4/11: Keeneland (6th-10th); Comely; AK Derby
 

Had very nice afternoon at Keeneland Friday despite agonizing wire beat out of very big P4 score. Previous 3 events earned large P3 though, and day's excellent exotics should have sent you home with some bankrol for today's Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby cards. Hope you did well. On way to Landover, MD this a.m., so it will be difficult to make post-scratch adjustments until early afternoon. Hope you enjoyed ATR from Foxwoods Thursday and Friday!


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: Shakertown (Gr. III), 3+, 5,5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Hero's Reward 5-1: May be better next, but respect Capuano veteran.. WON
Most Likely: #4 Mr. Nightlinger 5-2: Serious specialist back for title defense.. 5th
Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1: Non-coupled to ML fave; 5yo gets GoGo.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Cannonball 12-1: Got turf sprint education last; Can boost exotics.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (10-5) Paid $56.70
$1 Trifecta (10-5-9) Paid $396.80


7th: Commonwealth (Gr. II), 3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Rebellion 5-2: Won this off similar break last year.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Keep Laughing 6-1: KMc DistHumor needs best, but can pop up.. 5th
Next Best: #4 My Pal Charlie 4-1: Stall says turnback should suit Gr. II winner.. 3rd
Super Add: #1 Eternal Star 9-2: Trombo tabbed this over Gr. I Carter; Capable.. WON

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $47.00
$1 Trifecta (1-8-4) Paid $71.80


8th: Jenny Wiley (Gr. II), F&M04+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 I Lost My Choo 6-1: Serpe NY bred always ready; Goes 2nd/layoff.. 7th
Best Value: #6 Kiss With a Twist 30-1: LDK mare prepped on TP poly; Explodes here.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Forever Together 1-1: BC Turf star formidable; Sheppard's guns ablaze.. WON
Super Add: #7 Backseat Rhythm 4-1 5th


9th: Blue Grass (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Charitable Man 4-1: McLaughlin Futurity winner working brilliantly for '09 bow.. 7th
Best Value: #4 Ciffy's Future 20-1: Poly prep score noted for connections who won this with Dominican.. 11th
Next Best: #2 Join in the Dance 10-1: Pletcher TB Derby runner-up a wire threat loose on lead.. 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Patena 10-1: Expect snap back effort after FG fiasco; Liked Woodbine's synthetic.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Mafaaz 12-1: Likely better than people anticipate; Paceless affair could suit.. 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-9-10
7: 1-2-4-7-8
8: 1-3-6
9: 4-9

4x5x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60


10th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Pick Six 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Jazz Quest 10-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Jamaludin 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
High 5 Play: #9 Late SCR



AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: Comely (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Dream Play 9-5: KMc Hennessy miss should stalk, go.. WON
Best Value: #2 Don't Forget Gil 5-2: FL Oaks heroine comes late; Will be lost on board.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Laragh 2-1: HOL Starlet winner may need one.. 5th



OAKLAWN PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


11th: Arkansas Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Old Fashioned 9-5: Should get more comfortable trip today.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Flat Out 10-1: Caught attention early and believe he steps up.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Papa Clem 6-1: Stute's careful handling paying off; Gets 1st fast, dry strip.. WON
Super Add: #9 Win Willy 7-2: Much less pace to chase; Needs decent showing only.. 4th


Good luck!
Steve

Old Fashioned dam is by Meadowlake. Meadowlake horses can't win past a mile.

Unbridled's Song is Old Fashioned's sire. His dam is by Meadowlake. But thanks for playing.

I'm no pedigree expert but i know the difference between sire and dam this is a silly statement sorry.

Keeneland 4-11
 

minus-3241 (2009) pre-scr's

1) $2 ex 15/38 $5 w 1 $2 wp 4 win $51.50

4) $2 ex 36/2,10 $5 w 6 $2wp 7l/s win/plc $59.40

7) $2 ex 18/24 $5 w 8 $2 wp 3 lost

9) $2 ex 3,10/29 $5 w 10 $2wp 8 l/s win/plc $41.60

total $68 good-luck won $152.50 +84.50 -15 on pk4 +69.50

Meadow Star?

Meadow Soprano?

Is it me or is this one really tough sequence.

Scratches & Changes

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Race Description
1 1st Race
#6--Point Affirmed--SCRATCH

2nd Race -- Race has been taken OFF the turf course and will be run at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack.
#3--Keertana--SCRATCH
#5--Bizzee Mizzee--SCRATCH

3rd Race
#1A--White Lamb--SCRATCH

4th Race
NO CHANGES

5th Race
#5--Always in My Heart--SCRATCH
#10--Divine Sanction--SCRATCH

6th Race -- Shakertown (G3)
#7--Rollers--SCRATCH
#8--Fort Prado--SCRATCH
#13AE--Goldphin Gray--Runs
#14AE--Stradivinsky--SCRATCH

7th Race -- Commonwealth (G2)
NO CHANGES

8th Race -- Jenny Wiley (G2)
#4--Ballymore Lady--SCRATCH
#9--Visit--SCRATCH

9th Race -- Toyota Blue Grass (G1)
NO CHANGES

10th Race
#4--Trackerman--SCRATCH
#6--Free Fighter--SCRATCH





Track Conditions, Maintenance & Weather
Saturday, April 11, 2009 11:00 AM
The Polytrack is fast; the turf course is yielding; the rail is down

Forecast is sunny and 60 degrees today; check back throughout the day to see if the condition of the turf course is upgraded
We received about 1.5 inches of rain yesterday.

I have absolutely no idea what to do in the Jenny Wiley w/o a clear pace scenario. Forever Together is obviously superior to these horses on her best day, but she's at a huge disadvantage with the lack of speed. The problem is, so is everyone else. The wet turf also complicates things. I'd single Backseat Rhythm if she wasn't a closer as well. . .

Kee p4
 

6) 4579,10/8/136/3,10 .50 $15 used Steve's 6th & 8th race picks lost -15

1-I lost my choo
2-Lady Carlock
3-Forever Together
7-Backseat Rhythm

All the above have Yielding turf victories...

I'm going to play that angle and use 1,3,7 as my A's and use 2,8 as my C's

If I decide to play a PK4 #7 will be my A and 1, 6 will be B's.

IMO that is what makes Kiss with a Twist interesting as she will try and steal this at a ML of 30-1

Meadows by Joe Walsh (love the beginning!)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0_KBe8z0h0

Early pick 4 @ KEE Races 2-5

R2: 2,6,7,8,9
R3: 1,2,6,7,8
R4: 1
R5: 2,4,6,9

0.50 play = $50

Race 2 is off the turf and I'll also being playing a ticket with the 6 singled in R2. Love the War Chant's on the Poly.

On the way to Landover, MD? Good God, man, why?

excellent questions, skins don't open up pre-season until august


-bt-

Expect nothing less from Nick the Kid :)

early pk4 $0.50

gonna take a stand against Jones' tandom in the last leg, might be stupid but i think its gonna be a pretty competitive race and neither of his runners wow me on paper


27
267
1456
1491112 = $60

gl all


-bt-

early pick 4
2/1,7,8/1,5,10/6,9,12
$13.50

Of course :mad:

Stupid little motherf.uckers.

late Keenland Pk 4
 

Going to bet the late pick 4, rather than the all-stakes pk 4, as I usually prefer to avoid to turf sprints whenever possible.

Race 7:
8 - Rebellion - Captain Obvious
4 - My Pal Charlie - Think he will move up on Keenland surface
2 - Keep Laughing - His win last Spring at Keenland ruined a sizeable pk 4 score for me; won't let him beat me again.

Race 8:
3 - Forever Together - Breeders Cup F/M turf champ vulernable to layoff and pace scenerio.
6 - Kiss with a Twist - Agree with Steve's comments above; makes a lot of sense, especially with the lack of pace in the race
8 - Ruthannarie - Tallied six straight 3rd place finishes after winning this race last year.

Race 9:
10 - Hold Me Back - Hope synthetic/turf specialist wins today and takes a lot of dead money on Derby Day
9 - Charitable Man - Shouldn't be a win candidate under these circumstances, but he's talented, and much of this field isn't.
2 - Join in the Dance - Should be right on the pace, and that's probably a good place to be
11 - Massone - Been involved in one key race after another. Lone win came with Gomez aboard, and he's back in the saddle today.

Race 10:
10 - Jamaludin - Favorite in last should rebound; soft turf not a problem.
7 - Pick Six - Just a hunch
8 - Equitable - Ran a big one last summer at Monmouth in a G1 on yielding turf.

$49 pk 4 (.50)

Good luck everyone.

Redboard...

I put 5 across on Exotic Bloom because of the way the track is playing. Gotta take advantage of a bulls.hit course.

All stakes 4's...Best of luck to everyone playing along today! Some lucrative scores are to be had.

.50

4
1,2,4,6,8
1,2,3,6,7
2,6,10


$1

5,9,10
1,2,8
3
2,4,8,9,11

$4

4,9
8
1,3
10

$98.50 total

Race 5
Pick 3
1,4,6
4,9
1,4,8
$18

Nice hit. Caught a nice double to Song of Solomon a couple times.

Song of Solomon, WOW... that was impressive.

Well, the early P4 at KEE didn't work, let's try the all stakes:

R6: 1,4,9,10
R7: 2,4,7,8
R8: 1,3,6,7
R9: 9,10

0.50 play = $64.00

Trying for prices in the first three legs, maybe especially the Jenny Wily, the 6 + 7 really like the softer going on the weeds. If today was Derby Day I would not be betting the 10 in the Blue Grass, but since it's not, he's my top pick in the stake.

Nice.

Changed my mind on the pick 4.

$.50 cent
3,4,9,10
1,2,7,8
3
1,3,4,9,10
$40

4,5,10
1,4,8
1,3,6
4,8,10
$40.50

Little late but,
R6 1,4,10
R7 4,7,8
R8 1,3,7
R9 2,9,10
.50 = $40.50

R6 4
R7 2,4
R8 3,6,7
R9 9,10
.50 = $6.00

Only 2 horses to own a victory on a yielding course run 1-2

No doubt. Of course, that the 1 got SQUEEZED OUT of the race on the turn was neither here nor there. :rolleyes:

Keeneland 7th
$5 exb 8/1,4

Yeah and it blew up all 4 of my backup tix.

Shortest 5 Doubles...

Hold Me Back
Jojo
Charitable Man
Terrain
Maafaz

Call me crazy but I'm only playing a win/place bet on General Quarters.

As opposed to wheeling him ON TOP in exotics?

Keeneland 8th $5 Exb 6/2,9,10


on edit... not that it matters but this was a 9th race wager...not an 8th

I was thinking that but not sure with who yet, maybe a couple tri's with the 5,6,9,10??