4/11 (KEE): Blue Grass; Jenny Wiley; Commonweath; Shakertown
 

6th (3:40) Shakertown S. (G3)

5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Hellvelyn (GB) Garcia Alan 118 LA
2 Tenkiller Lake Castanon J L 118 L
3 Hewitts Desormeaux K J 118 LA
4 Mr. Nightlinger Theriot H J II 118 L
5 Cannonball Douglas R R 118 L
6 Due Date Bridgmohan S X 118 LA
7 Rollers Prado E S 118 LA
8 Fort Prado Leparoux J R 118 LA
9 Chamberlain Bridge Gomez G K 121 L
10 Heros Reward Castellano J J 118 LA
11 Incriminate Mena M 118 LA
12 Crowned General Borel C H 118 LA
AE Godolphin Gray Mernagh D 118 L
AE Stradivinsky Albarado R J 118 L



7th (4:11) Commonwealth S. (G2)

7 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Eternal Star Coa E M 118 L
2 Keep Laughing Garcia Alan 118 LA
3 Silver Edition Douglas R R 118 L
4 My Pal Charlie Leparoux J R 122 LA
5 Success Success Borel C H 118 LA
6 Storm Treasure Bridgmohan S X 118 LA
7 Ravalo Velazquez J R 118 L
8 Rebellion (GB) Prado E S 118 LA



8th (4:42) Jenny Wiley S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 I Lost My Choo Prado E S 119 L
2 Lady Carlock Albarado R J 119 L
3 Forever Together Leparoux J R 123 LA
4 Ballymore Lady Desormeaux K J 119 LA
5 Rustic Flame (IRE) Lanerie C J 117 LA
6 Kiss With a Twist Mena M 117 LA
7 Backseat Rhythm Coa E M 119 LA
8 Rutherienne Garcia Alan 117 L
9 Visit (GB) Gomez G K 117 LA



9th (5:15) Toyota Blue Grass S. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Patena Albarado R J 123 L (10-1)
2 Join in the Dance Velazquez J R 123 LA (10-1)
3 Theregoesjojo Borel C H 123 LA (7-2)
4 Cliffy's Future Castanon J L 123 LA (20-1)
5 Mafaaz (GB) Hills R 123 (12-1)
6 Terrain Leparoux J R 123 LA (6-1)
7 Loch Dubh Theriot H J II 123 Blk-On LA (50-1)
8 General Quarters Coa E M 123 L (15-1)
9 Charitable Man Garcia Alan 123 LA (4-1)
10 Hold Me Back Desormeaux K J 123 LA (3-1)
11 Massone Gomez G K 123 L (12-1)

This race makes me think of 2008.

simple. you can't!

How far does Mafaaz win by? :)

Or how about, what denotes a decent enough performance here to take a shot at the big one!?

The very idea that Charitable Man is even running in this race, given the situation, seems absurd to me. Let's see, a 2YO that was able to run two races before getting injured, and hasn't run in seven months, is now being asked to go 1 1/8 miles....with his eye on a 20 horse field at 1 1/4 miles in three weeks. Go baby go.

I like Cowbow Cal. What do you think? ;)

Nice field in the Wiley.

Return of the champ! Great card overall.

Rollers back on a week rest in the Shakertown?? Really?

He's a mighty NY bred. :tro:

It's hard to imagine a race with less pace than the Jenny Wiley.

A dollar and a dream.

What do people think of Massone? He was there close to Chocolate Candy in the El Camino Real, and was one and a half lengths back of I want Revenge last October as maidens

is he owned by paul reddam?

I like the card, too. Looking forward to being there Saturday.

Did a double-take on Rollers myself. Has Tagg turned horses around this quick in the past?

Like My Pal Charlie turning back to 7 furlongs. I think he is a big threat in this one.

I totally agree with you. I am amazed that Charitable Man has been able to work steadily since he's been back without missing a single work. That said you never know which is the excitement of this sport. I just can't imagine him finishing better than 5th or 6th. But I am rooting for him.
Perhaps a Preakness run may be more in the offing which is in 5 weeks. There is some sense that horses recover a bit quicker off the poly but, as Kiaran said on Byk's show, if he pulls this off they should bronze him in the infield. He's a good horseman, he knows CM's potential as well as the difficulty inherent in what he is trying to do.
And please say on some media outlet that Charitable Man doesn't belong in the race. I've heard you say that a couple of times with Kiaran's horses at A and it seems like they run alot harder.

That said, who do you like? I find it incredibly difficult to pull these horses apart and come to a conclusion that doesn't include 6 of them.

I really can't believe he'll get bet down that much. There is too much that he will have to overcome here. I wonder how they put that ML together?

This is pretty neat, on the Blue Grass Stakes website you can see all of the charts dating back to 1937.

http://ww2.keeneland.com/bluegrassst...px?Page=Charts

True... I think Kiss with a twist will be out front and Forever together will be stalking her closely.
That being said, its a crapshoot what the jocks will do after they get told by every trainer to go because there is no speed.

BG in a nutshell
 

1 Patena no chance
2 Join in the Dance dangerous speed a user
3 Theregoesjojo on the decline
4 Cliffys Future can't run with these
5 Mafaaz unknown factor, a lot to ask
6 Terrain too slow
7 Loch Dubin no
8 General Quarters not impossible but see #3
9 Charitable Man too much to ask
10 Hold me Back could be tough, Desormeax sticks with him
11 Massone the winner with Gomez

Prediction 11-10-3-2

The I Want Revenge form is irrelevant, but the Chocolate Candy form is worth noting.
He doesn't have a lot of talent, but at least he handles the surface and runs a little late. He has the best jockey.
I don't see him as one of likely winners here.
The public are going to have to really bet some of the horses that I am tossing, in order for there to be enough value for me to use this lackluster runner, - and they may.

Doug O'Neill was quoted as saying this is a very stupid plan.

I'm glad we got this settled.

So was running Great Hunter in so many synthetic races but we all have our shortcomings.

However, I do think this is a terrible idea. Really, he may end up being a good horse but this exhibit A of what not to do with a promising yet fragile 3YO.

NT

Just noticed while capping this card that the 2008 winners from all three supporting stakes are back to try to defend their titles... Pretty cool considering the constant yammering about 'lack of stars' etc. I've said regularly that the 'stars' are there and easy to appreciate if some marketing entity would laud them.

Five year old '08 Shakertown hero Mr. Nightlinger is 19/9-1-4 ($500k) and won 4 stakes last year for likable Bret Calhoun. 6yo Rebellion (21/7-4-4; $740k) never seemed to reach the apex Motion sought with him last year, but he did win the Commonwealth and Ack Ack and place in the Pat O'Brien and BC Synthetic Mile. Finally, enigmatic Rutherienne (17/9-0-6; $921,555) promptly ran third in 6 straight graded stakes last year after homering in her '08 debut in the Jenny Wiley.

Aren't there people out there that are fans of these horses after 19, 21 and 17 starts respectively? Or do 3yo colts have to be the only stars in the game?

I don't know anything about Bret Calhoun but I definitely am a fan of Mr. Nightlinger.

As stated above, it's hard not to get excited for the return of the F&M Turf champ and her truly awesome late kick for the very likeable Sheppard (who could have a monster week- 1 grade 1 down already)!

I have been a big fun of Mr. Nightlinger. Can't understand why the same connections entered Chamberlain Bridge though. It looks like they could hurt each other on the front end.

A question about Keeneland for those familiar regarding the multiple finish lines. How can you tell in the program which finish line each particular race finishes at? Also, has the first finsish line played strongly to speed types in the past with the shorter stretch?

Not all of us are yammering Steve. We're out here! The sport is facing many challenges, liked your piece on Mullins and Matt H's piece in DRF, but these athlete's inspire me with their heart and conviction. Being a relatively new handicapper compared to folks here, being a fan does make handicapping a more complex process in as much as it can effect my objectivity. But, being a relatively new capper, being a fan is far more satisfying on a regular basis. Good point.

I only care about 3YO races.

Now, if you don't mind, I have a handicapping challenge to attend to on Thoroughbredchampions.

Always a Motion fan here, and Rebellion is a fun horse in these synthetic sprints.

Is it one of those list your Top 5 Derby Horses contests?

I don't think it takes an experienced horseman to give pause to what Kirian is doing with Charitable Man. But without being in the barn with the horse the past few months, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he'll only move forward to the derby if the horse really proves himself.
A safer route would probably be going to the Derby Trial at a mile, and then pointing for the Peter Pan, but he contends this is one special and talented colt, so we'll see.

We can only hope

I guess it boils down to how you define the term "stars"

The last few years have been awful throughout almost every division in terms of horses with elite talent.

I don't blame anyone who wants to be excited about the 3yo's from this crop - and yet are not impressed at all with the older horses we've seen this year.

I think you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find a 3-year-old male crop that was unarguably better than this current one at this time of the year.

You also have a 3-year-old filly in Rachel Alexandra who's recent form going into the Kentucky Oaks is as impressive as any 3yo filly since Sillverbulletday ten years ago.

Gee, haven't heard his name in awhile. Is he still training? ;)

Now if only logic worked in this process, you'd have it nailed. I am only laughing at the number of times I've capped a race and had some of the same conclusions and the whole race blows up in my face. I'll be fun to watch.

i liked hold me back the other day-but chose others over him due only to the layoff. of course we all know he won.

not really any hard and fast rules on this anymore. you'd think a horse would need more bottom, but so many horses come into the derby without much foundation, you have to wonder how much of a knock it is to only run a couple of times in the spring.

now, the 10f is still grueling-but is the competition any more?

then again, way back when regret became the first filly to win the derby. it was also her first start of the year. not sure how many are aware of that.

I have only seen the races that are 1 1/16 on the main finish at the alternate finish line. All other races finish at the main finish line near the end of the stretch.

Frontrunners really haven't benefitted from the short stretch. Anytime I've seen a frontrunner win was because of some kind of track bias or was the lone leader.

After reading your opening paragraph and then reading the rest, I get the feeling that your are saying Mr. Nightlinger, Rebellion, and Rutherienne are all stars. Good horses, sure. But stars? Really. No doubt it's good to have good horses that aren't quickly sent off to the farm and that do continue to race but I think it's a reach to say they are stars.

It's extremely hard to market horses in today's climate. When horses used to run more often, it was easier. But imagine if you were SA last week and had been marketing the matchup of The Pamplemousse vs. Pioneerof the Nile. How did that work out? What if you are Churchill and you want to market the matchup of Rachel vs. Stardom Bound in the Oaks? IEAH hasn't even committed SB to the race yet so you can't. Curlin vs. Big Brown was hyped a little before the BC but then Big Brown didn't go. Couple of years ago, St. Liam vs. Rock Hard Ten but then that didn't happen. Monmouth marketed the return of Afleet Alex in the Haskell. There are countless examples that show why it's too hard to market these horses now.