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-   -   3/28 (GP): Florida Derby (G1); Swale (G2); Appleton (G3) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28606)

robfla 03-25-2009 02:03 PM

3/28 (GP): Florida Derby (G1); Swale (G2); Appleton (G3)
 
9TH (5:11) Swale S. (G2)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 This Ones for Phil Gomez G K 120 L
2 B Z Warrior Velazquez J R 114 Blk-On L
3 Sabi Sabi Lezcano J 118 L
4 Custom for Carlos Desormeaux K J 114 L
5 Brave Victory Leparoux J R 116 L
6 Big Drama Coa E M 120 L



10TH (5:44) Florida Derby (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Toby the Coal Man Leparoux J R 122 L
2 Quality Road Velazquez J R 122 L
3 Casey's On Call Baird E T 122 L
4 Dunkirk Gomez G K 122 L
5 Sincero Trujillo E 122 L
6 Theregoesjojo Desormeaux K J 122 L
7 Danger to Society Madrid M 122 L
8 Europe Decarlo C P 122 L
9 Stately Character Douglas R R 122 L



11TH (6:15) Appleton S. (G3)

7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Passager (FR) Lezcano J 122 L
2 Vanquisher Montalvo C 120 L
3 Kiss the Kid Trujillo E 122 L
4 Granizo (BRZ) Nunez E O 114 L
5 Bold Start Desormeaux K J 120 L
6 Avanti Avanti Lopez P 116 L
MTO Hypocrite Cruz M R 120 L
8 Cannonball Douglas R R 120 L
9 Artic Cry Leparoux J R 114 L
10 Pickapocket Gomez G K 120 L
11 T. D. Vance Velazquez J R 122 L
12 Fagedaboudit Sal Decarlo C P 120 L

The Indomitable DrugS 03-25-2009 02:09 PM

Nicanor will be about 4/5 in the 5th race.

Sightseek 03-25-2009 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Nicanor will be about 4/5 in the 5th race.

Don't torture us with your avatar!


________________________________________________

Quality Road.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-25-2009 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Don't torture us with your avatar!

Sorry,

Couldn't find one of Joe Tessitore.

robfla 03-25-2009 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Sorry,

Couldn't find one of Joe Tessitore.



Sightseek 03-25-2009 02:24 PM

Switch to that, it's more kind on the eyes!

cakes44 03-25-2009 02:36 PM

Where is Prado? Snagging him this year might be the worst jockey pick in the history of RTTR.

NTamm1215 03-25-2009 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44
Where is Prado? Snagging him this year might be the worst jockey pick in the history of RTTR.

He's in Dubai.

NT

robfla 03-25-2009 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44
Where is Prado? Snagging him this year might be the worst jockey pick in the history of RTTR.

Riding Arson Squad.

ateamstupid 03-25-2009 03:14 PM

Anyone else find it funny that Tabor/Smith are using a $2.6 million horse as a rabbit? Jesus.

robfla 03-25-2009 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Anyone else find it funny that Tabor/Smith are using a $2.6 million horse as a rabbit? Jesus.

yeah, i saw that... why not use a 30k claimer thats a confirmed sprinter

NTamm1215 03-25-2009 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Anyone else find it funny that Tabor/Smith are using a $2.6 million horse as a rabbit? Jesus.

I also find it funny that there was another speed horse entered after all (Casey's On Call). It's even more questionable that they think QR is a horse who may not get an even better trip by stalking the rabbit or rating kindly before taking off.

Team TAP seems to have been following Dutrow's lead.

NT

lemoncrush 03-25-2009 03:22 PM

If Big Drama runs well in the Swale, do you think there's any chance they reconsider their decision to not point towards the Derby?

I know they announced the decision a couple weeks ago as betting for the
2nd Derby Futures pool was about it begin, and it made sense then not to mislead bettors.

But unless they believe it's "too much too soon" or he can't get the 1-1/4 distance, I don't see why not.

Bobby Fischer 03-25-2009 03:44 PM

Danger to Society is kind of an unknown factor in this one. A lot of the 3rd choice wagering will gear towards JoJo, and Danger is arguably more deserving.

Bobby Fischer 03-25-2009 04:45 PM

random facts?
 
Toby The Coal Man's finish last out (37.6 final 3/8ths) was surprisingly fast. To be honest the pace was kind of soft and I'm not too crazy about this horse. It was a quicker time than I expected, and i will want to look at the variant for that day and maybe hand time it. Just a nose margin, but the place horse had a great trip with the exception of maybe being asked a little early.

EDIT - no the time is right , and per DRF the track variant was about the same 21 vs 20. He could save ground all the way. Honestly handicapping the 3rd and 4th slots is moot. This isn't a betting race as much as it is an important prep.

Dunbar 03-28-2009 11:34 AM

fixed odds at TheGreek.com:

301 Dunkirk +125
302 Quality Road +185
303 Rest of the Field +185

A prop:

Danger to Society will finish top 3 Listed runners must start for bets to be action. $200 limit.
321 Yes +225
322 No -305

Matchups:

Dunkirk vs Quality Road Listed runners must start for bets to be action. $200 limit.
311 Dunkirk -150
312 Quality Road +120

Quality Road vs There Goes Jojo Listed runners must start for bets to be action. $200 limit.
313 Quality Road -160
314 There Goes Jojo +130

--Dunbar

Mike 03-28-2009 12:05 PM

Danger To Society scratched

IrishofNDMan 03-28-2009 03:03 PM

Playing a little on Stately Character hoping for the upset, and boxing in a tri with Dunkirk and Theregoesjojo.

GL

eajinabi 03-28-2009 03:45 PM

Florida Derby will be a very nice race to watch but horrible betting race.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:17 PM

too bad gomez didn't ride TOFP in the FOY

pretty nice Swale. I don't know how juiced the track was but they set the track record.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:19 PM

gotta come down

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 04:21 PM

Coa giving Gomez some of his own cheating stuff.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:22 PM

i call that the camel

2 bumps

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:23 PM

got the 1st 3 straight in my pick 6

jinxing by redboarding the link for todays piece on the HANA blog http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/

" From a handicapping perspective, I really like the "Big 2" here. Quality Road figures to go out and cruise along the rail. Dunkirk can challenge on the 2nd turn and beat him in the stretch. I am looking for value in the 3rd slot. Theregoesjojo is a nice horse, but may flatten out with the distance. I'll use longshots Toby The Coal Man, and Sincero for 3rd in tris and supers. I'll also play an exacta with Dunkirk And Quality Road over Toby The Coal Man, and use Dunkirk and Quality Road with Artic Cry in the Daily Double.

Selections
Race 7. #9 Vitruvius
Race 8. #4 Rogue Victory
Race 9. #1 This Ones For Phil
Race 10.#4 Dunkirk
Race 11.#9 Artic Cry
Race 12.#5 Street Talk'n Man"

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
i call that the camel

2 bumps

Yea, he's got to get more lessons from Gomez. Not smooth enough. Be more subtle(fool.)

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Yea, he's got to get more lessons from Gomez. Not smooth enough. Be more subtle(fool.)

true

the Swale shows how terrible Prado did on TOFP in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road still wins that race, but Prado really did a horrible job with a powerhouse horse in an extended sprint. Much better horse as I think DougS said from just off the pace rather than setting the pace.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:34 PM

looks like Dunkirk is getting over bet

Quality Road is going to be a handful with this speed favoring track.
What a stupid choice to scratch the rabbit Europe. A rabbit was a good idea. - Actually a good idea would have been to enter a reliable early speed sprinter... - not a maiden who broke slow in his only race.

You're tellin me this goofy Casey's on Call is supposed to "ensure a good pace" ? Pletcher and Tabor really depending on that? That must just be talk from Nicoletti and co.. because Casey can't be the reason Pletcher scratched Europe.
QR is going to trot to the lead on the rail...

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
looks like Dunkirk is getting over bet

Even if ya like him, don't know how ya take that price. People can't just watch huh?

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Even if ya like him, don't know how ya take that price. People can't just watch huh?

'

Guess not.
Jojo is even worse at 7-2.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:43 PM

Quality Road really scares me on an uncontested lead.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Quality Road really scares me on an uncontested lead.

Yea, trying to get by J.V. in the stretch ain't my thing.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:48 PM

great race

slotdirt 03-28-2009 04:48 PM

Well, color me impressed.

Coach Pants 03-28-2009 04:48 PM

I love to see that.

Go back to Ireland.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-28-2009 04:49 PM

That's about what I expected. Good race from both.

slotdirt 03-28-2009 04:49 PM

Good for Jimmy Jerkens. I see Pletcher has plenty of excuses.

Sightseek 03-28-2009 04:50 PM

:{>: Quality Road

Todd is crying like a sissy. I Want Revenge would eat Dunkirk.

philcski 03-28-2009 04:50 PM

Hell of a performance. JV must have known he had a monster if he skipped the big money in Dubai.

Bobby Fischer 03-28-2009 04:52 PM

no reason to knock either. They both ran big.
Quality Road might be the triple crown horse this year.

Coach Pants 03-28-2009 04:53 PM

Bias or not that's a tough SOB.


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