Derby Trail Prep Probables
 

KEE-Blue Grass

Theregoesjojo
Patena
Hold Me Back
Charitable Man
Terrain
Cliffy's Future
General Quarters
Join in the Dance
Mafaaz
Massone

Hello Broadway *



OP-Arkansas Derby

Win Willy
Old Fashioned
Papa Clem
Poltergeist
Flying Private
Flat Out
Danger to Society
Summer Bird

Loch Dubh *
Ziegfeld *



KEE-Lexington



CD-Derby Trial

Swale?

He's dead.

Plus, wouldn't he be like 28 by now?

lol

any idea where Terrain is pointed

He's looking to avoid Swale.

4th in the Derby.

Seriously though, Blue Grass or Lexington last I heard.

Not to beat a dead horse.....but Swale has a better chance of being fourth in this year's Derby.

I disagree.

Because he seemed like the only horse to make up ground in the slopfest at Fair Grounds?

I get it, seriously, he just seems completely untalented. Then again, in a collapse in the Derby, which at this point seems possible, I suppose he figures to be in the top 12 somewhere. I just haven't seen anything good from him. Personally, I think the Fair Grounds race was a bit of an illusion with so many horses simply not running.

Nah, actually the Fair Grounds race isn't really the reason I think that at all, I didn't take much of anything away from that race outside of Friesan Fire. Terrain's got just barely enough talent. He reminds me of Wilko in that regard...he can make a lot of money being pointed in the right spots while never winning anything again.

But as far as the Derby goes, I just picture him getting the same kind of off the pace trip as lots of other recent 3rd and 4th place finishers got. At least he's shown he doesn't quit running, which has turned into a huge advantage in recent years at 10 furlongs. You don't have to be that fast to get 4th in the Derby in comparison to the other runners in there...just be one of the last ones left running. Think more Imawildandcrazyguy, Jazil, Don't Get Mad, Atswhatimtalkinabout, etc. None were really very good, but didn't quit running when 17 other horses did.

Or I could just save Hoff's money for a WPS bet on Win Willy and call it a day.

Nicanor isn't that bad but I don't think he is pointed anywhere

;)

I get it, I just think this year's Derby field may be unusually strong, and even the minor clunkers may be decent horses.

That's possible too. I still don't know what to make of lots of these horses, so at least Terrain has shown me that he won't quit. That sort of certainty is more than I can say about some of the others.

I also like that he'll be going into the Derby with nothing but an obscene GIII DQ win to this credit since last fall. Total Jazil.

How about West Side Bernie Andrew?

Wow, how bad was he this weekend?

How could anyone take him after that? He's either not that good ( very possible ) or finished.

Swale
 

Some probables for the Swale.

Beacon Hill Road
Big Drama
Brave Victory
Custom for Carlos
Presto Change O
Sabi Sabi
This Ones for Phil

I'll take Brave Victory for the win.

I figured you kind of liked him since you anticipated him being 2/5 in that race.

I thought he was a complete cinch in the race. I didn't bet him as I assumed he was the favorite.

I did bet the winner of the Bourbonette however.

I felt like I was trying to handicap a bad 10k claiming field for the Lane's End. It gave me a headache. How people thought WSB, or anyone in there could be 2/5 was pretty puzzling.

I didn't think he could be.....I thought he should be.

I was wrong. Very wrong.

WSB seemed like he had a shot to win. He liked the track the other time he ran on it.

I liked Bittel Road and overestimated his chances. Wasn't really a bettable race unless you really wanted to toss the top 2.

The winner was a decent animal and more of a longer-route turf horse than most of these. Bittel Road is probably more of a miler type of turf horse. Bernie had shown good versatility on synthetics.

The track is so bush league with the sand-storms they have going on. The place to be is generally forwardly placed up on the outside. - However the track was playing against speed - so missing the break didn't hurt Hold Me Back. Desormeaux got a pretty good trip.

Prado had Bernie in the absolute worst spot at turfway - saving ground behind horses. He probaby had breathed in a ton of that crap , you can see on the replays that he is running a lot of the race in a carpet-fibre dust cloud. Whether he is any good or not, it couldn't have helped him.

Hello Braodway is not among the noms for the Wood or Ill Derby. If he continues on the trail, it looks like the BG Stakes or Ark. Derby. I guess the Lexington is not out of the question, either, and he does have some grass breeding to suggest that poly might be okay even though Tagg doesn't like it.

Here is some Derby prep projections in Jeremy Plonk's Countdown to the Crown column on espn.com. I think Take the Points and Jeranimo are now headed to the Blue Grass (which should have a large field filled with turf horses with no strong favorite) and Kelly Leak is running Sunday at Sunland. I also think Mr. Fantasy and West Side Bernie are now headed to the Wood.

Who's heading where?

This section makes its seasonal debut this week and projects the key horses for upcoming stakes of repute. These are not firm commitments, merely a mix of my speculation and news gathering.


4/4 Santa Anita Derby: CHOCOLATE CANDY, FEISY SUANCES, JERANIMO, KELLY LEAK, MASSONE, MR. HOT STUFF, PIONEEROF THE NILE, TAKE THE POINTS (or Blue Grass), THE PAMPLEMOUSSE

4/4 Illinois Derby: FREE COUNTRY, MUSKET MAN (or Wood), MR. FANTASY

4/4 Wood Memorial: DANGER TO SOCIETY (or Florida Derby), FLYING PEGASUS, HELLO BROADWAY, IMPERIAL COUNCIL, I WANT REVENGE, MUSKET MAN (or Illinois), NOWHERE TO HIDE

4/11 Blue Grass: BEAR'S ROCKET, CHARITABLE MAN, EL CRESPO, GENERAL QUARTERS, GIANT OAK, JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI, MAFAAZ, PATENA, STORMALORY, TAKE THE POINTS (or Santa Anita), TERRAIN (or Lexington)

4/11 Arkansas Derby: CAPTAIN CHEROKEE, OLD FASHIONED, PAPA CLEM, POLTERGEIST, SOUL WARRIOR, WIN WILLY

4/18 Lexington: JOIN IN THE DANCE, SUMO, TERRAIN (or Blue Grass)

Looks like Baffert is considering a rabbit to keep The Pamplemousse honest. Probably a good idea as there is no other pace in the probable field.

From today's Santa Anita barn notes:

Bob Baffert said he “might run” maiden winner Life Goes On in the Santa Anita Derby. The son of the Baffert-trained 2002 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Vindication won wire to wire by 2 ¾ lengths at one mile on Pro-Ride March 19 under Tyler Baze. Pioneerof the Nile jogged on Friday.

I don't know if there was a chance for Hello Broadway to be nominated late to the Illinois Derby, but that would seem logical.
Tagg said he was going to look for an easier spot for him to get derby earnings, and with his style of running and the seemingly weak field headed to Hawthorne, that would be an ideal spot.

fyi...Giant Oak running in IL Derby, not BG unless Hawthorne turns up sloppy
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...7&subs=0&arc=1

They can pay 10k at the time of entry, today, to get him in.

From the DRF ; Theregoesjojo may still pursue Derby trail

Trainer Ken McPeek hasn't ruled out the Derby just yet for Theregoesjojo after his third-place finish in the Florida Derby.

Theregoesjojo attempted to rally in company with runner-up Dunkirk into the stretch, but was clearly backing up behind the leaders when he was taken up sharply behind winner Quality Road at the head of the stretch. Theregoesjojo was defeated nearly eight lengths by Quality Road and six lengths for second by Dunkirk.

"We changed our tactics a bit because the thinking was we needed to stay within striking distance of Quality Road," said McPeek. "He was the best horse on Saturday, no ifs, ands, or buts. He's got more speed and he's got more stamina than us."

McPeek said he planned to ship Theregoesjojo to his farm in Lexington, Ky., this week while keeping his options open between now and Derby Day.

"I'm not ruling out the Blue Grass depending upon how that race shapes up. Or he could run in the Lexington," said McPeek. "I think he's going to really like the Polytrack. And I still have the grass angle to play with him as well."

From the DRF;Plans uncertain for Hello Broadway

Trainer Barclay Tagg will leave his winter home at Gulfstream this week. But not before he worked his top 3-year-old Hello Broadway five furlongs in 1:00.40 in company with stablemate Seeking the Sluice on Monday. Hello Broadway has not started since finishing seventh as the favorite in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.

"He's going to Keeneland, where there is an allowance race for him at a mile and one-sixteenth on April 10," said Tagg. "If that race doesn't go maybe we'll look at the Blue Grass or the Lexington. Or we could just wait for another allowance race and think about the Preakness."

Tagg will keep a small contingent behind at Palm Meadows until the end of the meet on April 24.

KEE-Blue Grass

Theregoesjojo
Patena
Hold Me Back
Charitable Man
Terrain
Cliffy's Future
General Quarters
Join in the Dance
Mafaaz
Massone

Hello Broadway *



OP-Arkansas Derby

Win Willy
Old Fashioned
Papa Clem
Poltergeist
Flying Private
Flat Out
Danger to Society
Summer Bird

Loch Dubh *
Ziegfeld *

Any Lexington probables with a freak chance that you know of?

Latest... Some changes:

KEE-Blue Grass

Theregoesjojo
Patena
Hold Me Back
Charitable Man
Terrain
Cliffy's Future
General Quarters
Join in the Dance
Mafaaz
Massone

Hello Broadway *



OP-Arkansas Derby

Win Willy
Old Fashioned
Papa Clem
Poltergeist
Flying Private
Flat Out
Danger to Society
Summer Bird

Loch Dubh *
Ziegfeld *

Lexington Probables?