Old Fashion or Friesan Fire, who's the player
 

Mr. Porter and trainer Larry Jones have two great colts who are looking at the Triple Crown. I think they believed that Old Fashion would be the one to be the best competitor at Churchill. Then came the Rebel Stakes and Old Fashion got beat. Meanwhile Friesan Fire, winner of the Lousiana Derby, wouldn't want to go against his stablemate in the Arkansas Derby and won't go to artificial surface so opts to train up to the Derby. Who, if either, are one to consider for the Kentucky Derby?:confused:

I'd rather have Mullins, Dutrow and the IEAH guys all grow mullets and goatees while wearing tracksuits in the winners circle at the derby than have that douchenozzle Porter in the winners circle.

i would say friesan fire. if old fashioned runs like his last race he has no chance against the likes of this crop. at least FF has been winning without being used hard, the other horse looked tired. unless he improves saturday i think old fashion has no shot.

Neither is great and neither will win the Derby. Save your money.

But are they worth a key for Place ?

I look at Old Fasion like I did Songandaprayer. Should set the race up for someone but won't hit the board. Friesan Fire was an include until the train up. I don't understand training up to the Derby just becasuse they don't want to run against Old Fasion. He could have run in the Wood Memorial or the Illinois Derby.

Danger To Society?

Friesan Fire can run all today. Either FF will win the Derby or someone more talented will run a bigger race. He should be right there.

Old Fashioned is a question mark. At best he is a solid high-cruiser who can settle near the front and stick around late... At worst he is an unrateable non-contender who is subject to other's early pace.

FF literally has the most distance in his pedigree of just about any horse on anyone's top-20 lists, has been strong in the stretch, and he has a solid trainer.

Anyone can catch a bad trip, or get hurt, or have some physical defect that hasn't been exposed at 8.5 furlongs... You are never sure until after the fact, but we have 3 weeks.

I don't totally disagree that we may not know as much as we think we do about Friesan Fire, but really, aren't all the leading contenders more or less coming into this after "beating up on allowance horses?"

I'm not exactly jumping out of my seat thinking about the fields IWR has beaten in his last two.

I'm more impressed with the way both of them have been doing it than against whom they've done it. Well, and I hate Pioneerofthenile, so I have to start looking somewhere...

Friesan Fire = Pyro

Nuff said...........

Besides both winning races at Fair Grounds, how are the two similiar?

i kind of disagree, he has less question marks than his stablemate who got rundown by a 50-1 shot. thats the question that was asked. if old fashioned fires big saturday my point is mute.

A 50-1 shot that got the perfect set-up.

Basically since they both dominated at FG with average times against average fields. Pyro was exposed in the Blue Grass (surface switch) and FF will be exposed in the Derby. He just isn't fast enough. Both have similar numbers breeding wise with no deep stamina influences in the pedigrees. FF even more challenged on the female side. Any closing kick FF has will be nullified by the pace of the Derby and the extra 3/16's he will have run. I hope he takes plenty of money............he won't be getting mine.

OF way before FF..............

just from what i've seen. FF has been running better than OF ,niether might not be good enough. plus your not supposed lose at 3-5 to a 50-1 shot perfect set up or not(unless willy turns out to be really good). old fashioned is supposed to win for fun instead he used himself up and came up empty. i hope he runs good staurday, because just from what i've seen i don't think he'll get 1 and 1/4. as of now i would toss old fashion before FF.

Pyro = Theregoesjojo

Pyro was 'exposed' by not winning on PolyTrack? What did that expose him as exactly other than a horse that was better running on authentic main track dirt surfaces?

And the Derby is a singularly bizarre event where even if Friesan Fire runs a lifetime best he could be 6th for any number of reasons or legitimate Derby excuses. Ultimately, performance in the Derby is meaningless to everyone but the winner.

I'm not crazy about Friesan Fire's chances to do anything in the Derby, but sweeping the Fair Grounds sophomore stakes is a nice accomplishment and brandishes the colt as one of the very solid and high quality members of this class of 3 year olds.

pyro was a miler ,
friesan fire has so much conduit mare stamina compared to the rest of these horses...

Pyro was bred to be a miler, miler sire and miler damside, and he was a nice miler. Came back and won a G3 8.5f race at CD after the Derby.

Friesan Fire at least has a sire who could stay. Damside is miler types for a couple of generations, stayers farther back.

Shortening the La Derby to 8.5f (done in 1988) made it a less useful prep; all the better winners, including one Ky Derby winner, since shortening required good 9f+ races thereafter to contend. The new fashion of bringing in horses 'fresh' (meaning off of a layoff) may work if the horse has a class advantage or a sport-horse trainer, but one has to question whether it is the best strategy for FF. One would have to think that longer race in the interim, even if he lost, would set him up better for the ultimate test.

A method of analysis developed by Bill Lathrop (I have a copy of his book). It serves as a counterpoint to the Dosage fellows who only look at the sires. He identifies major female ancestors foaled since 1900 and analysed their tail-female descendents for distance proclivities.

The methodology involves looking at the female lines of all 16 ancestors in the 4th generation. If you are using the Pedigree Online figures, you should be warned that Bill has recently complained on our board that the site is miscalculating in some instances.

Can you run a conduit mare analysis on my pedigree?

The ladies say I have a lot of stamina.

:wf

I don't know Phil, I did some research on the internet and you came back as a sprinter.

:mad:

:tro:

Hey she could have said you're more like War Emblem.

I laughed.

sure, came back as 2 furlongs on the turf

I'm going to jump out the window.

Don't land on top of me please.

In my opinion Pyro was exposed by facing a better quality field and not running worth a darn. I noted the surface switch because that may have also been the cause of the poor performance. Apparently, it was a precursor of things to come as evidenced by his 8th place finish in the Derby.

There is no question that the 'sweep' by FF is notable accomplishment. I'm just convinced that his Derby performance will be more like Pyro's than one of the top 3-4 more likely winners.

I believe Friesan Fire is the real deal and I will be surprised if he doesn't finish in the top3-4 in the Derby, barring being stuck in the 1-3 or 18-20 hole, which is obviously a big qualifier.

i find the seven week gap in racing troublesome. the lack of a 1 1/8th race in his pp's is as well.

but i think he'll finish ahead of square eddie.

I hear ya, but Eight Belles didn't have a prior 9f race either, and I think FF is better than she was at the same time and is bred to go longer.

A little tangent on Square Eddie...would it be so wrong to sneak an allowance into this horse before the Derby or something? Honestly, what are those people thinking?

if he's not in good enough shape to run once preceding the derby, how can they expect he can handle the derby itself?
i'm thinking he doesn't run.