTB and General Quarters plc/shw. if a bettor has some money they can afford to lose and risk with high rewards this is a good time to pitch her and bet against. too many factors against a low odds filly in with colts, can she win yes, will she win i doubt it. good-luck to all ps. i picked curlin to beat RTR lol...

skippy3481 05-14-2009 08:12 PM

If she rates into the pace big drama sets, everyone is running for second

Hoist Her Flag 05-14-2009 08:16 PM

Why is it the Smarty Jones Ploy? If she can't rate and win she not good enough. The other 12 horses don't have to roll over and give her the rail like they did Mine that Bird in Kentucky.

sdjcom 05-14-2009 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
If she rates into the pace big drama sets, everyone is running for second

she will rate off of Big Drama or anyone else who's frisky, my point is a 47 and up you are probably right, if they dare go 46 and a tick or two she's done. i don't think she can goe a 46 for a 1/2 mile and beat this colts.

skippy3481 05-14-2009 08:21 PM

I'm going to say it one for time. If she rates off the pace, she will win. If they are going 46 for the half, shes not rating, if she runs her race she will win. You can't say that for anyone else.

sdjcom 05-14-2009 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
I'm going to say it one for time. If she rates off the pace, she will win. If they are going 46 for the half, shes not rating, if she runs her race she will win. You can't say that for anyone else.

i understand what you are saying, but to be up stalking with Big Drama i would say she have to go fast or rate 4-5 horses back. they are not going to let her go easy early right off the leaders imo. i think this will be the fastest 1/2 mile we have seen in a while for a big race i think she will have to go a fast 1/2 mile to get position from the 13 hole. she cannot win 6-7 horses back 3 wide period

sdjcom 05-14-2009 08:38 PM

RA
 
everybody talking about her 20 lenght win , impressive, Calvin did even move on her, do you really think she will run and look like that Sat? there will be a big surprise coming for all the guys and girls betting the milk money on her. GO BIG POTN

eajinabi 05-14-2009 08:52 PM

Those horses better be nice to her. They may breed to her someday

sdjcom 05-14-2009 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eajinabi
Those horses better be nice to her. They may breed to her someday

i hear ya, i think most of the trainers and jockeys are worried more about MTB coming late than RA up front.

rontheman1964 05-14-2009 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
everybody talking about her 20 lenght win , impressive, Calvin did even move on her, do you really think she will run and look like that Sat? there will be a big surprise coming for all the guys and girls betting the milk money on her. GO BIG POTN


I agree totally. The 20 length win was ultra-impressive, but I don't think she can re-produce that race coming right back. I think it's a golden opportunity to find a more than generous priced winner and even play some tickets with her off of the board.

Indian Charlie 05-14-2009 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
i hear ya, i think most of the trainers and jockeys are worried more about MTB coming late than RA up front.

Uh, yeah, right.

The only ones worrying more about that will be the connections of MTB.

eajinabi 05-15-2009 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Uh, yeah, right.

The only ones worrying more about that will be the connections of MTB.

Not really, they happy just to "light up the board"

JerseyJ 05-15-2009 12:48 AM

Pioneerof the Nile stinks...he ran the same typically average race that he always ran, and on top of that, should have finished lower had he not impeded a few other horses. Pioneerof the Nile will be off the board in the Preakness, that much I am confident about. As for the rest, who knows how it will play out.

Bernardini 05-15-2009 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ
Pioneerof the Nile stinks...he ran the same typically average race that he always ran, and on top of that, should have finished lower had he not impeded a few other horses. Pioneerof the Nile will be off the board in the Preakness, that much I am confident about. As for the rest, who knows how it will play out.

i disagree, i think he is very consistent, at least this year... he has palced ahead of all top 3yo colts (except QR). If he is average? what does that say about the competion?

blackthroatedwind 05-15-2009 07:27 AM

Am I the only one that noticed a first time poster named Scat Daddy.....and in a thread started by Bernardini no less?

Somebody bring back the Chalkeaters Anonymous thread.

TheSpyder 05-15-2009 07:32 AM

he only think that will get in her way is traffic or the finish line.

If it's the first, I'm taking a stab on Terrian. If it's the second, bye bye!

Gate Dancer 05-15-2009 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eajinabi
Those horses better be nice to her. They may breed to her someday

The closest any of these colts will get to her is on the track Saturday. None of these will get within miles of her at the breeding shed.

As for the race, I agree it will be a 3 pronged attack keeping her honest...........Big Drama and Take The Points early, Pioneer and Friesen Fire on the far turn and Musket Man and Mine That Bird in the stretch. I'm playing against her.

knickslions2 05-15-2009 08:09 AM

Papa Clem baby is ready to win this one!!

kgar311 05-15-2009 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
if they go 47 and change she has a shot below 47 1st 1/2 she's done. look @ her pp over 1mile, I think POTN will move forward on a fast track with MTB and General Quarters plc/shw. if a bettor has some money they can afford to lose and risk with high rewards this is a good time to pitch her and bet against. too many factors against a low odds filly in with colts, can she win yes, will she win i doubt it. good-luck to all ps. i picked curlin to beat RTR lol...

Let me save everyone money and give a simple tip. GENERAL QUARTERS IS NOT A GOOD HORSE SAVE YOUR MONEY AND PLACE IT ELSE WHERE, THE HORSE WILL NOT HIT THE BOARD. GUARANTEED!!!

skippy3481 05-15-2009 09:32 AM

SDJ
She wont be rating 5 or 6 horses back she will be in the top 3 just not sitting on big dramas flank. If they go 46 for the half. There wont be many horses around her. They will all be sitting back and stalking. If rachel is at the front of this group, which she should be, then you wont stop her. If she can sit third off the speed horses, she will win for fun.

Clip-Clop 05-15-2009 10:00 AM

Breeding?
 
Not really sure any of these are the type that would get bred to the likes of her.
:{>:

alysheba4 05-15-2009 10:02 AM

i am going F.F / DRAMA / M.T.B.....in a tri box. as a big pioneer fan i finally realized what alot of people have been saying for the past six weeks.......he lacks a burst. general quarters? seems like a slow horse. if the filly wins, so be it.

sdjcom 05-15-2009 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Uh, yeah, right.

The only ones worrying more about that will be the connections of MTB.

ok Tonto, who do you like or what's your view on the preakness. you rarely say anything of an opinion just snide comments.

sdjcom 05-15-2009 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
SDJ
She wont be rating 5 or 6 horses back she will be in the top 3 just not sitting on big dramas flank. If they go 46 for the half. There wont be many horses around her. They will all be sitting back and stalking. If rachel is at the front of this group, which she should be, then you wont stop her. If she can sit third off the speed horses, she will win for fun.

Iv'e explained my view twice about the fractions at the 1/2 and to look at her pp races over a mile, sorry you don't understand this. :wf good -luck Tommorrow

Thunder Gulch 05-15-2009 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rontheman1964
I agree totally. The 20 length win was ultra-impressive, but I don't think she can re-produce that race coming right back. I think it's a golden opportunity to find a more than generous priced winner and even play some tickets with her off of the board.

She doesn't have to reproduce that effort to win by open lengths.

slotdirt 05-15-2009 11:21 AM

Is anybody else thinking a part back wheel with Mine that Bird in third might be the bet here?

johnny pinwheel 05-15-2009 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
She doesn't have to reproduce that effort to win by open lengths.

no kidding, shes got to run better than the last out. did you see what she beat? i think 2 or 3 of them were lucases second stringers and the one good horse scratched. the horses she beat would not finish in the same zip code with these. if people are thinking shes just going to gallop in the front like the last couple races they are sadly mistakened. i think the pace will be her undoing along with the distance. then again i'll never bet short priced fillies because they win about every 20 years or so in one of these things. i can't take that when the betting pattern on her will create overlays. she will have to prove me wrong tommorrow. its not like i have not heard all this before and seen the filly fail at a crappy price.

Antitrust32 05-15-2009 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
no kidding, shes got to run better than the last out. did you see what she beat? i think 2 or 3 of them were lucases second stringers and the one good horse scratched. the horses she beat would not finish in the same zip code with these. if people are thinking shes just going to gallop in the front like the last couple races they are sadly mistakened. i think the pace will be her undoing along with the distance. then again i'll never bet short priced fillies because they win about every 20 years or so in one of these things. i can't take that when the betting pattern on her will create overlays. she will have to prove me wrong tommorrow. its not like i have not heard all this before and seen the filly fail at a crappy price.


She can regress a few lengths and still win... who cares about her competition that she destroyed by what looked like the length of a football field. Did you see her fractional times and the final time of the race? It was outstanding and I dont think any 3yo male, including Quality Road would have beat her in the Oaks that day with those strong fractions and final time.


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