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-   -   Thompson SERIOUSLY BLEW IT (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28966)

the_fat_man 04-11-2009 08:17 PM

Thompson SERIOUSLY BLEW IT
 
When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its projeced last quarter a FULL SECOND faster than its previous one, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

Danzig 04-11-2009 08:18 PM

i think rick porter blew it by changing jocks. wouldn't be the first time.

philcski 04-11-2009 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its last 1/8th in what projects to be a FULL SECOND faster than its previous quarter, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...

Danzig 04-11-2009 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Oaklawn is notorious for producing odd fractions at a mile and an eighth. The horse just doesn't know how to 'turn off' and relax. He has a lot of talent but if he's ever going to stretch out he's got to stop running off early in longer races. The horses that ran with him early finished last and second last...

i think old fashioned will do ok at shorter, but i don't think he's a mile and a quarter horse. someone said go to the met mile, i agree!

King Glorious 04-11-2009 08:25 PM

My respect for Old Fashioned ability went up 100% after today. He's a game horse with a lot of talent. That said, I don't think they should go to the Derby. No point. The Mile Mile is crying out for him and he'd have a real shot at that race. Also, as Philski mentioned, that downhill finish at Oaklawn often produces weird finishing times.

Danzig 04-11-2009 08:29 PM

i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

Coach Pants 04-11-2009 08:30 PM

And this is shocking?

The guy was mediocre at Ellis Park year in and year out. Of course he's going to nut up in a big money race.

Bobby Fischer 04-11-2009 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
When your horse, that had the lead and was passed, runs its projeced last quarter a FULL SECOND faster than its previous one, in other words, has enough to ACCELERATE to the wire, it follows that you've WAITED TOO LONG to shake it up.

This is almost exactly what happened to Hard Spun in the Derby.

This is an interesting take.

The contrary opinion would be that OF finished well because of the slower penultimate quarter.

I think he could have asked earlier and he would have had the added benefit of not having Papa Clem "weighing down on him" from the outside the length of the stretch. Take it a step further and he could have come off the rail a little bit as well...

interesting that Papa Clem gets up to even terms while Thompson (red cap) is peeking behind him

Danzig 04-11-2009 08:36 PM

i can't believe old fashioned got bet down like that.

Bobby Fischer 04-11-2009 08:38 PM

It was a weak field on paper

Travis Stone 04-11-2009 08:47 PM

In terms of Beyer's it was basically a two horse race, with Win Willy's big number under consideration as well.

Bobby Fischer 04-11-2009 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
In terms of Beyer's it was basically a two horse race, with Win Willy's big number under consideration as wel.

I underestimated PC after he was beaten so easily on a moderate-paced lead in the slop. Maybe he hates the slop? Maybe FF is that much better ?

KirisClown 04-11-2009 08:57 PM

Old Fashioned won't be racing anywhere for a while..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

tbonds 04-11-2009 09:07 PM

Old Fashion and Win Willy are good 2 tier Horses. By looking back, Willies only big race was the Rebel. Other than that 35k,30k,15k races. I was fooled.
Old Fashion if he goes to the Derby need to find a great Jockey that can do the horse some justice.Now PC will make a splash.

mclem0822 04-11-2009 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown
Old Fashioned won't be racing anywhere for a while..

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

I'm sorry for Larry Jones, I'm glad it isn't life threatening.

tbonds 04-11-2009 09:18 PM

What the story with Old Fashion?

Travis Stone 04-11-2009 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbonds
Old Fashion and Win Willy are good 2 tier Horses. By looking back, Willies only big race was the Rebel. Other than that 35k,30k,15k races. I was fooled.
Old Fashion if he goes to the Derby need to find a great Jockey that can do the horse some justice.Now PC will make a splash.

Old Fashioned is a really good race horse... because he's not 10 furlong Derby material doesn't mean he's not grade one. To me, he would have King's Bishop written all over him, unfortunately, he's hurt/out.

King Glorious 04-11-2009 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbonds
What the story with Old Fashion?

His career is over. Non-displaced slab fracture in his right knee.

PeteMugg 04-11-2009 09:23 PM

Very sorry to read about Old Fashioned's injury. But I thought this race was over from the beginning as for as OF is concerned. The last thing I expected with that post was a sprint to the lead and hanging up such a number for the first quarter. Especially after the jock change.

Bobby Fischer 04-11-2009 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
His career is over. Non-displaced slab fracture in his right knee.

please link to this updated decision to definitely retire him.

tbonds 04-11-2009 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
His career is over. Non-displaced slab fracture in his right knee.

I can see why Larry could be sick.
So will PC be the only one coming out of the Arkansas series?
Wiily is done.

mclem0822 04-11-2009 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbonds
I can see why Larry could be sick.
So will PC be the only one coming out of the Arkansas series?
Wiily is done.

Willy may have regressed was not unexpected, but I thought he still closed pretty well to get 4th. Robertson says he will run all day, he could bounce back.

DaTruth 04-11-2009 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

It is uphill late on the far turn and early stretch.

ateamstupid 04-11-2009 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i thought it was uphill?? lol hell, i've seen it said both ways, so who knows?

For the last time, it's downhill (in deep stretch at least).

:{>:

King Glorious 04-11-2009 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
For the last time, it's downhill (in deep stretch at least).

:{>:

Guaranteed this won't be the last time. Next year when another horse runs a final 8th in 11 and change, we'll revisit it.

slotdirt 04-11-2009 10:23 PM

Wow, that is some crappy news on Old Fashioned. The horse had guts today.

mclem0822 04-11-2009 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Wow, that is some crappy news on Old Fashioned. The horse had guts today.

I agree, he was really game. I wonder at what point the injury happened.

Danzig 04-11-2009 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
For the last time, it's downhill (in deep stretch at least).

:{>:


you sure about that part? folks are still talking on here about the tight turns at pimlico.

Danzig 04-11-2009 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822
I agree, he was really game. I wonder at what point the injury happened.

the cynic in me would say after he lost...but i'm sure that's not it. no telling really when.

DaTruth 04-11-2009 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822
I agree, he was really game. I wonder at what point the injury happened.

What about the injury to Porter's ego. Now he will have to share the limelight with those Vinery folks.

Danzig 04-11-2009 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth
What about the injury to Porter's ego. Now he will have to share the limelight with those Vinery folks.

perhaps they can get him not to wear a loud red sportscoat...


yeah, right.

DaTruth 04-11-2009 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
perhaps they can get him not to wear a loud red sportscoat...


yeah, right.

At least he gets his Fox Hill silks worn for the big dance. There will be no change until the next loss by FF.

johnny pinwheel 04-12-2009 06:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i can't believe old fashioned got bet down like that.

why? i knew he would be really short again. he lost because of the jockey, remember? so they put a new jockey on him and he lost again. what? the jockey blew it again. what a joke, the horse ain't that good, get over it ! i wish he didn't get hurt because suckers would of bet him again. maybe he would of got a third jock and the results would of been same.

Danzig 04-12-2009 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
why? i knew he would be really short again. he lost because of the jockey, remember? so they put a new jockey on him and he lost again. what? the jockey blew it again. what a joke, the horse ain't that good, get over it ! i wish he didn't get hurt because suckers would of bet him again. maybe he would of got a third jock and the results would of been same.

i surely hope you're not telling me to get over it. i never thought of this guy as derby material, and was shocked he was at even-but i guess there's no accounting for taste with some folks and their money.

johnny pinwheel 04-12-2009 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i surely hope you're not telling me to get over it. i never thought of this guy as derby material, and was shocked he was at even-but i guess there's no accounting for taste with some folks and their money.

my money is fine, i stopped betting 4-5 shots years ago, especially when they can't get the distance. old fashioned is a good horse, he's no 4-5 shot at a distance. no matter who rides. i bet to win, taste has nothing to do with it. i was agreeing with you, but the thread is ridiculous. thompson blew it? how about the horse won't last over a mile. thats way more accurate!

Danzig 04-12-2009 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
my money is fine, i stopped betting 4-5 shots years ago, especially when they can't get the distance. old fashioned is a good horse, he's no 4-5 shot at a distance. no matter who rides. i bet to win, taste has nothing to do with it. i was agreeing with you, but the thread is ridiculous. thompson blew it? how about the horse won't last over a mile. thats way more accurate!


it is ridiculous. but i thought the jock change was ridiculous. OF didn't lose his last two due to the rider.

and my comment about money was directed to those at oaklawn who sent him off at 1-1.


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