Weekend Beyers (Genl Qrtrs 95; Papa Clem 101)
 

KEE-Blue Grass: GENERAL QUARTERS 95
KEE-Shakertown: HERO'S REWARD 96
KEE-Jenny Wiley: FOREVER TOGETHER 98
KEE-Commonwealth: ETERNAL STAR 97
KEE-Maker's Mark Mile: MR. SIDNEY 100
KEE-Madison: INFORMED DECISION 102
KEE-Beaumont: WAR KILL 90

OP-Arkansas Derby: PAPA CLEM 101
OP-Count Fleet Turf Sprint: SEMAPHORE MAN 94
OP-Northern Spur: DANCE CALLER 84
OP-Instant Racing: PAYTON D'ORO 82
OP-Fifth Season: STONEHOUSE 95

AQU-Comely: DREAM PLAY 89

GP-South Beach: RAW SILK 96

SA-La Puente: BATTLE OF HASTINGS 90
SA-Santa Lucia (R): CHAMPAGNE EYES 87
SA-Las Cienagas: GOTTA HAVE HER 98

HAW-Bonasera: SHADOWBDANCING 100


Others:

AQU-OC/N2x-FORMAL KING 107
AQU Mdn Clm (R)-GRAPHITE HALO 64

I wish the Beyer folks would just not assign a race a # ,like the Maker's Mark, instead of making a total GUESS.

Yeah - I always wondered why they don't put a question mark next to some of the tougher figures to make.

25.92, 51.83, 1:17.12, 1:40.80, 1:46.93
Forever Together did a wonderful job to attain a respectable beyer considering the snail's pace in the Jenny Wiley.

Forevever Together was more impressive than Mr. Sidney...

Then again, those that actually pay attention to how these things are made will have an advantage when they run back, likely in the Woodford Reserve. Just because a 100 makes it fit best doesn't mean it's right.

I hardly buy the DRF anymore, other than for the news, because of numbers like this.

It would appear as though the Arkansas Derby Beyer is a 101 now.

http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp


As I mentioned - it's always a little tricky making 9f figures for Oaklawn Park when it's the only race carded that day at the distance because of the way the stretch run is configured ... but I got a 98 ... one point lower than the 99 they came out with on Monday.

That means that the 3rd place finisher - who was 15 lengths out of it after a quarter mile - now has his number upgraded to a 99. That's an interesting horse ... a 3rd time starter still elidigble for N1X alw races with major stamina breeding for an obscure - but obviously competent trainer in Tim Ice. His Ark Derby start was just the 100th start in Tim Ice's training career. He started training in 2008.

His low profile jock couldn't even make the 118lbs weight assignment for the race. Hard to say how much horse he is or isn't .. but it can't be that flattering to Old Fashioned or Papa Clem that a lightly raced horse like that was eating up as much ground on them as he was. Strong pace and all.

I wonder if Summer Bird is looking at a jockey change soon...?

i don't think it was much of a race, considering as you said the third place runner. i know POTN fans think the papa clem win further flatters him, but i would have to disagree. i think hands down the best horse out of oaklawn this year is headed to the oaks.

No doubt about that.
I'm not a Pioneer fan but I don't see how the results of Papa Clem and IWR can do anything but flatter him.

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

Yep. All you can do is use stuff like pedigree, running style, and the trainers past management of said horse to project into grey areas.

But you never know until they try it.

Pioneer of the Nile has worked nine times on dirt before anyway ... including 3 times in fairly pokey time from the gate. That was with Mott - I'm sure Baffert will have him working much sharper now when he gets back on dirt.

I don't think anyone is saying it moves him up for sure. But the fact that those two horses have gone on to win some very important races speaks well to the quality of horses that he's beaten. I'm not sure how anyone can dispute that fact. While people can question the quality of competition that IWR was beating in NY, we can question how strong the Arkansas Derby was, we can question what was down in Louisiana....we can't question that Pioneer was beating some really good horses. Whether he will move up or down or stay the same is to be seen. But I don't think those subsequent performances by his vanquished foes hurts him at all and they would make anyone take a second look at him. I guarantee that if IWR and Papa Clem had come to the dirt and flopped, EVERYONE would be pointing to that and saying "see, you can't trust the form of those Cali horses on the junk." GUARANTEED.

i agree, and have said the same in the past. some go purely by the win for papa clem to say it flatters-but since i don't think much of the race, i don't think much of the win anyway-a double whammy.

IWR is a good dirt horse-that doesn't mean anything one way or the other regarding his synthetic surface. you're assuming he's really good on synthetic, and that potn is a better horse because he's beaten revenge. but what if IWR is actually a really bad syn horse?

and you can't trust their form on synthetics. you can use their pp's for future synthetic racing, but i would never use it to translate what i think they'd do on dirt.

I think I Want Revenge is a total bum on synthetic tracks.

His dream trip 3rd in the Bob Lewis was a gruesomely bad performance.

lol
not what i'm saying at all. but all those cali horses only have that surface to run on-i wonder how many would shine if put elsewhere? or would do poorly for that matter.
potn could turn out to be great on dirt, and turn out to be the best three year old. but i just don't see that one of his competitors form on dirt tells you a thing about what POTN would do on the same surface.

Wasn't Rosier the jock on that HBO special with Sellers and Romero a few years back?

I thought he might be ... the ass shot scene in that was uncalled for.

The dude was pigging down on burgers and fries in that show if I recall .. big shock he couldn't make the 118lbs he needed to in the Arkansas Derby.

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

Rosier was the one from the HBO special.

Tim Ice also went out on his own at Louisiana Downs last May/June and began very slowly while training mostly claimers. He has clearly stepped up his game in 2009 winning at a 18% clip.

NT

no

i think my biggest problem about synthetics is most of those cali horses won't ever get a shot to run on anything else. maybe none of them really like it-but someone has to win, finish second, etc.

take the big cap-einstein was the class of the field, but since he had prior turf form, i thought he would be able to handle the surface and the competition-which turned out to be the case.

then you have a horse like sulamani-seemingly the class of the field. but the distance wasn't his best, and he didn't care for firm turf. he ran third in the arlington million, but moved up when stevens' horse veered out af the finish. but all of those factors combined were too much for the horse to overcome.

we've all seen a good horse who detested a surface overcome everything and manage to win. but i think far more often, you have a horse with proven ability on one surface who just can't get it done on another. curlin proved able only to win on dirt. he hit the board in his attempts on other surfaces-a testament to his ability i'm sure. but i think wagering wise, i'd take a horse proven vs competition and proven to be good on a surface over one who has never run on-especially if it's the derby.

also, keep in mind that every horse dapples out, works well and looks great-best shape ever! when leading up to the derby.

pioneer may end up doing just fine at churchill-but i'll take a horse that doesn't have more questions than answers.

I agree with Steve on POTN. Just b/c other Cal horses have done well on the real thing doesn't mean anything about how he will do on it...I will be playing against POTN more as a hunch than anything else.

play against
 

And I will play against Quality Road because of the "surface" he ran on.

care to expand on your own opinion with facts or just follow blindly behind what one ranting, disappointed trainer had to say in the heat of the moment?

my Opinion
 

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all. I watched every race at Gulfstream this meet. I have also watched every race at Santa Anita this meet. I'm not fooled by all those "closers" at Santa Anita like Evita, Stardom, Pioneer, and many other horses who were ridicously in last place half way down the stretch and found a way to win. No other track in the country can you do that! The move that Just Ben made in that first race that day a huge move to open up a quick 3 length lead and then hold on to the victory told me something was up. No I do not believe that Big Drama is that game of a horse, I also think the Quality Road race was a 2 horse race. Dunkirk did his think from behind and Q. Road got a paid workout. I will bet 2 horses 2 win in the Derby. One of them will not be Quality Road.

If Curlin had kept on turf, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he would have won a GI race in the United States before he ended his career last year.

Not 100% sure this isn't a bit to black and white..While I certainly agree with most of this, you do have to give POTN a few class points.. This was the party line on Zenyatta as well until she won the Apple Blossum.. I am thinking we are all dissing POTN to much and although many don't want ANY part of him I am thinking he is at least 4th choice.. I think his last is a pretty good indication he has some class. That was a horror show and weird trip and although he was not in any MOTO trouble he certainly was way out of his desired element.. The problem is he will be overbet because of Baffert and his record in the Derby.. At 10 to 1 or better he would certainly be betable

So did Good Reward... The grass stock in the states especially the handicap division SUX

"The Robot"... That's great.






I laughed.

I have no probs with the opinion of standing against Quality Road if you do so. However, the explanation that GP was strongly speed biased based on how a 3/2 shot who was 4-5 lengths better than his field on paper won easily in the first is flimsy at best.

One horse paid more than $10 on Fl Derby day ($10.20 2nd choice in the Nicanor race.) You will see this phenomenon a lot on the Aqu IDT- favorites win race after race and it appears to be biased towards frontrunners when in fact the horses chasing them just weren't very good, and are just as inept when moving back to the main track that doesn't have the supposed bias that day had. Keep this in mind when judging the performances on Fl Derby day.

It's a great nickname. Watching an interview of him, you half expect someone to be pressing buttons on his back with canned responses.

If we assume that PC and IWR were "latent" dirt horses spinning their wheels (albeit very quickly) on the synthetics, why can we not make the leap of faith that POTN might be also?
Were the improvements shown by PC and IWR surface driven or just the progression of good 3yo's improving well under good care? When you take into account that some players who use and analyze figs feel that Beyers are about 4-5 points too low on Syth, in general, them those two colts really didn't leap forward very much.

I understand that handicappers are negative on POTN in part because they have no data on which to assess him as a Derby horse with the surface switch. If this was one of last season's leading Euro 2yo's and he was coming to the KY Derby we'd be faced with the same challenge. We'd have to do what we always do. What are the trainer's stats with this move? Has he done this before? How is the horse bred? Does his running style suit the switch? Most of all, what is an acceptable price relative to risk?

Just look at Curlin... was a monster on dirt and not the same on grass or synthetics.

that basically proves was Kasept and Ziggy are saying.

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

I'm hoping Pioneer is the real deal as he is my hometown horse but I do acknowledge the concerns over the surface switch and his "slow" Beyers. But it is almost comical how all the experts declare that IWR and PC are "obviously" better on dirt--and that Take the Points (also beaten by Pioneer) is "obviously" worse on synthetics. I could understand being cautious about Pioneer until he runs on dirt, but I don't understand the wide disregard for him given the horses he's beaten.

And don't get me started on some of the love-fests for Chocolate Candy, who will also "obviously" move up on dirt.:rolleyes:

Papa Clem is about as good on dirt as he is on synthetic tracks. Even though his sire Smart Strike is also the sire of confirmed synthetic track haters Curlin and Fabulous Strike ... and both Papa Clem's dam and 2nd were Grade 1 winners on real dirt.

Take the Points is also as "good" on synthetic as he is on dirt.

I Want Revenge is light years better on dirt than synthetic. I would load up on Take the Points against IWR on a syn track.

you are being silly. I said "and that proves was Kasept and Ziggy were saying"

Which was... you dont know whats going to happen.

And the Curlin example does prove that.

I never said or implied that the Curlin example means all horses who run well on dirt will suck on synthetics.. or vise versa.

Nobody knows what POTN is going to do on dirt. He could love it, like it, or hate it. But you cant say just because IWR and Papa Clem like the dirt that means POTN will...

that is what my post was about.


Edit: So basically.. the people who bet on POTN in the Derby will have no idea how this horse will take to the surface (like DrugS said, water is wet). Its a bigger gamble than betting on horses who already have established their dirt form. But than again betting is a risk vs reward situation... and POTN odds may be to low to be worth the risk.

The unknown factor, POTN has beaten both Papa Clem and IWR, they have both come back to win big races, but on dirt, So to me common sense says take a good long look at POTN on Derby Day, no guarantees here, but HE does deserve a good long look, and if Baffert works him at Churchill Downs and he works like he does at Home, WATCH OUT