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-   -   4/10 (KEE): Maker's Mark (G1); Fort Harrod (L) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28872)

Alan07 04-07-2009 12:10 PM

4/10 (KEE): Maker's Mark (G1); Fort Harrod (L)
 
7th (4:05) Fort Harrod S.

1 5/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Rocket Legs Gomez G K 117 LA
2 Gangbuster Desormeaux K J 117 LA
3 Lord Kipling Prado E S 117 L
4 Catch the Luck Bridgmohan S X 117 LA
5 Kurbat (CHI) Rose J 117 LA
6 Tap Dancing Garcia Alan 117 LA
7 Radical Sabbatical Velazquez J R 117 LA
8 Electricity Coa E M 117 L



9th (5:05) Maker's Mark Mile S. (G1)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Mr. Sidney Desormeaux K J 117 LA
2 House of Silver Castanon J L 117 L
3 Fluke (BRZ) Gomez G K 117 LA
4 Passager (FR) Prado E S 117 L
5 Thorn Song Albarado R J 123 LA
6 Twilight Meteor Velazquez J R 119 LA
7 Just as Well Leparoux J R 117 LA

brianwspencer 04-07-2009 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07

9th (5:05) $300,000 Makers' Mark Mile (G1)
1 MR. SIDNEY
2 HOUSE OF SILVER
3 FLUKE (BRZ)
4 PASSAGER (FR)
5 THORN SONG
6 TWILIGHT METEOR
7 JUST AS WELL

Big fan of how House of Silver has come around....but wow, that's not a really enticing bunch for a Grade I. Will pull for my guy just on principle.

Scav 04-07-2009 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Big fan of how House of Silver has come around....but wow, that's not a really enticing bunch for a Grade I. Will pull for my guy just on principle.

Springer has lost his mind

Travis Stone 04-07-2009 01:23 PM

Where have all the grade one horses gone?

NTamm1215 04-07-2009 02:31 PM

Clearly with Sam Houston cancelling their thoroughbred meet they re-located the $200,000 John Connally Turf (G3) to Keeneland and changed the name to the Maker's Mark Mile.

NT

Pedigree Ann 04-07-2009 04:58 PM

Thorn Song gets a freebie? Already a G1 winner over course and distance. If there is no other front-runners to push him, he'll be gone.

brianwspencer 04-07-2009 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Thorn Song gets a freebie? Already a G1 winner over course and distance. If there is no other front-runners to push him, he'll be gone.

House of Silver can lay right there with him. Doesn't mean he can necessarily go on with him once the real running starts, but he's perfectly capable of keeping Thorn Song honest.

booner 04-09-2009 04:29 PM

The Maker's Mark definately does not look like a G1, but looks to be a competitve race none the less.

Don't like Thorn Song coming off the break. And he won't get the lead all to himself. Fluke will be going out front.

Twilight Meteor has run 2 good races since coming back from a 10 month layoff. I like him in here.

cakes44 04-09-2009 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Where have all the grade one horses gone?

Kip Deville was busy running another bang-up race overseas.

Danzig 04-09-2009 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Where have all the grade one horses gone?

i laughed when i saw well armed was the top rated dirt horse after his dubai win. how sad. i thought last year was bad....

golfer 04-09-2009 04:57 PM

My money will be on Passager. He would have won if not stopped in traffic late stretch 2 weeks ago. The quick return may be a good sign.

blackthroatedwind 04-09-2009 05:17 PM

I love Just as Well.

VOL JACK 04-09-2009 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I love Just as Well.

BTW, do yourself a favor and stay away.

I'm betting him.;)

NTamm1215 04-09-2009 08:28 PM

If the morning line holds up and Twilight Meteor and Thorn Song are the two favorites then there's money to be made without a doubt.

I'm not seeing perfect trip winner Twilight Meteor go two in a row after over a year worth of losses and Thorn Song isn't getting that lone E trip he needs to be successful. I'd be more inclined to opt for Passager and Just As Well.

NT

VOL JACK 04-09-2009 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
If the morning line holds up and Twilight Meteor and Thorn Song are the two favorites then there's money to be made without a doubt.

I'm not seeing perfect trip winner Twilight Meteor go two in a row after over a year worth of losses and Thorn Song isn't getting that lone E trip he needs to be successful. I'd be more inclined to opt for Passager and Just As Well.

NT

Passager was best in his last. I just dont like the ship and run in a G1 off short rest. Asking alot.

eajinabi 04-09-2009 11:14 PM

I think you guys are wrong on this one. Fluke looks really scary in this one. You have been warned:) I know he is coming out of AOC to G1 but he ran like a monster in his last.

....and no I am not being sarcastic

philcski 04-09-2009 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I love Just as Well.

Made me some coin in FL on Super Bowl Day.

CSC 04-10-2009 10:21 AM

The Miner's Mark is a grade 1 in name only, this is an inspiring group. :rolleyes:

the_fat_man 04-10-2009 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
If the morning line holds up and Twilight Meteor and Thorn Song are the two favorites then there's money to be made without a doubt.

I'm not seeing perfect trip winner Twilight Meteor go two in a row after over a year worth of losses and Thorn Song isn't getting that lone E trip he needs to be successful. I'd be more inclined to opt for Passager and Just As Well.

NT

So, Thorn Song is not much because he, apparently, needs everything his own way to win. While I disagree with this, as I've seen the horse actually run some game races, I wonder why Just As Well, who ABSOLUTELY CANNOT WIN unless he catches a race that completely falls apart, is, apparently, held in higher regard.

While it appears that there'll be plenty of action on the front end, I wouldn't count on this race collapsing enough for the pick up the pieces types.

NTamm1215 04-10-2009 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
So, Thorn Song is not much because he, apparently, needs everything his own way to win. While I disagree with this, as I've seen the horse actually run some game races, I wonder why Just As Well, who ABSOLUTELY CANNOT WIN unless he catches a race that completely falls apart, is, apparently, held in higher regard.

While it appears that there'll be plenty of action on the front end, I wouldn't count on this race collapsing enough for the pick up the pieces types.

I think Thorn Song is at his best when he's alone on the lead. He ran the bang-up race at Keeneland last year on a turf course that played well to speed. I won't dispute that he has run some game races but I don't see him getting clear of House of Silver enough to take them all the way. With him at 5/2 or less, I'll gamble that he's a need the lead type.

As far as Just As Well, I don't think they need to fall apart in front of him. He ran a pretty strong final quarter in the GP Turf Cap in a race that was certainly not collapsing. He needs a well-timed move going a mile but considering the pace will be good, he has the best turf rider on the grounds on his back, and will be a better price than Thorn Song.

What do you think of Twilight Meteor?

NT

the_fat_man 04-10-2009 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
As far as Just As Well, I don't think they need to fall apart in front of him. He ran a pretty strong final quarter in the GP Turf Cap in a race that was certainly not collapsing. He needs a well-timed move going a mile but considering the pace will be good, he has the best turf rider on the grounds on his back, and will be a better price than Thorn Song.

What do you think of Twilight Meteor?

NT

I don't think JaW ran particularly well in the GP turf. He last moved a field that had done much middle running trying to run down Kip Deville -- that's the only way he was able to get past Court Vision or, even, Kiss the Kid.

As for TM, I never thought much of him as a horse but he'll probably get the best trip of all today. Unless, of course, Albarado uses his head and stalks with TS.

Sightseek 04-10-2009 11:12 AM

Twilight Meteor is scratched.

Travis Stone 04-10-2009 11:41 AM

I can't get excited about Thorn Song at 5-2 with his woeful deterioration in form last year. Sure he could win, and a good portion of the time he probably does, but I think there are better opportunities. Horses like Just as Well and Passager could easily win this race but ultimately they're good not great.

I think the interesting play in this race is Fluke who was really sharp last time against an okay group out west, has handled a wet turf before and is interestingly spotted by Frankel.

Bobby Fischer 04-10-2009 11:45 AM

MM - looks like a single-race pass to me. Not really liking anyone here at their probable odds.

The Harrod looks like it has an obvious winner, although I could be wrong.

jms62 04-10-2009 11:51 AM

Unless it is a Fluke, You only need to go 2 deep... 4-Passanger / 7-Just as Well

booner 04-10-2009 02:23 PM

Now that Twilight Meteor has scratched, I don't have a play in this race. I went ahead and chose Fluke in the Keeneland contest.

blackthroatedwind 04-10-2009 02:33 PM

Not playing due to the scratch. No value, no pace, no interest.

Bigsmc 04-10-2009 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
Unless it is a Fluke, You only need to go 2 deep... 4-Passanger / 7-Just as Well

I admire your conviction, but you're completely disregarding Thorn Song?

Bobby Fischer 04-10-2009 03:26 PM

Gomez rode his ass off again in the Ft Harrod.

I like that he's been aggressive, and he's made the right moves, just has misjudged some of these to the favor of the last-move suck up specialists.

Thought Rocket Legs was a good price at 5-2 but he ran like a dud, broke sluggishly, swung up to the front in a pioneerof the early move in the face of a decent pace, and quit badly. Not a lot of horse to work with

cakes44 04-10-2009 04:08 PM

Is there a weaker finisher than Prado these days? How did he not get that horse up in the Maker's Mark?

booner 04-10-2009 04:09 PM

Nice run by Mr. Sidney. Thorn Song ran Fluke into the ground, and then pretty well sunk into the ground.

Final time: 1:41.84. The course was so soft it looked like they were running on a treadmill halfway through and out of the final turn.

golfer 04-10-2009 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44
Is there a weaker finisher than Prado these days? How did he not get that horse up in the Maker's Mark?


I was shocked he did not blow right by. Prado was supremely confident, waiting until Mr Sidney got away by 3 lengths before even asking Passager.

the_fat_man 04-10-2009 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer
I was shocked he did not blow right by. Prado was supremely confident, waiting until Mr Sidney got away by 3 lengths before even asking Passager.

That's one interpretation. Another is that Prado just couldn't go with MS, when that one moved to the leaders on the turn. That he couldn't run with him at that point and that he couldn't go by midstretch indicates how much better MS was today. (Or how big a hanger Passager is.) Of course, if Desormeaux GUNNED MS on the turn, like Gomez did Ventura yesterday, rather than going to the leaders patiently and in hand, Passager wins the race and the suckup, Just As Well, might've been 2nd.

golfer 04-10-2009 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
That's one interpretation. Another is that Prado just couldn't go with MS, when that one moved to the leaders on the turn. That he couldn't run with him at that point and that he couldn't go by midstretch indicates how much better MS was today. (Or how big a hanger Passager is.) Of course, if Desormeaux GUNNED MS on the turn, like Gomez did Ventura yesterday, rather than going to the leaders patiently and in hand, Passager wins the race and the suckup, Just As Well, might've been 2nd.

It is possible that he couldn't go with Mr Sidney, but he certainly wasn't being asked or encouraged, and why that was only Prado knows.

the_fat_man 04-10-2009 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer
It is possible that he couldn't go with Mr Sidney, but he certainly wasn't being asked or encouraged, and why that was only Prado knows.

Golfer

He couldn't go with Mr Sydney 'cause he didn't have the requisite speed. Had Prado pushed him, he probably doesn't even get 2nd. If he couldn't pass MS with the trip he got, he certainly wasn't going to do by having to run earlier. He got the best possible ride and lost. Simple as that.

Suckups need the race to fall apart for them to win. If they had any speed/gameness then they wouldn't depend on ALL the others failing in order to win. The turf was off and the front runners got the worst of it. Passager needed MS to go harder on the turn or for there to have been another move in the race.

blackthroatedwind 04-10-2009 04:59 PM

I can only assume the race has been downgraded to a listed stake.

cakes44 04-10-2009 05:22 PM

I don't see Mr. Sidney coming back on Passager if Prado sends him by right after the turn, though I guess it's possible. There was really no threat of losing 2nd regardless.

golfer 04-10-2009 05:33 PM

I've only seen Passager run 3 times in the US. His first start he made a fairly big early move, and rightfully tired in the stretch. 2 weeks ago, he made another big move, a bit later in the race, and was flying down the stretch until being shut off.

He may be a MAJOR hanger, but I did not have that indication until today. Perhaps if I had seen his European races, I might have been able to make a better determination, and a better wager.

the_fat_man 04-10-2009 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44
I don't see Mr. Sidney coming back on Passager if Prado sends him by right after the turn, though I guess it's possible. There was really no threat of losing 2nd regardless.

I think there was a similar situation a few months ago (AQU 9th race, I believe).

Searling, showing infinite patience, tried to explain to you why your perspective was off. You clearly didn't listen to him, as you're back with the same argument.


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