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-   -   4/10: Keeneland (3rd-10th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28930)

Kasept 04-10-2009 07:31 AM

4/10: Keeneland (3rd-10th)
 
Front half of P4 was elusive Thursday with tough-to-find $20 winner from Ian Wilkes in the 7th upsetting the apple cart early. Picked it up in the second half on strength of nightcap winner Bandora who looked unbeatable to me. The Mott firster was pounded down to odds on and ran well, but Ronny Werner's winner was a gift paying an overlaid $8.80 and bringing back $32 in the ($2) DD with stake winer Informed Decision. Hope you did well. Gr. I Maker's Mark Mile today in advance of Saturday's very nice Blue Grass card.


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hello Broadway 1-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Budget 9-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Coffee Bar 7-2 3rd


4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Atticus Kristy 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Mitigation 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Officer Rockett 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Tempo Five 3-1 WON


5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Silver Flatters 5-1 12th
Best Value: #6 Jamie's Mambo 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Alexis Girl 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Lady Witha Secret 8-1 10th


6th: ALW/N3X, F&M-4+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Mushka 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Absolutely Cindy 30-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Long Approach 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Mini Mom 20-1 6th

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $10.40
$1 Trifecta (7-4-5) Paid $102.90



7th: Fort Harrod, 4+, 13f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Rocket Legs 4-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Gangbuster 12-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Lord Kipling 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Kurbat 3-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (2-5) Paid $85.10
$1 Trifecta (2-5-3) Paid $322.20



8th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Crazy group..

Most Likely: #3 Yorktown 4-1 9th
Best Value: #10 Veiled Prophet 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1e McLaughlin entry 8-1 2nd/10th
Super Add: #11 Freedom Alert 15-1 8th


9th: Maker's Mark Mile (Gr. I), 4+, 1m-T (DD, Maker's-Blue Grass Double, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Just as Well 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Passager 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mr. Sidney 4-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Thorn Song 5-2 6th

$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $21.30
$1 Trifecta (1-4-7) Paid $70.20



10th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #12 No Detour 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bearpath 6-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Tevez the Tiger 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Weslin 10-1 4th
High 5 Play: #6 Successful Dan 10-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3
8: 1-2-3-7-10-11
9: 1-4-5-7
10: 5-12

3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 09:03 AM

Race 2
 
Does anybody know who Gerry Carwood is (besides the trainer of the 10)? Where did he come from? Was he somebody's assistant?

Thanks in advance.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 10:07 AM

Race Description
1 1st Race
#7--Elated Moon--SCRATCH

2nd Race
NO CHANGES

3rd Race
NO CHANGES

4th Race
#5--Point of Reason--SCRATCH

5th Race
NO CHANGES

6th Race -- Race has been taken OFF the turf and will be run at 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack.

#1--Goat Cheese--SCRATCH
#3--Trainee--Jockey change to Edgar Prado
#6--Sugar Baby Love--SCRATCH
#10--Lickety Lemon--SCRATCH
#13AE--Brushed Gold--Runs
#14AE--Points of Grace--SCRATCH

7th Race -- Fort Harrod
NO CHANGES

8th Race
#4--Freedom Bay--SCRATCH

9th Race -- Maker's Mark Mile (G1)
#6--Twilight Meteor--SCRATCH

10th Race
#3--Southdale--Add Lasix
#10--Tevez the Tiger--(LA) Lasix Adjunct

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 12:05 PM

Race 1 Pick 3
 
1 - 1,3
2 - 4,6,8,10
3 - 2,5

Gl

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 12:23 PM

Early Pick 4

2 - 4,6,8,10
3 - 2,5
4 - 1,2,6,7
5 - 7,10,12

GL

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
early pick 4

.50

2,4,7,9,10
1,4
1,2,6
1,2,10

$45

Bah

DerbyCat 04-10-2009 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Does anybody know who Gerry Carwood is (besides the trainer of the 10)? Where did he come from? Was he somebody's assistant?

Thanks in advance.


He was an assistant to Eddie Kenneally.

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 12:59 PM

Hello Broadway is overrated but this field is absolutely horrendous.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DerbyCat
He was an assistant to Eddie Kenneally.

Thanks DC.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Hello Broadway is overrated but this field is absolutely horrendous.

I have no confidence in him going around two turns, but can't land on any one horse to beat him. I am hoping Garcia sends the 2 and with the wet track....maybe.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
I have no confidence in him going around two turns, but can't land on any one horse to beat him. I am hoping Garcia sends the 2 and with the wet track....maybe.

Or not...:zz:

:wf

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 01:31 PM

$20 win Mitigation
$2 ex 7/1,3

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 01:38 PM

*pats self on the back*

handicapper of the year right here.

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 02:01 PM

Gerivello $10wp

rgustafson 04-10-2009 02:07 PM

Youv'e heard the phrase, follow the money. At Keeneland, it's follow the "Lep"

philcski 04-10-2009 02:25 PM

Overlooked AE ALERT KEE R6! Think the 13 may be able to take them all the way- there is very little pace in here, short stretch, and she's 9-1. Pletcher doesn't scratch out despite the bad post and JV stays on.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
What was the big rush with the jocks? Desormeaux had the 4 in a drive for the first 3/4's of the race. Garcia asked the 2 a half mile into the race and Jeremy Rose moved way too early with the 1. That said, the 5 was much the best, but some curious rides.

I think the whole lot panicked early when they realized the favorite was getting away from them.

philcski 04-10-2009 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Overlooked AE ALERT KEE R6! Think the 13 may be able to take them all the way- there is very little pace in here, short stretch, and she's 9-1. Pletcher doesn't scratch out despite the bad post and JV stays on.

Last by a country mile :rolleyes:

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 02:40 PM

Last in the 4th, Next to last in the 5th, second to last in the 6th.

That's improvement!!

I especially liked Edgar putting a dead closer ON THE PACE!! Thanks Edgar!! I hope you don't trip and break your collarbone on the way to the jockey's room!!

Ronnie 04-10-2009 02:50 PM

Nice call with the #5 Absolutely Cindy in the the 6th, Steve. Made it a nice trifecta!

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 02:52 PM

Pick 4

7 - 1,3,5,7,8
8 - 2,3,7,10
9 - 5
10 - 3,4,6,7,8,12

$60

GL

Heels1989 04-10-2009 03:01 PM

Late P4 ($.50)

1/7
1/2/3/7/10
1/5
12

$10

G/L

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 03:05 PM

50 cent pick foh
1,2,5
3,7,10
3,4,5
2,4,8,12
$54

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Pick 4

7 - 1,3,5,7,8
8 - 2,3,7,10
9 - 5
10 - 3,4,6,7,8,12

$60

GL

Bah, part deux

jms62 04-10-2009 03:11 PM

Nice start... Let's hold our breath.. Looked like a lot of bumping coming down the stretch.

philcski 04-10-2009 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Bah, part deux

Rocket Legs, what a piece of a sh1t, ruined the entire race with his antics. :mad:

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
50 cent pick foh
1,2,5
3,7,10
3,4,5
2,4,8,12
$54


Nice start PP. Bring it home.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Rocket Legs, what a piece of a sh1t, ruined the entire race with his antics. :mad:

Yup.

hockey2315 04-10-2009 03:32 PM

Really like the 10 here

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 03:42 PM

He looked like Pegasus.

If I get 3 out of 4 I'm going to kill myself.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
He looked like Pegasus.

If I get 3 out of 4 I'm going to kill myself.

I apologize for the mush Bro.

cakes44 04-10-2009 03:47 PM

Albarado quit riding on the Lucas horse(#8) in the 8th. Needed that one to get up for 3rd for the tri.

Coach Pants 04-10-2009 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
I apologize for the mush Bro.

No need to apologize for my poor ticket structuring.

philcski 04-10-2009 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
He looked like Pegasus.

If I get 3 out of 4 I'm going to kill myself.

The last leg is impossible.

Kee pick 4 whine: I ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the last leg on Saturday for $36,000, $34,000, and $18,000 and forgot to play a backup through the last leg which would have been $30 for .$50 and paid $12,000. Ok, I'm done now.

philcski 04-10-2009 03:58 PM

Really like the 4 in here.


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