Dunkirk
 

Dismantling Warrior's Reward - who ran 2nd behind him in his alw race - it doesn't seem as impressive after WR was a soundly beaten 8th at 5/1 odds with no big excuse behind Musket Man in the low rated Tampa Derby.

I realize Dunkirk was hung wide on the first turn while WR saved ground and all ... but 3rd place finisher Sincero - beaten 6.5 lengths by Dunkirk - was beaten 9 by Take The Points and 6.5 by Free Country in his two prior starts. He was only a path wider than Dunkirk on both turns - and considering the way he got shuffled on the far turn - it was pretty shocking that he was only giving slight ground away to Dunkirk through the lane.

Yeah - the 98 Beyer with the wide trip looks great - but that fig might be high. The 2nd place finisher has already flopped. And the 3rd place finisher had no worse of a trip and still managed to get a career top Beyer.

I understand he hasn't done anything wrong ... but this horse has not even come close to showing the kind of talent a Big Brown or Curlin had shown in there first two races.

I hope Pletcher runs his rabbit with him .. the way to bet the Florida Derby is to get Dunkirk out of the tri IMO.

I don't think that anyone who looked at the allowance race would have wanted Warrior's Reward, who got an ABSOLUTELY PERFECT TRIP, back. Why, then, are we using his EXPECTED dismal performance in the TBD as a way to gauge Dunkirk?

And, Sincero was one path INSIDE of Dunkirk on the 1st turn, was probably helped by getting shuffled back at a key point on the 2nd turn, and LOST ground in the stretch run.

If I were someone who thought that Dunkirk was a horse, I'd have to ask you to come up with something a bit stronger.

In Fat Chart Land, Dunkirk has run twice and 'wiped out' the field in each case. I don't know what this means in terms of how good he actually is but it's certainly NOT a negative.

Perhaps you are discounting the alledged lack of anabolic steriod testing at GP.. Amazing how Pletchers walking wounded stable has now become pretinent again.. Shocker

Isn't Pretinent a fertility drug?

Why would I know anything about fertility drugs.. I have more dependants then some mexican municipalities. Anyway drugs are bad

Obama just told me that 95% of the country are my dependents. Beat that.

He ain't no Patena.

good luck with claiming all of them next april.

is Dunkirk brilliant ? = not so far

is Dunkirk overrated ? = by a lot of people

Did Dunkirk face the full effect of 9furlong Gulfstream wide 1st turn bias ? = No, a decent inside speed did not save all the ground , loom a winning threat , get a breather, & force the "outside horse" to challenge a fresh rival on the 2nd turn.

Can a healthy reasonable trip Dunkirk run 9 furlongs in less than 1:50 ? = yes

Can anyone else ? = If he doesn't tire badly Quality Road, and maybe possibly Beethoven on his best day... JoJo= hellNoNo


That is basically where i'm at with this. I know it's fashionable to over-think reasons why a popular favorite who hasn't run a brilliant race is going to lose. And I know Quality Road ran a brilliant 1-turn mile...
Sometimes solid beats spectacular in a 9 or 10 furlong race. Sometimes spectacular milers suck at 9 furlongs. I'm rooting for one of them to run the kind of race that stamps them the derby favorite. I could care less which one, but Dunkirk appears most likely to win here. His normal race wins, while I don't see Quality Road loving the stretch out as "normal" - QR could quit just as likely as he could romp.

At ten times the price .. I'd take either Patena or West Side Bernie over him in a heart beat.

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

Nice Matt!

only North American appearance - 4/2 Ft. Lauderdale

http://www.ironmaiden.com/index.php?...articleid=1098

must be an omen

the problem is he can't use it as a prep in the format you are referring to... he is in the big brown/smarty jones conundrum of one shot to get enough graded earnings to get in the gate. 3rd won't be good enough.

if he moves forward as he should and the jerkins horse blows his wad or fails to be so brilliant..he should do well in the derby if he gets in..hes ped and connections are not junk..

I don't know how much of 'just a prep' it can be, considering he probably has to win to get the earnings.

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

i agree, if he wins this week i'll change my view. but i think its a chump bet to take a short price on this horse in the FLA derby. he has not beaten much but that could change. i look for value not the bandwagon.

I wish I could get odds against Dunkirk starting in the Derby.

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

Let's not forget that Pletcher tried the same thing in the 2002 Florida Derby with Smooth Jazz, as a rabbit for Nokoma. He ended up setting the race up for Harlan's Holiday.

Todd is up against it here as he'd probably like to treat this as a "prep" or stepping stone, but in fact he needs to win in order to get to the Derby. His only other option is to tighten up and run back in the Lexington. That race doesn't usually come up that tough, but a 3 week to 2 week schedule is not Todd's modus operandi.
For still more irony, how about if Take the Points or Al Khali or Join in the Dance end up with enough graded earning to get in and they keep Dunkirk out? It's not likely that Starlight Partners (which has a stated goal of developing 3yo classic colts) would pass on the Derby. (Geez, the same folks sent Keyed Entry.)
You have to assume that horses owned by commercial partnerships (West Point. Starlight etc) will go if able. You also have to guess that any client of Todd's that has a Derby eligible colt will want to go and not step aside so Todd can win his first Derby with another guys horse.

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

Just as Bishop Court Hill was used to more make things harder for Lava Man than it was to help out Flower Alley - who also wasn't a closer.

Same with Lukas running Camanche Trail as a rabbit more to hurt Holy Bull than help a stalker like Tabasco Cat.

The rabbit flatters setup closers like Giacomo, Borrego, and Concern ... and can hurt the stalking types almost as much as the seemingly need-the-lead speed horses.

I agree that Bandini (also owned by Tabor but with Pletcher instead of Biancone) was never a one-run closer. However, to my way of thinking, given the pace that developed, Bandini was nearer the pace in the Derby (a race that eventually fell apart) than I would have expected with the tactics being employed by Spanish Chestnut.

Who goes favored: Quality Road or Dunkirk?

easily Dunkirk

I think its a win and you're in for Dunkirk. ( Unless they go to the BG of course )Not enough earnings if not first. Isn't 2nd place only 150k in graded earnings?

Really? Easily? If Dunkirk is favored, I think he'll be a slight favorite.

I think one is 9/5 and other is 8/5. I think they'd be lower if Theregoesjojo was not in the field, as he'll take a little bit of $ himself.

Dunkirk even money or less.

My thoughts above would mean the remaining horses in the race account for 12% of the total win pool. That might be too high, but without seeing entries, I thought it was a fair assessment.

Being that Dunkirk was favored in the future pool, at least of members of the field, he will probably be favored.

How he was favored in that pool is, however, beyond me. That'll be a good trivia question/answer to laugh about in the future.

forget about the future. i'm laughing now, i'll be laughing even more if he does not win this week. the horse has zero graded earnings and is "iffy" to even be in the gate derby day , but hes a future pool fav. who bets these things? i've tried it a couple times but i would not bet anything under 20 to 1 if i do bet. the first pool had a couple of good propects, but after that the odds are kind of ridiculous. yeah' i'll bet dunkirk at like 7 to 1, when he might not even get in rather than derby day when he'll probably be 3 to 1 or more anyway and you know hes running. i don't know maybe he'll win both and make me look stupid but i kind of doubt it. saturday will be intresting because if hes not first it probably won't matter if the future pool had him at a million to 1. lol

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...d-withers-next

Nice to see some people learn!

How much you want to bet that, if he wins the Withers, he runs in the Preakness? Then we'll see how much they learned.

true that

If he wins the Withers, depending on what happens in the Derby, the Preakness might be a good spot. Remember, alot of the "better" Derby colt that didn't win the Derby don't come back for the Preakness.

It's a smart move. I'm not sure this colt want's 9f, much less 10f in G1 company. I give them credit for not pressing to get to the Derby. If I had a colt like this I'd be looking at races like the $800k ungraded race at Sunland this weekend and others like it. While people are beating their horses up in a futile attempt at making graded earnings, I'd ship all over the place and run for huge purses while avaiding the "best" of the crop.

I'm not sure the 9.5f Preakness is the best option for this guy either. They're making a smart move, and hopefully the horse blossoms throughout the year with the conservative approach.

I thought he ran really well. Shame he may not make the Derby.

yeah..pletcher didn't seem too pleased with the track conditions