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3/14: AQU; GP; TAM; Magna 5; FG; Rebel; SA
Simply put, I can't recall a day developing and unfolding with such widespread invitation to wagering action... Plan carefully and budget wisely. It will be a special day for many players. Don't get down if things go against you early. There's too many great chances to win Saturday to lose focus.
AQUEDUCT 5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Won Great Classic 9-5 WON Best Value: #2 Temore 5-1 2nd Next Best: #1e Baker entry 10-1 6th 6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD) Best Value: #2 Herald Square 12-1 4th Most Likely: #3 Bebob 5-2 3rd Next Best: #7 Greenspirit 3-1 WON Exotics Use: #1 Alexandros 12-1 2nd 7th: NYB-MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Pocket Cowboys 4-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Big Gavel 5-2 2nd Best Value: #4 Titletown Tiger 6-1 4th Super Add: #9 Brock N Roll 20-1 6th 8th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #11 Miller's Mint 4-1 WON Best Value: #6 B D's Phoenix 8-1 7th Next Best: #2 SCR Super Add: #3 Honour Above Self 10-1 3rd 9th: 17th Cicada (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 6f (DD) Best Value: #5 Love That Dance 5-1 6th Most Likely: #1 Dream Play 7-5 2nd Next Best: #2 Daily Star 10-1 4th 10th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #8 Federal Deposit 9-2 2nd Next Best: #11 Flo's Honor 7-2 7th Best Value: #2 Clonen 10-1 3rd Super Add: #7 Tony the Terio 6-1 6th <$200 P6 Play: 5: 2-3 6: 1-2-3-7 7: 2-6 8: 6-11 9: 1-2-5 10: 8 2x4x2x2x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-6 8: 2-3-6-11 9: 1-2-5 10: 2-8-11 3x4x3x2 = $72 GULFSTREAM POST-SCRATCHES 8th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Greatbillsoffire 3-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Book Says Yes 8-1 5th Next Best: #2 Trusting Heart 4-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Jersey Town 10-1 WON 9th: Palm Beach (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Stormallory 3-1 3rd Best Value: #7 El Crespo 6-1 WON Next Best: #5 Duke of Homberg 2-1 6th Super Add: #4 Lime Rickey 4-1 2nd 10th: Gulfstream Park H. (Gr. II), 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Smooth Air 3-1 WON Next Best: #1 Cool Coal Man 2-1 5th Best Value: #5 Finallymadeit 10-1 2nd Super Add: #4 Bribon 5-2 4th 11th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Crazy deep nightcap and note that virtually ANY AND ALL of the AE's would be useable should they drew in.. Most Likely: #8 Chapin Beach 5-1 6th Best Value: #2 Dr. Smarty Jack 6-1 4th Next Best: #5 Reb 12-1 2nd Super Add: #12 Tizzy 7-2 7th <$100 P4 Play: 8: 2-3-4-8 9: 2-4-5-7 10: 1-4-5-6 $1 P3 Paid $363.10 11: 2-5-8 4x4x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96 MAGNA 5 POST-SCRATCHES A) LRL 9th: The Conniver, F&M-3+, 7f Most Likely: #6 Puskita 5-2 3rd Next Best: #4 Met a Miner 7-2 7th Best Value: #9 My Little Pretty 20-1 4th Super Add: #5 All Giving 3-1 2nd B) SA 4th: 72nd San Felipe (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f Note that Racing Sec. Rick Hammerle believes Kelly Leak is DOUBTFUL and Feisty Suances 2nd is a POSSIBLE SCRATCH.. Most Likely: #2 Pioneerof the Nile 2-5 WON Best Value: #7 New Bay 8-1 6th Next Best: #4 Shafted 8-1 5th C) GP 9th: Palm Beach (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T Most Likely: #2 Stormallory 3-1 3rd Best Value: #7 El Crespo 6-1 WON Next Best: #5 Duke of Homberg 2-1 6th Super Add: #4 Lime Rickey 4-1 2nd D) GG 4th: MSW, 3yo, 6f Most Likely: #3 Undeniable Truth 2-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Kalookan Ghost 7-2 6th Exotics Use: #1 Kings Humor 5-1 4th Super Add: #6 Carbonite 9-2 WON E) SA 5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-DHT Most Likely: #12 Billy Allen 7-2 2nd Best Value: #4 Prince Atlantis 15-1 7th Next Best: #9 Kewen 9-2 4th Super Add: #10 Street Lights 6-1 12th <$300/<$150/<$75 Magna 5 Plays: A: 4-5-6-9 B: 2 C: 2-7 [4-5] D: 3-5 [1-6] E: 4-9-10-12 4x1x4x4x4 = $284 4x1x2x4x4 = $128 4x1x2x2x4 = $64 TAMPA BAY DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 9th: 26th Florida Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Rock Candy 5-2 3rd Next Best: #6 Don't Forget Gil 9-5 WON Exotics Use: #4 Ameribelle 3-1 2nd 10th: 11th Hillsborough (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Backseat Rhythm 3-1 WON Best Value: #6 Mushka 8-1 6th Next Best: #3 Ballymore Lady 6-1 3rd Super Add: #8 Communique 4-1 10th 11th: 29th Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Musket Man 8-1 WON Most Likely: #4 Hello Broadway 3-1 7th Next Best: #5 Warrior's Reward 12-1 8th Super Add: #9 Bear's Rocket 8-1 6th 12th: 5th Turf Dash, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 9th Best Value: #4 Blind River Fox 15-1 10th Next Best: #2 Fort Prado 5-1 8th Super Add: #3 Castles in the Sky 6-1 WON <$75 P4 Play: 9: 2-3-6 10: 3-6-7 11: 2-4 12: 2-3-4-6 3x3x2x4 = $72 $1 P4 (3/6-7/9-2-3) Paid $430.10 (x 2 = $860.20) FAIR GROUNDS POST-SCRATCHES Note that rain appears impossible to avoid in New Orleans today with Sloppy/Yielding reported now.. 5th: Bienville, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (.50 P5, P3, Super) Most Likely: #4 Classify 5-2 4th Best Value: #9 Coy Cat 8-1 WON Next Best: #7 Lady Chace 9-2 2nd Super Add: #2 Taletobetold 4-1 5th 6th: FG Oaks (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, Super) Most Likely: #3 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 4-5 WON Next Best: #2 Four Gifts 5-2 4th Best Value: #5 Flying Spur 12-12nd Super Add: #1 Our Dahlia 10-1 3rd 7th: New Orleans H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f (P6, P3, Super) Most Likely: #10 Honest Man 3-1 8th Best Value: #3 Secret Getaway 10-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Dry Martini 6-1 4th Super Add: Good and Lucky 8-1 11th 8th: Muniz Memorial H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) NOTE: #13 Proudinsky (3-1) and the #1 Frostad entry (6-1) won't appreciate softer footing... Most Likely: #6 Soldier's Dancer 7-2 4th Best Value: #10 Nownownow 12-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Corrupt 10-1 14th Exotics Use: #4 Golden Yank 10-1 9th Super Add: #9 El Caballo 20-1 2nd 9th: Louisiana Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, Superfecta) Will protect favorites in the multi-race wagers but go against within the race; Grab the overlay of your choice.. Best Value: #1 Free Country 12-1 9th Most Likely: #5 Flying Pegasus 8-1 6th Next Best: #4 Terrain 10-1 3rd Super Add: #7 Uno Mas 12-1 7th <$100 .50 P5 Play/<$50 P4 Play: 5: 4-5-7-9 ---------- 6: 3 7: 2-3-10 8: 4-6-10 (8-9-12) 9: 1-3-5-6-9 P5: 4x1x3x3x5 = 190 x .50 = $95 P4: 1x3x6x5 = 90 x .50 = $45 10th: Kenner, 3+, 6f (P3, Super) Most Likely: #1 Kodiak Kowboy 5-2 2nd Best Value: #7 Sok Sok 9-2 WON Next Best: #2 Ikigai 7-2 8th Super Add: #3 Greeley's Conquest 6-1 6th 11th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 SCR Next Best: #6 SCR Best Value: #10 Budget 8-1 Super Add: #1 SCR OFF THE TURF: 13-14-10/WON 12th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super) Most Likely: #5 SCR Best Value: #6 SCR Next Best: #8 Pacific Tsunami 9-2 Super Add: #11 Proteus 12-1 OFF THE TURF: 13/WON-8-3-9 <$75 P4 Play: 9: 1-3-5-6-9 10: 1-7 11: 1/SCR-3/SCR-6/SCR-9-10 12: 5/SCR-6/SCR-8 5x2x5x3 = 150 x .5- = $75 <$75 P4 Play (With R11-12 OFF THE TURF Selections ): 9: 1-3-5-6-9 10: 1-7 11: 10-13-14 12: 3-8-9-13 5x2x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60 $1 P4 Paid $410.10 OAKLAWN PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 10th: 49th Rebel (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f Most Likely: #1 Old Fashioned 3-5 2nd Best Value: #6 His Greatness 12-1 7th Next Best: #7 Captain Cherokee 8-1 4th Super Add: #2 Hamazing Destiny 5-1 8th SANTA ANITA PRE-SCRATCHES 5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #12 Billy Allen 7-2 2nd Best Value: #4 Prince Atlantis 15-1 7th Next Best: #9 Kewen 9-2 4th Super Add: #10 Street Lights 6-1 12th 6th: CLM, 4yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Deep Pockets 5-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Quityerbellyaching 10-1 5th Next Best: #6 High Intellect 3-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Roar of Eagles 9-2 4th 7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-DHT (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Market at Midday 5-1 6th Best Value: #3 Favoloso 8-1 9th Next Best: #2 Silent Stalk 7-2 WON Super Add: #5 Magic Roberta 9-2 2nd 8th: 72nd Santa Margarita (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Life is Sweet 7-5 WON Best Value: #7 Model 6-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Santa Terasita 7-2 2nd 9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Wild Diplomat 9-2 WON Best Value: #3 Pearl Fisher 12-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Cavanal 6-1 11th Super Add: #7 Trumpet Player Jay 7-2 6th 10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (Super High 5) Most Likely: #9 So Pink 7-2 WON Best Value: #5 Misstrailcityzone 12-1 Next Best: #2 I Swear 9-2 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Ivy by the Shore 5-2 2nd High 5 Play: #1 Telatrish 8-1 <$200 P6 Play: 5: 3-4-9-10-12 6: 1-2-4-6-8 7: 4 8: 2 9: 5-9 10: 5-9 5x5x1x1x2x2 = 100 x $2. = $200 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-3-4 8: 2-6-7 9: 3-5-7-9 10: 5-9 3x3x4x2 = $72 $1 P4 Paid $152.20 Good luck! Steve |
saturday
Aqueduct post 2:54
5th $2 Pick-6 $40 $30,000 carry 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 3 2 11 1 8 Magna LP 9th $1 Pick 5 $96 $136 $218,000 carry 6 7 2 2 5 6 7 2 3 5 6 1 9 12 Santa Anita 5th $2 Pick 6 $192 $328 $378,000 carry 1 9 12 6 8 4 10 2 6 7 9 3 9 |
Steve,
The last leg of the M5 is brutal. I missed the show yesterday, did any of the guests have any particular insights? I'm four deep right now and the only horse we have in agreement is the 9. |
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The Hits just keep on coming
Wow Steve...... just stopped in, to take a break from prepping for my fantasy baseball draft, to take a look around.
You are amazing! 'Capping from sea to shining sea. Looks like at least 31 races on your plate. Sadly this is one of the few Saturdays I'm out of action with my baseball commitment. Well I will have my laptop with me and should be able to get on Twin Spires TV for some of the big ones. Hit a homer buddy! |
Wow Steve just amazing,
but what time could we expect the Los Al picks? |
Musket Man gotta keep the faith with Derek Ryan , look for a bouce back today
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I'm shocked that Steve picked Smooth Air.
I thought there was a Grade 1 with his name on it.....and being that this was merely a Grade 2 I just assumed it was a prep. |
Steve Santa Anita Pick 6
Steve,
I think your pick 6 ticket at Santa Anita is $400.00 5x5x2x1x2x2=200X2 =$400.00 |
I love Steve's picks in the LA Derby, an abundance of alternatives here to the favorites.
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Word is only 45 minutes of light rain in the NOLA area, suppose to be on/off rest of the day, possibly dodged a bullet as they should be on the turf
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What a great day. Off to Gulfstream to enjoy the action.
Magna 5 play: (throwing in some bombs that probably have no shot) 4-5-6-7-8/2-7/1-4-5/3-6/3-9 SA pic 6: 3-5-9/6-7/2-4/2/5/3-9 6-12/6/4/2/5/3-9 5-9/6/3-8/2/5/3-9 5-9/6/4/4-6/5/3-9 5-9/6/4/2/9-10/3-9 5-9/6/4/2/5/5-10 Good Luck today! |
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Steve, it's probably a moot point but I disagree that soft ground moves Proudinsky down. He won last year's Muniz over yielding turf and German horses often are used to boggy courses. I think he runs well in California despite the surface, not because of it. With that said, I don't want any part of him from the 14-hole.
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AQU SCR'S:
8TH: 2 Mr. Shortcake Early 10TH: 3 Ten Carrot Nikki Early |
Gulfstream -- Saturday, March 14, 2009
Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 84 Feet Race 2: Jockey Change #2 Jose Rivera II Race 3: Scratch #5 Race 4: Scratch #4 Jockey Change #10 TBA Overweights: 1A-+4 #2 +1 #5-+2 #8-+1 #11-+1 Race 5: Scratch #3 Overweights: #8 -+1 Race 6: Scratch #1A (POE) Race 7: Scratch #2 #4 #7 Race 8: Scratch #5 #14 #15 Race 9: Scratch #6 Overweights: #1 -+2 #3 -+2 #4 - #2 Race 10: Overweights: #2 - + 1 Race 11: Scratch #11 #14 #15 #16 Jockey Change: #1 Manny Aguilar Overweights: #1 - +2 #5 - +1 #3 - Is A Colt |
Tampa Bay Downs -- Saturday, March 14, 2009
TRACK: Fast TURF Firm Portable Rail: at 0 Weather: Sunny – low 80’s Super High 5 CARRYOVER: $0 Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $0 Scratches 4 1 Tarheel Girl 4 12 French Social 4 13 I Love to Say Yes 5 1 Catalina Express (POE) 5 2 Alice's Halo 5 7 Smooth Valentine 7 1 Up Mayo 9 3 Royal Ballade 10 9 Waquoit's Love 11 11 Top Seed 12 11 My Best Pal Red 12 12 Crowned General 12 13 Dukes Flying Tiger 12 14 Mr. Flatter 13 11 Sheikh 13 12 Somes Sound 13 13 Shanclif 13 14 Asgoodasshelooks |
Fair Grounds SCR'S
REVISED.. Added SCR and more possible. SloppyYielding.. Race 1 #5 Cobrador, #6 Northern Scene, #12 Tactical Weapon, #13 Gold Bells Spin, #14 Sultry Approval Race 2 #6 Chief Jay Race 5 #6 Precious Kiss Race 7 #2 Golden Yank, #5 Brothers Nicholas, #7 El Caballo Race 9 #10 Nowhere to Hide Race 11 #1 Devil Dance, #2 Didn't He Ramble, #6 Colonel Klink, #11 Gamblers Reward Race 12 #12 Extreme Warrior, #14 Inflight |
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just saw it on the FG feed, he's scratched.... also yielding and sloppy, what a bummer -bt- |
MAGNA 5 SCR/CHG'S
http://www.magna5.com/scratches.aspx A Laurel 9 Weather: Cloudy, Chance of Rain, 40's Track: Fast Scratches: #2, #7 Jockey Change: #8 Harry Vega B Santa Anita 4 Weather: 70's Clear Track:Fast Scratches: #6 Overweights: #1+1, #3+1, #5+2 C Gulfstream 9 Weather: Partly Sunny 83F Track: Fast Overweights: #1+2, #3+2, #4+2 Scratch: #6 D Golden Gate 4 Weather: Cloudy Mid 50's Track: Fast E Santa Anita 5 Weather: 70's Clear Turf:Firm Scratches: #5 Overweights: #2+1 |
SCR'S CONTINUE TO PILE UP FROM FAIR GROUNDS... 1st, 11th, 12th OFF THE TURF...
Last update from me for a while as I head to Gulfstream... Race 1 #3 Bastille, #5 Cobrador, #6 Northern Scene, #12 Tactical Weapon, #13 Gold Bells Spin, #14 Sultry Approval Race 2 #6 Chief Jay Race 5 #6 Precious Kiss Race 7 #2 Golden Yank, #5 Brothers Nicholas, #7 El Caballo Race 9 #10 Nowhere to Hide Race 11 #1 Devil Dance, #2 Didn't He Ramble, #6 Colonel Klink, #7 Forest Lord, #11 Gamblers Reward Race 12 #1 Oyster Cat, #12 Extreme Warrior, #14 Inflight |
Magna p5
A. 6 B. 2 C. 2,5 D. 3,4,5,6,7 E. ..ALL A. 6 B. 2 C. 3,4,7 D. 3 E. ..ALL A. 4,5,8 B. 2 C. 2,5 D. 3,4,5,6,7 E. 3 A. 4,5,8 B. 2 C. 2,5 D. 3 E. 1,6,9,12 |
Magna
5,6/2,7/2,4,5,7/3,5/1,9,12=$96 |
We'll be getting into a nice series of races soon here at Fairgrounds
In the 6th, slop play with Flying Spur 7th, Wishful Tomcat 8th, Golden Yank/Proudinsky box 9th Free Country Tampa Bay 9th, Miss Ocean City Tampa Bay 11th, Warriors Reward |
My Magna Pick 5...
4,6 / 2 / 2,4,5,7 / 3,5 / 1,3,9,10,12 Good Luck to all |
Magna 5 ($48)
5/6 2 4/5/7 3/5 3/6/9/12 G/L |
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Good Luck to all those playing! |
Good luck with the Magna Steve. You are really going for it! Will be rooting for you.
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She Be Smokin":$:
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Steve, great call on Musket Man!!!
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Steve,
Great hit on the Tampa Pick 4....way to go. As you said had to weave your way today. I swerved to the curb..but nice job 430 smackeroos for 72 dollar investment |
pk4 Tampa
nice hit Steve i'm telling ya the pk6 is coming soon,
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there's that infamous dry humor of yours again.... |
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But it ended up being a very nice afternoon. If you spent the $72 at Tampa you actually got it twice for the full $860 because they paid on the Royal Ballade scratch. But really it was $48 for the $430... Making the appropriate moves to the off the turf horses in the second half of the Late P4 at FG brought back another $400... And I was live to the 5 ($1,050) & 9 ($150) in the Late P4 at Santa Anita and settled happily for the lesser prize to end the crazy/fun day. Was quite pleased too with the performances from a number of 'key' type horses I talked about on ATR this week and identified and played as Best Value types. El Crespo, Secret Getaway, El Caballo and Musket Man all ran big and helped produce many of the day's nicest returns. And Smooth Air's performance was one to savor on many fronts... Caught a $360+ P3 with Jersey Town, Crespo and Smooth Air at GP, but missed the Quad when Reb fell short versus Kinsella in the nightcap. Reb (21-1) wins the anchor, and the P4 pays $5,000... Thought Secret Getaway was a $20 winner in deep stretch, but had to settle for the backwheel exacta hit under Macho Again ($120)... Didn't play Musket Man straight or anything inside the Tampa Bay Derby because I was in the Paddock for Smooth Air, but obviously the winner helped boost along the Stakes P4 at TBD. Was very lucky to catch the Tampa 4 as both Backseat Rhythm and Castles in the Sky were desperate winners. One horse that gave a great effort that went for naught was El Caballo (18-1) in the Muniz. I couldn't come up with a way to bet him right. If the three horse photo puts Proudinsky behind him and Nownownow, it's a big exacta and W-PL payday. On the downside of the day, the Magna 5 and Santa Anita Double Carry P6 were very disappointing. Was blown out in the Magna by the Laurel winner, with All Giving a sad animal refusing to go by Fancy Diamond. It wouldn't have mattered anyway by the time we got to the SA 5th though, as I failed to use Rick Hammerle's suggestion of Smooth and Savvy. That also doomed the SA P6 play of course as the sequence started there. Ended 4 of 6 and mssed the conso trying to single Market at Midday in the 7th. Individual horses that I expected to run much better included Mushka, Hello Broadway, Free Country or any other big price in the LA Derby and His Greatness. Overall, despite a few beats and "Oh no.." moments, it was a great day. Hope all did well... |
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I'll do a 360 slam dunk before he wins any Grade 1. |
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NT |
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