Derby Future Wager -- Pool III
 

2009 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3

Thurs.-Sat., April 2-5

1 Charitable Man* 30-1
2 Chocolate Candy 30-1
3 Desert Party 30-1
4 Dunkirk 8-1
5 Flying Private* 50-1
6 Friesan Fire 8-1
7 Giant Oak 30-1
8 Hold Me Back* 30-1
9 I Want Revenge 8-1
10 Imperial Council 20-1
11 Mafaaz* 50-1
12 Musket Man* 30-1
13 Mr. Hot Stuff* 30-1
14 Old Fashioned 10-1
15 Papa Clem 30-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile 10-1
17 Quality Road 6-1
18 Regal Ransom* 30-1
19 Take the Points 30-1
20 Terrain* 50-1
21 The Pamplemousse 10-1
22 Theregoesjojo 20-1
23 Win Willy* 20-1
24 Mutuel Field (“All Others”) 10-1

*New wagering interest in Pool 3

Morning line odds by Mike Battaglia

They were gonna put Proceed Bee on here ... but it would be Monday before Battaglia would spit out his morning line.

Interestingly (to me, at least), TheGreek has put up a line based (again) on the Pool 2 horses. Here it is:

2201 Bears Rocket
2202 Beethoven
2203 Big Drama
2204 Chocolate Candy +2250
2205 Desert Party +2250
2206 Dunkirk +1415
2207 Flying Pegasus +8550
2208 Friesan Fire +1025
2209 General Quarters +10250
2210 Giant Oak +3250
2211 Hello Broadway +7250
2212 I Want Revenge +1015
2213 Imperial Council +2550
2214 Old Fashioned +1415
2215 Papa Clem +4550
2216 Patena +5250
2217 Pioneer of the Nile +1415
2218 Quality Road +705
2219 Silver City
2220 Take the Points +8050
2221 The Pamplemousse +1525
2222 Theregoesjojo
2223 West Side Bernie +4550
2224 Any Other Horse +175

A blank means they are not offering odds. Note that the "All Other Horses" is down to 1.75-1. Makes Pool 2's 4.9-1 look good. The "takeout" on this line is 15.7%, but doesn't include the remote possibility that one of the horses like Big Drama or Theregoesjojo could actually run and win.

There are odds at TheGreek for some of the new Pool 3 horses, too:

2231 Regal Ransom +2850
2232 Terrain +3550
2233 Hold Me Back +4050
2234 Musket Man +8050
2235 Win Willy +4550
2236 Mafaaz +4050
2237 Stardom Bound +4550
2238 Square Eddie +3550

--Dunbar

The only change from yesterday in the odds at TheGreek that I posted above is that Quality Road has dropped from 7.05-1 to 5.25-1. (increasing the overall vig from 15.8% to 18.3%.)

CRIS/Bookmaker still has 7-1 on Quality Road.

At KentuckyDerby.com it's pretty hard to tell that there is exacta wagering in Pool 3. If you click on "Current Odds" for Pool 3, it only shows you win odds, with not even a mention of exacta odds.

--Dunbar

PS--At 5Dimes there are no Kentucky Derby futures up, but at least you can bet on how many hotdogs will be eaten at Nathan's Coney Island Contest on July 4. It's televised, too.

Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - July 4, 2009 - ESPN

Chestnut or Kobayashi must participate & contest duration must be 10 minutes for action

Nathan's winner eats over 62½ hot dogs -120
Nathan's winner eats under 62½ hot dogs -120

I wonder who's bigger? Chestnut or Spanish Chestnut?

Musket Man looks good at 30-1 especially if he runs big in Illinois!!!!

Musket Man has a 0% chance of going a mile and a quarter.

he's now 99/1

derek ryan is a good trainer , if he does win Ill why not take a shot on the 1st sat in may

Couldn't you have written 0.001% chance, just to keep me happy? ;>)

--Dunbar

Musket Man will get 10 furlongs.....















































It might just take 2:10

NT

If he gets in I'm taking a stab with Terrain. Put a few bob on him!

JoJo
 

Could I be the lone one to think JoJo should be a short price?
Help me on this one.
TB

i kinda like him, too... I'll be doing a Imperial Council / Terrain / Theregoesjojo exacta box this weekend along with win bets on each of these (unless Imperial Council wins and drops below 10-1).

Good luck Spyder!!

Doesn't Theregoesjojo have graded earnings problems?

--Dunbar

jojo does look like he is on out the outside looking in.
I think he needs one more good race for the earnings.
Whats next for him before the Derby?
He will make a difference if he gets in.

Hey at 30-1 ill take a chance on him goin mile and a quarter

maybe be so , but all he does is win :D :D

I'm guessing even philcski would put down $1 if he could get 1000-1 on Musket Man.

I'd settle for 50-1, because I think Musket Man has a chance far above 0% to win. I wish I had some of the 80-1 that was available offshore before yesterday's race.

--Dunbar

Are Regal Ransom and Desert Party both still being pointed to the Derby?


--Dunbar

He wasn't going to get 8.5f or 9f either... Horses that run 9f competitively and finish in :37.0 and :12.2 will add a 10th furlong just fine. He's hardly a likely Derby winner, but those that have dismissed him non-stop should probably find someone else to belittle at this point.

2pm Future Prices:

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 40
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 22
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 18
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 12
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 66
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 7

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 59
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 27
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 41
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 80
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 30

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 99
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 11
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 52
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 11
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 5
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 44

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 52
21 The Pamplemousse Julio Canani 10 17
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 52
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other Three Ye 10 17

These three look like the value right now...

Chocolate needs to get a little higher to assure of being a better price here than Derby Day. Dunkirk is going to get in and 12-1 would be OK considering he will be less for Derby. Should Papa Clem win at Oaklawn next week, that 52-1 will be twice what you'll get May 2.

I'd factor in at least 10% for the chance that the horse will not make it to the Derby for various reasons (mainly illness or injury). If I knew Chocolate Candy would be 20-1 on Derby Day if it runs, then I'd prefer that to taking 22-1 today. (Not saying I like the horse at that price--no opinion really)

--Dunbar

Mr hot stuff surely ran better yesterday than his 99/1 odds. Of course he is going to need more improvement to be a win posibility.

Wasn't knocking him, in fact I like the horse- hey, I'd love to see him win compared to other potentials, including the probable post time favorite. He certainly impressed me yesterday more than I would have expected. I just really feel strongly that he's not a 10F horse and could make a ton of money in the "Silly Season" Derbies instead of giving a run and potentially getting knocked out in Kentucky.

Phil,

I think they would be crazy not to try Derby. Look at his fractions from Saturday:

:24.4
:23.2 (:48.1)
:24.3 (:48.0)
:24.3 (:49.1)
:12.2 (:37.0)

This is the kind of horse that can light the exotics at 35-1 by running evenly all the way around and finishing third or fourth. Even though he's not bred for it, think Steppenwolfer or Imawildncrazyguy type performer. Derek Ryan insisted to me that this horse has the type of disposition and action to keep on going at a steady clip. I was incredulous too, but it's tough to deny him about it now. And he's of course done a great job picking spots with him to make the money he has. Having Coa involved is the biggest drawback. He could screw up a wet dream.

jon white called p.o.n the tripple crown winner on hr yesterday..vercurzy rolled eyes and went ..i want revenge

POOL 3 FINALS

1 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin 30 45
2 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer 30 18
3 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor 30 16
4 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher 8 11
5 Flying Private D. Lukas 50 77
6 Friesan Fire J. Jones 8 8

7 Giant Oak Chris Block 30 53
8 Hold Me Back William Mott 30 24
9 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins 8 9/2
10 Imperial Council Claude McGaughey III 20 54
11 Mafaaz (GB) John Gosden 50 73
12 Musket Man Derek Ryan 30 25

13 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty 30 96
14 Old Fashioned J. Jones 10 12
15 Papa Clem Gary Stute 30 47
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert 10 9
17 Quality Road James Jerkens 6 6
18 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor 30 42

19 Take the Points Todd Pletcher 30 99
20 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. 50 47
21 The Pamplemousse SUSPENDED
22 Theregoesjojo Kenneth McPeek 20 49
23 Win Willy McLean Robertson 20 16
24 All Other 3yo's 10 17

he is just getting bigger , stronger , and better each week in training


derek is suprisied at how each week he is improving and doing more

i don't even like Musket Man to win the derby, but at that price i would take a small stab. And since the IWR freakshow this past weekend the bettors went crazy and left a lot of value on the table (highlighted horses i doubt would be higher on derby day)

-bt-

bt,

I'm not sure Musket won't be a HIGHER number Derby Day... And as I mentioned yesterday, that 47-1 on Papa Clem is gonna look mighty juicy if he runs big in the Arkansas Derby. Interesting how much Chocolate Candy came down in the last 4 hours of wagering yesterday too...

Effective KDFW takeout (non Pamplemousse) was 13.1%
 

I was curious how much money had been bet on Pamplemousse before betting was "suspended".

Final odds on The Pamplemousse would have to have been 24.2-1 for the track takeout to be 16%. There was $268,880 in the win pool. After 16% takeout there will be $225,859 for the winning entry. If you solve for X in: ($225,859-X)/X = 24.2, you find X = $8962. That's the amount of money that went down the drain on The Pamplemousse in the Future Wager.

Those who bet on Pamplemousse early (and lost their bets) changed the track takeout for those who bet on the other 23 entries from 16% to an effective 13.1%.

--Dunbar

I thought the 42-1 on Regal Ransom was generous. Is there really less than a 2.5% chance that this horse could win the Derby?

--Dunbar

The day that a Yonaguska colt wins the Derby is the day I quit betting.

IMO, its a little more of a risky bet (not that the whole future pool in general isn't) But Godolphin could wish wash it at the last minute and only bring 1 or none over. But 42-1 is a solid number if you're a backer

-bt-

If I Want Revenge can improve going east and on traditional dirt, is it possible to say the same thing about Pioneer of the Nile? I wouldn't say he is under the radar, but it seems the Santa Anita Derby is the least impressive prep from a chatter and beyer perspective. Considering he is now 11-1 and IWR is 9/2 now, I'd put a few bucks down on him in the futures on him and hope he can run faster on traditional dirt.

I think there is less than a 2.5% chance that he'll run in the Derby.

Sure, but keep in mind the point of playing a future wager is to get a better price than on Derby Day- and I'd be surprised if he's under 10-1.

Good point, I doubt his odds will be be much different derby day. However, that's unless the Haskin effect kicks in, I think he has a secret membership in the Baffert fan club...I don't know as a punter you are always looking for angles, and a month and 1/2 ago IWR would have been double the odds of POTN, Baffert horses usually run better on traditional dirt and this horse is sort of under the radar which makes him very attractive at 11-1.