Musket Man part 2
 

Ive seen gales thread about MM after the TB Derby and not too many were thrilled with this horse seeing how the filly outran him the same day. But man after the Illinois Derby how can the connections not be excited about the chance this horse has in the derby. His beyer wasnt off the board, hey it wasnt even triple figures, but I feel this horses running style fits the derby perfectly. The horse sits nicely mid pack makes three wide menacing moves and goes on with it strong in the lane.
After the race Coa was extremely confident that the horse could get the mile and a quarter and I think he can too.
I feel this horse who is 5 for 6 lifetime will get a decent chunk in the derby, any other thoughts?

I say again, the day a Yonaguska colt wins the Derby is the day American breeders should pack their bags and go home.

if you believe in the #'s he is too slow , but the numbers have been wrong before and they can be again

that being said he continues to grow and get bigger and faster

derek is simply amazed with each step forward day by day , week by week

i will keep you guys posted as the derby draws near as to how the connections feel as i have a pretty good link into the barn

Im giving him extra points for style. If this was a mile and an eight at Belmont in a 6 horse field with POTN, FF, IWR ect ect I wouldnt give him a shot. But this is the Derby, 20 horse field, anything can happen. If he's within 5-10 of the lead down the backside in the derby I feel he has a good shot.

my guess is he will be a nice price come derby day , most lilkely higher than his pool 3 odds when all the so called experts like beyer , grennberg , etc etc basically probably tell you to throw him out

As an aside, The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) is bred on a similar cross as Musket Man . Both mares are Mr Prospector line and the 2 sires are sons of Cherokee Run .

25-1 in the third pool, if I can get higher than that in the Derby I would be extremely happy. Def. gonna wheel him back and forth in the exacta and use him alot in other exotics.

I actually kind of like him now....and I didn't before Saturday.

tell me why , he only ran a 98 beyer , how much more can he move up on derby day?

brian you too - tell me what you saw that makes you think differently

Saturday put me over the top on this horse too. I just have that feeling the way this horse has been going he is primed for a huge race in the derby. If this horse gets it done I will be a wealthy man. Gale please keep us updated on this horses progress I am extremely interested.

i will let you guys know what i hear , the connections have to be pleased with how he has handled the 2 turns

I was just impressed. I know that he's now handled more than one quirky surface, so you know he can carry his game with him. The way he finished, coming home in :12.2 makes me think that the extra furlong isn't going to be his undoing either.

I'm not saying he's my favorite horse heading into the Derby, but he's likely one I now wouldn't leave out on multi-race wagers. It's pretty tough to fault a horse who does so little wrong.

i think steve had him on top for the TBD derby - mr byk what are your thoughts on the horse can he move forwrad eneough to win on the 1st saturday in may at this point ?

Well first of all they werent tearing it up on the front end 3/4s was in 13 and change and he still ended up sub 150 for the 1 1/8. Final 3f in 36.

I also dont think he had the best trip. Down the backside he wasnt clear on the outside, he was between horses with all type of dirt being kicked in his face. And with the slow pace in front of him it took Coa about 3 pumps and he had the leaders collared 3 wide at the head of the stretch. No other horse made a move like that in the race.

And finally if you watch the horse through the stretch I couldnt help but think if he was motoring like that in the stretch of the Derby aint nobody catching this horse.

This is the second time youve asked Steve about this horse with no response. Somebody wake that guy up!

Steve will answer i'm sure once he sees my post

He liked him in tampa and in ill - we'll see as he does a big time analysis of every derby horse so i'm sure we will get input from him at some point - there is plenty of time

if i hear anything from my man , ill be sure to post

let's just hope hammering hank , beyer and the rest of the so called experts say he is too slow and can't win , then the public won't jump on him come derby day

I was only busting chops about Steve.

And seeing how the horse doesnt have a big flashy trainer and a household name Jockey or a pretty name for the ladies I think his price is safe at 25-1.

Well it's a double edged sword, because you know if Hank picks him as a win contender, you can safely toss him from all wagers.

There's no reason to worry about not getting a fair price on him. You will.

Musket Man is a useful horse and it's hard to knock an animal who keeps on winning, but I think it's foolish to make him the stone-cold lock. There are lots of very good horses on this trail right now

Travis i don't think there was ever a stone cold lock for any derby

Holly Bull looked awfully good and went straight to his knees , Arazi well we know what happened there, and Point Given to name a few

musket man will never be considered a lock , but ,this is good as it will help his price

You can say this for every horse in the race but the cards do have to fall his way. I dont think if he gets in any type of trouble that he will be able to overcome but seeing that he doesnt get in that much trouble in his races and he does have a nice style about him I will take my chances on 25-1 or higher to make a big score. Now I will also have plenty of backup tickets with the horses that figure but if I am to take a chance on any horse in the race to make a big score it would be this one. Im def not calling him a lock but a very nice value.

always better to bet overlays than underlays

If 25-1 is an overlay, which price do you think he should be assuming Quality Road is in the race?

I mis-read your post... I'm sure i'll have tickets with him on top as well, but I think it's a bit crazy to just put all eggs in his basket. He does have plenty of ? marks, despite being a winning machine... outrunning Giant Oak is nothing to be proud about, but winning a lot is. It's a good race this year, very competitive.

I think that as more races are run, that statement will be proven false.

barbero was

Musket Man will most likely be an underlay of Derby Day. I like him, he's a nice horse, and a friend of mine is involved with him, but he's very unlikely to win the Derby and anything under 25 or 30 to one is probably an underlay.

Just because a horse is a big price ( small price ) doesn't mean it is an overlay ( underlay ). Musket Man won two supposed " big " races. He will be bet more because of a resume earned against pretty weak opposition than he will be underbet due to his relatively weaker races than a number of horses.

That being said, he will be an overlay in relation to Pioneer of the Nile.

Do you think Giant Oak is getting better? I thought his improved effort in the Ill Derby had more to do with weaker competition.

He may be a decent horse and I like that his connections are being careful with him but I like him in teh American and/or Hollywood Derby more than any others this year.

NT

Oh I definitely like him for the Mid-America triple this summer if that's the route they go with him. His maiden race was phenomenal and I think he's going to prove to be a pretty serious grass runner...not sure we still know how good he is on that surface.

It's not that I think he's a Gr I type dirt horse or anything, but his three non-turf races that were run on the square (ie, no track made of soup and no horrific traffic trouble) were plenty solid for me to give him credit. On top of that, I am pretty confident that he'll get better as the year goes on.

He's long in the tooth for excuses, but it's tough to really know, because I'm still not sure we know how good he may or may not be, and my money is on us finding out this summer that he's a hell of a racehorse.

Understandable and I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see him have a very productive "2nd half."

I also applaud Chris Block for being so prudent because in the hands of many other horsemen there would be no hesitation about his plans for May 2.

NT

Strangely enough, it sort of struck me as odd that Block even took him to the IL Derby at all. That seemed out of character for him, but I respect him more than probably any other conditioner in Chicago, so I figure he's got the right idea, but I've seen him run so many horses UNDER their heads in Chicago that it was a bit surprising to see him continue on with Oak in the IL Derby.

The Mid-America triple could be ripe for the taking though, especially given the fact that if he runs in all three (and hits the board in the American Derby), he'd get entry and starting fees for all three for $800 total while racing for something like $800,000 in purses and a half-million bonus for sweeping it.

Not saying he could for sure do it, but the first two legs of that usually come up pretty easy...so why not?

Musket Man has done very little wrong, On Derby Day the price will be right, He has the right style and every race he runs ,seems to get better and better, He has room to improve (only a 98) and I want a horse who is not over the top. I want a horse with room to improve.kgar311, you are right. he is the horse to watch on Derby Day. BY the way he is the first horse to arrive at Churchill Downs, he is gonna get very familiar with the track. see u at the windows..........

i think it's a great story would love to see Derek Ryan in there and get the roses

it's a tougher field ths year , that being said , if he ran last year does anyone think he could have been on the bottom of the exacta with Big Brown?

you got me there !

Gosh darn I hope for your sake that horse doesn't finish ITM. I'm definitely not a big fan of his, but you have been just plain relentless.

While Musket Man has the 2 word 3 syllable name I like to see in a Derby horse his dosage profile is a little troubling.

DP = 5-1-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00

He doesn't have that many points and he has zero in the "solid" & "professional" stamina areas. Maybe they will decide the numbers are bogus after he wins.

Good luck. I'm not using him.

Well said.........

After watching a Replay of the TB Derby this morning I believe I need to recant something I said about the horse getting in some trouble. Although he did get out of the gate nicely and was in good position down the backside, going into the far turn he was in between horses, in which he loves to be for some reason getting dirt kicked in his face, Centeno had to stand straight up on the horse as he got into some traffic trouble. Once he stood up he lost about 3 lengths and about 4-5 horses passed him at that time. After he regrouped, he swung 5 wide into the lane and with a tremendous burst got up at the wire. Watching that replay just made me like him even more now. The race in the Ill. Derby just just showed me what this horse can do with a decent trip. This horse is all heart and loves to win, I like that recipie.

Dosage is so out of vogue now.

it does go with what you said about his sire