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-   -   5/9: Belmont/Hollywood (P4's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29598)

Kasept 05-09-2009 06:16 AM

5/9: Belmont/Hollywood (P4's)
 
Another rotten weather day washed Churchill's late races away entirely, and might as well have done the same at Belmont. Off the turf demolished the late quad, though improbable $30 Contessa horse in the 7th, longest number of 5 running, boosted the P4 into a more generous $170.

Back to Belmont today with good Peter Pan the highlight within the $350k guaranteed P4, and glance at Hollywood 4 as well where intriguing LeRoy is the feature.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Cabaret Cowboy 3-1: Away since fall; 2nd in Musket Man's maidenbreaker.. WON
Best Value: #1e Frankel entry 10-1: Both make real dirt debuts here.. 5th/7th
Next Best: #3 Ricoriatoa 6-1: Moves to organic surface and adds hood.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Abu Racer 30-1: Big number gets blinks: 21% W move for Assaf.. 9th


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) SCR
Best Value: #7 Captain Backfire 6-1: Circling back to good effort.. 5th
Next Best: #10 Millirock 9-2: Telegraphs intent by recalling Ramon.. 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Come Soon 10-1: DiPrima wheels turf/dirt in 10 days.. 3rd


9th: 56th Peter Pan (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Brave Victory 8-1: Toss poly run; Value if one turn 9f suits.. 3rd
Most Likely: #6 Imperial Council 2-1: Underlay number on bad paddock actor.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Charitable Man 3-1: Blue Grass ill-advised; Obvious if back to 2yo form..
Exotics Use: #1 Stately Character 15-1: Seems certain to pick up pieces late.. 7th


10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #3 Longing for Malibu 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #5 SCR
Next Best: #10 John Wyatt 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Monastir 12-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-9
8: 1-7-10
9: 3-4-6
10: 3-10

4x3x3x2 = $72



HOLLYWOOD PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Pretty damn good starter ALW.. After the top pick, it's a grab bag...

Most Likely: #12 Deluxe Cat 3-1 WON
Best Value: #11 My Man Sumo 10-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Turkish Victory 6-1 9th
Super Add: #2 My King 8-1 7th


7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Wild Diplomat 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Victory Pete 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Indian Sun 6-1 6th


8th: 30th Mervyn Leroy H. (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rail Trip 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Aggie Engineer 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Ball Four 6-1 WON


9th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Hidden Trail 3-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Egypt 4-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Holladay Road 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Caspian 6-1 7th
High 5 Play: #10 Kumiva 6-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 10-11-12
7: 5-6
8: ALL
9: 6-8

3x2x6x2 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (12--6-3-8) Paid $811.90


Good luck!
Steve

Holland Hacker 05-09-2009 07:32 AM

Is it safe to assume that they'll be OFF THE TURF today? We had overnight rain and i assume that it also hit Belmont.

docicu3 05-09-2009 07:37 AM

Is the weather holding enough for turf racing?

MaTH716 05-09-2009 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
Is the weather holding enough for turf racing?

Probably not, looks like another damp one here on the Tri state area.
Did you get any sleep last night?

gales0678 05-09-2009 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Cabaret Cowboy 3-1: Away since fall; 2nd in Musket Man's maidenbreaker..
Best Value: #1e Frankel entry 10-1: Both make real dirt debuts here..
Next Best: #3 Ricoriatoa 6-1: Moves to organic surface and adds hood..
Exotics Use: #9 Abu Racer 30-1: Big number gets blinks: 21% W move for Assaf..


steve - i asked the old guy at the beverly hills hotel about these 2 and he told me they were a bunch of crows:D :D i told him i wasn't buying it ...they'll be on my ticket too

Bigsmc 05-09-2009 09:39 AM

Am I wasting my time looking at these turf races?

VOL JACK 05-09-2009 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Another rotten weather day washed Churchill's late races away entirely, and might as well have done the same at Belmont. Off the turf demolished the late quad, though improbable $30 Contessa horse in the 7th, longest number of 5 running, boosted the P4 into a more generous $170.

Back to Belmont today with good Peter Pan the highlight within the $350k guaranteed P4, and glance at Hollywood 4 as well where intriguing LeRoy is the feature.


BELMONT PARK


Congrats to Contessa for getting off the duck....Great Trainer.:rolleyes:

Kasept 05-09-2009 10:18 AM

BELMONT P4 SCR'S

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

7

4 Big Stack Early


10

1 Pernice Early
5 Burnished Copper Early
8 Mind Boggling Early
12 Winloc's Saint Ray Early
13 Orient Song Early
14 Compliance Officer Early

asudevil 05-09-2009 10:37 AM

Stevie B. cappin The Wood!!!!

atolunch 05-09-2009 12:08 PM

Steve,

In the 7th at Belmont, you use the #9 Abu Race in your write ups and as an exotic add, but use the #8 Bimini (7-2) with Prado in the P4. Just curious if this was intentional or accident.

Thanks as always for your insights and plays, and belated congrats on your great P4 score the other day!

Here's to cashing again today, BOL.

Kasept 05-09-2009 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch
Steve,

In the 7th at Belmont, you use the #9 Abu Race in your write ups and as an exotic add, but use the #8 Bimini (7-2) with Prado in the P4. Just curious if this was intentional or accident.

Thanks as always for your insights and plays, and belated congrats on your great P4 score the other day!

Here's to cashing again today, BOL.

The 9.. Thx! And thx re: Thurs.

G/L today...

Derby Barbie is dragging me out on Garden Center run... :rolleyes:

pointman 05-09-2009 02:33 PM

Belmont 6th:

$20EXB 2,12
$1 super 2,12/2,11,12/2,3,8,11,12/2,3,8,11,12

Good Luck!

XIIPointStables 05-09-2009 02:58 PM

Jumping into the Belmont P4:

1,5,6,8
1,9 - the 8 as PTF
3,6
3,10,15

Good luck!

$48 play
$110 winner

Lucky hit getting the 8...get chalky! Kept me out of the race to race trouble I would have been in.

hi_im_god 05-09-2009 04:34 PM

is it possible someone might not be alive in this p4?

i'm praying i get my $54 back.

dagolfer33 05-09-2009 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables
Jumping into the Belmont P4:

1,5,6,8
1,9
3,6
3,10,15

Good luck!

Winner:tro:

Rudeboyelvis 05-09-2009 05:29 PM

Holly P4

9,10,12//5,6//1,3,4,6//6,8,10

72.00 811.90

TitanSooner 05-09-2009 05:36 PM

hol late p4

6: 6,9,12
7: 6
8: 1,4
9: 1,5,6,7,8

$30.. GL

Ronnie 05-09-2009 06:42 PM

Nice play in the 8th, Steve. Good luck in the 9th at Hollywood.

3kings 05-09-2009 06:46 PM

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 10-11-12
7: 5-6
8: ALL
9: 6-8

3x2x6x2 = $72





Steve,
Great use of the all button, good luck in the nite cap.


edit........congrats Steve

Rudeboyelvis 05-09-2009 07:14 PM

NICE!!! 811.00 great job Steve!!!

3kings 05-09-2009 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Holly P4

9,10,12//5,6//1,3,4,6//6,8,10

72.00 811.90

Nice job Dan!

MaTH716 05-09-2009 07:16 PM

Great Job Steve & Rude. Congrats!
Way to carry it over Rude! What is that 3 out of the last 4 pick 4's at Hollywood. Awesome capping!

pointman 05-09-2009 07:19 PM

Nice job, Steve!! Pat and I split your ticket for some post Belmont action, turned a good day into a great day!! :$: :$:

Rudeboyelvis 05-09-2009 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings
Nice job Dan!

Thanks Tom

Rudeboyelvis 05-09-2009 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716
Great Job Steve & Rude. Congrats!
Way to carry it over Rude! What is that 3 out of the last 4 pick 4's at Hollywood. Awesome capping!

Thnx Bro - I think I've hit more P4's here in the last 24 hours than the entire meet at Tampa :zz:

pmacdaddy 05-09-2009 07:23 PM

Great job Steve & RBE!!!

We jumped on board for some Hollywood action.

Thanks!

Bogey 05-09-2009 07:28 PM

Steve & Rude, Nice going.

Steve, I really like the way you spread in the small field featured race (Ball Four). Congrats. I remember you finished the last Hollywood meeting on fire. Nice week and we still have tomorrow.

jms62 05-09-2009 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Holly P4

9,10,12//5,6//1,3,4,6//6,8,10

72.00 811.90

Nice Job

sdjcom 05-09-2009 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Thanks Tom

way to go money bags, you and Steve should just move to Ca. :$: congrats

Rootdog1 05-09-2009 09:50 PM

very very well played. congrats

Heels1989 05-09-2009 11:16 PM

Steve and Dan

Congrats on the nice score. :$:

Kasept 05-10-2009 05:57 AM

Dan.. Well done! Like you, I enjoy this HollyPark meet...

Guys... THX very much! Learned my lesson on the short field Wednesday in the Churchill P6. I liked Ball Four a little anyway, but almost anyone in there could have won that feature so the 'all' seemed prudent. Felt like the right call given that Deluxe Cat was standing out in the 6th, and it looked like only 2 could win either the 7th and 9th.

Bigsmc 05-10-2009 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716
Great Job Steve & Rude. Congrats!
Way to carry it over Rude! What is that 3 out of the last 4 pick 4's at Hollywood. Awesome capping!

:tro: :tro:

RBE is rolling.

asudevil 05-10-2009 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil
Stevie B. cappin The Wood!!!!

Stevie B. should keep cappin' Inglewood!!

philcski 05-10-2009 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Dan.. Well done! Like you, I enjoy this HollyPark meet...

Guys... THX very much! Learned my lesson on the short field Wednesday in the Churchill P6. I liked Ball Four a little anyway, but almost anyone in there could have won that feature so the 'all' seemed prudent. Felt like the right call given that Deluxe Cat was standing out in the 6th, and it looked like only 2 could win either the 7th and 9th.

Similar situation at BEL today in the 4th... early p4, I'm sure a lot of people will talk themselves into singling the 4, and he probably isn't winning, and of them can win- and there's other singles available in the sequence, just a matter of hitting the right one (or two.)


Great job on HOL/CD the last few days nonetheless.


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