2009 Freshman Sires
 

We are 8 days away from Keeneland opening day and the start of 2YO racing. Something I've tried to learn more about in the past few years is freshman sires- for example, anyone who picked up quickly on the precocity of the Lion Hearts and Tapits last year would have made a LOT of money. They were winning early and often, frequently at big prices. Here's the list of freshman sires for 2009. Obviously there are some big names (AA, Ghostzapper, Leroi, RHT)... I'm guessing the early ones will be Bwana Charlie, Limehouse, Consolidator.

Additionally, has there ever been two full brothers entering stud at the same time?

Afleet Alex
Bull Market
Bwana Charlie
Castledale
Closing Argument
Consolidator
Crafty Shaw
Dance With Ravens
Eddington
Eurosilver
Eye of the Tiger
Forest Danger
Ghostzapper
Grand Reward
Kela
Kittens Joy
Leroidesanimaux
Limehouse
Mingun
Minister’s Wild Cat
North Light
Offlee Wild
Oratory
Pollard’s Vision
Powerscourt
Purge
Rock Hard Ten
Roman Ruler
Saint Liam
Southern Image
State City
Taste of Paradise
Unforgettable Max
Value Plus
Wando
Wildcat Heir

Found this guide which could be useful.
http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds....%20031209A.pdf

SA has Cal bred 2yo's in the first today. The first baby race of the season.
For success at 2 from your list I'd consider Forest Danger, Eurosilver and maybe Limehouse and Roman Ruler.

Wildcat Heir and Consolidator both have some quick 2yo's. They would be the two most obvious sires that might fly under the bettors radar imo.

Agreed on Wildcat Heir. Probably going to be Calder types though, standing down in Florida.

What have you seen from the Limehouse 2YO's? Probably smallish and quick?

I certainly haven't seen a single Limehouse I'd be that interested in betting if they debuted in an early season MSW race at a fairly major circuit.

I think I've only watched 5 or so of them so far and he has over a hundred in this crop. Still, those would figure to be five of his better ones based on sales placement and that I believe all of them sold over his avg as yearlings.

DrugS, what do you think of Closing Argument?

For what it's worth, here's the freshman sires who had multiple runners sell at OBS March and their averages. From a stud fee/sale price perspective, Closing Argument and Wildcat Heir stick out.

sire avg count
Ghostzapper 175,667 3
Southern Image 175,000 2
Rock Hard Ten 160,000 3
Forest Danger 123,000 4
Value Plus 99,250 4
Closing Argument 93,167 6
Wildcat Heir 70,833 6
Eddington 70,000 2
Grand Reward 67,500 8
Saint Liam 65,000 2
Eurosilver 59,000 3
Purge 51,667 3
Roman Ruler 40,250 4
Afleet Alex 38,333 3

He never ran a single triple digit figure in his career - and he raced for a big time training wiz in Kiaran McLaughlin.

He was actually once sold for just 10K as Jan yearling so he's probably not the most impressive looking horse ever.

I'd be a little skeptical of him. I realize he has a great sprinter pedigree and won his debut at Saratoga going just 5fs - and managed to run as good as anyone when 2nd in a low rated Kentucky Derby.

I haven't been that impressed with his 2yo's I've watched. I know Baffert bought one of them for 240K .. but I wasn't exactly wow'd with that one.

Any thoughts about Purge? Pulpit is doing pretty well as a sire of sires and this guy was precocious and speedy.....pluse, he probably was best as a miler

Will Wando pass on some of his potential that he seldom showed?

I like Purge to do well this year

Very doubtful

Was at March OBS both days - Of the few we went through, the Wildcat Heirs and the Grand Rewards definitely look the part - GZ's, after practically being given away at Adena were a little more appreciated, The Rock Hard Ten's were remarkably on the smallish side, Limehouse's were unimpressive looking.


Spent time out at Niall Brennan's and Bridlewood as well.... the Rockport Harbor yearlings I saw are amazing

Purge was either very good or downright awful in all of his races. Some of his have looked decent.

Hard to expect much from Wando.

I think Midas Eyes has 2yo's this year ... though only 35 of them. Another old Gann/Frankel buy up in Madaglia D' Oro has been very solid at stud.

Midas Eyes won his 3rd career start in the Swale, off a long layoff, in track record time on the old GP track with a 110 Beyer. I think Posse and Whywhywhy were 2nd and 3rd beaten ten and fifteen lengths respectively in a nine or ten horse field. Just a mind-boggling performance.

Both Whywhywhy and Posse have each sired a couple Graded Stakes winners.

All of Midas Eyes yearlings sold like they have cancer last year. Fast, talented, Grade 1 winner by a Belmont Stakes winning sire and he already seems 100% written off before a single horse of his has ever hit the track.

Thx Lauren

Oh know another Fox Hill website for little Rocky's.. Someone get me a vomit bag..

:rolleyes:

That was BEYOND a low blow. I laughed

Very true. Already shipped off to New York. Touch Golds have never sold all that well for that matter, and he's sired some damn nice runners.

Most of the absolutely exceptional class of 1997 has been a bust at stud except for two. One of them has been very good and the other great. Who am I thinking of?

Will Good Reward have his first crop of two year olds this year?

next year

Value Plus is another one who I believe will do well this year. Roman Ruler has about 1000 2 yo's including the great Hostillian so he will have winners. I have heard a lot of good things about Wildcat Heir. Saw some nice Taste of paradise yearlings though most had zero female families. The vast majority of the freshman sires of 09 aren't really cut out to be formidable 2 year old sires. Bwana Charlie may get some fast, early horses though i cant remember seeing any of his foals. I am not crazy about Afleet Alex though he got a nice book of mares first year. If he makes it Gainesway deserves a lot of credit. I saw a lot more bad Eurosilvers than good ones. Grand reward is another with a million 2 yo's and I have seen some nice ones though they usually look they will need more than 4 1/2 f. Darley pushed Consolidator hard though his are another that may need ground. Unforgettable Max is a very well made horse and is a lot cheaper than his brother. Maker has a bunch of Kittens Joy babies at CDT that they have been drilling to get ready for keeneland though i cant see them being very effective sprinting or early. Powerscourt has had some really nice looking yearlings but look like turf and for a Coolmore stallion, there weren't that many of them available in sales. I know very few people thought Offlee Wild was much of a racehorse including me but I think he is a sleeper though i didn't spend of my or clients money backing that opinion. I didn't see a Forest Danger that I thought would make more than 2 starts without the wheels coming off.

He could run donkeys and get them to win :rolleyes:

I gotta think Unforgettable Max ends up forgettable. I like him a lot but just won't get the mares when you have such an imposing (not in stature, but profile) full brother- kind of like Aristocrat will be next year.

I'm surprised you like Value Plus. Screams soundness issues to me. Not the type of horse you usually like.

I've never seen him in the flesh, but Consolidator looked really awesome in the Darley DVD.

I guess they figured Purge was a miler too late - well, not too late since he won the Cigar Mile, but still ......

I'm not usually critical of trainers but I've always had the opinion that Lukas butchered that one. He had some good races in him, watch the San Felipe.

In Value Plus's 12 lifetime starts away from Gulfstream Park ... his career best Beyer was a 96 which came when 5th beaten 7 3/4 lengths at 55/1 behind Purge in the Cigar Mile.

He did run four good races at GP though - including a 2nd place finish in the slowest Florida Derby ever.

I'm skeptical about him ... but he was a 7 figure Jan yearling ... and had speed and all that.

Consolidator's won't need added ground. They look like pure smoke. Two of them turned in joint sales fastest 9.60 1/8ths at OBS Feb. Another joint fastest 20.40 quarter at OBS March. The one that sold for 300K at Barretts with the 2nd fastest quarter of the sale was out of a Deputy Commander mare that couldn't crack a 25 Beyer and couldn't get within 10 lengths of the lead after a quarter in any races. He's this years Anti-Saarland. I can't imagine him doing anything impressive cause these mares he's getting seem to be pure garbage ... but for betting purposes I like him in the early season races.

:tro: :tro:

I can't remember Maker ever doing well with early 2 yo's though i dont think anyone can get Kittens Joy babies to win going 4 1/2

Value Plus is really put together well and his babies look fast. They may wind up with short careers like most UBS and sons but I think he will have a lot of winners. Don't be surprised if Unforgettable Max has a lot of winners either. Winning early isn't exactly the forte of most of the upper crust mares and cheap speed types can often produce early winners who eventually turn out to be nothing special.

How many starters has Afleet Alex had? *Edit, I think he has had three?

The 5th at Churchill today has a filly by him, making her second start (Interestingly, against Afleet Alex's half sister by Storm Cat).

for the uneducated (me):o , what don't you like about AA?

By Northern Afleet out of a Hawkster mare

What about Eddington? Even though I don't really remember if he did anything memorable as a 2yo, I do remmber that Unbridled was a pretty good as 2yo, and the dam-side is loaded with top juvenile performers (Chief's Crown, Sir Ivor, etc.).
On paper I thought Eddington looked like a good stallion prospect. He was versatile (a graded stakes winner on dirt and turf I believe), Unbridled is a good sire of sires, and Eddington always looked to me like he had a good deal of (not always realized) ability.
Does his first crop of runners look like anything?

It's not a great barometer to relate purchase price to performance . That is a very slippery slope. Mine That Bird was a $9,000 purchase and no one bid on Tin Cup Chalice . And pedigrees are much more than just a sire .

one does

Which one?
Is it Silenceofthewind or one who you have?

:)

CD R7 tomorrow ($30k MCL @ 4.5F) has what I believe to be the first starter from Eddington.

*Edited to remove Southern Image.

i thought southern image already had his first winner?

edit~yeah, he did:

Grade I winner Southern Image , whose first winner won in Mexico, was represented by his initial winner in the United States May 14 at Hollywood Park. His daughter Southern Fireball set a track record of :50.67 for 4 1/2 furlongs while winning by 4 1/4 lengths for King Arthur Farms, Michael Lewis, and Robert Masters

Wow! :50.67?!?
These things are too hard to keep up with. Grand Reward has one in there too, he has had a couple starters, any winners yet?

don't know, but i'll see if i can find anything. i just happened to take note of the southern image filly since she ran so quick.


ok, i looked. doesn't look like he's got a winner yet, but only a couple runners so far. that's according to bloodhorse and his stallion page from their site.