Interesting Developments
 

The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?

pace
 

If Old Fashioned goes he's the pace. How about Regal Ransom? Was on the pace in all 3 races in the desert. Alan Garcia up and by Distorted Humor?

Definitely some food for thought... Going to be a great betting race for sure and some juices prices. Hard to come out with a clear cut choice this year.

Pioneer was the big winner of the day. Horses that can't beat him in Cali are leaving and running huge and winning big races on dirt.

Friesan Fire is as good as I thought. Jones seemed to think all along that Old Fashioned was better but the horse that FF beat just beat Old Fashioned. I think Jones was wrong.

I think Musket Man is that good. I still don't think General Quarters is.

A couple of months back, I seem to remember hearing Jones suggest that FF might be as good or even better than OF

But POTN still hasn't run on dirt - maybe he beat those horses because he's better on the synthetics than they are. We still have no idea if POTN will take to the dirt.

It makes me wonder what would of happened if the track would of been fast that day

I disagree. The big winner of the day was Dunkirk, as the usuals came in 1-2 in Ark... so nobody passed him in graded earnings from the race.

You're absolutely correct. He did say that, and so far was a great assessment.

I already pointed out last week that POTN was a real value pick in the futures at 11-1, though it is fair to ask the question how will he fare on traditional dirt, it doesn't hurt that horses he has beaten are coming back to win big derby preps. To add another spin, I would say Baffert is a better dirt trainer than on syth tracks. He will be very interesting.

Good point.

Not sure whether or not the Arkansas Derby was any good, after only a couple brief viewings.

Exactly

I read somewhere that Regal Ransom is somewhat iffy?

I would not be surprised to see a west coast trifecta in derby, i believe John white just might be correct in his thinking syn-tracks to dirt building horses up for dirt.

I'll also add that in terms of Old Fashioned, I would probably go. Not only is there little pace, and maybe you can get lucky, but you'll help setup the pace for your stablemate.

One at a time.....

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

Terrain is a complete mediocrity who can't even make a dent in a race that fell in his lap on his preferred surface.

I supposed Old Fashioned is the main speed, unless his connections are smart enough to skip the Derby and run in the Met Mile, and that will have little affect on the race. But, without seeing all the pps this is a tougher one to answer.

He makes a great rabbit for Desert Party.

He surely does.

What are you basing this on? The fact that he's never run on dirt, or the fact that he's bred to like dirt?

Im still waiting to find that synthetic horse that hates dirt. It's the other way around. The West Coast horses are just better this year. And the poly is better conditioning. Well Armed by 14 enough said.

hahahahahahahahahaha

While I prefer Hockey's response....I will give you a few off the top of my head.....Adriano, Monba and Cowboy Cal.

Better conditioning? See Hockey's previous response.

I agree that judging Papa Clem based on an off track race where he cut the pace is probably not the way to go. And, there are just so many perfect trips in a given year for Friesen Fire. So, anyone wanting him in the Derby will be in for a very rude awakening.

But while I want to believe that Old Fashioned is distanced challenged, as this is constantly being put out there, I'm not sure that I saw that today. What I did see is a jock STYLING while seriously NAPPING on a horse with an easy lead, that got passed and continued on very gamely on the inside to the wire. In fact, OF appeared to be making some of the ground back. Distance challenged horses typically give it up when they're passed. A more attentive ride by the jock is all it would've taken today.

Not sure that I can reconcile General Quarters' performance today with his getting a 'lousy' trip last out. He didn't get the best of trips but it certainly wasn't a very bad one. He ran much better today -- poly or otherwise.

As for POTN, he never struck me as anything more than a workmanlike performer. He tries hard and beats what they put him in against. I understand that he's presently the POLY HATERS whipping boy but all the horse can do it run where they put him. If he fails on the dirt, SO ****IN WHAT!!!! He goes back to the POLY and TURF and carves out a decent career.

seems a couple horses from out west last year didn't do so well on poly, ran ok on dirt, but still didn't make much of a dent in kentucky. gayego immediately leaps to mind. seems like some of the horses pyro beat up on last year in LA had success elsewhere. pyro of course fell on his face in ky, and hasn't done much since then to redeem himself-so that should rule out giving much weight to friesan fire. and yes, i know it's a new year. i also know he hasn't run past 1 1/16th, and is taking a seven week breather before the derby. i'm not so sure both those moves can be overcome, along with a 20 horse field.

as for what a horse is bred for-all you can really say for sure is that they're bred to run. some of course do it faster than others. other than that, until they try a surface, it's all conjecture. i wouldn't bet one red cent at the derby on pioneerofthenile fwiw. the 10f distance and large field are the only two new things these horses should face that day.



and as for how well armed finished in dubai, that's just hilarious. he's not much, and didn't face much. the fact he's the top rated dirt horse in the world is a riot.

why does he have to win
 

Why does the Pioneer of Nothing have to win the Derby. Good horses lose races. Colonel John won the Travers. The horses is bred to run all day long. He has been working bullets since January 1st along with IWR. Papa Clem has worked bullets all spring. Next Week when Square Eddie runs in the Top 3 another Synthetic horse who has been in training all spring.

well said.

The Ky. Derby always seems to allow for Terrain-types to hit the board quite often... Denis of Cork, Imawildandcrazyguy, Steppenwolfer... there always seems to be one.

To PC's credit he did show a new dimension today as he's mainly been a pace/pace presser type. I didn't bet him because I thought he would do what OF did and weaken late instead he screwed me a different way.

nothing wrong with that whatsoever. he'll be the new lava man.
as for hating poly, i think everyone is framing their thoughts on him regarding ky, not anything else. i don't think anyone would pick against him in a race on his favored surface.

You can say that about everything, but if you are betting the Derby, throwing out one of the favorites, and being right, gives you a chance to make some money. Isn't that both what we are talking about here and what playing the game is all about?

he doesn't have to win-but isn't this thread about horses going for the derby? some like him for it, some don't. after the derby, everyone will move on.

to the preakness.

i can't wait to see who this years triple crown winner is going to be! :rolleyes:

The game
 

that is what the game is all about. 20 days away.

I'm not sure using any comparison to last year's crop is wise as they were extremely weak overall.

The dirt/synth debate could go on all night and never get anywhere. It's extremely horse specific in my opinion. Lumping all synth winners into turfers is dangerous, and visa-versa.

This getting really rank mid-race stuff is going to catch-up to him quick.

The Derby is hardly what the game is all about. Maybe on the internet....but not at the windows where it really matters.

Well Said last year was better on Derby Day than everybody else.

But If Pioneer loses by 1 length. Will everyone go "he hated" the dirt?

My sig. courtesy of BTW, explains it all.

my only real comparison to last year is to say that a horse can look strong in the preps, only to bomb in may-and perhaps ever after (such as in pyros case).

as for the other, you have to take each horse on its own. some like one surface, some like multiple surfaces obviously. i know wait a while was good on turf, but hated synthetics-so of course you can't automatically assume anything. but it's my thought that only the best horses are versatile and can/will handle multiple surfaces and emerge victorious.

I couldn't have said it better myself.


Wait a minute......

if you have a horse do nothing but win on one surface, and then loses on another-that would be the easiest reason why, wouldn't it?